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The government shutdown continues this week and there’s little sign of a near-term resolution. With betting markets expecting it to drag on for weeks, investors will need to continue navigating through an economic data fog. Two important sources of clarity will help pierce through the cloud, however.

First and foremost: Though most government data is on hold during the shutdown, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical exception. Due to its importance in calculating annual cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security benefits, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced it’ll be releasing the report on Friday. Already the most tracked by market participants, this report is even more important while investors are making due without other economic data.

And we can’t forget about corporate America. The pace of third-quarter earnings reports picks up significantly this week, with a host of companies from various sectors set to share their results. These reports will provide a real-time, bottom-up perspective on the health of the economy, straight from those who are on the business front lines.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Most releases involving government data will not be released while the shutdown is ongoing.

Monday

•  September Leading Economic Index: This is an index composed of various economic indicators that have historically led changes in the broader economy.

•  Earnings: Steel Dynamics (STLD), W R Berkley (WRB)

Tuesday

•  October Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•  Earnings: Chubb (CB), Capital One Financial (COF), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Danaher (DHR), Equifax (EFX), Elevance Health (ELV), EQT (EQT), General Electric (GE), General Motors (GM), Genuine Parts (GPC), Halliburton (HAL), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Coca-Cola (KO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), 3M (MMM), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Netflix (NFLX), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Omnicom Group (OMC), PACCAR (PCAR), PulteGroup (PHM), Philip Morris International (PM), Pentair (PNR), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Texas Instruments (TXN)

Wednesday

•  Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

•  Earnings: Amphenol (APH), Avery Dennison (AVY), Boston Scientific (BSX), Crown Castle International (CCI), CME Group (CME), FirstEnergy (FE), Globe Life (GL), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), International Business Machines (IBM), Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Lennox International (LII), Lam Research (LRCX), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Moody’s (MCO), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Northern Trust (NTRS), NVR (NVR), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Packaging of America (PKG), Raymond James Financial (RJF), AT&T (T), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Tesla (TSLA), United Rentals (URI), Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB)

Thursday

•  September Chicago Fed National Activity Index: This is a monthly index put together that incorporates 85 indicators from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories.

•  September Existing Home Sales: Most home transactions in any given month tend to come from the existing market, and as a result set the tone for the broader housing market.

•  October Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•  Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits.

•  Earnings: Allegion (ALLE), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), Baker Hughes (BKR), Blackstone Group LP (BX), CBRE Group (CBRE), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Physicians Realty Trust (DOC), Dover (DOV), Dow Inc (DOW), Ford (F), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), GE Vernova (GEV), Hasbro (HAS), Honeywell International (HON), Intel (INTC), Mohawk Industries (MHK), Newmont Mining (NEM), Norfolk Southern (NSC), PG&E (PCG), Pool (POOL), Roper Technologies (ROP), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Textron (TXT), Union Pacific (UNP), Valero Energy (VLO), VeriSign (VRSN), West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)

Friday

•  September Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers.

•  October S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.

•  September New Home Sales: While only a minority of home transactions in any given month come from new constructions, these home prices tend to be more cyclical and give insight into developing trends.

•  October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.

•  October Kansas City Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•  Earnings: Edwards Lifesciences (EW), General Dynamics (GD), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Procter & Gamble (PG)

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Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

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Do you know your net worth?

We know that Elon Musk’s topped $500 billion recently, but two-thirds of us don’t keep tabs on our own net worth, CreditKarma research suggests.

In fact, many Americans think net worth only applies to celebrities and other rich people.

In reality, no matter your circumstances, net worth is a valuable measure of your financial situation. Tracking it helps you gauge your progress in a way that your income or checking account balance doesn’t. And it can show you how you stack up against others at similar points in their lives.

But what exactly is net worth? Think of it as a snapshot of your total financial value, determined by adding up the value of everything you own (assets like cash, investments, and real estate) and then subtracting whatever you owe (liabilities like student loans, credit card debt, or a mortgage). It may change frequently, but generally the idea is to grow your net worth over your lifetime — at least until retirement.

The typical (median) net worth of Americans in their 30s is $24,247, according to August data from Empower, a large retirement plan firm. It jumps to $75,719 for people in their 40s, $191,857 for people in their 50s and $290,447 for those in their 60s before dropping to $233,085 for folks in their 70s — the age most people are using their retirement savings. (Note: If you’ve seen higher figures cited elsewhere, they’re likely averages rather than medians, which remove the effect of outliers.)

Since the pandemic boom in real estate values, homeownership has become a significant driver of net worth, as have rising stock prices. U.S. households’ combined net worth has shot up by more than $65 trillion since March 2020, reaching $176.3 trillion as of the second quarter of this year, according to the Federal Reserve. In just that final quarter, it climbed $7.1 trillion, or 4.2% — the biggest quarterly jump since 2021.

So what? Tracking your net worth can give you clarity and direction about your financial health that you may not get otherwise. While it can be easier to have a higher net worth when you have a higher income, your net worth is also a reflection of what you do with your income and assets and how much debt you take on.

Think about a high earner who’s also a big spender. Let’s say they choose to live beyond their means, racking up debt rather than investing in their future or building equity in a home that appreciates in value. (Four in 10 American workers earning over $300,000 consider themselves living paycheck-to-paycheck, according to a July survey from Goldman Sachs.)

Then consider someone with half as much income who saves more than they spend. They might prioritize their 401(k) match or fixing up a house they inherited from their parents.

Despite the vastly different incomes, the modest earner could actually have a higher net worth, putting them in a better position to send their kids to college, retire comfortably, or reach other long-term goals.

The bottom line: Even if your paycheck and credit card balance aren’t where you want them to be, make a point to calculate your net worth on a regular basis. (An online calculator like SoFi’s can help). And if you’re young and it’s negative — meaning you have more debts (e.g. student loans) than assets — that’s not necessarily a bad thing. What matters more is that your net worth is heading in a positive direction.

Monitoring your net worth can reinforce healthy habits, motivating you to budget your spending, pay down debt, and make the most of your savings. (Maybe you put savings into a high-yield account, invest it, or establish passive income streams, for example.) And measuring your progress can be a real confidence-booster, too. You might even discover your net worth is higher than you think.

Related Reading

Negative Net Worth? Here Are 3 Things You Can Do to Fix It (Yahoo Finance)

The One Financial Number You Shouldn’t Ignore: Your Net Worth (Investopedia)

When Does Home Equity Count in Your Net Worth? (SoFi)

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

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Oooh Shiny

Gold has always been synonymous with luxury. Jewelry, family heirlooms, treasure, you name it. In the distant past, it was even used as currency. Yet for many modern investors, gold occupies an uncertain space. Unlike stocks or bonds, it doesn’t offer cash flows or interest payments, and unlike many major commodities, it has few productive use-cases.

In markets, however, price is the ultimate arbiter of truth, and what’s been happening in gold markets has been a sight to behold. After steadily climbing in value in 2023 and 2024, price appreciation is now accelerating at a breakneck pace, naturally capturing headlines and intense interest among retail investors. Given this newfound attention, how should investors approach gold and its place within an investment portfolio? To get to the bottom of this, let’s start with the basics.

One common critique of gold is that it offers no real yield – “It’s just a shiny rock,” many say. That’s valid, and yet it’s averaged annual price appreciation of 8.1% since 1972. Clearly, there’s something about gold.

Of course, return is only one side of the equation. The other is risk, and another common critique is that gold is too unpredictable and volatile to warrant a meaningful allocation in an investment portfolio.

Gold certainly can exhibit significant price swings in the short term — especially considering the wonky supply-demand dynamics of commodity trading — but longer-term perspective provides crucial context. Since 1972, gold’s annualized volatility has been approximately 19.1%, somewhat higher than the S&P 500’s 15.4% over the same period.

Annualized Statistics

But even that isn’t the entire story. Diversifying is about allocating your money across sectors, geographies, and assets, but it’s not just about owning different assets. It’s also about owning assets that behave differently in different environments.

In other words, correlation. Two assets that have the same risk-return profile over the same period of time can actually have diversification benefits if they are weakly or negatively correlated to each other. On the other hand, two assets with wildly different risk-return profiles can have little diversification benefit if they have a strong positive correlation.

Gold has a famously unstable correlation to stocks (-0.01 since April 2021), which supports the idea that it adds a je ne sais quoi to portfolios. It has allowed gold to perform well across different macroeconomic environments, acting as a safe haven during periods of financial stress and as a hedge alongside other real assets during bouts of inflation.

Same Metal, Different Drivers

Over the past two decades, one of gold’s strongest drivers was its inverse correlation with real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) interest rates. The inverse correlation is because, as we’ve noted, gold is a non-yielding asset. In other words, its real yield is and always will be 0% (technically slightly negative due to storage costs, but that’s just being nitpicky). As interest rates decline, that 0% becomes incrementally more attractive, and as we saw in 2020, real Treasury yields can even fall into negative territory! That 0% starts to look a lot better in those situations, doesn’t it?

Gold Is Inversely Correlated With Interest Rates

This long-standing relationship has broken down in recent years, however. Even though real 10-year yields have increased to 1.73%, well above prior year levels, gold has rallied to all-time highs. The definitive break in this relationship can be traced to the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The U.S. and its allies imposed sweeping financial sanctions, including freezing nearly half of the Central Bank of Russia’s foreign currency reserves.

This weaponization of the U.S. dollar triggered a strategic pivot among global central banks to reduce exposure to the dollar and its associated financial infrastructure. The drumbeat of global upheaval since then has only furthered that trend, with gold being the primary beneficiary. Unlike Treasuries or other foreign currency reserves, physical gold held in a country’s vaults can’t be easily frozen or seized. It’s a neutral, universally accepted store of value, which makes it attractive in an uncertain world.

The scale of this shift is staggering. Before sanctions, central banks accounted for 11% of gold demand, but since then central bank demand for gold has doubled.

Quarterly Purchases of Gold by Central Banks

What’s most important about this shift is that unlike most buyers of gold (or really any commodity), central banks and government entities are fundamentally price-insensitive. They’re accumulating gold to buffer foreign reserves against perceived long-term geopolitical risks. This steady sovereign demand effectively has put more of a floor under gold prices, evidently more than offsetting the traditional headwind from high real yields.

Gold Rush

One would think that the increase in gold prices would have also enticed retail investors to increase their allocation to the asset, but ETF holdings of gold actually declined 24.3% in 2022 through mid-2024, likely driven in part by the old interest rate playbook.

With investors adapting to this new world, gold has hit a second gear with retail and institutional investors alike now seemingly returning in force. September marked the largest monthly inflow into global gold-backed ETFs on record, capping the strongest quarter for inflows.

Broadening of the buyer base from sovereign to financial participants has helped boost gold prices even further. Year-to-date price returns now stand at 59.9% as of October 15, one of the best years on record. Despite the strong price momentum, however, total holdings in gold ETFs are still 12.3% below their highest levels in 2020-21. A simple read here might suggest there could still be some room to run.

Investors Are Chasing Gold Prices

Looking at gold’s relationship to other assets can help provide some color on the character (for lack of a better word) of the market backdrop. One such relationship is the ratio between copper and gold prices. Comparing copper, an industrial metal that thrives when the global growth backdrop is strong, to the ultimate safe-haven asset can signal how market participants view things. The ratio is at its lowest levels ever, suggesting a decidedly fearful, risk-averse tone.

Copper/Gold Ratio

Of course, periods of major upheaval like the last few years can disrupt longstanding relationships, blurring the line between signal and noise. Nevertheless, a defensive message here makes sense given all that’s occurring in the world – ongoing global trade upheaval, raging budget deficits, and currency debasement, just to name a few.

To Allocate or Not to Allocate

We’re left with a few takeaways.

1.   Gold’s long-time role as a portfolio diversifier not only remains intact, but might be more critical than ever in an era where inflation is sticky and stock-bond correlations might not be negatively correlated like in the last few decades.

2.   Global central banks have emerged as a powerful and price-insensitive source of demand for gold that is likely not going away anytime soon.

3.   Market signals suggest that investors have priced in, and are continuing to price in, the changing dynamics around gold.

Some of the best investments often involve stories where long-term trends collide with short-term catalysts. The secular story behind gold demand is clear enough, while the prospect for further interest rate cuts or a slowdown in GDP growth could push real Treasury yields lower, which (in a throwback to the old playbook) could be further fuel for the precious metal.

No one individual’s financial journey is identical. Risk tolerance differs. Life plans differ. But generally speaking, a strategic allocation to gold in investment portfolios just makes sense right now.

Want more insights from SoFi’s Investment Strategy team? The Important Part: Investing With Liz Thomas, a podcast from SoFi, takes listeners through today’s top-of-mind themes in investing and breaks them down into digestible and actionable pieces.

SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance, and past performance is no indication of future success. This information isn’t financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on specific financial needs, goals and risk appetite.

Communication of SoFi Wealth LLC an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Mario Ismailanji is a Registered Representative of SoFi Securities and Investment Advisor Representative of SoFi Wealth. Form ADV 2A is available at www.sofi.com/legal/adv.

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