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You have a lot of influence over your money — maybe more than you realize. But macroeconomic forces play a big role too, and you can’t control the job market, the stock market, or what the government does. All you can do is be prepared and ready to adapt.
So what is the economic outlook for 2026? Economists and investment strategists are making their best guesses, despite lots of variables at play. Here’s where we stand as we start the year, and what six of their most significant predictions mean for you.
1. The job market will continue to be uninspiring
To put it lightly, 2025 wasn’t the best year in the job market. Hiring slowed dramatically (especially for college grads) as companies grew more cautious after the pandemic hiring boom, tightening their belts amid inflation, tariffs, and the proliferation of AI, according to data from the career placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The total number of U.S. workers stopped growing in any meaningful way, and as of November, the number of announced layoffs was accelerating and the unemployment rate had ticked up to 4.6% — the highest for any month since 2021 (though still lower than it was for big chunks of the 2000s and 2010s).
This year, the job market isn’t expected to get much better, but it may not get much worse either. Many economists predict the unemployment rate will hold fairly steady (and may have already peaked) and the job market will remain fairly stagnant, with limited net gains.
What it means for you: While there probably won’t be a ton of new job opportunities this year, it’s not clear the scope of layoffs will get any worse.
If you’re worried you might lose your job, building a strong safety net can go a long way to easing anxiety. And if you’ve lost your job, don’t lose heart. The right strategies can help you bounce back even stronger.
2. AI will drive the stock market again
The excitement around AI ultimately won out over the tariff fears that weighed on stocks in early 2025, driving double-digit gains in major U.S. indexes last year, including a 21% increase in the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
The increases were propelled by massive investments in AI, and the big question for 2026 is whether that momentum will continue. Stock prices are high relative to earnings, and technology behemoths like Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet (Google), have a heavy influence on the broader market.
“As markets stand on the doorstep of what could be the fourth year of AI-driven optimism, it’s natural to be on the lookout for obvious signs of stress or fatigue in the rally,” Liz Thomas, SoFi’s Head of Investment Strategy, wrote in December. “For what it’s worth, we toiled over the same thing at the end of 2024, only to watch 2025 produce strong earnings growth, improved guidance, and another year of healthy returns.”
While it’s hard to know if and when the AI boom could backfire, technology is still expected to be the top producer of earnings growth in 2026, leaving more room for stocks to rise, according to Thomas.
What it means for you: The case for a bear market may be building, but many expect the stock market to remain a source of strength in 2026.
Still, as AI drives a paradigm shift, it’s important to stay vigilant about the risks of overestimating its power. As SoFi’s Thomas points out, “investors are starting to cover their eyes as stocks continue to rise.”
Investing in a mix of asset classes (e.g. gold or real estate), industries, or geographies diversifies your holdings and reduces your exposure.
3. Inflation may get worse before it gets better
Despite the sweeping tariffs imposed on imports last year, the monthly inflation rate never exceeded 3%, according to the Consumer Price Index. But economists at J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley say the cost of tariffs may still be making their way to consumers, and inflation could temporarily reheat in the first quarter or half of this year.
Zooming out, however, forecasts show inflation cooling, moving farther away from the 6%-9% range triggered by the pandemic and perhaps even reaching the Fed’s 2% target by the end of the year.
What it means for you: The sticker shock of 2021 and 2022 is over, but on the whole, consumer prices are still a lot higher than they were before the pandemic and continue to rise. The thing is, some inflation is normal and what’s most important to your bottom line is whether prices are rising faster than your wages. (An online calculator like this can tell you.)
Inflation erodes your purchasing power, so putting your money into investments or a high-yield savings account can help you counter the effects. (SoFi can help with both.) Keep in mind, too, that a lot will depend on what happens with tariffs and benchmark interest rates.
4. If anything, interest rates will go down a bit more
Speaking of interest rates, the Federal Reserve may keep cutting its benchmark rate — but only if inflation is tame enough. The central bank lowered the rate by 1.75 percentage points over the past 16 months, and further cuts will depend largely on what happens with inflation as well as unemployment. (Lowering the rate can encourage job creation, raising it can fight inflation.)
Another factor could be who replaces Jerome Powell as chair of the Fed when his term is up in May. (The president, who will nominate the replacement, has been outspoken about wanting lower rates.)
What it means for you: The Fed’s benchmark directly or indirectly influences the rates we pay on all sorts of loans, including credit card balances, auto loans, and mortgages. But it’s unclear how much further the Fed will go this year, and borrowing costs are still a major strain on many Americans. (With the exception of the last three years, the benchmark is still higher than it’s been since 2008.)
In the meantime, there’s a plus side to high rates: the earning potential of a high-yield savings account. And keep in mind that your credit score plays a big role in interest rates, regardless of the macroeconomics. In fact, building up your credit score can potentially save you thousands of dollars over the life of a loan. (Use this FICO® calculator to make real comparisons.)
5. Buying a house won’t feel (quite) as expensive
Between the pandemic price bloat and the subsequent spike in borrowing costs, the housing market hasn’t exactly been welcoming to prospective buyers the past couple of years.
But buyers may start to get more breathing room, with 30-year mortgage rates likely to stay in the low 6% range (the lowest they’ve been in over a year) and paychecks able to keep up with any modest increases in property prices, according to housing economists.
“The Great Housing Reset will be a yearslong period of gradual increases in home sales and normalization of prices as affordability gradually improves,” Redfin economists wrote last month. It will start this year “with incomes rising faster than home prices for a prolonged period for the first time since the Great Recession era.”
What it means for you: Housing isn’t going to suddenly feel affordable, but things will be moving in the right direction if you’ve been priced out of the market thus far. At the same time, financing is probably not going to get much cheaper, with 30-year mortgage rates about as low as they’re going to get for the next few years, according to forecasts from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
If you’re eager to sell a house, you may lose a bit of negotiating power, but there will be more potential buyers and prices will hold, fortifying the equity you’ve built in your home.
6. Tax relief could lift consumer confidence
Given much of what we’ve just mentioned — and the longest-ever government shutdown last fall — many Americans haven’t been feeling good about their own pocketbooks or business conditions.
Confidence weakened for the fifth consecutive month in December, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. And the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment, while up slightly between November and December, was still 29% lower than a year ago.
But how we feel doesn’t always translate into what we do, and data shows the average consumer is still spending money, albeit it more cautiously — and without adding credit card debt, according to Morning Consult. Plus, tax breaks passed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year are expected to provide a tailwind for the economy come tax time.
What it means for you: You don’t need anyone else to tell you how you’re doing financially, but it is helpful to know how the broader economic trends are landing for the rest of the country, especially if you own a business.
Consumer spending among higher earners should continue to be a bright spot, economists say, while OBBBA tax breaks will primarily benefit lower and middle-income consumers, including seniors and tipped workers. One estimate shows the average 2025 tax refund rising roughly $700 to $3,800.
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