With several Federal Reserve governors and regional presidents scheduled to speak this week, investors can expect to hear more about last week's interest rate hike and whether it's the first in a series.
At a Glance
• The news: The government will release updates on business activity and home sales, and several Federal Reserve governors and regional presidents are scheduled to speak.
• The context: The big question is whether the economy can withstand higher borrowing costs. Is this the start of a longer hiking cycle? Can higher rates bring inflation down without hurting the job market?
• Your move: Higher borrowing costs can put rate-sensitive industries like homebuilding (e.g. XHB, ITB) on their backfoot, but a lot will depend on the home sales data. More broadly, short-duration Treasury ETFs (e.g. VGSH) can help protect against interest rate volatility while capturing yield. Same with ETFs that prioritize companies with low leverage (e.g., QUAL, SCHD).
Some context is useful here: There are 19 members on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and most indicated they expected at least one additional rate increase by the end of the year (2 said no more, 12 said one more, 4 said two more, and Chairman Kevin Warsh didn't submit a projection).
It's unclear what each policymaker is most worried about when it comes to inflation. Is it the oil shock? Insatiable spending on AI? The labor market getting hotter? What exactly they end up saying — or not saying — will go a long way in determining how markets digest last week's interest rate decision.
We'll also be getting economic updates. S&P Global PMIs will give a preliminary look at September business trends, and new home sales will shed light on how the market is reacting to rising mortgage rates. Then we'll see how Americans are feeling about their finances in a revised consumer sentiment reading for September.
On the Docket
Monday
• 8:30am ET | August Chicago Fed National Activity Index: This monthly index incorporates 85 indicators from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories.
• Fedspeak: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will discuss monetary policy at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London, followed by moderated Q&A.
Tuesday
• 8:15am ET | ADP Weekly Employment Change: This survey offers insight into weekly private sector employment trends.
• 8:30am ET | September Philadelphia Fed Services Activity: The Philadelphia Fed surveys executives in the region's services industry on business conditions and their outlook.
• 10:00am ET | September Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed surveys manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• 10:00am ET | September Richmond Fed Services Activity: The Richmond Fed surveys executives in the region's services industry on business conditions and their outlook.
• Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver keynote remarks at the 2026 Treasury Market Conference. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will give a speech at the CFA Society of Baltimore.
• Earnings
◦ Large & Mid-Caps: AutoZone (AZO)
Wednesday
• 7:00am ET | Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• 9:45am ET | September S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.
• Earnings
◦ Large & Mid-Caps: Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), General Mills (GIS)
Thursday
• 8:30am ET | Weekly Jobless Claims: This high-frequency labor market data gives insight into initial and continuing filings for unemployment benefits.
• 10:00am ET | August New Home Sales: While new homes are a minority of overall home sales, they tend to be more cyclical and give insight into developing trends.
• 11:00am ET | September Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed surveys manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Fedspeak: Williams will take part in a moderated discussion at the London Macro Policy Forum, followed by Q&A. Barkin will take part in a fireside chat at the Economic Club of Washington, followed by Q&A. Cleveland Fed President will give opening remarks at the Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2026 Conference. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will discuss the economic outlook at the regional bank's annual fintech conference.
• Earnings
◦ Mega-Caps: Costco (COST)
◦ Large & Mid-Caps: Darden Restaurants (DRI)
Friday
• 8:30am ET | August Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.
• 10:00am ET | September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Consumer feelings about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.
• 11:00am ET | September Kansas City Fed Services Activity: The Kansas City Fed surveys executives in the region's services industry on business conditions and their outlook.
• Fedspeak: Williams will take part in a policy panel at the University of Oxford's monetary economics conference. Hammack will participate in a panel discussion at the regional Fed's inflation conference.
Note: Companies with at least $200 billion in market capitalization are classified as “Mega-Caps,” while others are shown in the “Large & Mid-Caps” sections.
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