The unofficial start of the fourth-quarter earnings season is here, and as is tradition, the nation’s financial titans will be leading the charge.

Results for companies including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) are critical because banks effectively act as the plumbing for the U.S. economy. Investors will be laser-focused on loan demand, credit card spending, and, perhaps most importantly, delinquency rates. Are consumers keeping up with their bills? Are businesses still borrowing to grow? Against forecasts for economic reacceleration in 2026, this information will help us gauge reality.

We’re also scheduled to receive the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which will go a long way in refereeing the debate about whether inflation is truly vanquished. A soft inflation reading would support the camp of Federal Reserve officials who want to keep cutting interest rates this year, while a hot number could hand the hawks the evidence they need to push for a pause.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

•  Fedspeak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will moderate a discussion with the CEO of Intercontinental Exchange and Chair of the NYSE. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will take part in a fireside chat at a North Carolina Bankers Association event. New York Fed President John Williams will deliver keynote remarks at a Council on Foreign Relations event.

Tuesday

•  December NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions.

•  December Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers.

•  October New Home Sales: While only a minority of home transactions in any given month come from new constructions, these home prices tend to be more cyclical and give insight into developing trends.

•  December Treasury Statement: This summarizes the U.S. federal government budget by tracking government revenues and expenditures.

•  Fedspeak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy on an MNI webcast. Barkin will take part in a moderated discussion at a CFO Society event.

•  Earnings: Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Delta Air Lines (DAL), JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Wednesday

•  November Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle.

•  November Retail Sales: This measures spending at retail stores and is a key indicator of consumer demand.

•  December Existing Home Sales: Most home transactions in any given month tend to come from the existing market, and as a result set the tone for the broader housing market.

•  Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

•  Fedspeak: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will discuss the economic outlook at a Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia event. Fed Governor Stephen Miran will speak at the Delphi Economic Forum in Athens. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a virtual event with the Wisconsin Bankers Association. Bostic will take part in a moderated discussion with the Atlanta Business Chronicle. Williams will deliver opening remarks at the regional Fed’s annual An Economy That Works for All event.

•  Earnings: Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC)

Thursday

•  November Import/Export Price Indexes: These indexes track the changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

•  January Empire State Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•  January Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•  Fedspeak: Bostic will deliver remarks at the Metro Atlanta Chamber’s Board of Directors meeting. Barkin will discuss the economic outlook at a Virginia Bankers Association event.

•  Earnings: BlackRock (BLK), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Morgan Stanley (MS)

Friday

•  January New York Services Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•  December Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The industrial sector accounts for much of the cyclical swings in economic activity.

•  January NAHB Housing Market Index: This index tracks how homebuilders feel about the current and future state of the single-family housing market.

•  October Building Permits and Housing Starts: Construction data is a leading indicator of economic activity.

•  January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.

•  Fedspeak: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will deliver a keynote address at an American Institute for Economic Research conference.

•  Earnings: M&T Bank (MTB), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), Regions Financial (RF), State Street (STT)

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The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

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Filing taxes can be a pain, but there’s a compelling reason to get a headstart this year: A surprisingly hefty refund might be waiting for you on the other side of that paperwork.

Tax breaks passed by Congress last summer could boost the average federal refund by $675, according to one analysis. For middle- and higher-income households, it could be a $1,000 bump.

Of course, tax refunds vary widely depending on your income and tax liability — and there’s no guarantee you won’t owe money instead — but this year’s refunds stand to be unusually large because the IRS didn’t update its income tax withholding tables after the tax breaks were retroactively applied to the 2025 tax year.

In short, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act added several new types of tax deductions, most of which can be taken in addition to the standard deduction amount (which was also increased.) Here’s how they could reduce your taxable income for 2025:

•  If you earned tips from a qualifying occupation (here’s a list,) you can deduct up to $25,000 in tip income as long as you had less than $150,000 in modified adjusted gross income (MAGI). This deduction, which can be taken on top of the standard deduction, gets smaller if your MAGI is higher than that.

•  If you work overtime, you can deduct the “half” portion of your “time-and-a-half” pay, up to $12,500. This can also be taken on top of the standard deduction, and the income limitations are the same as for tips.

•  If you’re a homeowner who lives in a high-tax state, the cap on SALT (state and local tax) deductions increased from $10,000 to $40,000, but only for taxpayers who itemize their deductions. This benefit phases out if you had over $500,000 in MAGI. (If you’re not sure if you’re better off itemizing or taking the standard deduction amount, consult a tax professional.).

•  If you borrowed money to buy a new American-made car last year, you can deduct up to $10,000 for the auto loan interest you paid as long as you meet certain eligibility criteria (it can’t be a used car, for example) and didn’t earn more than $100,000 in MAGI. This can be taken on top of the standard deduction and there’s a phaseout for higher incomes.

•  If you’re 65 or older, you can deduct an extra $6,000 as long as you didn’t have over $75,000 in MAGI. Again, this is in addition to the standard amount for seniors and a phaseout applies.

So what?

Since the average 2024 tax refund was over $3,100, the new tax breaks could feel like a windfall of over $3,800 for many Americans. But if you don’t have a plan, you might absorb it into your budget with little or nothing to show for it.

No matter how big or small, if you get a refund this year, make the most of it. You can still treat yourself, but you won’t regret using a solid chunk to pay down debt, bolster your emergency savings, or boost your retirement account.

Related Reading

Tax Refunds and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Tax Foundation)

Prepare to File in 2026: Get Ready for Tax Season with Key Updates, Essential Tips (IRS)

Trump Promises Largest Tax Refunds Ever in 2026 (Fox News)

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

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