As skepticism around AI investments grows, the market may be riding on corporate fundamentals this week.
At a Glance
• The news: Third-quarter earnings season will pick up speed, with some of the biggest technology companies, consumer brands and industrial leaders scheduled to report.
• The context: The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) rattled markets last week. Investors want reassurance that people and businesses are still spending money despite rising inflation. They also want to know whether higher costs are eating into corporate profits.
• Your move: Watch for signs of stagflation (when inflation is rising despite a relatively stagnant economy.) Companies that have stronger finances — and can raise prices without losing customers — are generally more resilient in these moments. “Defensive” investments that target these companies, like the MSCI USA Min Vol (USMV) and High Quality (QUAL) factor ETFs, tend to outperform.
Heavyweights like Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), General Electric (GE) and Procter & Gamble (PG) will report quarterly earnings results this week, and it feels like the bar to satisfy investors is particularly high. As investors second-guess whether all the aggressive investment in artificial intelligence is worth it, they want to see whether AI has actually helped businesses be more efficient and profitable.
Inflation jitters are also contributing to wobbly stock markets. Investors are looking for signs that customers have kept spending, and that companies still have the power to raise prices.
All this nervousness may have fueled the recent shift away from higher-risk stocks into theoretically lower-risk Treasurys.
On the Docket
Monday
• 10:00am ET | October NAHB Housing Market Index: This index tracks how homebuilders feel about the current and future state of the single-family housing market.
• Earnings
◦ Large & Mid-Caps: Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Steel Dynamics (STLD), W R Berkley (WRB)
Tuesday
• 8:15am ET | ADP Weekly Employment Change: This survey offers insight into weekly private sector employment trends.
• 8:30am ET | October Philadelphia Fed Services Activity: The Philadelphia Fed surveys executives in the region’s services industry on business conditions and their outlook.
• 8:30am ET | September Building Permits and Housing Starts: Construction data is a leading indicator of economic activity.
• Earnings
◦ Mega-Caps: General Electric (GE), Netflix (NFLX), RTX (RTX)
◦ Large & Mid-Caps: Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Chubb (CB), Capital One Financial (COF), 3M (MMM), General Motors (GM), Northrop Grumman (NOC), MSCI (MSCI), United Airlines (UAL), Halliburton (HAL), Synchrony Financial (SYF), KeyCorp (KEY), Equifax (EFX), Genuine Parts (GPC), Hasbro (HAS)
Wednesday
• 7:00am ET | Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings
◦ Mega-Caps: Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCX), Philip Morris International (PM), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Texas Instruments (TXN), International Business Machines (IBM)
◦ Large & Mid-Caps: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), NextEra Energy (NEE), AT&T (T), Danaher (DHR), CME Group (CME), Elevance Health (ELV), CSX (CSX), Moody’s (MCO), Kinder Morgan (KMI), United Rentals (URI), Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB), Crown Castle International (CCI), Northern Trust (NTRS), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Omnicom Group (OMC), Packaging of America (PKG), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Rollins (ROL), Globe Life (GL)
Thursday
• 8:30am ET | Weekly Jobless Claims: This high-frequency labor market data gives insight into initial and continuing filings for unemployment benefits.
• 10:00am ET | September Leading Economic Index: This is an index composed of various economic indicators that have historically led changes in the broader economy.
• 11:00am ET | October Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed surveys manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings
◦ Mega-Caps: Procter & Gamble (PG)
◦ Large & Mid-Caps: Union Pacific (UNP), Blackstone Group LP (BX), Valero Energy (VLO), Western Digital (WDC), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Newmont Mining (NEM), Comcast (CMCSA), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Bloom Energy (BE), Honeywell International (HON), Nasdaq (NDAQ), CBRE Group (CBRE), Roper Technologies (ROP), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), PG&E (PCG), VeriSign (VRSN), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Dover (DOV), Dow Inc (DOW), PulteGroup (PHM), Snap-on (SNA), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), NVR (NVR), Allegion (ALLE), Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Friday
• 9:45am ET | October S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.
• 10:00am ET | October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Consumer feelings about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.
• 11:00am ET | October Kansas City Fed Services Activity: The Kansas City Fed surveys executives in the region’s services industry on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings
◦ Mega-Caps: American Express (AXP)
◦ Large & Mid-Caps: Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Schlumberger (SLB), Comfort Systems USA (FIX)
Note: Companies with at least $200 billion in market capitalization are classified as “Mega-Caps,” while others are shown in the “Large & Mid-Caps” sections.
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