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April Showers. May Flowers?

Investors will navigate a busy week ahead, with a schedule that includes an always-important Federal Reserve meeting, a bevvy of corporate earnings reports, and economic data releases.

Collectively, these elements will help provide context on the post-Liberation Day economic landscape and potential market direction.

The main event is the Federal Reserve’s May 7 meeting. While market pricing suggests only an 8% chance that the Fed lowers its benchmark interest rate from the current 4.25%-4.50% range, there could still be some market-moving fireworks in the post-meeting statement or press conference.

Any commentary regarding tariffs will be a major focus point for investors, especially in light of last week’s negative GDP report that was distorted by a surge in imports and inventories.

The ongoing corporate earnings season adds another wrinkle. Though most of the mega-cap tech companies have already reported their earnings, reports from companies across various sectors will provide valuable ground-level perspectives on business health and outlooks amidst current economic conditions.

Finally, key economic data will offer fresh readings on the economy’s momentum. Following last Friday’s jobs report, this week we’ll see the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Despite the survey being so-called soft data (qualitative information collected through surveys), it remains valuable because the service sector constitutes a large portion of the U.S. economy. In the current environment, the survey could signal brighter days ahead or an early warning of intensifying storm clouds.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

•   April S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.

•   April ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.

•   Earnings: Clorox (CLX), Cummins (CMI), Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA), Ford (F), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Henry Schein (HSIC), Loews (L), Realty Income (O), ON Semiconductor (ON), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Tyson Foods (TSN), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Williams Companies (WMB), Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), American Electric Power (AEP), Assurant (AIZ)

Tuesday

•   March Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity.

•   Earnings: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), American Electric Power (AEP), Assurant (AIZ), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Arista Networks (ANET), Ball (BALL), Constellation Energy Co (CEG), Corpay (CPAY), Duke Energy (DUK), Devon Energy (DVN), Electronic Arts (EA), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), NortonLifeLock (GEN), Global Payments (GPN), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), IQVIA Holdings (IQV), Gartner (IT), Jacobs Engineering Group (J), Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY), Leidos Holdings (LDOS), Marriott International (MAR), Mosaic (MOS), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), TransDigm Group (TDG), Waters (WAT), WEC Energy Group (WEC), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Zoetis (ZTS), APA Corp (APA), Atmos Energy (ATO), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Bunge Global S.A. (BG), CDW (CDW), CF Industries Holdings (CF), AmerisourceBergen (COR), Charles River Laboratories International (CRL)

Wednesday

•   FOMC Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve will announce any changes to monetary policy after the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, in addition to providing commentary on the economy. It’s one of eight regularly scheduled meetings per year.

•   March Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

•   Earnings: APA Corp (APA), Atmos Energy (ATO), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Bunge Global S.A. (BG), CDW (CDW), CF Industries Holdings (CF), AmerisourceBergen (COR), Charles River Laboratories International (CRL), Corteva (CTVA), DoorDash (DASH), Dayforce Inc (DAY), Disney (DIS), Emerson Electric Co (EMR), Fortinet (FTNT), Johnson Controls International (JCI), MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX), NiSource (NI), NRG Energy (NRG), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Paycom Software (PAYC), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Bio-Techne (TECH), Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL), Trimble (TRMB), Uber (UBER), Verisk Analytics (VRSK), Vistra Energy (VST), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), ConocoPhillips (COP), EPAM Systems (EPAM), Evergy (EVRG), Expedia Group (EXPE), Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Alliant Energy (LNT), Microchip Technology (MCHP), McKesson (MCK), Match Group (MTCH)

Thursday

•   1Q Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: These measures provide a breakdown of how productive workers were per hour of work and at what cost.

•   March Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.

•   April New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: This is a measure of peoples’ expectations for inflation, jobs prospects, earnings growth, and more.

•   Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.

•   Earnings: Akamai Technologies (AKAM), ConocoPhillips (COP), EPAM Systems (EPAM), Evergy (EVRG), Expedia Group (EXPE), Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Alliant Energy (LNT), Microchip Technology (MCHP), McKesson (MCK), Match Group (MTCH), News (NWS), News (NWSA), ViacomCBS (PARA), Insulet (PODD), Solventum (SOLV), Sempra Energy (SRE), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), TKO Group Holdings Inc (TKO), Tapestry (TPR), Viatris (VTRS), Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc (WBD), Fox Class B (FOX), Twenty-First Century Fox Class A (FOXA), Simon Property Group (SPG), STERIS (STE), Applied Materials (AMAT), Cisco (CSCO), Deere & Company (DE), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Walmart (WMT), Copart (CPRT), Home Depot (HD), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Nordson (NDSN), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Medtronic (MDT), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Analog Devices (ADI), Intuit (INTU), Ralph Lauren (RL), Synopsys (SNPS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Ross Stores (ROST), Workday (WDAY), AutoZone (AZO), Agilent Technologies (A)

Friday

•   Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver a keynote address at the Reykjavík Economic Conference and participate in moderated Q&A. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a keynote address at the Reykjavík Economic Conference. Chicago Fed President will give opening remarks at a Fed Listens event. Fed Governor Michael Barr will give a keynote address at the Reykjavík Economic Conference. New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller will participate in a panel discussion called John Taylor and Taylor Rules in Policy. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will participate in a policy panel discussion at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference.

•   Earnings: Copart (CPRT), Home Depot (HD), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), Nordson (NDSN), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Medtronic (MDT), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Analog Devices (ADI), Intuit (INTU), Ralph Lauren (RL), Synopsys (SNPS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Ross Stores (ROST), Workday (WDAY)

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