April Showers. May Flowers?

Investors will navigate a busy week ahead, with a schedule that includes an always-important Federal Reserve meeting, a bevvy of corporate earnings reports, and economic data releases.

Collectively, these elements will help provide context on the post-Liberation Day economic landscape and potential market direction.

The main event is the Federal Reserve’s May 7 meeting. While market pricing suggests only an 8% chance that the Fed lowers its benchmark interest rate from the current 4.25%-4.50% range, there could still be some market-moving fireworks in the post-meeting statement or press conference.

Any commentary regarding tariffs will be a major focus point for investors, especially in light of last week’s negative GDP report that was distorted by a surge in imports and inventories.

The ongoing corporate earnings season adds another wrinkle. Though most of the mega-cap tech companies have already reported their earnings, reports from companies across various sectors will provide valuable ground-level perspectives on business health and outlooks amidst current economic conditions.

Finally, key economic data will offer fresh readings on the economy’s momentum. Following last Friday’s jobs report, this week we’ll see the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Despite the survey being so-called soft data (qualitative information collected through surveys), it remains valuable because the service sector constitutes a large portion of the U.S. economy. In the current environment, the survey could signal brighter days ahead or an early warning of intensifying storm clouds.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

•   April S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.

•   April ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.

•   Earnings: Clorox (CLX), Cummins (CMI), Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA), Ford (F), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Henry Schein (HSIC), Loews (L), Realty Income (O), ON Semiconductor (ON), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Tyson Foods (TSN), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Williams Companies (WMB), Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), American Electric Power (AEP), Assurant (AIZ)

Tuesday

•   March Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity.

•   Earnings: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), American Electric Power (AEP), Assurant (AIZ), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Arista Networks (ANET), Ball (BALL), Constellation Energy Co (CEG), Corpay (CPAY), Duke Energy (DUK), Devon Energy (DVN), Electronic Arts (EA), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), NortonLifeLock (GEN), Global Payments (GPN), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), IQVIA Holdings (IQV), Gartner (IT), Jacobs Engineering Group (J), Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY), Leidos Holdings (LDOS), Marriott International (MAR), Mosaic (MOS), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), TransDigm Group (TDG), Waters (WAT), WEC Energy Group (WEC), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Zoetis (ZTS), APA Corp (APA), Atmos Energy (ATO), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Bunge Global S.A. (BG), CDW (CDW), CF Industries Holdings (CF), AmerisourceBergen (COR), Charles River Laboratories International (CRL)

Wednesday

•   FOMC Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve will announce any changes to monetary policy after the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, in addition to providing commentary on the economy. It’s one of eight regularly scheduled meetings per year.

•   March Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

•   Earnings: APA Corp (APA), Atmos Energy (ATO), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Bunge Global S.A. (BG), CDW (CDW), CF Industries Holdings (CF), AmerisourceBergen (COR), Charles River Laboratories International (CRL), Corteva (CTVA), DoorDash (DASH), Dayforce Inc (DAY), Disney (DIS), Emerson Electric Co (EMR), Fortinet (FTNT), Johnson Controls International (JCI), MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX), NiSource (NI), NRG Energy (NRG), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Paycom Software (PAYC), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Bio-Techne (TECH), Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL), Trimble (TRMB), Uber (UBER), Verisk Analytics (VRSK), Vistra Energy (VST), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), ConocoPhillips (COP), EPAM Systems (EPAM), Evergy (EVRG), Expedia Group (EXPE), Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Alliant Energy (LNT), Microchip Technology (MCHP), McKesson (MCK), Match Group (MTCH)

Thursday

•   1Q Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: These measures provide a breakdown of how productive workers were per hour of work and at what cost.

•   March Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.

•   April New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: This is a measure of peoples’ expectations for inflation, jobs prospects, earnings growth, and more.

•   Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.

•   Earnings: Akamai Technologies (AKAM), ConocoPhillips (COP), EPAM Systems (EPAM), Evergy (EVRG), Expedia Group (EXPE), Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Alliant Energy (LNT), Microchip Technology (MCHP), McKesson (MCK), Match Group (MTCH), News (NWS), News (NWSA), ViacomCBS (PARA), Insulet (PODD), Solventum (SOLV), Sempra Energy (SRE), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), TKO Group Holdings Inc (TKO), Tapestry (TPR), Viatris (VTRS), Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc (WBD), Fox Class B (FOX), Twenty-First Century Fox Class A (FOXA), Simon Property Group (SPG), STERIS (STE), Applied Materials (AMAT), Cisco (CSCO), Deere & Company (DE), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Walmart (WMT), Copart (CPRT), Home Depot (HD), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Nordson (NDSN), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Medtronic (MDT), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Analog Devices (ADI), Intuit (INTU), Ralph Lauren (RL), Synopsys (SNPS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Ross Stores (ROST), Workday (WDAY), AutoZone (AZO), Agilent Technologies (A)

Friday

•   Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver a keynote address at the Reykjavík Economic Conference and participate in moderated Q&A. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a keynote address at the Reykjavík Economic Conference. Chicago Fed President will give opening remarks at a Fed Listens event. Fed Governor Michael Barr will give a keynote address at the Reykjavík Economic Conference. New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller will participate in a panel discussion called John Taylor and Taylor Rules in Policy. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will participate in a policy panel discussion at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference.

•   Earnings: Copart (CPRT), Home Depot (HD), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Nordson (NDSN), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Medtronic (MDT), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Analog Devices (ADI), Intuit (INTU), Ralph Lauren (RL), Synopsys (SNPS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Ross Stores (ROST), Workday (WDAY)

Want to see more stories like this?
On the Money is SoFi’s flagship newsletter
for all things personal finance.

Check it out

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

This article appeared in SoFi's On the Money newsletter. Not getting it? Sign up here.

The expression “living paycheck to paycheck” is thrown around a lot.

Most people use it to mean having just enough income to cover the necessities, and research shows it’s an unfortunate reality for millions of Americans.

But the definition is far more complicated, according to PYMNTS, a payments industry publication that’s been tracking people who identify themselves as living paycheck to paycheck since 2020.

PYMNTS found that a consistent majority of Americans consider themselves needing their next paycheck to meet their monthly obligations. But 25% of them do it predominantly by choice, and another 54% consider it a mix of choice and necessity. Just 21% say they have no other option.

And, they’re often high earners. Half of consumers earning $100,000 or more per year reported living paycheck to paycheck as of January, and many said they had no problems paying their bills.

Instead, what keeps them feeling stretched — and less able to save — is the cost of their kids, schooling, and discretionary expenses like vacations, social activities, clothes and eating out, they report. Especially those with higher incomes.

So what? You don’t have to be struggling financially to be caught in a paycheck-to-paycheck mindset. In addition to income, lifestyle and priorities can drive this cycle, and it’s a natural human tendency to spend what you make.

But if you have a choice, know that there are serious tradeoffs to falling into this pattern: On average, people who identify as living paycheck to paycheck have less readily-available savings and are more likely to carry a credit card balance, according to the PYMNTS study. This leaves them especially vulnerable to financial shocks and instability, particularly during economic downturns.

A high overhead can make it harder to build a healthy emergency savings and avoid accumulating high-interest credit card debt. But there are some very straightforward steps that can help break the paycheck-to-paycheck habit: Use a debit card instead of a credit card to help keep your spending in check, and split your direct deposit so a portion automatically goes to a savings account.

Related Reading

•   How Much of Your Paycheck Should You Save? (SoFi)

•   Living Paycheck to Paycheck: Definition, Statistics, How to Stop (Investopedia)

•   Living Paycheck to Paycheck​? Here Are 5 Ways to Break the Cycle (Yahoo Finance)

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

Liberation Day Fallout

President Trump finally announced his long-awaited tariff plans on April 2. The specifics shocked investors: A 10% baseline tariff on imports from nearly all trading partners, with “reciprocal” tariffs for specific countries layered on top.

Aimed at reducing trade deficits and boosting domestic industry, these tariffs were in addition to existing tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminum. All combined, they would represent the largest tax hike as a percentage of GDP in recent U.S. history.

The market reaction was immediate and severe. Stock indices plunged and market volatility surged, reflecting investor anxiety not seen since early 2020. The U.S. dollar also weakened 4.8% despite its reputation as a safe haven currency, suggesting growth concerns as well as foreign selling of U.S. assets due to rising political risks.

By April 9, the administration had announced a 90-day pause on the higher reciprocal tariffs for most countries, though tit-for-tat retaliation between the U.S. and China led to tariffs on Chinese goods being increased to 145%. That more than offset the reciprocal pause, yet investors focused on the administration appearing to back away from a global trade war; the S&P 500 rebounded 9.5% in one of the best days for stocks since 1927, before rising an additional 2.0% to finish the month.

The Dollar and Stocks

Front-Running the Tariffs

Escalating tariff announcements throughout early 2025 appear to be significantly influencing economic behavior. For instance, durable goods orders jumped by a robust 9.2% in March (vs. consensus of 2.0%), while the goods trade deficit ballooned to $162b (vs. consensus of $145b).

Monthly Goods Trade Balance

This surge has lent credence to the idea that consumers and businesses are “front-running” the tariffs – purchasing goods before anticipated price hikes take effect. A pull-forward of demand could boost spending and make the economy seem stronger in the short-term, while contributing to a sharper economic slowdown later in the year.

Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is caught between a rock and a hard place. Tariffs already pose a dual challenge of potentially higher inflation and weaker spending, but ambiguity on the magnitude of the demand pull-forward, coupled with the unpredictable trajectory of trade policy, make it difficult to have conviction on an outlook.

For Fed officials that continue to emphasize their data-dependence, that means preemptive interest rate cuts are unlikely. Instead, the central bank will probably remain cautious and delay any policy easing until a clearer picture of economic conditions emerges.

Market Recap

Asset Returns

April 2025 Sector Total Returns

Macro

•   President Trump announced a baseline 10% universal tariff and reciprocal tariffs on other nations on April 2, before delaying the reciprocal tariffs a week later for 90 days.

•   In tit-for-tat retaliation between China and the U.S., tariffs on Chinese goods imports were raised to 145%.

•   Q1 GDP growth came in at an annualized -0.3%, as an import surge ahead of expected tariffs led to net exports subtracting 4.8 percentage points from growth.

•   Q1 core PCE inflation came in at 3.5% q/q, above the consensus expectations of 3.1% and the prior 2.6%.

•   April consumer confidence plunged to multi-year lows, according to data from both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board.

•   Regional Fed bank surveys of executives from manufacturing and service firms indicated the weakest level of business activity since the 2008-09 and Covid recessions.

Equities

•   In one of the sharpest intramonth reversals ever, the S&P 500 declined 11.2% from the start of the month through April 8, before rebounding 11.8% through the end of the month.

•   Energy stocks underperformed the broader market by the most since March 2020.

•   Growth stocks outperformed value stocks by 4.8 percentage points, the most since December 2024.

•   The VIX Index closed at 52.3 on April 8, the highest level since April 2020.

Fixed Income

•   On an intraday basis, the 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% on April 9, the most since November 2023.

•   High Yield corporate bond spreads widened by 37 basis points, bringing spreads to their widest levels since October 2023.

•   10-year breakeven inflation expectations fell from 2.37% to 2.24%, while inflation-adjusted Treasury yields rose from 1.84% to 1.94%.

View PDF

Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Market returns will fluctuate, and current performance may be lower or higher than the standardized performance data quoted.

SoFi Everyday Cash Rewards Credit Card Terms & Conditions