SoFi Blog

Trade and Jobs

This week marks a critical juncture for financial markets, with two major storylines set to converge: The implementation of broad-ranging tariffs and the Friday jobs report. Investors seem more focused on the former – which President Trump has referred to as “the big one” – but both have the potential to move markets.

On the trade side, tariff announcements are expected to include not just Mexico, Canada, and China (our largest trading partners accounting for over 40% of U.S. imports), but any and every country. That might sound like an exaggeration, yet it can’t be ruled out given comments from the President and administration officials about the possibility of reciprocal and “secondary” tariffs.

Reciprocal tariffs impose identical duties on other nations for any duties placed on U.S. products. Secondary tariffs – a more novel concept recently introduced by the President – entail the U.S. placing a 25% tariff on any country that buys oil from Venezuela, a sanctioned country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Pursued to their fullest extent alongside the auto tariffs announced last week, they could significantly impact most countries. How all of this trade policy uncertainty shakes out will have major implications for inflation, business investment, and consumer spending.

Simultaneously, the week’s jobs data comes at a good time considering that recent surveys show consumers are feeling increasingly pessimistic. The latest data from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers shows two thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months – the highest reading since February 2009. Will businesses maintain the positive hiring momentum or will the bad vibes weaken the labor market? This week could provide more hints but leave the big question unsolved.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

•   March Chicago Business Barometer: The barometer provides information on U.S. economic activity and business conditions, consisting of seven activity indicators and three buying policy indicators.

•   March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

Tuesday

•   February Construction Spending: Construction data is a leading indicator of business activity.

•   February Job Openings: A key measure of business demand for labor is the number of job openings, since reducing openings is easier and preferable to layoffs.

•   March ISM Manufacturing PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector feel about the business environment.

•   March Dallas Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   March Wards Total Vehicle Sales: Cars are a big ticket item for consumers, so underlying vehicle sales trends can help shine a light on demand for durable goods.

Wednesday

•   March ADP Employment Report: This survey, usually released a day or two before the official government jobs report, offers insight into private sector employment trends.

•   February Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

Thursday

•   March Challenger Job Cuts: The firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks the number of layoff announcements each month by sector.

•   February Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity.

•   March S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.

•   March ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.

•   Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.

•   Fedspeak: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will participate in a moderated discussion titled Central Bank Communication and Textual Analysis Techniques at the Atlanta Fed.

•   Earnings: Conagra Brands (CAG), Lamb Weston (LW)

Friday

•   March Employment Situation Summary: This monthly blockbuster release from the Labor Department gives a comprehensive look at employment, wages, and hours worked in the previous month.

•   Fedspeak: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak with Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s James Nelson and The Washington Post’s Heather Long at the 2025 Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing conference.

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Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

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If you thought you could save money simply by checking an app on your phone regularly, would you do it? Heck ya, right? Ok, but what if the app showed your bank balance? Would your answer change?

If you’d feel more hesitant, it could be because of the so-called “ostrich effect.” According to behavioral economists, some of us purposely avoid knowing where we stand with our money — just like an ostrich who buries their head in the sand — because of fear we’ll be disappointed by what we see.

But let’s go back to this saving money incentive. According to a group of business school professors, checking your bank account regularly can accomplish more than you might think.

The professors’ study of what’s known as the “payday effect” — the tendency to overspend right after getting your paycheck — shows that people who don’t check their accounts regularly spend significantly more after they get paid, including on impulsive shopping or eating out.

“Regular account monitoring appears to be a powerful tool for avoiding the common trap of overspending after payday,” Ray Charles Howard, one of the professors, wrote last November in a newsletter published by the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business.

Compared to infrequent checkers, regular account checkers show 60% to 70% less variation in their discretionary spending, the research shows. (They are also more apt to notice things like fraud attempts.)

So what? Avoidance is a common psychological response to many things that make us anxious, including our finances. But using some of today’s most ubiquitous digital tools can push us to be more disciplined. If you just can’t look at a balance you’re worried is low, Howard suggests taking these steps to overcome your fears:

•   Set regular dates and times to check your banking apps.

•   Don’t overdo the checking – constant text notifications can make you anxious.

•   Look for spending patterns and trends rather than focusing on absolute numbers.

•   Use a budgeting app (such as SoFi’s Relay) that brings all your accounts together for a big-picture view.

Related Reading

•   Do You Ignore Your Bank Balance? You May Be ‘Money Avoidant’ (SoFi)

•   Anatomy of the Average American Paycheck (Talker Research)

•   Risks of Buy Now, Pay Later: ‘Ticket to Overspending,’ Expert Says (Fox Business)

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

OTM20250331SW

This article appeared in SoFi's On the Money newsletter. Not getting it? Sign up here.

If you’re behind on your federal student loans, this year is pivotal.

It’s the first year since the pandemic began – including the three-plus years when all loan bills were suspended — that not paying counts against your credit score. And borrowers who are 90 days or more overdue on payments could see a significant hit, researchers from the New York Federal Reserve Bank said this week.

In some cases, delinquent borrowers risk a drop of more than 150 points once their missed payments appear on their credit reports, they estimated.

Why now? Because after an unprecedented 43-month reprieve triggered by the pandemic, the government resumed billing in October 2023, but gave borrowers a year’s notice before reporting missed payments to the major credit bureaus. Add to that 90 days for delinquencies to roll through to those credit reports, and here we are.

“We expect to see more than nine million student loan borrowers face substantial declines in credit standing over the first quarter of 2025,” the New York Fed’s Daniel Mangrum and Crystal Wang wrote on their Liberty Street Economics blog Wednesday, implying that some borrowers may have already seen the hit.

“Although some of these borrowers may be able to cure their delinquencies – either through making up missed payments or by entering an administrative forbearance with their loan servicers – the damage to their credit standing will have already been done and will remain on their credit reports for seven years,” they wrote.

The study estimated the potential for credit score damage using delinquency and credit score data from prior to the pandemic. Once a delinquency of 90 days or more is reported, those with higher credit scores could see a bigger average drop than those with lower scores, the researchers said.

Borrowers with a credit score of 760, for example, could see it decline to 589, while those with a score of 620 may see it fall to 477, according to their estimates.

(Worth noting: Borrowers who were already behind or had fully defaulted before the pandemic were granted a clean slate during the payment break, which lifted median credit scores significantly, according to the research. This means any declines that may be coming are relative to those inflated scores.)

So what? It’s been a strange and turbulent few years for people with government student loans, and the Trump administration is pursuing more changes. If you’re struggling financially — or your payment obligation has suddenly increased — you’re not alone. As of September 2024, 9.7 million borrowers were delinquent on more than $250 billion in loans, the researchers estimated.

But now is a critical moment to stay current with your payments. Having a lower credit score can increase the cost of borrowing and make it more difficult to even get a credit card, car loan or mortgage.

So give your next steps careful consideration by taking stock of all of your options and staying on top of any developments. The online application for income-driven repayment plans just became available again Wednesday. Or you may want to consolidate or refinance your loans, find ways to lower your other expenses, or even pursue forbearance.

Related Reading

•   U.S. Department of Education Opens Revised Income-Driven Repayment Plan and Loan Consolidation Applications for Borrowers (U.S. Department of Education)

•   Student Loan Balance and Repayment Trends Since the Pandemic Disruption (Liberty Street Economics)

•   Moving Student Loans to the SBA Could Create Problems for Borrowers, Experts Say (Investopedia)

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

OTM20250328SW