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The Middle East waterway critical to restoring the flow of oil around the world is said to be reopening under a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. But how long will it take for the price of gas to return to pre-war levels?

"Pre-war prices may not return until early 2027, and even that's not a guarantee," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, an app that tracks individual gas station prices. "If we get a bad hurricane season, it might be even more delayed."

Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at Stanford University's Institute for Economic Policy Research, also said prices are unlikely to fully recover this year.

"We're in for at least several months," he said.

Gas and diesel prices began to spike in early March, when the U.S.-Iran war effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for tankers carrying Middle East oil. The disruption sent the price of crude oil up as much as 67%, making the fuels derived from it more expensive too.

Since then, oil prices have risen and fallen along with the prospects for peace. But it wasn't until Sunday that President Trump said he had reached a deal with Iran to reopen the strait.

A gallon of unleaded gas averaged $4.04 as of Tuesday — down from a peak of $4.56 last month, but still well above the sub-$3 we had before the war began, according to AAA data. If the peace agreement holds, prices will continue to drop, but likely stay in the mid-to-upper $3 range over the summer, De Haan told a local news station in Michigan.

Crude oil accounts for more than half of the price of a gallon of gasoline, with the rest reflecting the cost of refining, marketing, distribution, and taxes.

But even when oil starts to move through the strait again, it will take time for the rest of the supply chain to feel it. Middle East oil fields and refineries that were idled or damaged during the war need to be fully restored, and countries that have been draining their oil reserves will want to restock, Cummings said.

And then there’s the lag known as "rockets and feathers." In essence, economists have found that even though gas prices shoot up like a rocket when oil prices rise, they float down like a feather when oil prices fall.

A big reason for this boils down to human behavior, according to Cummings and his colleague, Stanford economist Neale Mahoney. When gas prices are rising, we consumers pay closer attention to price, shopping around for the cheapest station and forcing the market to reflect the latest prices more quickly. But when gas prices are easing, we feel less urgency. There's less pressure on gas stations to undercut each other.

Keep in mind, too, that the war started during an off-peak time of year for U.S. gas prices — summer was always bound to see some increase, war or not.

So what?

Gas prices are on the decline, but it could easily be six months or more before they'll fully recover from the global oil crisis. The threat of another shutdown means some countries may even hoard oil once it's available, keeping prices elevated, Cummings said.

To stretch your gas dollars in the meantime, don't forget these go-to strategies:

•   Use apps like GasBuddy to find the lowest-priced stations.

•   Improve your fuel efficiency by driving slow and steady, shutting the engine off when parked, and airing out your car before using the AC.

•   Tap into loyalty programs or discounts offered by warehouse clubs like Costco, Sam's Club, and BJ's.

•   Explore more tips here.

Related Reading

Why Today's High Gas Prices Could Take 7 Years to Fall (CNN)

Oil Prices Fell, So Why Don't Pump Prices? (The Way Ahead, from the Society of Petroleum Engineers)

Oil Executives Are Sounding the Alarm Over Dwindling Stockpiles (The Wall Street Journal)

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