SoFi

Private label credit cards are a particular kind of credit card that’s typically only good at one specific store. Some stores or other merchants offer private label credit cards to give better terms to certain customers than they might otherwise be able to offer. Many merchants also provide these cards as an incentive for customers to spend more, since they can potentially defer payment and/or earn loyalty rewards.

These perks are among the reasons why private label credit cards are popular. But before you start thinking about how to get a private label credit card, it’s important to consider their pros and cons.

Recommended: Can You Buy Crypto With a Credit Card

What Is a Private Label Credit Card?

Also called a store credit card or a closed loop credit card, private label credit cards are credit cards that can only be used at one particular store or merchant.

Generally, a merchant’s private label credit card is partnered with and issued by a third-party financial institution, such as a bank. These institutions act as private label credit card issuers, and they’re responsible for funding the credit line and collecting all payments.

Recommended: Tips for Using a Credit Card Responsibly

How Do Private Label Credit Cards Work?

If you understand how credit cards work, you’ll know they usually can be used anywhere the processor (often Visa or Mastercard) is accepted. In contrast, private label cards are intended for use only at the store or merchant where they are issued.

In other respects, private label cards work in much the same way as traditional credit cards. These cards offer a revolving line of credit that cardholders can borrow against, up to their predetermined credit limit. It’s necessary to make at least a minimum credit card payment to avoid a late payment fee. Balances that carry over from month to month will accrue interest.

Recommended: What is the Average Credit Card Limit

Getting a Private Label Credit Card

In most cases, the easiest way to get a private label credit card is to apply at the store that’s issuing or sponsoring the private label credit card. Many stores offer incentives for applying for their private label card while you’re shopping in the store. You also may be able to sign up for a private label card on the store’s website.

But even if you can get one, should you get a private label credit card? Choosing a credit card depends on your specific financial situation. However, if you have sufficient income and strong credit, you may be able to get a traditional credit card that may offer rewards and more flexibility than a private label card that’s only good at one store may provide.

Recommended: Does Applying For a Credit Card Hurt Your Credit Score

How to Set up a Private Label Credit Card

Because banks or other financial services companies serve as the credit card issuers for most private label credit cards, you’ll likely be familiar with the setup process if you’ve ever had any other credit card.

Once you’ve applied for and been approved for a private label credit card — assuming you met the credit card requirements — you’ll typically go through the process of setting up your card. You’ll want to make sure to log in to your online account, review your statements, and set up payments.

Recommended: When Are Credit Card Payments Due

Benefits of Private Label Credit Cards

Wondering why are private label credit cards popular? Here are some of the upsides of these types of credit cards:

•   Easier to qualify for: Private label credit cards are often thought of as being easier to get approved for than general purpose credit cards. So if you don’t have an excellent credit history, you may consider a private label credit card as a way to help build your credit.

•   Earn rewards and other benefits: Another benefit of private label credit cards is that stores often use them to build loyalty with their best customers. This might include offering rewards, loyalty points, or even nixing the credit card annual fee some cards have.

Drawbacks of Private Label Credit Cards

Even if the pros of private label credit cards may seem enticing, it’s also important to account for the downsides. These include:

•   Lack of flexibility in use: The biggest drawback of a private label credit card is that it typically can only be used at one specific store or merchant. The lack of flexibility means that it is difficult for a private label credit card to be your only or main credit card.

•   Potentially higher APRs: Another potential drawback is that many private label cards have annual percentage rates, or APRs. Make sure you read the terms and conditions before signing up for a private label credit card to ensure you know the consequences of carrying a balance. Otherwise, you could end paying exorbitant interest — which is how credit card companies make money.

Recommended: How to Avoid Interest On a Credit Card

Private Label vs General Purpose Credit Cards

As you can see, slightly different credit card rules apply to private label credit cards. Here are the major differences to keep in mind when comparing a private label card to a general purpose credit card:

Private Label Credit Cards	General Purpose Credit Cards
Can usually only be used at one store or merchant	Can be used anywhere the issuer (e.g. Visa, Mastercard, etc.) is accepted
Only offers store-specific rewards or perks	May offer cash back or travel rewards on every purchase
Generally are easier to get approved for than traditional credit cards	Often more difficult to get approved for than private label cards

Private Label vs Co-Branded Credit Cards

Some merchants offer a co-branded credit card that offers specific perks for their particular store but is issued by a major credit card processor (i.e., Visa or Mastercard). This means that you can also use the co-branded credit card at other merchants. As one example, Old Navy and Barclays offer the Navyist Rewards Mastercard, which offers Old Navy perks but can also be used anywhere that Mastercard is accepted.

Here’s a breakdown of the key differences to keep in mind to distinguish between private label credit cards and co-branded credit cards:

Private Label Credit Cards	Co-Branded Credit Cards
Can usually only be used at one store or merchant	Can be used anywhere the issuer (e.g. Visa, Mastercard) is accepted
Only offers store-specific rewards or perks	Also offers store-specific rewards or perks but can also offer rewards on purchases at other merchants
Generally are easier to be approved for than traditional credit cards	Often more difficult to be approved for than private label cards

Alternatives to Private Label Credit Cards

Two alternatives to private label credit cards are general purpose credit cards and co-branded credit cards. Here’s what you need to know about each of those other options as you’re deciding which type of card is right for you:

•   General purpose credit cards are what you probably think of when you think of a credit card. These cards can be used anywhere that processing network, such as Visa or Mastercard, is accepted.

•   Co-branded credit cards are cards that share branding between a bank or credit card issuer and another merchant or company. Examples include airline or hotel credit cards or the credit cards of some retail stores. With a co-branded credit card, you can also use the card anywhere the processing network is accepted, and you’ll often earn brand-specific perks on every purchase.

Recommended: What is a Charge Card

The Takeaway

A private label credit card is a type of credit card that can typically only be used at one particular store or merchant. Many merchants use private label cards as a way to incentivize and reward their most loyal shoppers. It can also motivate shoppers to spend more, since they have the convenience of a credit card and can defer payments to a later date.

While it may sometimes be easier to get approved for private label credit cards, if your credit and income support it, you may be better off with a cash-back rewards credit card like the SoFi Credit Card.

The SoFi Credit Card offers unlimited 2% cash back on all eligible purchases. There are no spending categories or reward caps to worry about.¹

Take advantage of this offer by applying for a SoFi credit card today.

FAQ

How can I get a private label credit card?

The easiest way to get a private label credit card is to apply on the website or in the store of the merchant that offers the card. If you meet the credit card requirements, you will be approved for the card. Then you can start using it while shopping at this particular merchant.

How do private label credit cards make money?

Private label credit cards make money in much the same way that any other credit card companies make money. They make money from the fees associated with the card (late fees, possible annual fees, etc) and interest paid by cardholders who carry a balance. Additionally, they may rake in money from “swipe fees” paid by the merchant each time the card is used.

Who do you make payments to when using a private label credit card?

While a private label credit card often has the logo of a particular merchant or store, the day-to-day processing is handled by a bank or other financial services company. You’ll make your payments directly to the processing company, usually not to the store itself. One of the credit card rules for successfully managing your credit is to pay your bill in full, each and every month, so make sure you understand who and when you need to pay.

---

Photo credit: iStock/gazanfer

¹Members earn 2 rewards points for every dollar spent on purchases. No rewards points will be earned with respect to reversed transactions, returned purchases, or other similar transactions. When you elect to redeem rewards points into your SoFi Checking or Savings account, SoFi Money® account, SoFi Active Invest account, SoFi Credit Card account, or SoFi Personal, Private Student, or Student Loan Refinance, your rewards points will redeem at a rate of 1 cent per every point. For more details please visit the Rewards page. Brokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. SoFi Securities LLC is an affiliate of SoFi Bank, N.A.

¹See Rewards Details at SoFi.com/card/rewards.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

The SoFi Credit Card is issued by SoFi Bank, N.A. pursuant to license by Mastercard® International Incorporated and can be used everywhere Mastercard is accepted. Mastercard is a registered trademark, and the circles design is a trademark of Mastercard International Incorporated.

Members earn 2 rewards points for every dollar spent on purchases. No rewards points will be earned with respect to reversed transactions, returned purchases, or other similar transactions. When you elect to redeem rewards points into your SoFi Checking or Savings account, SoFi Money® account, SoFi Active Invest account, SoFi Credit Card account, or SoFi Personal, Private Student, or Student Loan Refinance, your rewards points will redeem at a rate of 1 cent per every point. For more details, please visit the Rewards page. Brokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC. SoFi Securities LLC is an affiliate of SoFi Bank, N.A.

SOCC0922035

Read more

Working with a professional real estate agent can make buying or selling a home easier. After all, they are likely to be well versed in the ins and outs of your area, how to best negotiate in the current market, and how to access any other resources (say, a home inspector) that you may need.

While there may be some agents you hit it off with personally, this isn’t a friendship you’re pursuing but an important business relationship. It’s a collaboration that could impact both your finances as well as your stress level.

No matter which side of a real estate transaction you’re on (buying or selling), it can be wise to have the right professional in your corner. Ninety-two percent of homes sold in the U.S.in 2021 involved an agent’s or a broker’s services.

If you’re in the hunt for an agent, it’s important to know what to ask to identify the right match. Read on to learn questions to ask, whether you’re buying or selling a property — or doing both at once. (This is a lengthy list of interview questions for real estate, so pick and choose the questions that resonate the most.)

How to Interview a Realtor

First, a bit about terminology: A Realtor® belongs to the National Association of Realtors® (or NAR), composed of nearly 1.6 million members. Not all real estate agents are Realtors, but for the purposes of this article, we’ll sometimes use the two terms interchangeably.

First, know that there are different options for interviewing Realtors. You could schedule an interview:

•   Over the phone

•   In person

•   Virtually via Zoom or Skype.

You might aim to interview at least three agents for comparison’s sake, though you may choose to interview more or fewer.

Create a list of interview questions beforehand to help you stay on track. And it may help to group your questions together so that by the time the interview is over, you understand:

•   What the agent’s personality and character are like: Is this person supportive and positive? Do they sound rushed and distracted?

•   What kind of services they offer and what experience they bring to the table.

•   How much you’ll pay for their help.

You’ll learn about how to do this in more depth as you read on.

Recommended: Tips When Shopping for a Mortgage

What to Ask About a Realtor’s Background

Any real estate agent you choose to work with should have the professional qualifications you’re looking for. But it’s also important to get a sense of who they are as an individual to avoid personality clashes. Here are some questions to ask as you evaluate an agent who might help you buy or sell a home.

1. How Long Have You Been a Realtor?

It helps to understand how long an agent you’re considering working with has been buying or selling homes. The median real estate experience of all Realtors is eight years, according to NAR.

Working with an agent who’s newer to the profession isn’t necessarily a bad thing. But one who’s more experienced may be more adept at handling any challenges that arise when buying or selling a home.

2. How Well Do You Know the Local Market?

A Realtor who knows a particular area or market well can offer an advantage when buying or selling. Ideally, you should work with an agent who understands the local market and what trends drive it.

The more informed they are, the better equipped they are to do things like comparative market analysis, which can give you a sense of how home prices in the area are trending. They will also likely know details like, say, which parts of town are more prone to flooding than others.

Recommended: Local Housing Market Trends: Popular neighborhoods, home prices, and demographics

3. How Many Clients Do You Work With at One Time?

The answer can give you an idea of how much time an agent will be able to dedicate to working with you. Especially if you ask the follow-up question, “And how many clients do you currently have?”

4. Do You Work Alone or as Part of a Team?

Keep in mind that you may not be working with your Realtor alone to finalize the purchase or sale of a home. Agents may have a team of individuals they work with, including office managers, personal assistants, or marketing directors, who may reach out to you during the process.

Asking who else you may be connected with can help you avoid surprises if you decide to enter into a working relationship with a particular agent.

5. How Will We Communicate and How Often?

Being able to communicate with an agent is important to keep the process moving.

As with many realms in our digital era, plenty of Realtors email and text to keep in touch with clients. If you’re the kind of person who prefers phone calls or in-person meetings, it’s good to identify communication styles up front and make sure they are in sync.

6. Do You Specialize in Buying or Selling?

Some Realtors may choose to work exclusively with buyers, while others work only with sellers. And some can act as dual agents, representing both the buyer and seller in the same transaction. Dual agency is rare, and it’s illegal in several states. A dual agent can’t take sides or give advice.

The answer to this question will help you get a better idea of whether the agent is attuned to your side of a real estate transaction. Ideally, you want someone who is passionate about your deal, whether that’s finding the perfect house with a picket fence or selling the condo you’ve outgrown.

Recommended: Preparing to Buy a House in 8 Simple Steps

7. How Many Transactions Did You Close Last Year?

Asking this question can give you an idea of an agent’s overall success rate and the volume of transactions they handle.

The median number of residential transactions Realtors took part in per year is 12. If you’re interviewing agents with closings well below that number, it could be a sign that they aren’t always successful in closing deals. If their number is much higher, it could mean they are super busy and you might not get as much attention as with another agent.

8. How Long Does It Normally Take You to Close a Deal?

Once the seller and the buyer of a property have signed their purchase agreement, closing on a home can take anywhere from a week (for an all-cash offer) to a couple of months (for those involving a mortgage) to close. The average time to close on a purchase when a home loan is needed is 50 days, according to the loan software firm ICE Mortgage Technology.

Asking a Realtor what their average closing time is can give you an idea of how efficiently and diligently they work to satisfy their clients.

If their average closing time is closer to four or six months, for example, that could be a red flag, though some deals do wind up being more complicated than others.

9. What Are the Terms of Your Contract?

Working with a Realtor means entering into a contract, and it’s important to know what that contract says. These documents may be more common when you work with a broker to sell a home, but there are also buyer’s agreements.

These ensure that if they invest the time scanning the market for you, scheduling walk-throughs, and negotiating on your behalf, you won’t then complete the deal with, say, a relative of yours who just got their real-estate license.

When you are selling a house, you’ll sign a document agreeing that the agent will handle the sale. Once you sign a contract you’re typically locked in to working with them unless they agree to release you.

The listing agreement will last for a set period, such as three or six months. From your perspective, shorter may be better so that you’re not trapped if you don’t like the agent’s services.

10. What Fees Do You Charge?

Closely connected to contracts is the topic of money. How does it change hands? What are you liable for? Real estate agents typically work on commission, meaning they only get paid when they close a deal. What you’ll pay and when depends on whether you’re buying or selling a home.

If you’re the buyer in a transaction, the seller is usually responsible for paying commission fees to both their agent and yours. If you’re selling a home, you’d cover the agent’s fees, which would be deducted from the proceeds of the home sale.

The typical commission is 5% to 6% of the home’s sale price, split evenly between the buyer’s agent and the seller’s agent. So a $250,000 home, for example, would yield $12,500 to $15,000 in commissions.

Recommended: Do You Still Need to Put a 20% Down Payment on a House?

Questions to Ask a Realtor When You Are Selling

If you’re selling your home, here are some questions to ask to help ensure that you partner with the right agent.

11. What’s Your Typical Marketing Strategy?

A Realtor should have a clear plan for listing and marketing your home in a way that produces the greatest odds of success in selling it quickly and at your desired price point. Let the agent you are interviewing tell you about their strategy and the results it yields.

For instance, does the Realtor believe in listing at a low price in the hopes of starting a bidding war? If so, what kinds of prices has this achieved? Where will your listing be posted? Will videos be created? Will there be an open house?

These kinds of questions can help you see if you are impressed by and aligned with how a Realtor likes to market homes.

12. Will You Handle Staging and Prep Work?

If you’re selling a home, staging it could help influence buyers’ perceptions of the property and potentially net you a higher sale price.

Staging is something you can do yourself, but your Realtor may have a staging company they work with to get the job done.

Asking about staging or small cosmetic updates, such as painting, can help you figure out what you’ll be responsible for to get your home ready for the market. There’s a price tag attached to all improvements, so you’ll want to know the numbers to be better prepared.

13. How Do You Handle Viewings?

The use of digital tools such as virtual tours have made properties more accessible to more buyers. One recent Zillow survey found that almost 40% of Millenials would be comfortable buying a home online vs. in person.

See if your agent plans to create a virtual tour, but you also want to be prepared for the majority of buyers who want to visit in person. Ask Realtors how many viewings they typically schedule in a day or a week, how often open houses will be scheduled, and how they’ll be marketed.

Questions to Ask a Realtor When You Are Buying

Now you’ve learned the questions to ask a Realtor when selling. How about the other side of the deal? Whether you’re shopping for a starter home or trading up, here are a couple of important questions to ask a potential real estate agent when buying a house.

14. What Happens When I’m Ready to Make an Offer?

If you’re a buyer, agents should be able to walk you through how this process works, what to do if the seller makes a counteroffer, and what you’ll need to do next if your offer is accepted. You also want to check if they have experience with successfully navigating bidding wars, which can happen in hot markets and with well-priced properties.

Also check that they can advise you on how much earnest money you might need to pay and how to find a good, affordable home inspector, as these are important aspects of the deal.

Recommended: How to Buy a House in 7 Steps

15. Will You Help Me With Getting a Mortgage?

This question will shed more light on a prospective agent’s network and experience. Agents may be able to offer recommendations for mortgage lenders. They may also be willing to communicate with your lender if there are questions about the property or the offer during underwriting.

You’re not obligated to use your Realtor’s recommended lender. In fact, it’s helpful to compare mortgage loan terms and interest rates from multiple lenders to find the option that best fits your needs.

The Takeaway

Due diligence in the search for the right real estate agent may mean interviewing a few of them and not automatically going with your mom’s or co-worker’s agent friend. It’s important to know how to interview a Realtor and which questions to ask, so you can pair up with the best possible professional as you navigate this major transaction.

If you’re a buyer, once you’ve found an agent, you can turn your attention to getting prequalified for a home loan, finding a property, and then obtaining the mortgage. At that stage, check out what SoFi’slow rate mortgage loans offer. They have competitive fixed-interest rates and are available to qualifying first-time homebuyers with as little as 3% down. And SoFi now offers loans on investment properties.

Find out your best rate with SoFi.

---

SoFi Mortgages
Terms, conditions, and state restrictions apply. Not all products are available in all states. See SoFi.com/eligibility for more information.

SoFi Loan Products
SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

SOHL0922005

Read more

Generally speaking, a recession is a period of economic contraction. Recessions are typically accompanied by falling stock markets, a rise in unemployment, a drop in income and consumer spending, and increased business failures.

Recessions tend to have a wide-ranging economic impact, affecting businesses, jobs, everyday individuals, and investment returns. But what are recessions exactly, and what long-term repercussions do they tend to have on personal financial situations? Here’s a deeper dive into these economic contractions.

Different Recession Definitions

A recession is usually defined as a drop in gross domestic product (GDP) — which represents the total value of goods and services produced in the country — for at least two quarters in a row. However, this is not an official definition of a recession, just a shorthand that many economists and investors use when analyzing the economy.

Moreover, consumers and workers may believe that the economy is in a recession when unemployment or inflation rises, even though economic output may still be growing.

Recessions are officially defined and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

💡 Recommended: Recession Survival Guide and Help Center

NBER’s Definition

The NBER defines a recession as a significant and widespread decline in economic activity that lasts a few months. The economists at the NBER use a wide range of economic indicators to determine the peaks and troughs of economic activity. The NBER chooses to define a recession in terms of monthly indicators, including:

•   Employment. Job growth or job loss can be used to gauge the likelihood of a recession and serve as a litmus test of sorts for which way the economy is moving.

•   Personal income. Personal income can play a direct role in influencing recessionary environments. When consumers have more personal income to spend, that can fuel a growing economy. But when personal income declines or purchasing power declines because of rising interest rates, that can be a recession indicator.

•   Industrial production. Industrial production is a measure of manufacturing activity. If manufacturing begins to slow down, that could suggest slumping demand in the economy and, in turn, a shrinking economy.

These indicators are then viewed against the backdrop of quarterly gross domestic product growth to determine if a recession is in progress. Therefore, the NBER doesn’t follow the commonly accepted rule of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, as that alone isn’t considered a reliable indicator of recessionary movements in the economy.

Additionally, the NBER is a backward-looking organization, declaring a recession after one has already begun and announcing the trough of economic activity after it has already bottomed.

Julius Shiskin Definition

The shorthand of using two negative quarters of GDP growth can be traced back to a definition of a recession that first originated in the 1970s with Julius Shiskin, once commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Shiskin defined recession as meaning:

•   Two consecutive quarters of negative gross national product (GNP) growth

•   1.5% decline in real GNP

•   15% decline in non-farm payroll employment

•   Unemployment reaching at least 6%

•   Six months or more of job losses in more than 75% of industries

•   Six months or more of decline in industrial production

It’s important to note that Shiskin’s recession definition used GNP, whereas modern definitions of recession use GDP instead. GNP, or gross national product, measures the value of goods and services produced by a country both domestically and internationally. Gross domestic product only measures the value of goods and services produced within the country itself.

How Often Do Recessions Occur?

Economic recessions are a normal part of the business cycle. According to the NBER, the U.S. experienced 33 recessions prior to the coronavirus pandemic. The first documented recession occurred in 1857, and the last was the Covid-19 recession, which started in February 2020 and ended in April 2020.

Since World War II, a recession has occurred, on average, every six years, though the actual timing can and has varied.

U.S. Recessions Since World War II
Start of Recession	End of Recession	Number of Months
November 1948	October 1949	11
July 1953	May 1954	10
August 1957	April 1958	8
April 1960	February 1961	10
December 1969	November 1970	11
November 1973	March 1975	16
January 1980	July 1980	6
July 1981	November 1982	16
July 1990	March 1991	8
March 2001	November 2001	8
December 2007	June 2009	18
February 2020	April 2020	2
Source: NBER

How Long Do Recessions Last?

According to the NBER, the shortest recession occurred following the Covid-19-related shutdowns and lasted two months, while the longest went from 1873 to 1879, lasting 65 months. The Great Recession lasted 18 months between December 2007 and June 2009 and was the longest recession since World War II.

If you consider the other 12 recessions following World War II, they have lasted, on average, about ten months.

Periods of economic expansion tend to last longer than periods of recession. From 1945 to 2020, the average expansion lasted 64 months, while the average recession lasted ten months.

The most recent expansion, i.e., the one that occurred after the Great Recession between 2009 and the beginning of 2020, lasted 128 months.

Between the 1850s and World War II, economic expansions lasted an average of 26 months, while recessions lasted an average of 21 months.

The Great Recession between 2007 and 2009 was the most severe economic drawdown since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This recession was considered particularly damaging due to its duration, unemployment levels that peaked at around 10%, and the widespread impact on the housing market.

6 Common Causes of Recessions

The causes of recessions can vary greatly. Generally speaking, recessions happen when something causes a loss of confidence among businesses and consumers. The recession that occurred in 2020 could be considered an outlier, as it was mainly sparked by an external global health event rather than internal economic causes.

The mechanics behind a typical recession work like this: consumers lose confidence and stop spending, driving down demand for goods and services. As a result, the economy shifts from growth to contraction. This can, in turn, lead to job losses, a slowdown in borrowing, and a continued decline in consumer spending.

Here are some common characteristics of recessions:

1. High Interest Rates

High interest rates make borrowing money more expensive, limiting the amount of money available to spend and invest. In the past, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to protect the value of the dollar or prevent the economy from overheating, which has, at times, resulted in a recession.

For example, the 1970s saw a period of stagnant growth and inflation that came to be known as “stagflation.” To fight it, the Fed raised interest rates throughout the decade, which created the recessions between 1980 and 1982.

2. Falling Housing Prices

If housing demand falls, so does the value of people’s homes. Homeowners may no longer be able to tap their house’s equity. As a result, homeowners may have less money in their pockets to spend, reducing consumption in the economy.

3. Stock Market Crash

A stock market crash occurs when a stock market index drops severely. If it falls by at least 20%, it enters what is known as a “bear market.” Stock market crashes can result in a recession since individual investors’ net worth declines, causing them to reduce spending because of a negative wealth effect. It can also cut into confidence among businesses, causing them to spend and hire less.

As stock prices drop, businesses may also face less access to capital and may produce less. They may have to lay off workers, whose ability to spend is curtailed. As this pattern continues, the economy may contract into recession.

4. Reduction in Real Wages

Real wages describe how much income an individual makes when adjusted for inflation. In other words, it represents how far consumer income can go in terms of the goods and services it can purchase.

When real wages shrink, a recession can begin. Consumers can lose confidence when they realize their income isn’t keeping up with inflation, leading to less spending and economic slowdown.

5. Bursting Bubbles

Asset bubbles are to blame for some of the most significant recessions in U.S. history, including the stock market bubble in the 1920s, the tech bubble in the 1990s, and the housing bubble in the 2000s.

An asset bubble occurs when the price of an asset, such as stock, bonds, commodities, and real estate, quickly rises without actual value in the asset to justify the rise.

As prices rise, new investors jump in, hoping to take advantage of the rapidly growing market. Yet, when the bubble bursts — for example, if demand runs out — the market can collapse, eventually leading to recession.

6. Deflation

Deflation is a widespread drop in prices, which an oversupply of goods and services can cause. This oversupply can result in consumers and businesses saving money rather than spending it. This is because consumers and businesses would rather wait to purchase goods and services that may be lower in price in the future. As demand falls and people spend less, a recession can follow due to the contraction in consumption and economic activity.

How Do Recessions Affect You?

Businesses may have fewer customers when the economy begins to slow down because consumers have less real income to spend. So they institute layoffs as a cost-cutting measure, which means unemployment rates rise.

As more people lose their jobs, they have less to spend on discretionary items, which means fewer sales and lower revenue for businesses. Individuals who can keep their jobs may choose to save their money rather than spend it, leading to less revenue for businesses.

Investors may see the value of their portfolios shrink if a recession triggers stock market volatility. Homeowners may also see a decline in their home’s equity if home values drop because of a recession.

When consumer spending declines, corporate earnings start to shrink. If a business doesn’t have enough resources to weather the storm, it may have to file for bankruptcy.

💡 Recommended: How to Invest During a Recession

Governments and central banks will often do what they can to head off recession through monetary or fiscal stimulus to boost employment and spending.

Central banks, like the Federal Reserve, can provide monetary policy stimulus. The Fed can lower interest rates, which reduces the cost of borrowing. As more people borrow, there’s more money in circulation and more incentive to spend and invest.

Fiscal stimulus can come from tax breaks or incentives that increase outputs and incomes in the short term. Governments may put together stimulus packages to boost economic growth.

For example, stock market volatility increased wildly amid fears of the coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout. To ward off recession, the U.S. government put together trillions in Covid-19 stimulus packages that included direct payments to citizens, suspended student loan payments, a boost to unemployment benefits, and a lending program for businesses and state and local governments.

💡 Recommended: 5 Common Recession Fears and How to Cope

Recessions vs Depressions and Bear Markets

Recessions vs Depressions

When a recession occurs, it could stir up uneasy feelings that perhaps the economy will enter a depression. However, there are significant differences between recessions and depression. While recessions are a normal part of the business cycle that last less than a year, depressions are a severe decline in economic output that can last for years. Consider that the Great Recession lasted 18 months, while the Great Depression lasted about ten years, beginning in 1929.

The Great Depression is the most recent example of a depression in the U.S. From 1929 through 1933, as many as 25% of Americans were unemployed, and real GDP declined by 29%. In contrast, the unemployment rate peaked at 10%, and real GDP fell by 4% during the Great Recession.

Recessions vs Bear Markets

A recession is also different from a bear market, even though many think the two events go hand-in-hand.

A bear market begins when the stock market drops 20% from its recent high. If you look at the benchmark S&P 500 index, there have been 13 bear markets since 1945.

Yet, not all bear markets result in recession. During 1987’s infamous Black Monday stock market crash, the S&P 500 lost 34%, and the resulting bear market lasted four months. However, the economy did not dissolve into recession.

That’s happened three other times since 1947. Bear markets have lasted 14 months on average since World War II, and the most significant decline since then was the bear market of 2007–2009.

The first thing to understand is that the stock market is not the same as the economy, though they are related. Investors react to changes in economic conditions because what’s happening in the economy can affect the companies in which investors own stock.

So, if investors think the economy is growing, they may be more willing to put money in the stock market. They will likely pull money out of the stock market if they believe it is contracting. These reactions can function as a sort of prediction of recession.

💡 Recommended: Bear Market Investing Strategies

Is It Possible to Predict a Recession?

Economists and investors try to predict recession, but it’s difficult to do, and they often end up wrong. Economists usually frame the possibility of a recession as a probability. For example, they may say there’s a 35% chance of a recession in the next year.

There are several methods economists use to try to predict recessions. Some of the most common include analyzing economic indicators, such as employment and inflation, as well as consumer and business confidence surveys. Economists build models with these economic indicators as inputs, hoping the data will help them determine the path of economic growth. While these methods can indicate whether a recession might be on the horizon, they are far from perfect.

One issue in predicting a recession is that a lot of data analysts use to forecast the economy are backward looking indicators. These data, like the unemployment rate or GDP, present a picture of the economy as it was a month or more prior. Using this data to paint a picture of the present economy becomes difficult and adds to the complexity of predicting a recession.

However, many analysts believe the yield curve is the best indicator to help predict a recession. When the yield curve inverts, meaning that the interest rate on short-term Treasuries is higher than on long-term Treasuries, it is a warning sign that the economy is heading to a recession. An inverted yield curve has occurred before all 10 U.S. recessions since 1955.

Is the US Heading Into a Recession?

There are debates about whether the U.S. is heading into a recession in 2022 or 2023 due to several factors.

The U.S. economy has been in a precarious situation during 2022. Inflation has been running hot due to supply chain issues related to the economic fallout of Covid-19 and fiscal and monetary policy stimulus. The Federal Reserve started raising interest rates at a historic pace to combat the rising prices. The Fed began an attempt to curb inflation with the hope of a soft landing, in which an economy slows enough that prices stop rising quickly but not so slowly that it sparks a recession.

These factors made the chance of a recession more of a reality. Economic growth, as measured by GDP, declined in the first half of 2022. Because of this, some economists and analysts believe that the economy entered a recession because of the shorthand definition of two straight quarters of negative GDP growth.

However, other commentators note that the unemployment rate was 3.5% as of September 2022, the lowest in 50 years, and hiring was still robust. The strong labor market suggested that the economy couldn’t be in a recession. Economic indicators like industrial production and consumer spending are also growing, showing a potentially resilient economy.

Nonetheless, the U.S. economy faces several headwinds due to inflation, rising energy prices, and a global economic slowdown. So even if the economy is not in a recession as of October 2022, it could still be heading into one in the coming months.

The Takeaway

The possibility of a recession can be unsettling, causing you to think of economic hardships and spark fears of personal financial troubles. However, recessions are a regular part of the business cycle, so you should be prepared for one if and when it comes. When it comes to investing, this means building and maintaining a portfolio to meet long-term goals. The resulting portfolio likely holds a balanced mix of assets that accounts for an investor’s time horizon and risk tolerance.

The key to riding out a recession is for investors to stick to their long-term plans, only rebalancing when it will help them reach their long-term goals. With a SoFi online brokerage account, you can start building a portfolio that meets your long-term financial needs. You can trade stocks, ETFs, and IPOs with no commissions for as little as $5.

Take a step toward reaching your financial goals with SoFi Invest.

---

SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

External Websites: The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third-party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. Links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement.

SOIN1022005

Read more