What a Buy

Typically, I’d start a Fed column by discussing the rate move. This time, I’m going to start with what I believe is the more important part of today’s announcement.

Starting on Dec. 12, the Federal Open Market Committee will start buying Treasury bills again at a rate of $40 billion/month. This will last until April, when the rate of purchases will possibly come down to $20-$25 billion, according to Chair Jerome Powell.

Since this newest round of Treasury buying is coming only 11 days after the latest quantitative tightening (QT) effort ended, the message seems to be that the Fed tightened too far and needs to reverse course in order to support market liquidity.

That’s not to say that there is an obvious or broad reaching liquidity problem affecting stocks. At this point, there is not. But overnight funding markets (banks borrowing from each other and banks borrowing from the Fed) have shown recent signs of funding stress that likely led to this about-face.

For example, greater usage of the Fed’s standing repurchase facility — a backstop that allows banks in good standing to exchange Treasurys for cash overnight — suggests more banks are short on cash.

Standing Repo Facility Usage

Another force at play is the level of bank reserves. We spent most of the past three years in “abundant reserve” territory, but now we’re down to “ample reserve” territory, thanks to QT and a reverse repo facility that could no longer absorb it.

Although ample is where the Fed wants reserves to be, I believe they actually started to flirt with “scarce,” which required the Fed to act. Though there’s no specific threshold, the Fed starts to take notice as the spread between interest on reserve balances (dashed magenta) and the effective funds rate (blue) narrows.

Benchmark Interest Rates

Powell downplayed this T-bill purchasing announcement by explaining that:

•  engaging in some Treasury buying was the plan all along,

•  expanding the balance sheet regularly is necessary to support bank reserve balances, and

•  the Fed is trying to get ahead of April 15, when reserve balances drop temporarily because of taxes being paid.

The Fed is calling this move “reserve management purchases” to signal that this is not intended as a form of quantitative easing (QE).

Is That Good or Bad?

It’s complicated. The market liked it, the 2-year Treasury yield fell 10 basis points, and the S&P 500 finished in the green, with economically sensitive sectors such as Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary performing the best.

In the near-to-medium term, I think the message is bullish for stocks and short-term Treasury bonds. I also take this as an indication that the Fed is ready to engage in classic QE if it should become necessary. Given markets’ dependence on Fed driven liquidity, this is likely to be seen as a friendly move for risk assets.

However, it also runs the risk of stoking inflation and feeding more speculative behavior in markets. The effect is likely to be multifaceted.

Looking Ahead

A new Fed Chair will take office in May, and as of now we can only expect Powell’s replacement to be dovish on rates, which would align with the administration’s well-published wishes.

Outside of rate expectations, the Fed gives us a summary of their projections once per quarter. Today’s meeting included an update to those projections, and the tone was quite positive. Compared to its statement in September, the Fed expects 2026 growth to be stronger, inflation to be cooler, and unemployment to remain steady.

Fed Summary of Economic Projections for 2026

Given this picture, and the expectation for further (though not imminent) rate cuts, it’s difficult to be negative on the market or the economy. Despite the Fed acknowledging concerns about the labor market, officials seem confident that weakness can be stymied by supportive policy and a stable growth environment.

The consensus view right now is widely held across investors: There’s general positivity that growth will reaccelerate in 2026, the consumer will keep spending, inflation will stay contained, and markets have potential to produce attractive results, once again.

Sometimes, everyone thinking the same thing is a warning sign. But other times, the consensus view is right.

Want more insights from Liz? The Important Part: Investing With Liz Thomas, a podcast from SoFi, takes listeners through today’s top-of-mind themes in investing and breaks them down into digestible and actionable pieces.

SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance, and past performance is no indication of future success. This information isn’t financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on specific financial needs, goals and risk appetite.

Communication of SoFi Wealth LLC an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Liz Thomas is a Registered Representative of SoFi Securities and Investment Advisor Representative of SoFi Wealth. Form ADV 2A is available at www.sofi.com/legal/adv.

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If you’re one of the 22 million Americans who have subsidized health insurance through an Affordable Care Act plan, it’s hard to know what to do right now.

With just a few days left to choose coverage for 2026, Congress is still debating whether to let the COVID-era subsidies (aka enhanced premium tax credits) expire this year. Without them, average premium costs for those affected would more than double to $1,904, according to estimates from KFF, a nonprofit health policy firm.

It’s a bizarre limbo that can make planning ahead feel impossible, especially for the roughly 1.5 million people who stand to lose all tax credits because their households earn over 400% of the federal poverty level (aka the “subsidy cliff.”)

But there are a few things you can count on for next year, and with all the will-they-won’t-they headlines about extending the subsidies, you may have missed these other changes:

1) If you’re no longer eligible for subsidies because you’re over the 400% of poverty level, it’s probably going to count as a “hardship exemption,” meaning you’ll automatically qualify for a bare-bones catastrophic coverage plan — if there’s one available in your area. Catastrophic plans have lower premiums than other plans, but high deductibles. They are mainly meant to protect you if something serious happens.

2) The government is expanding access to tax-advantaged Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), which are powerful and underrated financial tools. A companion to a high-deductible plan, an HSA lets you use pretax money for eligible health expenses, so your out-of-pocket costs are automatically lower. (E.g. if you would otherwise pay 20 cents of every $1 in taxes, you get to use the full $1, instead of just 80 cents.) And the funds in an HSA never expire (unlike with a Flexible Spending Account,) so you don’t have to worry about wasting money you didn’t end up needing.

For 2026, HSAs are available with more plans, including any catastrophic or Bronze plan (Bronze plans also come with high deductibles but sometimes have even lower premiums than catastrophic plans.) The White House expects as many as 10 million Americans to opt for an HSA.

3) Dec. 15 is the last day to sign up if you want coverage to start Jan. 1, but you can enroll or change your selection until Jan. 15 for coverage effective Feb. 1. That means enrolling now won’t prevent you from changing your plan if the subsidies are extended or your circumstances change. And you will avoid a coverage gap.

(Use this KFF calculator to compare your costs with and without the enhanced tax credits.)

So what?

Most people on an ACA plan could see big increases in their healthcare premiums next year. If costs do end up doubling, one in four ACA enrollees said they’re very likely to go without insurance next year, according to a recent KFF poll.

But that should be a very last resort. Explore all your coverage options first, including whether a no-frills plan with an HSA could work. (Catastrophic plans aren’t available everywhere, but Bronze plans are.) Not only can an HSA help reduce the burden of deductibles, co-pays, or other out-of-pocket costs, but any funds you put in reduce your taxable income. In fact, the tax benefits are worth exploring even if you have an employer-based plan.

Related Reading

ACA Subsidy Cliff: How to Keep Premium Tax Credits (CNBC)

As ACA Deadline Approaches, Some Price-Sensitive Consumers May Consider Switching to Short-Term Plans (KFF)

Worried About Affording a Marketplace Health Plan in 2026? Tips for Shopping Smart During Open Enrollment (Triage Cancer)

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

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