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This article appeared in SoFi's On the Money newsletter. Not getting it? Sign up here.

After months without much to go off, we’re finally getting a clearer picture of the state of the U.S. economy.

The first fresh data reports since the government shutdown suggest the economy is cooling, but could be worse. Last week the November inflation reading was lower than economists had feared, and the latest retail sales figures showed consumers are still willing to spend some money, even if they’re watching every dollar. At the same time, unemployment has ticked up, and the job market is stagnating.

The readings “point toward an economy that’s slumping,” said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School.

Here’s a brief rundown of what we know.

Unemployment is on the rise and the job market is stalled

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% in November, the highest it’s been in over four years, though still low compared to a big chunk of the 2000s. And the job market has yet to recover the momentum it lost this spring. After 105,000 jobs were lost in October (largely because of the government shutdown), the economy added 64,000 jobs in November. But we’re still almost exactly where we were in April.

“One month it’s up, one month it’s down, but the net is we’re not going anywhere,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, said on a Moody’s podcast last week.

Looking at an industry breakdown, most of the November gains came in health care and social assistance, areas that tend to be recession-proof. Construction companies also added jobs, but there were fewer jobs in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing.

The report is “modestly reassuring,” said Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, which manages exchange-traded funds with $70 billion in assets. But “the big question perhaps for 2026 is whether the job market will thaw or whether it cracks.”

Prices hikes have eased

The inflation rate (aka change in the Consumer Price Index) eased in November, slowing to 2.7% from 3% in September and surprising economists who had expected it to go up — to 3.1%.

While some questioned whether the rate was skewed by the gap in data collection during the shutdown (there was no reading for October), it could mean that fears about the effect of tariffs have been overblown. On the other hand, the impact of tariffs may yet to be fully realized.

The data could reflect “pricing decisions being delayed until the Supreme Court delivers a verdict on the tariffs, or even pricing decisions simply being delayed until the New Year,” wrote Dave Sloan, a senior economist at Continuum Economics.

That said, should this trend bear out, it could ease the strain on stretched consumers and give the Federal Reserve more room to cut benchmark interest rates again next year — a move that would help make borrowing more affordable.

Consumers are still spending, but cautiously

While retail sales were flat in October, declining auto sales overshadowed increases in furniture, electronics, and sporting goods, suggesting that shoppers have become more selective, but are far from tapped out.

“Consumers look like they took advantage of early holiday season sales to hunt for bargains,” wrote Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist for BMO Economics.

So what?

The economy is in a “muddle-through” mode defined by caution rather than crisis. While we seem to have avoided the inflationary spike that many feared (at least so far,) we have also lost the post-pandemic engine of growth. The job market isn’t collapsing, but it’s not a symbol of resilience anymore either.

Related Reading

Consumers Are Feeling Gloomy About the Economy. Here’s Why They’re Spending Anyway (CNBC)

How Workers Will Adapt in the AI Era (TIME via AOL.com)

Guilt-Free Tweaks to Trim Your Holiday Budget (SoFi)

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

OTM20251222SW

Finance is changing. Digital assets are moving into the mainstream, reshaping how we think about money, and bringing their features – speed, lower costs, and greater independence – to anyone with an internet connection.

Digital assets can operate outside traditional systems, giving users more direct control over their money – and by extension, their overall financial portfolio.

What Sets Crypto Apart

To think about how digital assets may fit with your broader financial goals, let’s consider what sets them apart.

•  Cryptocurrency exists entirely online and generally operates independently of a central bank or government. This can theoretically insulate it from monetary policy, interest rate changes, and inflation that affect the value of traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar.

•  The crypto market is highly speculative, largely unregulated and extremely volatile. Crypto prices are driven mainly by supply, demand, and investor sentiment, while stock prices tend to reflect company earnings, the economy, and business fundamentals. Digital assets also trade 24/7, while the New York Stock Exchange is open only six and a half hours on weekdays.

•  Crypto prices have historically shown relatively low correlation with traditional financial markets such as stocks (meaning they don’t tend to move in lockstep with the stock market), though the link has strengthened as crypto has moved further into the mainstream.

How to Think About Your Finances, Crypto and Stablecoin

Diversification is already a key investing principle: In short, it means avoiding putting all your eggs in one basket. The same idea applies when deciding whether crypto or stablecoins belong in your financial life. Rather than thinking of crypto as “all or nothing,” the real question is how much, if any, exposure makes sense for your goals and risk tolerance.

Your financial portfolio includes everything you own: Your checking and savings accounts, cash, credit cards, retirement savings, and investment accounts as well as physical assets like your car and home. If you add crypto, it becomes one more bucket.

But crypto comes with specific risks and considerations: Regulations are still evolving, much of the market remains unregulated, and price swings can be extreme. In October 2025, for example, Bitcoin, the most prominent digital currency, fell about 7% in a single day as markets reacted to news about tariffs and a government shutdown. (The S&P 500 declined far less – 2.7%.) The sharp drop triggered forced liquidations of leveraged trades, wiping out $20 billion in value.

For newcomers, this level of volatility means one thing: Start by deciding how much risk you’re willing to take, and limit your initial allocation to an amount that won’t derail your broader financial plan. Crypto may be more suitable for those who can afford to lose the allocated money in its entirety.

The high degree of volatility has also given rise to stablecoins – digital currencies pegged to traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar. Their potential for stability makes them useful for digital payments, cross-border transfers, and potential protection against local currency inflation or banking limits. For international payments and remittances, stablecoins may reduce costs and accelerate transfers. And for people in high-inflation economies, a stablecoin linked to a stronger currency may offer an alternative to local banking systems.

For U.S.-based consumers, the actionable takeaway is simpler: Stablecoins can provide a less volatile way to explore digital assets or to move money more efficiently. But they’re still part of the broader crypto ecosystem and should fit into your strategy – not replace it.

Getting Started

Getting started with digital assets can feel overwhelming, but a few rules of thumb can help:

•  Start small – you can always add to your allocation over time or set up regular purchases.

•  Research each asset carefully, considering reputation, real-world use cases, market performance, and supply.

•  Know your risk tolerance – market volatility can be a challenge for even the most seasoned investor.

•  Use a regulated, reputable platform to buy and sell. (SoFi is the only national chartered bank where retail customers can buy, sell, and hold over 25 cryptocurrencies.)

•  And always remember, the value of digital assets is not guaranteed, and they are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, meaning your crypto is not protected from losses.

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn’t recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.