Cloudy with a Chance of Jobs

It’s February and investors are still grappling with some of the same questions that kept them busy last month: How strong is the U.S. consumer? Will corporate earnings hold up enough to keep the market going strong? This week promises some clues, with a slew of economic data releases on deck. We’ll get updates on how many jobs are available in the U.S., as well as how consumers are feeling. But all eyes will be on Friday’s jobs report for January – the first data point for 2025, and the first report under the new administration.

The monthly snapshot of the labor market is always closely watched, but interpreting the January report may be a tougher task than usual. For one, the month was colder than usual (following a seasonally hot December), which could have temporarily affected hiring. That could make it harder to suss out what are emerging trends versus weather related one-off blips. Beyond that, the economic and social impacts from the California wildfires will also be felt for a while. For example, there could be some job losses in the short-term as normal lives have been upended, but the need to rebuild could actually boost local employment over the longer-term.

The Federal Reserve has made it clear that future interest rate decisions hinge on incoming data. And remember, jobs data represent half of the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. A surprisingly strong jobs report could stoke fears that inflation could pick up again, potentially pushing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. Conversely, a weak report could raise concerns about an economic slowdown and push the Fed to lower interest rates sooner or by more than investors currently expect (i.e. two interest rate cuts in 2025).

Meanwhile, investors will also have to digest a steady flow of corporate earnings. While over 200 companies in the S&P 500 have already reported results (including most of the big tech companies), this week still has the potential to shake things up with 136 S&P 500 constituents scheduled to report. Earnings have come in 6.5% above consensus estimates so far, and if that pattern continues this week the story of this earnings season will be one of continued strength for corporate America.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

•   December Construction Spending: Construction data is a leading indicator of business activity.

•   January ISM Manufacturing PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector feel about the business environment.

•   January Wards Total Vehicle Sales: Cars are a big ticket item for consumers, so underlying vehicle sales trends can help shine a light on demand for durable goods.

•   Fedspeak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss the economic outlook at the Rotary Club of Atlanta. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will give welcoming remarks at a St. Louis Fed event.

•   Earnings: Clorox (CLX), Physicians Realty Trust (DOC), Everest RE Group (EG), Equity Residential (EQR), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Tyson Foods (TSN)

Tuesday

•   December Job Openings: A key measure of business demand for labor is the number of job openings, since reducing openings is easier and preferable to layoffs.

•   December Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.

•   Fedspeak: Bostic will discuss housing at a National Housing Crisis Task Force meeting. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in a moderate conversation at an event hosted by the Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California.

•   Earnings: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Amcor PLC (AMCR), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Ametek (AME), Amgen (AMGN), Apollo Global Management, Inc (APO), Atmos Energy (ATO), Ball (BALL), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Cummins (CMI), Centene (CNC), Electronic Arts (EA), Estee Lauder Companies (EL), Enphase Energy (ENPH), Essex Property Trust (ESS), Fair Isaac (FICO), FMC (FMC), Fox Class B (FOX), Twenty-First Century Fox Class A (FOXA), Alphabet (Non-Voting Shares) (GOOG), Alphabet (GOOGL), Hubbell (HUBB), IDEX (IEX), Gartner (IT), Jacobs Engineering Group (J), Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY), Juniper Networks (JNPR), KKR & Co (KKR), Mondelez International (MDLZ), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Merck & Co (MRK), Match Group (MTCH), Omnicom Group (OMC), PepsiCo (PEP), Pfizer (PFE), Pentair (PNR), Prudential Financial (PRU), PayPal (PYPL), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Simon Property Group (SPG), TransDigm Group (TDG), Veralto Corporation (VLTO), WEC Energy Group (WEC), Willis Towers Watson Public (WTW), Xylem (XYL)

Wednesday

•   January ADP Employment Report: This survey, usually released a day or two before the official government jobs report, offers insight into private sector employment trends.

•   December Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity.

•   January S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.

•   January ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.

•   Fedspeak: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak in a fireside chat at an event hosted by The Conference Board. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Automotive Insights Symposium in Detroit.

•   Earnings: Aflac (AFL), Align Technology (ALGN), Allstate (ALL), AvalonBay Communities (AVB), Bunge Global S.A. (BG), Boston Scientific (BSX), CDW (CDW), AmerisourceBergen (COR), Corpay (CPAY), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Corteva (CTVA), Dayforce Inc (DAY), Disney (DIS), Emerson Electric Co (EMR), Ford (F), Fiserv (FI), Globe Life (GL), Hologic (HOLX), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Johnson Controls International (JCI), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), McKesson (MCK), MetLife (MET), Molina Healthcare (MOH), News (NWS), News (NWSA), Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), PTC (PTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), STERIS (STE), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Bio-Techne (TECH), T Rowe Price Group (TROW), Uber (UBER), UDR (UDR)

Thursday

•   January Challenger Job Cuts: The firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks the number of layoff announcements each month by sector.
4Q Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: These measures provide a breakdown of how productive workers were per hour of work and at what cost.

•   Fedspeak: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak on the future of payments at an event with the Atlantic Council.

•   Earnings: Amazon (AMZN), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), Aptiv (APTV), Becton Dickinson and Company (BDX), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), BorgWarner (BWA), CMS Energy (CMS), ConocoPhillips (COP), Camden Property Trust (CPT), Equifax (EFX), Expedia Group (EXPE), Fortinet (FTNT), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Honeywell International (HON), Hershey (HSY), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), IQVIA Holdings (IQV), Kellogg (K), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Laboratory of America Holdings (LH), Linde PLC (LIN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Mohawk Industries (MHK), MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), Mettler-Toledo International (MTD), Principal Financial Group (PFG), Philip Morris International (PM), Regency Centers (REG), Ralph Lauren (RL), Snap-on (SNA), Tapestry (TPR), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), VeriSign (VRSN), Xcel Energy (XEL), YUM! Brands (YUM), Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH)

Friday

•   January Employment Situation Summary: This monthly blockbuster release from the Labor Department gives a comprehensive look at employment, wages, and hours worked in the previous month.

•   February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.

•   December Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.

•   December Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.

•   Earnings: Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), DTE Energy (DTE), FirstEnergy (FE), Fortive (FTV), Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG), Kimco Realty (KIM), Motorola Solutions (MSI)

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

OTM2025020302

It’s relentless. The deluge of sketchy texts and emails about undeliverable packages, unpaid tolls, or suspicious activity on our bank accounts is enough to make anyone bonkers, even when you can spot the scam from a mile away. And now it’s tax season, and scammers are on the prowl to steal our hard-earned cash by impersonating the IRS.

Imposter scams are the most prevalent type of fraud, with about one in five people losing money to them, according to the Federal Trade Commission.

The most popular schemes — where the fraudsters impersonate some type of business or government agency — have become far more common since the pandemic turbocharged life online.

In fact, Americans lost over $1.2 billion to these kinds of scams in the first nine months of 2024, more than three times as much as they did in all of 2020, the latest FTC data shows. The typical loss was $500 to $1,000, and no demographic was safe. Younger Americans actually reported losing money more often than seniors.

So why are scammers so effective? For one, they know when to strike, using major events to make their scams seem legitimate. As wildfires devastated Los Angeles, criminals tried to exploit people looking to donate to relief funds. After congestion pricing came to New York City, people started seeing fake texts about unpaid tolls. And excited Philadelphia Eagles fans are expected to be inundated by offers of bogus Super Bowl tickets.

Secondly, the digital age is giving criminals an increasingly advanced arsenal of weapons to try to steal your personal information. (You’ve heard of phishing, but how about smishing, and vishing?)

So what? Tax season is a prime time for scams. Consumers are eager for refunds and scared of fines, making ideal targets. The National Taxpayer Advocate, an independent inspector within the IRS, named tax-related scams as one of the agency’s most serious problems, citing progressively sophisticated use of artificial intelligence and social media.

Here’s the thing about the IRS: They always communicate through the mail — never by email or text.

And when you get texts or emails from anyone, whether they’re purporting to be a government agency, bank or other business, remember:

•   Never click on links or open attachments.

•   Beware of urgent language meant to scare you.

•   Don’t share personal information such as passwords or Social Security numbers.

•   Reject any requests to send money directly.

You might even want to test your antenna by taking this quiz from the American Bankers Association. (Can you choose which examples are legit? It’s harder than you’d think.)

Related Reading

•   Tax Scams: What To Watch For in 2025 (CBS News)

•   Will Your Bank or Investment Fund Stop a Transfer to a Scammer? Probably Not (Federal Trade Commission)

•   10 Steps to Avoid Scams (Better Business Bureau)

Image credit: Bernie Pesko/SoFi

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

SoFi isn’t recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

OTM20250203SW

Know When to Hold ‘Em

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates steady at a range of 4.25-4.50% at their latest meeting, citing a stable employment picture and inflation that remains somewhat elevated. It was the first meeting without a change in rates since the Fed began lowering rates in September 2024.

It’s important to point out that investors had a lot on their minds already. Earlier in the week, developments regarding Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek caused volatility in U.S. tech stocks and left investors with questions surrounding the competitive landscape. Additionally, a few bellwether mega-cap companies (Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple) are reporting earnings this week and will set the tone for tech earnings broadly.

All of these crosscurrents have already caused whiplash in markets, so the reaction to this FOMC statement was on the calmer side, even compared to other instances when the Fed didn’t move rates.

The market continues to expect roughly two rate cuts for all of 2025 and today’s meeting did not materially change that stance.

A Good Place

All of the anticipation that leads up to a Fed meeting can make us expect that things will change after the meeting, or that there will be some sort of material statement made that alters the course of markets.

That doesn’t need to be the case, and this month’s meeting was a clear example of that. Not much has changed in the economic data since the December meeting, and according to Chair Jerome Powell at this meeting, monetary policy is currently in a good place, as is the U.S. economy.

The labor market is in a much more balanced state than it was last year at this time and has not demonstrated the weakness many feared; in fact, it has strengthened in recent months by some metrics.

On the inflation front, there is still concern over upside risks to prices and the Fed has acknowledged that adjusting policy too quickly or too slowly can have negative effects on inflation and the economy. Given that the Fed has reduced the fed funds rate by 100 basis points since September, the current level still seems appropriate until and unless inflation comes down in a more meaningful way.

Below are the four main measures of inflation, showing the dramatic drop that has occurred since mid-2022, but also the plateau that has been hit over the last few months.

Sometimes doing nothing is the right answer.

Policy and Politics

Despite the many attempts by journalists to ask Powell about how the Fed will react to possible political pressure, or upcoming changes in political policies, the Chair made it clear that he would not respond to questions in that vein… leaving the room with an unquenched thirst for some sort of retort.

I believe that sentiment will continue. Markets and media are likely to keep speculating about how political pressure may influence monetary policy going forward (as they did during the last Trump administration). That in and of itself can drive market volatility between FOMC meetings and in reaction to any moves the Fed does make through the remainder of the year.

This meeting included a message of “steady as she goes, nothing to see here”. As the first meeting of 2025 and on the heels of a change in the White House, I welcome the relatively calm message and market reaction. Now we enter a long break until the next FOMC meeting on March 19 and are left to watch the data roll in. This kicks off a year when I believe fundamentals – rather than momentum and technicals – will run the show. Keep your eyes on the right ball.

Want more insights from Liz? The Important Part: Investing With Liz Thomas, a podcast from SoFi, takes listeners through today’s top-of-mind themes in investing and breaks them down into digestible and actionable pieces.

Photo Credit: iStock/William_Potter

SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance, and past performance is no indication of future success. This information isn’t financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on specific financial needs, goals and risk appetite.

Communication of SoFi Wealth LLC an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Liz Young Thomas is a Registered Representative of SoFi Securities and Investment Advisor Representative of SoFi Wealth. Form ADV 2A is available at www.sofi.com/legal/adv.

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