Cost of Living in Tennessee
Cost of Living in Tennessee
(Last Updated – 03/2025)
If you enjoy sunny days but also want to experience all of the seasons (no shade meant toward California), then you’ll appreciate the fact that Tennessee has about 207 sunny days a year, two more days than the national average.
The mild weather in Tennessee (the state gets about 5 inches of snow per year, compared with the U.S. average of 28 inches) is just one of the draws. The facts that the Volunteer State assesses no state income tax and has the tenth-lowest cost of living in the country are also appealing.
What is the cost of living in Tennessee? Keep reading to find out.
What’s the Average Cost of Living in Tennessee
Average Cost of Living in Tennessee: $42,469 per year
If you’re planning to move to Tennessee, your monthly budget might get a nice break. Why? Tennessee is among the 10 most affordable states, at No. 10, according to MERIC data for 2024.
You could hop down to Mississippi (the fourth lowest cost of living among all 50 states and the District of Columbia), Alabama (fifth lowest), or Arkansas (sixth lowest), but Tennessee is more affordable than nearby states like Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Florida.
So what is the average cost of living in Tennessee? Total yearly personal consumption cost is $49,326, on average, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Here’s what you can expect to spend across major purchasing categories.
|
Category |
Average Annual Per-Capita Cost in Tennessee |
|
Housing and Utilities |
$8,577 |
|
Health Care |
$8,244 |
|
Food and Beverages (nonrestaurant) |
$3,576 |
|
Gas and Energy Goods |
$1,423 |
|
All Other Personal Expenditures |
$27,506 |
That translates to $4,111 in average monthly expenses for a Tennessean.
Housing Costs in Tennessee
Average Housing Costs in Tennessee: $1,110 to $1,932 per month
Considering that Tennessee is one of the cheapest states to live in, it comes as no surprise that the average home value is below the national average. Zillow calculated the average home value as $316,501 in March 2025.
The latest census data and other industry sources give an idea of Tennessee’s monthly housing costs:
• Median monthly mortgage cost: $1,506
• Median studio rent: $1,174
• Median one-bedroom rent: $1,110
• Median two-bedroom rent: $1,154
• Median three-bedroom rent: $1,342
• Median four-bedroom rent: $1,667
• Median five-bedroom (or more) rent: $1,932
• Median gross rent: $1,214
To get a clearer picture of what the Tennessee housing market is like, these are typical home values in 20 major Tennessee cities, according to Zillow data from March 2025.
|
Tennessee City |
Average Home Value |
|
Memphis |
$144,131 |
|
Dyersburg |
$152,594 |
|
Jackson |
$213,981 |
|
Lawrenceburg |
$222,459 |
|
Greeneville |
$228,468 |
|
McMinnville |
$236,143 |
|
Kingsport |
$241,090 |
|
Athens |
$243,301 |
|
Morristown |
$244,719 |
|
Tullahoma |
$271,639 |
|
Johnson City |
$279,301 |
|
Crossville |
$292,242 |
|
Cleveland |
$294,126 |
|
Shelbyville |
$297,276 |
|
Cookeville |
$297,813 |
|
Chattanooga |
$302,628 |
|
Clarksville |
$304,551 |
|
Knoxville |
$351,445 |
|
Sevierville |
$364,935 |
|
Nashville (Nashville Housing Market Trends) |
$429,091 |
Utility Costs in Tennessee
Average Utility Costs in Tennessee: $364 per month
While not the most exciting expenses, utilities are a necessary one you’ll have to finance every month. Here’s what utilities tend to cost on a monthly basis in Tennessee.
|
Utility |
Average Tennessee Bill |
|
Electricity |
$135 |
|
Natural Gas |
$66 |
|
Cable & Internet |
$125 |
|
Water |
$38 |
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Sales, Revenue, and Average Price; Inspirecleanenergy.com; DoxoInsights, U.S. Cable & Internet Market Size and Household Spending Report; and Rentcafe.com, What Is the Average Water Bill?
Groceries & Food
Average Grocery & Food Costs in Tennessee: $298 per person, per month
A major contributor to your cost of living will be your grocery spending. So how much might you spend on food if you move to Tennessee?
If Tennessee’s average annual (nonrestaurant) food cost per person is $3,576, that’s about $298 per month.
The Council for Community and Economic Research, which ranks the food costs in major American cities, indexed Tennessee cities’ grocery costs for 2024, from lowest to highest.
|
Tennessee City |
Grocery Items Index |
|
Morristown |
94.8 |
|
Maury County |
95.3 |
|
Cookeville |
96.0 |
|
Jackson |
96.1 |
|
Chattanooga |
96.5 |
|
Memphis |
98.8 |
|
Nashville |
99.4 |
|
Knoxville |
99.5 |
Transportation
Average Transportation Costs in Tennessee: $10,319 to $19,201 per year
Going to and fro can add up, especially if you have a big family. This is a basic breakdown of how annual transportation costs can vary based on family size in Tennessee, according to 2025 data from MIT’s Living Wage Calculator.
|
Family Makeup |
Average Annual Transportation Cost |
|
One adult, no children |
$10,319 |
|
Two working adults, no children |
$11,942 |
|
Two working adults, three children |
$19,201 |
Health Care
Average Health Care Costs in Tennessee: $8,244 per person, per year
While the average annual per-person cost of health care in Tennessee is $8,244, according to the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis report, what you will actually spend on health care may look very different.
Health care spending is determined by location, medical needs, and coverage.
Child Care
Average Child Care Costs in Tennessee: $899 to $1,398 or more per child, per month
No matter what state you live in, child care is often a big expense.
Tennesseans may get help with the costs through the Smart Steps program.
Want to estimate your child care budget? Here are average monthly child care costs in Tennessee, according to the most recent data from CostofChildCare.org.
|
Type of Child Care |
Average Cost Per Month, Per Child |
|
Infant Classroom |
$1,398 |
|
Toddler Classroom |
$1,099 |
|
Preschooler Classroom |
$899 |
|
Home-Based Family Child Care |
$939 |
Taxes
Highest Marginal Tax Rate in Tennessee: None
Most states and the District of Columbia charge an income tax, but Tennessee does not, according to the Tax Foundation’s 2025 State Individual Income Tax Rates and Brackets report.
Other states where residents don’t have to pay a state income tax are Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Washington, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming.
Miscellaneous Costs
Once you’ve tackled all of the necessary expenses, it’s time to enjoy yourself. If estimated personal expenditures are $27,506 per year, here’s what some of that fun spending might be going toward (costs are accurate as of March 2025):
• A family-friendly day for folks who love Dolly Parton and theme parks can be spent at Dollywood in Pigeon Forge: Tickets start at $92
• Music lovers can soak up some history at the Country Music Hall of Fame in Nashville: Tickets start at $29.95 for adults
• For even more music history, stop by Memphis’s Graceland, the former home of Elvis Presley: Entrance and tours start at $29 and go as high as $250
How Much Money Do You Need to Live Comfortably in Tennessee?
We all have our own idea of what it means to live “comfortably.” Your family size, income, lifestyle, and location can all influence how accessible a comfortable style of living is.
But to give you an idea of how easy it is to live in Tennessee, U.S. News & World Report’s Affordability Rankings, which compare each state’s average cost of living and housing costs to the national averages, put Tennessee in 18th place.
Remember that MERIC views the cost of living in Tennessee even more favorably, finding the state to have the tenth-lowest cost of living in the country.
What City Has the Lowest Cost of Living in Tennessee?
If you’re eager to make a move to Tennessee but are on a budget, you’ll want to find the right spot to call home. These are the three major cities with the lowest cost of living, according to the Council for Community and Economic Research’s Cost of Living Index for 2024.
Knoxville
With a cost-of-living index of 86.4 (roughly 14% lower than the nationwide average), Knoxville is the most affordable major Tennessee city to live in, the council found. From museums to nightlife to fine dining, Knoxville offers a lot of bang for the buck.
Jackson
Next up is Jackson, with a cost-of-living index of just 88.1. You’ll hear Jackson referred to as Hub City. This city is located between Memphis and Nashville, which means you’ll have access to big-city amenities. Jackson is known for being the birthplace of rockabilly, so get ready to meet lots of music lovers.
Chattanooga
The third-most affordable city in Tennessee is Chattanooga, with a cost-of-living index of 88.6. Nicknamed “Scenic City” for the surrounding mountains, it’s a favorite of rock climbers. Family-friendly attractions and outdoor activities abound; the city also claims the world’s fastest internet broadband service.
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With Dolly, Elvis, rockabilly, and barbecue, the Volunteer State offers a taste of the South at an affordable price. If the low cost of living in Tennessee is appealing, you may find yourself thinking about houses.
Looking for an affordable option for a home mortgage loan? SoFi can help: We offer low down payments (as little as 3% - 5%*) with our competitive and flexible home mortgage loans. Plus, applying is extra convenient: It's online, with access to one-on-one help.
FAQ
How much money do you need to live comfortably in Tennessee?
How you define “comfortable” depends on your lifestyle, family, and location. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that an average Tennesseean spends about $49,300 per year. If you want sufficient income plus a bit extra to build up your savings, a 50/30/20 budget would call for income of about $61,700 or more.
Does Tennessee have state income tax?
No. Tennessee is one of the nine states that levy no state income tax. But sales tax is high. According to the Tax Foundation, Tennessee has an average combined state and local sales tax rate of 9.56%, second only to Louisiana (10.12%).
Is moving to Tennessee a good idea?
From a financial standpoint, it depends. The average home value in Tennessee was $316,501 in March 2025, according to Zillow – that’s 11.4% lower than the national figure of 357,138. MERIC index data shows that utilities, transportation, and health care all come in at least 10% under the national average. Be careful, though: The Census Bureau estimates that Tennesseans’ median household income was $67,097 – 14.6% less than the national median of $78,538.
Photo credit: iStock/Kruck20
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SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.
*SoFi requires Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) for conforming home loans with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio greater than 80%. As little as 3% down payments are for qualifying first-time homebuyers only. 5% minimum applies to other borrowers. Other loan types may require different fees or insurance (e.g., VA funding fee, FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums, etc.). Loan requirements may vary depending on your down payment amount, and minimum down payment varies by loan type.
Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.
Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.
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Cost of Living in Oregon
Cost of Living in Oregon
(Last Updated – 03/2025)
From the ocean crashing along the western coastline to the high desert in the east — and of course with all the wacky weirdness of Portland in between — Oregon is less of a hidden gem than it used to be.
But newcomers (or those who hope to be) may wonder how much they can expect to spend to live in the Beaver State.
We’ve gathered all the data so you can get your wallet as ready for boulder-strewn beaches and evergreen forests as you are.
What’s the Average Cost of Living in Oregon?
Average Cost of Living in Oregon: $55,412 per year
Oregon may be one of the most beautiful states in the union, but unfortunately, it’s not one of the cheapest. Per MERIC’s 2024 cost of living index, Oregon is 38th.
Here’s how the individual cost categories break down, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures by State report.
|
Category |
Average Annual Per-Capita Cost in Oregon |
|
Housing and Utilities |
$10,005 |
|
Health Care |
$9,155 |
|
Food and Beverage (nonrestaurant) |
$4,933 |
|
Gas and Energy Goods |
$1,311 |
|
All Other Personal Expenditures |
$30,007 |
Housing Costs in Oregon
Average Housing Costs in Oregon: $1,251 to $2,080 per month
The typical home value in Oregon, per June 2024 data from Zillow, is $490,095 — whereas the average sale price of an existing home in the U.S. is $355,000, according to Zillow’s March 2025 data.
Of course, where in Oregon you live matters a great deal when it comes to the price of purchasing a home. Here’s what the breakdown looks like by city, with home values as of December 2024 from Zillow:
|
Oregon City |
Typical Home Price |
|
Portland |
$541,122 |
|
Salem |
$437,317 |
|
Eugene |
$443,510 |
|
Medford |
$423,760 |
|
Bend |
$666,206 |
|
Albany |
$404,010 |
|
Roseburg |
$331,724 |
|
Corvallis |
$539,345 |
|
Hermiston |
$296,099 |
|
Grants Pass |
$392,807 |
|
Klamath Falls |
$283,426 |
|
Coos Bay |
$336,220 |
|
Ontario |
$342,698 |
|
Newport |
$466,630 |
|
Astoria |
$506,587 |
|
La Grande |
$310,624 |
|
The Dalles |
$385,820 |
|
Prineville |
$455,748 |
|
Brookings |
$462,177 |
|
Hood River |
$678,577 |
Which metro area you’re in will also affect rent prices (spoiler alert: Portland, as cool as it is, is also spendy). Here are the average rent figures, per U.S. Census Bureau data:
• Median monthly mortgage cost: $2,080
• Median studio rent: $1,251
• Median one-bedroom rent: $1,280
• Median two-bedroom rent: $1,490
• Median three-bedroom rent: $1,783
• Median four-bedroom rent: $1,990
• Median gross rent: $1,481
Recommended: Portland Housing Market: Trends and Prices
Utility Costs in Oregon
Average Utility Costs in Oregon: $383 per month
Of course keeping a roof over your head is only one part of maintaining a household in Oregon — or anywhere else for that matter. From electricity to cable and internet, here are the average monthly utility costs in this part of the Pacific Northwest Wonderland.
|
Utility |
Average Oregon Bill |
|
Electricity |
$118 |
|
Gas |
$32 |
|
Cable & Internet |
$117 |
|
Water |
$94 |
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Sales, Revenue, and Average Price; Statista.com, “Average monthly residential utility costs in the United States, by state”; DoxoInsights, U.S. Cable & Internet Market Size and Household Spending Report; and Rentcafe.com, What Is the Average Water Bill?
Groceries & Food
Average Grocery & Food Costs in Oregon: $411 per person, per month
No matter where you are, you’ve gotta fill your belly — and whether you’re into seafood or vegan fare, the eats are top-notch in Oregon.
But how much does the average person spend on groceries here?
As mentioned, the average per-capita grocery expenditure in Oregon is $4,933, the Bureau of Economic Analysis says. If you divide that by 12, it comes out to $411 per month, per person, depending on your appetites.
Again, of course, the exact figure also depends on where in the state you live. The Council for Community and Economic Research helpfully calculates the cost of living for major U.S. cities, usually ranking metro areas by the overall cost of groceries. Unfortunately, only two Oregon metro areas were studied in the latest data, which were Portland and Eugene. Portland’s grocery item index number was 107.2, and Eugene’s was 105.2, which are both fairly high numbers, though lower than Seattle’s 110.3.
To put that into perspective: According to the same data set, a half gallon of milk costs about $4.93 in the Portland area, while you can expect to pay $6.99 for a pound of ground beef.
Transportation
Average Transportation Costs in Oregon: $9,613 to $17,888 per year
Getting around is another important cost to factor in. While major cities like Portland have public transportation resources, there are many smaller, rural communities in this wide-open Western state that rely on personal vehicles to get around. Your exact yearly transportation cost will, of course, vary based on your circumstances, but here’s some helpful data as of February 2025 from the MIT’s Living Wage Calculator based on your family size and circumstances.
|
Family Makeup |
Average Annual Transportation Cost |
|
One adult, no children |
$9,613 |
|
Two working adults, no children |
$11,125 |
|
Two working adults, three children |
$17,888 |
Health Care
Average Health Care Costs in Oregon: $9,155 per person, per year
Oregon is well known for its opportunities for outdoor recreation and sport — which can help people stay stronger and healthier but can also result in costly injuries.
Perhaps it makes sense, then, that the Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Consumption Expenditures by State report estimates Oregon’s annual health care spending at $9,155, or about $763 per month, per person. Once again, your total actual costs will vary depending on your lifestyle, health, location, and family makeup.
Child Care
Average Child Care Costs in Oregon: $964 to $1,580 or more per child, per month
Caring for children is costly just about everywhere in this country, and Oregon is no exception.
The good news is, the exact amount you’ll pay will depend greatly on what kind of child care you’re seeking — and in Oregon, home-based family child care, or nannying, is counterintuitively one of the least expensive options.
Here’s some data from CostofChildCare.org:
|
Type of Child Care |
Average Cost Per Month, Per Child |
|
Infant Classroom |
$1,580 |
|
Toddler Classroom |
$1,375 |
|
Preschooler Classroom |
$964 |
|
Home-Based Child Care |
$1,085 |
Taxes
Highest Marginal Tax Rate in Oregon: 9.90%
Oregon is well known for its progressive social agendas, at least in its major cities — so it’s no surprise that it has one of the highest income tax burdens in the United States.
Oregon’s highest marginal tax rate is 9.90%, according to the Tax Foundation’s State Individual Income Tax Rates and Brackets for 2025. That’s higher than every state except New Jersey (10.75%), Hawaii (11%), and California (13.30%). Keep in mind that this figure does not include federal income tax.
Portland residents can also expect to receive a yearly bill for the Portland Arts Tax, a special fund that goes to support schoolteachers and arts-focused nonprofits in the state’s capital.
The bright side? There’s no sales tax in Oregon — even when you order things online from out of state.
Miscellaneous Costs
Enough of the pedestrian stuff. How much does it cost to have fun in Oregon?
As was touched on in the first section, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates the average per-capita personal expenditures in Oregon at $30,007 per year (what you spend after housing, food, health care, etc.). While the specifics depend on where you are and what you’re into, here’s where some of that dough might be going (costs accurate as of March 2025).
• Entrance fee to Crater Lake National Park, home of the deepest lake in America: $30 per vehicle for a seven-day pass in the summer ($20 in winter).
• Entry to the Portland Art Museum, the seventh-oldest in the United States: $25 per adult; children 17 and under get in free.
• A “Voodoo dozen” at Voodoo Donut in Portland: 13 donuts in their iconic pink bakery box, $29.50.
• Lift tickets to ski on Mount Bachelor: Starting at $99 (online) for a full-day adult pass, though it varies by day.
• Cheese curds at the TIllamook Creamery Cafe in Tillamook: $12 for fried cheddar delights. (A self-guided tour of the creamery is free.)
Of course, in a state known for its natural beauty, there are many wonderful recreation opportunities that are free of charge — or close to it. The vast network of hiking trails around Mount Hood and the Columbia River Gorge are generally free to enter, though you may need to purchase a parking pass depending on where the trailhead is, and permits may be required on popular trails during the high season.
Wandering along many of Oregon’s stunning beaches is also free (not counting the seafood you’re likely to enjoy while you visit the area), and Portland is known for its many well-manicured, free-to-enter parks, including 5,200-acre Forest Park, one of the largest urban green spaces in the nation.
Recommended: What Are the Average Monthly Expenses for One Person?
How Much Money Do You Need to Live Comfortably in Oregon?
Definitions of “comfortable” vary, so it’s impossible to say how much money you’d need to earn to feel comfortable in Oregon (or anywhere else, for that matter).
But all things considered, Oregon is a fairly spendy state by any reckoning: U.S. News and World Report Affordability Ranking, ranks it 40th, on a scale from most to least affordable. MERIC positioned it two below at 38th, which is to say: Living comfortably in Oregon will likely require a decent income, or some budgetary creativity.
Of course, you can tip the scale in your favor by choosing a city with a lower cost of living.
What City Has the Lowest Cost of Living in Oregon?
While the Council for Community and Economic Research only studied the Portland and Eugene metro areas in its latest cost of living index, good data exists on which Oregon cities have relatively low housing costs — which is, after all, one of the largest budget line items for most families.
According to 2024 data from Zillow, homes are costliest in Bend ($666,206), Portland ($541,122), and Hood River ($678,577) and least costly in the following three towns.
Klamath Falls
A drop-dead gorgeous city straddling two epic bodies of water, Klamath Falls is nestled right at the place where Upper Klamath Lake starts pouring itself into the Klamath River, which eventually runs all the way west to the Pacific Ocean at Klamath, California. You don’t have to go that far at all, however, to enjoy the epic view: The lake offers deep blues offset by the high desert landscape, and it’s even more beautiful when it’s rimmed in snow.
With a population of nearly 22,000, Klamath Falls is large enough to offer whatever resources you need but small enough to be comfortable — especially since the average home costs only $283,426.That’s less than half of the average home price in Portland … and you won’t have to deal with I-5 traffic.
Hermiston
In Hermiston, the average home value is $296,099, just slightly higher than the lowest city on our list. Located just south of the Columbia River, at the junction of I-84 and Highway 395, Hermiston is the largest city in eastern Oregon with 19,500 residents by last census estimate. Nearby Hat Rock was a landmark first journaled about by Lewis and Clark, and is now a state park. Known for its agriculture, Hermiston is famous for a special crop: watermelons. It’s now known as the Watermelon Capital of the World.
La Grande
Situated in the northeastern quadrant of Oregon, where the lush vegetation of the Columbia River Valley gives way to the sprawling high desert of the eastern part of the state, La Grande has the lowest-priced houses in the state, Zillow’s data shows. The average home in La Grande goes for about $310,624, the company says.
La Grande has excellent access to both the Umatilla National Forest and the Wallowa Mountains, both highly sought-out recreational zones for all manner of Oregon outdoors folk. It’s also home to Eastern Oregon University, which means that residents can bank on plenty of music, art, and culture making its way through town.
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The cost of living in Oregon? Not low in Portland and Bend, but fairly low in some small towns. The state’s natural beauty might be calling you west on your own version of the Oregon Trail to look for a new home.
Looking for an affordable option for a home mortgage loan? SoFi can help: We offer low down payments (as little as 3% - 5%*) with our competitive and flexible home mortgage loans. Plus, applying is extra convenient: It's online, with access to one-on-one help.
Photo credit: iStock/AndreyGatash
SoFi Mortgages
Terms, conditions, and state restrictions apply. Not all products are available in all states. See SoFi.com/eligibility-criteria for more information.
SoFi Loan Products
SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.
*SoFi requires Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) for conforming home loans with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio greater than 80%. As little as 3% down payments are for qualifying first-time homebuyers only. 5% minimum applies to other borrowers. Other loan types may require different fees or insurance (e.g., VA funding fee, FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums, etc.). Loan requirements may vary depending on your down payment amount, and minimum down payment varies by loan type.
Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.
Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.
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Liz Looks at: Thoughts on Earnings Season
Mind Your Margins
With most economic data releases on hold due to the government shutdown, company earnings may have even more of an impact on market direction than usual. And as we get ready to kick off the third-quarter earnings season, it’s expected to bring another strong set of results.
One of the datasets that will be critical to watch — not only this earnings season but in the quarters to come — is profit margins (i.e. revenue minus costs). There has been a persistent debate among investors around the possible effect of tariffs on company results, and this is the quarter when we may start to get a clearer view of whether they’re taking a bite out of margins.
Coming into earnings season, margins are slightly above trend for the S&P 500. That’s certainly a strong starting point, and provides a decent buffer to absorb any compression due to tariffs.
S&P 500 Profit Margin
From a sector perspective, some of the strongest margins are expected to come from technology and communications, which would offer more fundamental support for their strong performance year-to-date. Coming in closely behind those two is the financials sector, which has performed well this year but could still have room to run as investors seek opportunities outside the AI-driven sectors.
Although one would expect tariffs to impact the goods sectors outside of technology, communications, and financials, the health of margins from a broad index perspective sets us up to remain steady in the face of those possible headwinds.
The Usual Suspects and One Dark Horse
Once again, the story for the third quarter is expected to highlight technology stocks as the earnings leaders. Year-over-year growth is expected to come in at 30%, far above any other sector in the index.
When we look at things for full year 2025, the “usual suspects” — technology and communications — are expected to be the standouts, with 21% and 18% earnings growth, respectively. The “dark horse” is health care, which is expected to have the third-best growth for the year (higher than the broad index earnings growth), despite unimpressive growth in the third quarter. For a sector that’s only returned 6.6% YTD (most of which has come in the last month), it could offer solid opportunity as the fundamental story shows signs of life.
Consensus EPS Growth
The major market moving headlines of earnings season continue to revolve around forward guidance, and more specifically, guidance on AI-related spending from technology companies.
If the trend below continues at this clip, we should expect to hear about more and more spending at least through 2026. The tricky part about interpreting those messages is that the growth rate in spending is expected to slow in 2026 to only 21%. That could shift the focus onto profits generated from said spending, but is more likely to be a topic later this year or early next. As we get guidance for the remainder of this year, I’d expect the spending spree to remain intact.
Hyperscaler CapEx Consensus
Cues from Quality
Since the volatility in April of this year, low-quality stocks have outperformed high-quality stocks by 14%. That comes as no surprise since markets have enjoyed a risk-on rally for the last few months, with the S&P 500 +35% since the low on April 8.
There’s no telling how long the rally will go on, but it’s important to note the typically inverse relationship between low-quality stock outperformance and earnings growth. When earnings are strong and rising, low-quality stocks tend to outperform high-quality stocks. But as we know, markets tend to sniff things out slightly ahead of an actual trend change.
The chart below shows high-quality versus low-quality performance (red/blue line) and S&P 500 earnings (black). We’re in a period where earnings have been very strong, and low quality stocks are winning. If and when the market sniffs out a weakening earnings trend, I would expect to see high quality stocks start to perk up. That hasn’t happened yet, but it’s something to keep a pulse on through earnings season and beyond.
Quality Factor Inversely Correlated With Earnings
In conclusion, third-quarter earnings season looks to be another set of strong results with companies likely surpassing expectations broadly. If that ends up being the case, the rally has further support and the already high valuations of many stocks can remain high. At some point, spending is likely to slow and guidance may become more muted. Also at some point, earnings may soften and markets will need to digest a slower pace of growth. I don’t expect either of those to ring true for the third quarter, so the optimism in markets is likely to stick.
Want more insights from Liz? The Important Part: Investing With Liz Thomas, a podcast from SoFi, takes listeners through today’s top-of-mind themes in investing and breaks them down into digestible and actionable pieces.
SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance, and past performance is no indication of future success. This information isn’t financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on specific financial needs, goals and risk appetite.
Communication of SoFi Wealth LLC an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Liz Thomas is a Registered Representative of SoFi Securities and Investment Advisor Representative of SoFi Wealth. Form ADV 2A is available at www.sofi.com/legal/adv.
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