Unbelievable Rally

The stock market rally we’ve seen since April 8 has been astonishing, and while sputtering a bit, it looks to be hanging in there. Fears of a breakdown intensified last week, as the S&P 500 briefly fell below the 78.6% retracement level of 5896. Despite that brief hiccup, the index was able to bounce off of the 200-day moving average and get back above 5900 on May 27.

The fact that support held suggests that while there isn’t enough buying demand at the moment to take stock indices back to their all-time highs, there are enough investors willing to buy the dip to prevent any major drawdowns.

Of course, certain parts of the market have performed differently in this recovery: While the broad market is +5.9% in May thus far, the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors are +10.7% and +9.8%, respectively. Drilling down further, the automobiles (+24.3%, Consumer Discretionary) and semiconductors (+20.7%, Information Technology) industry groups have been leading the pack. Renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has also been a boon for these high-growth parts of the market.

May S&P 500 Sector Total Returns

Beneath the surface, however, trading volumes have been generally muted. While a rally on low volume isn’t inherently negative, it does suggest a lack of broad conviction in the durability of the rally. In these environments, systematic traders and algorithms can play a bigger role in market direction, especially when specific technical levels are breached or momentum signals are triggered.

For investors who were (or still are) underinvested after the upheaval of the last two months, that could make the “pain trade” still higher, potentially forcing sidelined capital back into the market and adding more fuel, even if conviction isn’t widespread. Still, a foundation built on concentrated leadership and low-volume trading leaves the market susceptible to sharp reversals.

Elephant in the Room

It’s not an exaggeration to say that investor sentiment and stock prices aren’t fully in tune with each other at the moment. Despite the major rally since the April 8 bottom, and the fact that the S&P 500 is now just 3.8% off its highs, investors remain cautious.

For instance, the latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment at 37.7% versus bearish sentiment at 36.7% — the first time the bulls outnumbered the bears since the end of January. While the bullish investor reading was in-line with its historical average, bearish sentiment remained above average.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the “fear gauge,” tells a similar story. It’s below the panic highs in April when it surged to 52.33, but the current value of 19.23 remains above 2023-24 levels — and well above the low of 11.86 set last year.

Fear Is Receding

For the contrarians, the rapid improvement in sentiment could be a negative signal. Has uncertainty ebbed or are investors too complacent? If negative catalysts were to emerge, the snap back from somewhat positive to pessimistic could be swift.

Known Unknowns

Geopolitical tensions and broader economic uncertainties are casting a long shadow, and it’s not like investors aren’t aware of it.

Tariffs have gotten the bulk of investor attention, and while they’ve been delayed for 90 days, how this eventually plays out is unclear. There’s the persistent threat of re-escalation or new trade disputes (for example, with the European Union, given President Trump’s comments last week about a possible 50% tariff), but market price action suggests investors are pretty confident these issues will be resolved without much economic consequence.

This dynamic effectively makes tariff policy a primary short-term volatility switch for markets. Headlines can trigger immediate and amplified reactions, potentially creating a “headline risk premium.” It also can affect the economy, since businesses and consumers will buy things ahead of tariffs to front-run higher prices as we’ve seen this year:

•   Front-running in March to get ahead of April tariffs

•   Less buying in April and early May as tariffs on Chinese goods surged

•   Recent delay on Chinese tariffs likely leading to another surge of buying activity

It seems probable that there could be another slowdown in spending once the front-running ends, especially if tariffs eventually move higher again.

Beyond tariffs, Russia, Iran and Venezuela loom large. The countries are important players in global oil markets, and discussions have swirled around the possibility of sanctions being lessened or intensified on them. Sanctions relief could lead to more oil supply and lower prices, while tougher sanctions could have the opposite effect.

WTI Oil Prices

Market timing is already exceptionally challenging, but in a highly fluid and event-driven environment where markets can swing dramatically based on a single headline, it’s basically impossible.

Maintaining a well-diversified portfolio that is aligned with your own risk tolerance and long-term financial goals — and resisting the powerful urge to make reactive decisions based on the daily news flow — is crucial. Having that strategic, long-term mindset will help filter out the inevitable market noise and better weather periods of volatility.

Want more insights from SoFi’s Investment Strategy team? The Important Part: Investing With Liz Thomas, a podcast from SoFi, takes listeners through today’s top-of-mind themes in investing and breaks them down into digestible and actionable pieces.

SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance, and past performance is no indication of future success. This information isn’t financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on specific financial needs, goals and risk appetite.

Communication of SoFi Wealth LLC an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Mario Ismailanji is a Registered Representative of SoFi Securities and Investment Advisor Representative of SoFi Wealth. Form ADV 2A is available at www.sofi.com/legal/adv.

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