Peak Oil Consumption May Be a Thing of the Past

BP’s Annual Energy Outlook

Demand for fossil fuel has been on the rise in developed and emerging markets for the past century, but that trend may be gone for good. Earlier this week, BP published its annual energy outlook, which showed that the COVID-19 pandemic may be accelerating a permanent shift away from fossil fuels.

The company’s report last year forecasted that oil consumption would rise steadily over the next decade, and peak in the 2030s. However, now analysts say that oil demand may never again reach 2019 levels of 100 million barrels per day.

Three Different Scenarios

BP outlined three different scenarios in its report. In the first, oil demand will recover from COVID-19, but will plateau in the 2020s because of energy policies and changing consumer preferences.

The next scenario outlines how new policy measures could be put in place which would raise the price of carbon emissions and cause demand for oil to drop by almost 50% by 2050. In the final scenario, consumer demand and government policies could result in an 80% drop in oil demand by 2050. This last scenario would be necessary for achieving Paris Climate Agreement goals.

Investing in Alternative Energy

BP is making big changes to its business model. The company plans to decrease oil production by 40% over the next decade, and to increase renewable energy spending tenfold. For example, last week the company invested $1.1 billion in Equinor, a wind power company. BP aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

The world appears to be moving away from fossil fuels. A decade ago, ExxonMobil (XOM) was the most valuable company in the world, but today, EV maker Tesla (TSLA) is about twice its size. This trend seems to have been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to BP’s research. Because of this pattern, some fossil fuel companies are changing their business models to become more green.

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.
The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.
Communication of SoFi Wealth LLC an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
SoFi isn’t recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

All your finances.
All in one app.

SoFi QR code, Download now, scan this with your phone’s camera

All your finances.
All in one app.

App Store rating

SoFi iOS App, Download on the App Store SoFi Android App, Get it on Google Play

ABOUT SoFi SoFi helps people achieve financial independence to realize their ambitions. Our products for borrowing, saving, spending, investing, and protecting give our more than one million members fast access to tools to get their money right. SoFi membership comes with the key essentials for getting ahead, including career advisors and connection to a thriving community of like-minded, ambitious people. For more information, visit Want an easy and convenient way to manage your financial life? Get the SoFi app. For iOS and Android.

TLS 1.2 Encrypted
Equal Housing Lender