SoFi Blog

Let Your Goals Be Your Guide

After a somewhat gloomy close to 2018, the New Year has not exactly rewarded investors with warm and fuzzy headlines. Let’s see…first, there was the longest government shutdown in US history, which was hard on the employees who were directly impacted. And with that, the US economy lost an estimated $3 billion that will never be recovered.

Then, across the pond, Great Britain’s Prime Minister suffered a stinging defeat of her Brexit proposal and there is no clear resolution in sight. China’s economy was found to have grown only 6.6% in 2018, its slowest showing since 1990. The IMF also warned that global economic expansion is weakening.

And, oh, and the S&P 500, a broad measure of US stocks, rose 7.8%, which was its best January return since 1987 .

Wait, what? How did that happen?

Holiday Cheer with a Dash of Stock Market Fear

“O Turkey Lurkey, the sky is falling!”
—The Remarkable Story of Chicken Little

Quoting a well-worn children’s tale may seem a bit crass in the wake of an uncertain market. But, this classic yarn remains prophetic because of the timeless lessons it espouses for tumultuous times like these.

For the uninitiated, Chicken Little gets unnecessarily spooked, yells about the end of the world, and convinces all of her flavorful foul friends to prepare for the worst. The wily fox senses opportunity and invites his feathered friends into his den to take shelter from the impending storm—where he then proceeds to consume each worrywart one by one.

Given the market turmoil and disheartening news headlines, many investors may wonder if Chicken Little was on to something, despite knowing her eventual fate. As stock valuations become more reasonable, it may make more sense for investors to act like the opportunistic fox.

Are We Still Living in the Shadow of October?

Wishful thinking. Sure, it feels good when you’re doing it, but does it ever really pan out? Not for this guy.

As I sat down to pen the October Monthly Market Recap, I daydreamed—overly optimistically, of course—that there’d be a pretty quick turnaround in the market. And while things have looked up in spots, it’s not the stuff daydreams are made of.

In a nutshell, after a turbulent October, investors just didn’t get much of a break in November. And anyone hoping for a relaxing end to the year may be disappointed. The market’s on edge—good news is met with reservation and bad news is sensationalized. There are plenty of risks facing the market and until further clarity is gained, the market could be in for a bumpy ride.

What Caused the October Stock Market Decline?

One thing that’s always kind of freaked me out is how quickly things can turn on a dime. I know, that’s the way life goes sometimes, but it still can feel a bit unnerving. And evidently, I’m not alone, at least if this past month is any indication.

Prior to this past October, the economic data hitting the news read like an investor’s dream. The US economy was booming, wage growth was picking up steam, inflation was contained, and American stocks were on track for another year of double-digit returns.

Most economies outside of the US were also doing very well—in fact, every single major economy was displaying expansionary tendencies. It’s not often that synchronous growth occurs around the globe, but everyone seemed to be playing their part and marching ahead. Life was good.

Then, October came through like a wrecking ball. Everyone got spooked—weeks before the actual ghouls and goblins came out to play, and in turn, stocks took a dive. Things were going so well prior to this, so what happened?