Should You Borrow Money in a Recession? Risks, Benefits, and What to Consider
Table of Contents
- Understanding Recessions
- Financial Policy During a Recession
- How Interest Rate Changes During a Recession Affect Consumers
- Risks of Borrowing Money During a Recession
- Benefits of Borrowing During a Recession
- When to Consider Borrowing During a Recession
- When You Should Avoid Borrowing During a Recession
- Alternatives to Borrowing During a Recession
- FAQ
When you’re facing a potential recession, financial decisions take on a new weight. But figuring out how to prepare for a recession can be difficult. After all, financial policy may change during a recession, which can leave consumers with questions. For example, if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, should you borrow during a recession?
While lower recession interest rates might sound appealing, there are lots of things to consider before borrowing money during a recession.
Key Points
• Recession involves economic decline, reduced spending, and increased unemployment.
• Lower interest rates during recessions can make borrowing attractive, but risks must be considered.
• The potential for job loss increases borrowing risk and the potential for credit score damage.
• Borrowing may help consolidate high-interest debts or cover unexpected expenses.
• Weigh risks and benefits, consider consolidation loans, and seek professional advice.
Understanding Recessions
A recession is a period of time when economic activity significantly declines. In the U.S., the National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as more than a few months of significant decline across different sectors of the economy. We see this decline in changes to the gross domestic product, unemployment rates, and incomes.
Spending drops during a recession. As a result, businesses ramp down production, lay off staff, and/or close altogether, which in turn causes a continued decrease in spending.
There are many possible causes of the recession — they can be economic, geopolitical, and even psychological. All coincide to create the conditions for an economic downturn. For example, a recession could be caused by a major disruption in oil access due to global conflict, or by the bursting of a financial bubble created by artificially depressed interest rates on home loans during a financial boom (as was partially the case with the 2008 financial crisis in the U.S.). Consumers can recall the deep but fortunately brief recession of early 2020 caused by the pandemic, which created supply chain disruptions, forced businesses into failure, and changed spending habits.
As for how psychology plays a role in recessions, financial actors might be more likely to invest in a new business or home renovation during boom years when the market seems infallible. But when an economic downturn or recession starts, gloomy economic forecasts could make people more likely to put off big purchases or financial plans out of fear. In aggregate, these psychological decisions may help control the market. Many people avoiding spending out of fear could cause a further contraction, and consequently further a recession.
Financial Policy During a Recession
Economic policy might temporarily change in an effort to keep the market relatively stable amid the destabilization a recession can bring. The Federal Reserve, which controls monetary policy in the U.S., often takes steps to curb unemployment and stabilize prices during a recession.
The Federal Reserve’s first line of defense when it comes to managing a recession is often to lower interest rates. The Fed accomplishes this by lowering the interest rates for banks lending to other banks, called the Federal Reserve Rate. That lowered rate then ripples throughout the rest of the financial system, culminating in reduced interest rates for businesses and individuals.
The Federal Reserve also may take other monetary policy actions in an attempt to curb a recession, like quantitative easing. Quantitative easing (QE) is when the Federal Reserve creates new money and then uses that money to purchase assets like government bonds in order to stimulate the economy.
The manufacturing of new money under QE may help to fight deflation because the increase in available money lowers the value of the dollar. Additionally, QE can push interest rates down because federal purchasing of securities lowers the risks to lending institutions. Lower risks can translate to lower rates.
Recommended: Federal Reserve Interest Rates, Explained
How Interest Rate Changes During a Recession Affect Consumers
As we’ve seen, during the early phase of a recession, the Federal Reserve typically cuts interest rates in an effort to jumpstart the economy. During the Great Recession of 2007-2009, for example, the Fed did a total of 10 rate cuts that brought the Federal Funds Rate to almost zero.
The Federal Funds Rate is used by banks to guide interest rates on savings accounts, certificates of deposit, and by credit card companies and other lenders as well. Lowering the interest rate could help to stem a recession by decreasing costs for businesses and allowing consumers to take advantage of low interest rates to buy things using credit. The increase in business and purchasing might in turn help offset a recession.
Auto loans and student loan rates are also affected by changes in the rate. Although mortgage rates don’t directly follow the Federal Funds Rate, changes in the rate do impact the bond market and may thus have a downstream effect on home loans.
Risks of Borrowing Money During a Recession
How do you prepare for a recession? And should you borrow during a recession? It might seem smart to borrow during this time, thanks to sweet interest rates on personal loans during recession, for example. But there are other considerations that are important when deciding whether borrowing during a recession is the right move. Keep in mind the following potential downsides:
• There’s a heightened risk of borrowing during a recession thanks to other difficult financial conditions. Disruptive financial conditions like furloughs or layoffs could make it more difficult to make monthly payments on loans. After all, regular monthly expenses don’t go away during a recession, so borrowers could be in a tough position if they take on a new loan and then are unable to make payments after losing a job. Missed payments could negatively impact a borrower’s credit score and their ability to borrow in the future.
• It may be harder to find a bank willing to lend during a recession. Lower interest rates may mean that a bank or lending institution isn’t able to make as much money from loans. This may make lending institutions more hesitant.
• Lenders could be reluctant to lend to borrowers who may be unable to pay due to changes in the economy. Most forms of borrowing require borrowers to meet certain personal loan requirements in order to take out a loan. If a borrower’s financial situation is more unstable due to a recession, lenders may be less willing to lend.
Benefits of Borrowing During a Recession
If you are well positioned to withstand the economic hits of a recession, borrowing money can have some benefits. Borrowers who take out a personal loan during a recession often benefit from low interest rates.
If you already have debt, perhaps from existing credit cards or personal loans, you may be able to consolidate your debt into a new loan with a lower interest rate, thanks to the changes in the Fed’s interest rates. Consolidation doesn’t necessarily increase the total amount of money you owe. Rather, it’s the process by which a borrower takes out a new loan — with hopefully better interest rates and repayment terms — in order to pay off the prior debts.
When to Consider Borrowing During a Recession
As we have seen there are situations where personal loans during recession or other forms of borrowing might make sense. If you’re hit with unexpected expenses or have the opportunity to buy quality stocks for a lower price, for instance, it could make sense to have extra funds available. Personal loans tend to have lower interest rates than credit cards, so opting for a personal loan could be a better financial choice than running up credit cards trying to cover expenses during a downturn.
Another scenario where it might be a good idea is if you’re consolidating other debts with a consolidation loan. Why trade out one type of debt for another? Credit cards often have high interest rates. So if a borrower has multiple credit card debts with high interest rates, they may be able to refinance credit card debt with a consolidation loan with a lower interest rate. Trading in higher interest rates loans for a consolidation loan with potentially better terms could save borrowers money over the life of the loan. It also streamlines bill paying.
It’s important to understand how debt consolidation works before proceeding with this option. When considering consolidation, focus on consolidating only high-interest debt. Comparing the interest rates of your current debt with that of a potential consolidation loan can guide your decision.
Note that interest rates on consolidation loans can be either fixed or variable. Fixed-rate recession loans allow borrowers to potentially lock in a lower interest rate. With variable-rate recession loans, the interest rate could go up as rates rise after the depths of the economic downturn.
Additionally, as with other loan types, consolidation loans require that borrowers meet certain requirements. Available interest rates may depend on factors like credit score, income, and creditworthiness.
Recommended: How to Apply for a Personal Loan
When You Should Avoid Borrowing During a Recession
Borrowing money in a recession has its risks. If your ability to repay the debt you take on is dependent on your employment income, you’ll want to take steps to ensure your job is solid before adding to your debt burden. Unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007 surged to 10% and many people who never thought twice about job security were blindsided by layoffs.
If taking on new debt involves collateral, as it would if you guaranteed a loan with your home, for example, you’ll want to double- and triple-check your ability to make those payments. An unsecured loan may be a safer bet at this time.
Alternatives to Borrowing During a Recession
Whether you are trying to keep a small business afloat, helping out a family member who has been laid off, or just need additional cash on hand for your own expenses during a recession, there are other options besides borrowing.
Tap Emergency Savings
If you’ve saved money in an emergency fund, a recession is the time to set it free. “An emergency fund is intended to be used at a moment’s notice. For the most part, you’ll hear that a healthy emergency fund should cover between three and six months worth of living expenses — which would include rent, mortgage, bills, food, and other essentials. And since you never know when an emergency might happen, it’s best to keep your fund relatively liquid,” notes Brian Walsh, CFP®\ and Head of Advice & Planning at SoFi.
Adjust Your Budget
Spending cutbacks are common in a recession, and now’s the time to examine where your money goes and look for extras you might trim back to stretch your income or any savings you are tapping. This could be anything from quitting streaming services and getting a library card to making your own coffee and taking your lunch to work. If you have a sizable chunk of your monthly budget devoted to paying down credit card debt, examine those costs vs. the cost of a monthly payment on a debt consolidation loan. Renting? Don’t renew your lease without a careful examination of the market. Lowering housing costs is a way to free up cash.
The Takeaway
It can be challenging to navigate any economic downturn, and it’s natural to wonder how to prepare for a recession. Borrowing money in a recession, such as by taking out a personal loan, is a decision that depends on your specific circumstances. There are downsides to consider, such as the general economic uncertainty that can increase risk and heightened risk-aversion from lenders. But if you have high-interest debt and can secure a lower rate by consolidating, then taking out a consolidation loan during a recession could make sense. Weigh the risks and benefits carefully as you make your decision.
Think twice before turning to high-interest credit cards. Consider a SoFi personal loan instead. SoFi offers competitive fixed rates and same-day funding. See your rate in minutes.
FAQ
Is it good to have money in the bank during a recession?
The general consensus is that banks are a safe place to keep your cash during a recession. If your account is insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), then individual deposits up to $250,000 are protected. Banks also protect funds against theft or loss.
Is it better to have cash in a recession?
It’s a good idea to have some of your money in cash during a recession. That’s because if you’re laid off from your job or an emergency arises, it can be helpful to have a cushion of readily accessible money.
Should I withdraw all my money during a recession?
If you’re thinking about how to prepare for the recession, it can be tempting to want to take out all of your money from a bank. But there’s good reason to reconsider. Many banks are FDIC insured, which means deposits up to $250,000 are protected.
Is it a good idea to take out a loan during a recession?
If you are confident that you can make loan payments even if the downturn is sustained and you lose your job, you may be fine taking out a loan during a recession. And if taking out a loan helps you consolidate high-interest debt into a lower-interest personal loan, it could help you save money.
What types of loans are best during a recession?
An unsecured personal loan may be a safer bet during a recession than a loan that is secured by your home, such as a home equity loan. Being unable to keep up with payments on a secured loan could put your home at risk of foreclosure.
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