Will the Real Economy Please Stand Up?

Investing is never free of uncertainty, and that has felt especially true in the current macro environment. With the release of the first-quarter GDP report, however, clarity is dipping its toes back into the market ever so slightly. Let’s dive in.

Economic growth in Q1 2025 showed a much anticipated deceleration, with real GDP contracting an annualized 0.3%. This marks the first contraction since Q1 2022 and a significant slowdown from the 2.4% growth figure last quarter. While typically alarming, this headline figure warrants a closer look, as it was heavily influenced by volatile components rather than a fundamental collapse in economic activity.

Real Gross Domestic Product

The negative Q1 reading was primarily driven by a massive surge in imports and significant changes in business inventories. Imports spiked a dramatic 41.3%, causing the Net Exports component to drag down growth by 4.8 percentage points. Simultaneously, businesses increased their inventories, adding back about 2.3 percentage points to growth, but not enough to offset the import drag.

This unusual activity was a direct consequence of businesses responding to trade policy upheaval. Evidence suggests that companies — particularly those reliant on foreign goods like transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, and computers — rushed orders to bring them into the country before potential tariffs made them more expensive. This led to both the recorded import surge and the related build-up in inventories as companies stockpiled goods.

To gauge underlying economic momentum, economists often look at “real final sales to private domestic purchasers,” more casually known as private domestic demand. This measure excludes government spending and volatile trade and inventory effects, which can be helpful when the broader data is being possibly distorted. In stark contrast to the headline GDP figure, this measure grew a solid 3.0% in Q1. Consumer spending did slow a bit, but private fixed investment picked up the slack.

Real Private Domestic Demand

Bond Market Puzzle

Historically, Treasury yields tend to rise when the economy is expected to grow strongly and fall when it’s expected to slow or contract. This relationship exists because strong growth can fuel higher inflation expectations and potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

That dynamic held in recent years, but the latest GDP print brings it into question. Despite the weak -0.3% headline GDP in Q1 and recession fears, the 10-year Treasury yield is still around where it began the month at 4.15%-4.20%.

Treasury Yields and Growth Diverging

There are lots of possible reasons for this disconnect. For instance, some investors posit that inflation fears associated with tariffs could be boosting yields. After all, core PCE inflation accelerated from 2.6% to 3.5% in Q1, but this theory doesn’t seem exactly right. Looking at the difference in yields between nominal Treasurys versus Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), we can see that 10-year inflation expectations have actually fallen from 2.37% to 2.23% since the start of April.

Instead, an “all of the above” explanation is probably needed to explain the stickiness of higher yields. Investors could be looking past the distorted GDP figure in part, and focusing on some of the recent worrisome inflation data and the relatively resilient underlying domestic demand data. Additionally, heightened uncertainty around trade policy and the Fed’s future actions, as well as waning foreign investor appetite for investments in the U.S. may be pushing up the “term premium” – extra compensation investors demand for holding longer-term bonds amid increased risk.

Staring Into the Unknown

The combination of slowing headline growth (-0.3% Q1 GDP) and persistent inflation (+3.5% Q1 Core PCE) has revived concerns about stagflation – a period of stagnant economic activity coupled with high inflation. How this will all impact corporate earnings is unknown. S&P 500 companies have beat consensus expectations by more than 9% so far this earnings season, yet the rapidly shifting landscape means that in many ways, the results are already stale.

Companies exposed to imports have been hesitant to give much guidance on future quarters, while analysts on the whole have not revised earnings much in the grand scheme of things. Indeed, consensus currently expects solid earnings growth this year and next.

S&P 500 Consensus EPS Growth

Sectors more sensitive to trade policy uncertainty are expected to have weaker earnings than other parts of the market, but given resilient current expectations, there’s room for these numbers to change in the coming months. A recession would almost certainly weigh on earnings, but an inflation acceleration complicates the picture since price increases could boost nominal earnings even if real growth is challenged. That’s similar to what happened from 1980-1982: From the start of the 1980 recession through the end of the 1981-82 recession, trailing 12-month earnings fell just 3%. The same can’t be said for stock prices, however, as those periods saw drawdowns of 17% and 27% despite the resilient earnings.

Much will depend on how trade policy plays out and how businesses and consumers respond, but for now the market remains on a razor’s edge.

Want more insights from SoFi’s Investment Strategy team? The Important Part: Investing With Liz Thomas, a podcast from SoFi, takes listeners through today’s top-of-mind themes in investing and breaks them down into digestible and actionable pieces.

SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance, and past performance is no indication of future success. This information isn’t financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on specific financial needs, goals and risk appetite.

Communication of SoFi Wealth LLC an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information about SoFi Wealth’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in SoFi Wealth’s current Form ADV Part 2 (Brochure), a copy of which is available upon request and at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Mario Ismailanji is a Registered Representative of SoFi Securities and Investment Advisor Representative of SoFi Wealth. Form ADV 2A is available at www.sofi.com/legal/adv.

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Editor’s Note: This is the final part of a three-part series exploring the rising cost of home insurance. Here are parts one and two.

When you own a home, you want to protect your investment.

But home insurance premiums are rising fast. And if you’re looking for ways to reduce this growing financial burden, you could be taking risks you’re not aware of.

Here’s how to make sure searching for a lower rate doesn’t involve forfeiting the coverage you need.

Compare Apples to Apples

First off, if you’re shopping around for a new policy, make sure you only compare quotes for the same type and amount of coverage. That way you’ll know if an insurer is offering less protection to be more competitive on price and be able to make a fully informed decision about whether the trade-off is worth the savings.

For each type of coverage, consider the coverage limit, the maximum the insurer will pay for a specific type of loss. Also review the deductible — the amount you have to pay before the insurer will — and any specific exclusions that narrow the scope of coverage.

“When consumers focus on premiums rather than coverage limits, insurers have a very natural incentive to cut prices by offering less insurance,” Tony Cookson, a business school professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, told the school’s campus news publication earlier this year.

Take the study Cookson and his colleagues did on the insurance coverage of homeowners who lost their houses in a 2021 wildfire in Colorado. After examining almost 5,000 insurance contracts, they estimated that 74% of those homeowners didn’t have enough coverage to rebuild their home, and in 36% of cases, their policy covered less than three-quarters of the cost.

Their deduction: Homeowners don’t always realize when they’re sacrificing coverage amounts to get a lower price.

Understand the Coverage Types and Limits

Part of making informed comparisons involves understanding the components of a policy. Standard home insurance typically reimburses you after a theft, accident or disaster (except for a flood or earthquake,) and includes four main types of coverage:

•   Dwelling coverage: to repair or rebuild the house itself

•   Personal property coverage: to repair or replace belongings

•   Additional living expenses (ALE) or loss of use coverage: to help pay for a hotel or other living arrangement if your home is uninhabitable

•   Liability coverage: to protect you if someone sues you over an injury or damage to property

For dwelling and personal property coverage limits, it’s important to understand the difference between Replacement Cost Value (RCV), which would cover the cost to replace the house or items at current prices, and the Actual Cash Value (ACV), which would only reimburse you for what your home or items are worth at the time of the loss, deducting for age and wear and tear.

Most dwelling coverage uses RCV, but you’ll usually have a choice with personal property. (RCV for personal property can cost about 10% more.) Either way, confirming is the best way to avoid surprises.

Note: Your dwelling coverage limit is not based on the market value of your home. The market value, or the price you’d list if you were selling it, is often higher and reflects the value of your house and land as well as market conditions.

What Does It Mean to Be Underinsured?

Being underinsured refers to not having enough coverage for all your costs when you have a claim. In other words, there ends up being a gap between the actual costs of fixing or replacing your home or belongings and what the policy will reimburse you for.

Underinsurance is arguably riskiest when there is a total loss from a fire, hurricane, tornado or other catastrophe. Although most people won’t ever face this kind of catastrophe, industry estimates suggest two-thirds of U.S. homes are underinsured for a total loss, according to the consumer advocacy group United Policyholders.

But being underinsured can also be a problem when there isn’t a total loss. Maybe the dwelling coverage limit isn’t enough given inflation, rising construction costs or building code changes. (More on this below.) Or you didn’t tell your insurer you upgraded a kitchen or bathroom or finished the basement.

Or perhaps as some insurers scale back standard coverage, you’re just unaware of certain exclusions or deductibles that can leave you vulnerable.

Determine If You Have Enough Coverage

If you have a mortgage, the lender will almost certainly require you to carry homeowners insurance. At a minimum, you’ll have to have at least enough dwelling coverage to pay off your loan, though both insurers and policyholder advocates recommend insuring the full Replacement Cost Value.

When you’re comparison shopping, each insurer will have its own estimate of the cost to rebuild. But these may only be as accurate as the default figures programmed into an insurer’s software, so United Policyholders recommends getting a second opinion. You can use:

•   A knowledgeable independent agent or broker

•   A building contractor who comes to your home to give an estimate

•   Your own math — divide the limit by a standard per-square-footage replacement cost for your area

•   An online software program like e2value’s Pronto

An accurate estimate is especially important because insurers may calculate other coverage limits as an automatic percentage of the dwelling coverage limit. Personal property is usually 50%-70% of the dwelling coverage limit, while Additional Living Expenses is often 20%, according to the Insurance Information Institute.

When to Add Extra Coverage

The cost to rebuild a home is fluid, especially if a disaster triggers a sudden increase in building costs.

While some policies will include an inflation adjustment, you may want to consider adding Extended Replacement Cost Value coverage if you live in a disaster-prone area. This will typically pay 20% or more over the limit, depending on the insurer.

Other additional coverage options include:

•   Ordinance or Law: If new building codes or laws that were enacted since your home was built add to the cost of rebuilding.

•   Scheduled Personal Property: If high-value possessions such as jewelry, antiques, or fine art exceed your personal property limit.

•   Earthquake Insurance: Because earthquakes aren’t a covered disaster in standard home insurance policies.

•   Flood Insurance: Because floods aren’t a covered disaster in standard home insurance policies.

Higher Deductibles

Although a higher deductible might technically leave you underinsured, it can actually be a pretty safe way to reduce your premiums. Just make sure you would be able to afford the additional cost if you need to file a claim.

After all, insurance involves hedging your bets and weighing the trade-offs. The more coverage you have, the more you’ll pay but the more peace of mind you’ll have. The less coverage you have, the more risk you’re taking. In the end, it’s all about striking the right balance.

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

OTM2025043001

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Hopefully you love your job. But if you don’t, what are your options? In this economy, it can feel too risky to jump ship or make demands of your employer, let alone ask for a raise.

If this sounds familiar, you’re grappling with what some have coined the “The Great Freeze” — a job market where unemployment and layoffs are relatively low overall, but many companies aren’t hiring much, either. Given the hurdles of finding a new role, workers just stay put — feeling burned out and trapped in jobs they don’t like.

“Workers are tired and don’t want to rock the boat,” Amy He, head of industry analysis at the data analytics firm Morning Consult, wrote in a recent report on the state of the country’s workforce.

The evidence? Two in five workers want to leave their jobs — the most in three years, according to a new Morning Consult poll. Fewer are asking for raises, bonuses or promotions. And over a third, particularly younger adults, are feeling so burnt out that they’re always or often too tired after work to enjoy their personal lives.

This is in stark contrast to when American workers had the leverage a few years ago. First there was The Great Resignation of 2021 and 2022, when people were quitting their jobs en masse because of the pandemic disruption. That was followed by The Great Reshuffle, when many had the luxury of looking for more fulfilling roles with greater flexibility.

But then came the economic headwinds. Tariffs are creating huge amounts of uncertainty, the stock market is in a tizzy, and economists are raising the odds of a recession. Last year’s Great Stay has turned into today’s Great Freeze.

So what? You may be stuck in your job, but you’re still in charge of your life. Plan ahead so you’re in a better position once the job market thaws: Take advantage of employer-sponsored training, max out your 401(k) match, or put your cash into a high-yield savings account to earn a little extra interest.

The more skills you have and the more savings you’ve amassed, the more confident you’ll feel when you’re negotiating for better pay or applying for a new position.

Related Reading

•   The Job Market Is Frozen (The Atlantic)

•   Tech Workers Are Just Like the Rest of Us: Miserable at Work (The Wall Street Journal via MSN)

•   31 Ways to Save Money on Car Maintenance (Calm)

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

OTM20250430SW

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