SoFi Blog

Tips and news—
for your financial moves.

Gold

I got a request to write something about the recent fall in gold prices.  Gold had rallied the last decade through a combination of “it’s the end of the world” buyers and concerns about inflation.  These concerns are now getting replaced with expectations for high real rates driven by growth and a Fed exit, and from expectations of low inflation.  Consequently, gold has suffered.  Oil – another hedge fund commodity favorite – has held on to its gains, showing support for some industrial commodities (and supporting a growth thesis – sort of).

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Will Rates Ever Go Up?

We have a healthy macroeconomic debate going on at my hedge fund these days.  It’s about interest rates.  Our chief economist, Mike Dooley, thinks the US economy is about to catch fire, and sees a real chance of 10-year rates over 3% by year end on the back of an imminent Fed hike in rates.  While Dr. Dooley has always been a perma-bull, this recent bout of optimism has me thinking he spent too much time in Golden Gate Park on April 20th.

Under the haze of smoke, they began to shout “10-year Treasuries at 3%!”

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