This week will go a long way in setting the tone for the rest of the summer.

The Federal Reserve has to strike a balance: risks to the labor market against the risk of inflation. Depending on what's happening with the economy, its policymakers tend to prioritize one over the other. Right now prices are a more pressing concern than hiring, underscoring how important this week's inflation data will be in trying to gauge the Fed's next move.

Because oil and gasoline prices have recently fallen, economists actually expect the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June to fall 0.1% m/m.

But core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to increase 0.3% m/m. If it goes up any more than that, it could rattle bond and stock markets and fuel chatter of a rate hike at the Fed's July meeting.

This week also marks the official start of the second-quarter earnings season. As is tradition, it begins with big banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. Because banks are exposed to consumers, businesses, and capital markets, strong guidance from them could reassure investors about the economy's resilience. On the other hand, disappointing results could foster speculation about an economic slowdown — and the potential for lower interest rates.

On the Docket

Monday

•   2:00pm ET | June Treasury Statement: This summarizes the U.S. federal budget by tracking government revenues and expenditures.

•   Fedspeak: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at the New York Association of Business Economics and participate in moderated Q&A.

•   Earnings

◦   Large & Mid-Caps: Fastenal (FAST)

Tuesday

•   6:00am ET | June NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions.

•   8:15am ET | June 27 ADP Weekly Employment Change: This survey offers insight into weekly private sector employment trends.

•   8:30am ET | June Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators of consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers.

•   Fedspeak: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee as part of the Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat at the Kenosha Area Business Alliance, followed by moderated Q&A.

•   Earnings

◦   Mega-Caps: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C)

Wednesday

•   8:30am ET | July Empire State Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed surveys the region's manufacturing executives on business conditions and their outlook.

•   8:30am ET | June Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks wholesale price trends.

•   2:00pm ET | Fed Beige Book: This report is released eight times per year and tracks the state of the economy based on qualitative information.

•   Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will give keynote remarks at a Partnership for New York City event, followed by Q&A. Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee as part of the Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will give welcoming remarks at an event at the regional Fed bank.

•   Earnings

◦   Mega-Caps: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Morgan Stanley (MS)

◦   Large & Mid-Caps: BlackRock (BLK), Progressive (PGR), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), Elevance Health (ELV), Cintas (CTAS), United Airlines (UAL), M&T Bank (MTB), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)

Thursday

•   8:30am ET | July New York Services Activity: The New York Fed surveys executives in the region's services industry, shedding light on business conditions and their outlook.

•   8:30am ET | July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed surveys manufacturing executives in the region, shedding light on business conditions and their outlook.

•   8:30am ET | June Retail Sales: This measures consumer spending and demand at retail stores.

•   10:00am ET | July NAHB Housing Market Index: This index tracks how homebuilders feel about the current and future state of the single-family housing market.

•   Fedspeak: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will discuss the economy and monetary policy at a branch of the regional Fed bank, followed by Q&A. Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson will discuss the economy and monetary policy at an event at the Standard Institute for Economic Policy Research, followed by moderated Q&A.

•   Earnings

◦   Mega-Caps: Prologis (PLD), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), General Electric (GE), Netflix (NFLX)

◦   Large & Mid-Caps: US Bancorp (USB), Kinder Morgan (KMI), State Street (STT), Citizens Financial Group (CFG)

Friday

•   8:30am ET | June Import/Export Price Indexes: These indexes track the changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

•   8:30am ET | June Building Permits and Housing Starts: Construction data is a leading indicator of economic activity.

•   9:15am ET | June Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The industrial sector accounts for much of the cyclical swings in economic activity.

•   10:00am ET | July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Consumer feelings about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.

•   Earnings

◦   Large & Mid-Caps: Travelers Companies (TRV), Truist Financial (TFC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial (RF)

Note: Companies with at least $200 billion in market capitalization are classified as "Mega-Caps," while others are shown in the "Large & Mid-Caps" sections.

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