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Why Are Mortgage Rates Up If the Fed Is Cutting Its Rate?

If you’re thinking about buying a house, you’re no doubt hoping mortgage rates will come down. Inflation has eased, and the Federal Reserve has started cutting its benchmark interest rate, right?

Yes, but the benchmark fed funds rate is not what drives mortgage rates — not directly anyway. And since the Fed’s last rate cut in December, the average 30-year mortgage rate has actually ticked higher, topping 6.9%, according to the latest national survey by Freddie Mac. This makes buying even more expensive than it was during the pandemic, when many could get a mortgage below 3%.

So why the disconnect? Because unlike rates for credit cards and many other loans, mortgage rates are tied to the bond market. Specifically, they follow the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds.

That makes investors the real driver of mortgage rates, and when it comes to bonds, it’s all about their expectations for inflation. When the risk of inflation rises, investors demand higher interest rates to compensate. And although inflation has subsided a lot since 2022, there’s still a lot of uncertainty about it. It’s even gotten a little worse, not better, in the past few months.

(Mortgages are also bundled and sold to investors as bonds, which adds a whole other layer to the rate equation. Here’s more about that if you want to get into those weeds.)

Ultimately, inflation risk is how the Federal Reserve ties back to mortgage rates. Because the Fed uses the fed funds rate to control inflation, investors are always reading Fed tea leaves. A speech from a Fed official or fresh data or news (like a presidential election) can change investor perceptions. Case in point: Over the past few years, look how much mortgage rates moved even when the fed funds rate didn’t change.

So what? Mortgage rates remain high because inflation remains unpredictable. Less than two years ago economists had forecast 30-year rates would be in the 4% range by now. Now they see something closer to 6.5% over the next few years.

While this is keeping the American dream of owning a home out of reach for many, the National Association of Realtors® reports that some prospective buyers seem to be starting to adapt. If you think you might be one of them, check out our Deep Dive on less conventional mortgage types. The math may surprise you.

Related Reading

•   The ‘Hidden Force’ That Can Bring Mortgage Rates Down (The Wall Street Journal via MSN)

•   Here’s Where Mortgage Rates Could Be Headed in 2025 (The Hill)

•   7 Ways to Secure a Lower Interest Rate Mortgage (SoFi)


photo credit: iStock/ArLawKa AungTun

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.


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Harvard University Tuition and Fees


Harvard University Tuition and Fees

Harvard University Tuition and Fees

On this page:

    By Susan Guillory

    (Last Updated – 01/2025)

    Total Cost of Attendance

    Harvard University is known for being one of the oldest (if not the oldest) institutions of higher learning in the United States. Harvard’s tuition and required fees for the 2023-2024 academic year were $59,076, which is significantly above the national average for four-year private nonprofit institutions of $41,540, according to CollegeData.com. A high number of students receive student loans or scholarships to cover this cost.

    Harvard Costs 2023-24

    Tuition & Fees

    $59,076

    Books & Supplies

    $1,000

    Room & Board

    $20,374

    Other Expenses

    $6,255

    Total Cost of Attendance

    $86,705

    Financial Aid

    Based on the data from the 2023-24 academic year, 72% of Harvard University’s first-time, full-time undergraduates received financial aid. It’s important to note that Harvard practices need-blind admissions, meaning financial need is not considered during the application process. This ensures that students from all income backgrounds have an equal opportunity to be accepted.

    Explore financial aid options: Massachusetts Student Loan & Scholarships.

    Generally, financial aid is monetary assistance awarded to students based on personal need and merit. Students who qualify for financial aid can use it to pay for college costs like tuition, books, and living expenses.

    The federal government is the largest provider of student financial aid. However, aid can also be given by state governments, colleges and universities, private companies, and nonprofits. The different types include:

    •  Scholarships: These can be awarded by schools and other organizations based on students’ academic excellence, athletic achievement, community involvement, job experience, field of study, or financial need.

    •  Grants: Generally based on financial need, these can come from federal, state, private, and nonprofit organizations.

    •  Work-study: This federal program provides qualifying students with part-time employment to earn money for expenses while in school.

    •  Federal student loans: This is money borrowed directly from the U.S. Department of Education. It comes with fixed interest rates that are typically lower than private loans.

    Colleges, universities, and state agencies use the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) to determine financial aid eligibility. The FAFSA can be completed online, but note that state, federal and school deadlines may differ.

    You can find other financial aid opportunities on databases such as:

    •  US Department of Education – Search for grants from colleges and universities by state

    •  College Scholarship Service Profile (CSS) – A global college scholarship application used by select institutions to award financial aid

    Recommended: The Differences Between Grants, Scholarships, and Loans

    Private Student Loans

    Based on the data from the 2023-24 academic year, 4% of Harvard University’s first-time, full-time undergraduates have federal student loans. The average amount of federal loans among these students is $5,101.

    Private college loans are funded by private organizations such as banks, online lenders, credit unions, some schools, and state-based, or -affiliated organizations. While federal student loans have interest rates that are regulated by Congress, private lenders follow a different set of regulations so their qualifications and interest rates can vary widely.

    What’s more, private loans have variable or fixed interest rates that may be higher than federal loan interest rates, which are always fixed. Private lenders may (but don’t always) require you to make payments on your loans while you are still in school, compared to federal student loans, which you don’t have to start paying back until after you graduate, leave school, or change your enrollment status to less than half-time.

    Private loans don’t have a specific application window and can be applied for on an as-needed basis. However, if you think you may need to take out a private loan, it’s a good idea to submit your FAFSA first to see what federal aid you may qualify for, since it generally has better rates and terms.

    If you’ve missed the FAFSA deadline or you’re struggling to pay for school during the year, private loans can potentially help you make your tuition payments. Just keep in mind that you will need enough lead time for your loan to process and for your lender to send money to your school.

    Recommended: Guide to Private Student Loans

    Projected 4-Year-Degree Price

    Based on the 2023-24 academic year, the estimated total cost of attendance for on-campus students at Harvard University is $86,705 per year. This includes tuition and fees, books and supplies, room and board, and other on-campus expenses. Over four years, this would amount to approximately $346,820. In comparison, the average cost for private school tuition and room and board in the U.S. is $60,420 a year (for 2023-24), according to CollegeData.com, totaling $241,680 for four years.

    This student loan and scholarship information may be valuable as you research schools and costs.

    Recommended: What is Considered Full Time Student

    Repay student loans your way.

    Find the monthly
    payment & rate that fits your budget.

    Undergraduate Tuition and Fees

    Harvard Costs 2023-24

    Tuition & Fees

    $59,076

    Room & Board

    $20,374

    Total Cost of Attendance

    $86,705

    The total cost of attendance at Harvard University for the 2023-2024 academic year is $86,794. This is significantly higher than the average cost of attendance for four-year private nonprofit institutions in the U.S., which is $60,420. However, it’s important to remember that Harvard offers generous financial aid packages to a large percentage of its students.

    Graduate Tuition and Fees

    Costs for 2023-24

    Tuition & Fees

    $55,440

    The tuition for graduate school at Harvard for the 2023-2024 academic year is $55,440 for tuition and fees. The average cost for tuition for graduate school in 2023-24 at a private institution in the U.S. was $43,980. Many students at Harvard opt for graduate loans to help cover their costs.

    💡 Quick Tip: Graduate student loans can help cover tuition, fees, and other education-related expenses.

    Cost per Credit Hour

    The tuition for full-time students in Harvard College is $54,032 per year. Typically, full-time students take 4 courses per semester, which translates to 32 credits per year. If we divide the total tuition by the number of credits, we get an approximate cost of $1,689 per credit hour, plus fees.

    For visiting undergraduate students, the cost per credit for 2024-2025 is $3,534. The cost for one to three courses is $14,138 per course. There is an additional student services fee of $1,767.

    Campus Housing Expenses

    Harvard Costs 2023-2024

    On-Campus

    Off-Campus

    Books & Supplies

    $1,000

    $1,000

    Room & Board

    $20,374

    $2,525/month*

    Other Expenses

    $6,255

    $6,255


    *Based on studio pricing. Average rate based on available apartments on Harvard’s off-campus housing website in 2024.

    In addition to Harvard University tuition, room and board is the next highest expense. View our student loans guide for help paying for it.

    There are 17 freshman dorms and 12 Houses for upper-level students. Freshmen generally live in suites with a common room and two to four bedrooms. Roommates are chosen by the university. Upperclass students are assigned to one of Harvard’s historic Houses, each of which serves as a residence to 350-500 students.

    Only a small percentage of students choose to live off-campus, and there are many apartments and homes for rent near campus. Harvard has partnered with private landlords and real estate agents to provide affordable housing to students. The average price for a studio in Cambridge is $2,000, though many are even higher. Keep in mind that leases may be for a full year, not a school year.

    Campus Housing Expenses

    While tuition is a significant expense at Harvard, room and board contribute substantially to the overall cost of attendance.

    On-campus housing provides various options, from traditional dorms for freshmen to historic Houses for upperclass students. While the exact cost varies depending on the specific room and meal plan chosen, it generally ranges from $18,000 to $22,000 per academic year.

    Off-campus housing is also an option, with average rent for a studio apartment in Cambridge around $2,000 per month, according to Harvard’s off-campus housing website. However, many apartments are priced even higher. Students considering off-campus housing should factor in additional expenses like utilities, groceries, and transportation.

    It’s important to note that these are estimates, and actual costs may vary. For the most up-to-date and precise information on campus housing expenses, prospective students should refer to official Harvard University resources and contact the Housing Office directly.

    [Explore off-campus living options at Harvard Off-Campus Housing.]

    Harvard Acceptance Rate

    Fall 2023

    Number of applications

    56,937

    Number accepted

    1,708

    Percentage Accepted

    3%

    With just 3% of applicants accepted, the Harvard acceptance rate is extremely competitive.

    Admission Requirements

    To be accepted as a student at Harvard, there are certain considerations you must meet. Some, like secondary school record, recommendations, and admission test scores, are required, while others, including secondary school GPA and school rank, are recommended. There is no required minimum GPA to qualify.

    Required:

    •  Secondary school record

    •  Recommendations

    •  Personal statement or essay

    Recommended:

    •  Secondary school GPA

    •  Secondary school rank

    •  Admission test scores

    The deadline to apply as a Restrictive Early Action candidate for the following school year is November 1. You will receive notification by mid-December. The deadline for Regular Decision candidates is January 1, with notification sent by the end of March. You can apply here.

    SAT and ACT Scores

    Harvard no longer requires SAT or ACT scores for classes of 2027-2030. Students who do not submit test scores will be considered equally for admissions as those who do.

    Although there are no required test scores for admissions, here are the scores by subject at the 25th and 75th percentile:

    Subject

    25th Percentile

    75th Percentile

    SAT Evidence-Based
    Reading/Writing

    740

    780

    SAT Math

    760

    800

    ACT Composite

    34

    36

    ACT English

    35

    36

    ACT Math

    33

    36

    Graduation Rate

    The Harvard graduation rate is high. Here is the graduation rate of students who began their studies in fall 2017: 97%.

    Post-Graduation Median Earnings

    Curious how much money you could make after graduating from Harvard? Median earnings after graduation are $102,000, according to the U.S. Department of Education’s College Scorecard. In contrast, the overall average for the class of 2024 is $68,516.

    Bottom Line

    At $86,705 a year, Harvard’s cost of attendance is relatively high for the country, but in exchange, you’ll get a world-class education. And Harvard isn’t just for the rich and elite: Because it’s need-blind, applicants from all financial backgrounds are welcome. The hard part is getting in.

    SoFi private student loans offer competitive interest rates for qualifying borrowers, flexible repayment plans, and no origination fees.

    View Your Rate

    SoFi Private Student Loans
    Please borrow responsibly. SoFi Private Student loans are not a substitute for federal loans, grants, and work-study programs. We encourage you to evaluate all your federal student aid options before you consider any private loans, including ours. Read our FAQs.
    Terms and conditions apply. SOFI RESERVES THE RIGHT TO MODIFY OR DISCONTINUE PRODUCTS AND BENEFITS AT ANY TIME WITHOUT NOTICE. SoFi Private Student loans are subject to program terms and restrictions, such as completion of a loan application and self-certification form, verification of application information, the student's at least half-time enrollment in a degree program at a SoFi-participating school, and, if applicable, a co-signer. In addition, borrowers must be U.S. citizens or other eligible status, be residing in the U.S., Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, or American Samoa, and must meet SoFi’s underwriting requirements, including verification of sufficient income to support your ability to repay. Minimum loan amount is $1,000. See SoFi.com/eligibility for more information. Lowest rates reserved for the most creditworthy borrowers. SoFi reserves the right to modify eligibility criteria at any time. This information is subject to change. This information is current as of 4/22/2025 and is subject to change. SoFi Private Student loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. NMLS #696891 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).
    SoFi Bank, N.A. and its lending products are not endorsed by or directly affiliated with any college or university unless otherwise disclosed.


    SoFi Loan Products
    SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.


    Non affiliation: SoFi isn’t affiliated with any of the companies highlighted in this article.

    External Websites: The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third-party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. Links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement.

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    Columbia University Tuition and Fees


    Columbia University Tuition and Fees

    Columbia University Tuition and Fees

    On this page:

      By Kelly Boyer Sagert

      (Last Updated – 01/2025)

      Columbia University, an Ivy League research institution in New York City, is one of the oldest and most respected universities in the country.

      If you’re considering applying to Columbia, here’s what you need to know about the admissions process, the Columbia acceptance rate, tuition, financial aid, and more.

      Total Cost of Attendance

      In 2023-24, Columbia University tuition and other expenses were as follows:

      •  Columbia tuition and fees: $69,045, a 4% increase over the previous year

      •  Books and supplies: $1,392, a 2% increase over the previous year

      •  On-campus room and board: $16,800, a 3.5% increase over the previous year

      •  Other expenses: $2,350, a .5% decrease over the previous year

      Total costs, then, are as follows:

      •  On-campus total: $89,587, a 4% increase over the previous year

      Financial Aid

      Columbia University is need blind, which means applications are considered without factoring in the financial needs of the student. In addition, the university meets 100% of demonstrated need for all qualifying first-year students and transfers. This can help applicants from lower and middle-class families who may not have the financial resources to pay for college expenses.

      In 2022-23, 56% of first-time, full-time undergraduates received some sort of financial aid. Here, specifically, is what they received:

      •  Grant or scholarship aid: 52% of students received this type of aid with an average award of $65,173

      •  Federal grants: 22% of students received this type of aid with an average award of $7,929

      •  Pell grants: 22% of students received this type of aid with an average award of $5,747

      •  Other federal grants: 12% of students received this type of aid with an average award of $3,932

      •  State/local: 6% of students received this type of aid with an average award of $4,798

      •  Institutional: 51% of students received this type of aid with an average award of $61,951

      •  Student loan aid: 7% of students received this type of aid with an average amount of $14,737

      •  Federal student loans: 6% of students received this type of aid with an average amount of $5,103

      •  Other student loans: 2% of students received this type of aid with an average amount of $35,376

      Generally, financial aid is monetary assistance awarded to students based on personal need and merit. Students that qualify for financial aid can use it to pay for college costs like tuition, books, and living expenses.

      Recommended: Scholarship Search – College Scholarships Finder Tool

      The federal government is the largest provider of student financial aid. However, aid can also be given by state governments, colleges and universities, private companies, and nonprofits. The different types include:

      •  Scholarships: These can be awarded by schools and other organizations based on students’ academic excellence, athletic achievement, community involvement, job experience, field of study, and financial need.

      •  Grants: Generally based on financial need, these can come from federal, state, private, and non-profit organizations.

      •  Work-study: This federal program provides qualifying students with part-time employment to earn money for expenses while in school.

      •  Federal student loans: This is money borrowed directly from the U.S. Department of Education. It comes with fixed interest rates that are typically lower than private loans.

      Colleges, universities, and state agencies use the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) to determine financial aid eligibility. The FAFSA can be completed online, but note that state and federal and school deadlines may differ.

      You can find other financial aid opportunities on databases such as:

      •  US Department of Education – Search for grants from colleges and universities by state

      •  College Scholarship Service Profile (CSS) – A global college scholarship application used by select institutions to award financial aid

      Recommended: The Differences Between Grants, Scholarships, and Loans

      Private Student Loans

      In 2022-24, 2% of Columbia students received private student loans with an average amount of $35,376.

      Private loans are funded by private organizations such as banks, online lenders, credit unions, some schools, and state-based or state-affiliated organizations. While Federal student loans have interest rates that are regulated by Congress, private lenders follow a different set of regulations so their qualifications and interest rates can vary widely.

      What’s more, private loans have variable or fixed interest rates that may be higher than federal loan interest rates, which are always fixed. Private lenders may (but don’t always) require you to make payments on your loans while you are still in school, compared to federal student loans which you don’t have to start paying back until after you graduate, leave school, or change your enrollment status to less than half-time.

      Private loans don’t have a specific application window and can be applied for on an as-needed basis. However, if you think you may need to take out a private loan, it’s a good idea to submit your FAFSA first to see what federal aid you may qualify for as it generally may have better rates and terms.

      If you’ve missed the FAFSA deadline or you’re struggling to pay for school throughout the year, private loans can potentially help you make your payments. Just keep in mind that you will need enough lead time for your loan to process and for your lender to send money to your school.

      Recommended: Guide to Private Student Loans

      Projected 4-Year-Degree Price

      In 2023-24, Columbia University’s cost of attendance was $89,587. Four years at this price would equal $358,348. Keep in mind, though, that there may be tuition increases. For instance, Columbia’s 2021-23 cost of attendance increased by 4.3% compared to the previous year ($82,584).

      Here’s some New York Student Loan & Scholarship Information for you.

      Repay student loans your way.

      Find the monthly
      payment & rate that fits your budget.

      Undergraduate Tuition and Fees

      In 2022-23, Columbia tuition and total expenses were:

      •  Columbia tuition and fees: $69,045

      •  On-campus total cost of attendance: $89,587

      In 2023-24, the average total cost for a private university in the U.S. was $60,420, which makes the cost of attendance at Columbia 14% higher.

      Graduate Tuition and Fees

      In 2023-24, graduate tuition at Columbia cost on average $53,576, with fees of $2,703, for a total of $56,279. In comparison, the national average cost for a master’s degree is $62,820. Graduate loans can help with this cost.

      Cost per Credit Hour

      Cost per credit hours (Columbia calls credit hours “points”) are available on the Columbia University website based on the area of study. For example, at Teachers College, the cost per credit hour in 2024-25 was estimated at $2,049, with a college fee of $518 per term.

      Campus Housing Expenses

      In 2023-24, Columbia room and board costs are:

      •  On-campus room and board: $16,800

      Off-campus housing in Manhattan can be pricey, with a 703-square-foot apartment going for an average of $4,614 monthly in early 2023. Leases are usually year-round rather than just for the academic year.

      Columbia University Acceptance Rate

      In fall 2023, 57,613 people applied to the school and the Columbia University acceptance rate was just 4%.

      Admission Requirements

      Application information is available with early action applications due by March 1 of the year prior to attendance, and regular decision applications due by May 15 of the academic year.

      Students must provide an official high school transcript, a counselor’s recommendation, a teacher recommendation from the academic area that a student wishes to pursue, and a mid-year report. Columbus University is test optional through at least the 2024-2025 school year.

      SAT and ACT Scores

      In fall 2023, 40% of applicants submitted SAT scores and 21% submitted ACT scores. The 25th and 75th percentile numbers were as follows:

      Subject

      25th Percentile

      75th Percentile

      SAT Evidence-Based
      Reading/Writing

      730

      770

      SAT Math

      760

      800

      ACT Composite

      34

      35

      ACT English

      35

      36

      ACT Math

      32

      35

      Columbia Graduation Rate

      The graduation rate for students who began their studies in fall 2015 at Columbia was:

      •  6 years: 95%

      Post-Graduation Median Earnings

      Median earnings for Columbia graduates is $102,000 a year. In comparison, the average annual earnings of college grads in the U.S. is $55,260.

      Bottom Line

      Columbia University is a respected educational institution. Although the tuition at this Ivy League school is higher than the average, the university has a need blind application process and seems to be generous with institutional aid. However, the Columbia acceptance rate is low—which means getting in may be your biggest challenge.

      SoFi private student loans offer competitive interest rates for qualifying borrowers, flexible repayment plans, and no origination fees.

      View Your Rate

      SoFi Private Student Loans
      Please borrow responsibly. SoFi Private Student loans are not a substitute for federal loans, grants, and work-study programs. We encourage you to evaluate all your federal student aid options before you consider any private loans, including ours. Read our FAQs.
      Terms and conditions apply. SOFI RESERVES THE RIGHT TO MODIFY OR DISCONTINUE PRODUCTS AND BENEFITS AT ANY TIME WITHOUT NOTICE. SoFi Private Student loans are subject to program terms and restrictions, such as completion of a loan application and self-certification form, verification of application information, the student's at least half-time enrollment in a degree program at a SoFi-participating school, and, if applicable, a co-signer. In addition, borrowers must be U.S. citizens or other eligible status, be residing in the U.S., Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, or American Samoa, and must meet SoFi’s underwriting requirements, including verification of sufficient income to support your ability to repay. Minimum loan amount is $1,000. See SoFi.com/eligibility for more information. Lowest rates reserved for the most creditworthy borrowers. SoFi reserves the right to modify eligibility criteria at any time. This information is subject to change. This information is current as of 4/22/2025 and is subject to change. SoFi Private Student loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. NMLS #696891 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).
      SoFi Bank, N.A. and its lending products are not endorsed by or directly affiliated with any college or university unless otherwise disclosed.


      SoFi Loan Products
      SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.


      Non affiliation: SoFi isn’t affiliated with any of the companies highlighted in this article.

      External Websites: The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third-party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. Links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement.

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      Liz Looks at: Beginning of Year Markets

      Off to the Races

      Only eight days into the new year and things have already been exciting in markets… depending on your definition of exciting. The moves really began at the end of 2024 and have persisted since.

      Let’s start with Treasury yields. As of Wednesday, January 8, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.70%, up 55 basis points since early December. The rise can be attributed to some strong economic and inflation data and commentary from the incoming administration on possible tariff policies. A move this large is notable, and something we’ve become used to during this business cycle.

      Perhaps the more important effect it has had is on the 2-year/10-year yield curve spread, which has steepened steadily for the last six weeks.

      Regardless of whether these have been bull steepeners or bear steepeners (with the terms bull & bear referring to the bond market, not the equity market), the rise in 10-year yields has put some stress on equity markets. Over that same six week period, the S&P 500 is down roughly 2%.

      It isn’t all bad news though. The 10-year rising due to stronger economic data can be a good sign, it’s just that the absolute level of yields right now is causing stocks to pause and reflect. Despite the broad market being down over that period, cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks, which sends the message that markets are not in fear mode at this point.

      Not to mention, market action has been bumpy with some very strong days interspersed; investors are in a waiting game until we have more policy clarity, which leaves markets at the mercy of headlines and data releases.

      Who’s to Lead the Pack in 2025?

      There have been some major rotations in markets over the past couple months, including between the equal weighted S&P 500 and the market-cap weighted S&P 500, with the latter taking center stage over recent periods.
      The equal weighted index, or what’s commonly referred to as the “average stock” had been doing quite well during the broadening out trade, and is still ahead of the market-cap weighted index over six months. However, recent outperformance of megacaps is shifting that trend. And it’s likely no surprise that the stocks leading that pack are the usual suspects in the Magnificent Seven stocks.

      Concentration in markets is back again, and although a force we’re accustomed to, it does pose risks to sentiment and market direction. An overreliance on just a handful of names presents the opportunity for markets to be at the mercy of those companies’ results, and reduces the number of stocks that are able to pick up the slack in the event of a pullback.

      For this reason, although I do believe the megacaps are generally good companies with bright futures, it is important to see some renewed strength from other parts of the index – namely, cyclical sectors such as Industrials, Financials, and Energy.

      Dollar Bills

      The last piece of this market puzzle that has been rather eye-popping is the recent strength in the U.S. dollar. It currently sits at its highest level since 2022 when the Fed began hiking rates and inflation hit a peak of 9.1%.

      This has increased currency volatility around the globe with most major currencies weakening against the dollar, and causing investors to wonder if there is a top in sight. No doubt, the dollar strength has happened in tandem with rising 10-year yields, and again much of the move has been driven by stronger economic and inflation data – especially in comparison to weaker data abroad – and commentary around tariff increases that may be coming.

      Since this recent strength has not been coupled with fear in markets, it’s not necessarily something to be fearful of and it’s important to note that we are still below the peak of 2022. Moreover, a possible upcoming boost to market liquidity from the Treasury General Account or a debt ceiling resolution could push the dollar back down a bit.

      Often, the reasons for dollar strength are more important than the level itself. As of now, the reasons are understandable and not riddled with defensive posturing, but this is certainly something to keep an eye on for the first quarter.

      Another year, another January that’s off to an interesting start. I always feel excited at the beginning of the year for all of the surprises that could be in store, and all of the things we’ll learn this year as investors. Happy trading to all.

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      SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance, and past performance is no indication of future success. This information isn’t financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on specific financial needs, goals and risk appetite.

      Communication of SoFi Wealth LLC an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Liz Young Thomas is a Registered Representative of SoFi Securities and Investment Advisor Representative of SoFi Wealth. Form ADV 2A is available at www.sofi.com/legal/adv.

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