While the Thanksgiving holiday typically signals a quiet, low-volume period for markets, the fallout from this year’s government shutdown means we could see more volatility ahead of our turkeys and tofurkeys.
After finally receiving the government’s delayed – and mixed – September employment report last week, investors will be looking for reads on inflation and the health of the consumer and businesses.
A new economic data schedule for this shortened trading week is stuffed with important releases that would have been more spread out if the government hadn’t shut. Confirmed on the calendar is the delayed Producer Price Index (PPI), which will give us a crucial check on wholesale inflation. We’ll also get reports on retail sales and durable goods orders.
It’s this data dump that could exacerbate market volatility. Investors have to digest a significant amount of backward-looking but vital information while market liquidity will be drying up fast. The stock market will be closed Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, and have a shortened session on Friday.
Economic and Earnings Calendar
Monday
• October Chicago Fed National Activity Index: This is a monthly index put together that incorporates 85 indicators from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories.
• November Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings: Agilent Technologies (A), Keysight Technologies (KEYS)
Tuesday
• November Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• September Retail Sales: This measures spending at retail stores and is a key indicator of consumer demand.
• September Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle.
• September FHFA House Price Index: This is a broad measure of single-family house prices released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
• November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• November Richmond Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• November Conference Board Consumer Confidence: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on job availability and the state of the labor market.
• November Dallas Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings: Analog Devices (ADI), Autodesk (ADSK), Best Buy Co (BBY), Dell Technologies (DELL), HP (HPQ), NetApp (NTAP), JM Smucker (SJM), Workday (WDAY)
Wednesday
• September Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.
• November Chicago Business Barometer: The barometer provides information on U.S. economic activity and business conditions, consisting of seven activity indicators and three buying policy indicators.
• Fed Beige Book: This report is released eight times per year and tracks the state of the economy based on qualitative information.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings: Deere & Company (DE)
Thursday
• Markets will be closed on Thanksgiving.
Friday
• Markets will close at 1pm ET.
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