What Is Historical Volatility & How Do You Use It?

A Guide to Historical Volatility


Editor's Note: Options are not suitable for all investors. Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Please see the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Historical volatility (HV) measures the range of returns on a market index or security over a given time period. When an asset’s historical volatility is going up, that means its price is moving further away from its average (in either direction) more quickly than usual.

A stock’s historical volatility is commonly expressed as one standard deviation using daily returns, and it’s one factor that investors often look at to gauge the risk of a potential investment. An asset’s historical volatility is different from its implied volatility. Read on to learn what historical volatility is, how historical volatility works, and how to calculate historical volatility.

Key Points

•   Historical volatility measures deviations from a stock’s average price over a period of time.

•   The historical volatility of a stock is typically calculated using the standard deviation of daily returns.

•   Historical volatility is expressed as a percentage, but differs from forward-looking implied volatility.

•   High historical volatility suggests larger price swings, while low volatility indicates smaller movements.

•   Traders may use historical volatility alongside implied volatility — which indicates the expected future volatility of an option’s underlying asset — to inform their trading strategy or assess a security’s riskiness.

What Is Historical Volatility?

Historical volatility measures how much the price of a stock or index goes up and down over a certain period. Investors calculate historical volatility by measuring how much an asset’s price deviates from its average price during a certain time period. Historical volatility typically looks at daily returns, but some investors use it to look at intraday price changes.

Analysts can use any number of trading days when calculating historical volatility, but options traders typically focus on a time period between 10 and 180 days to balance capturing short-term fluctuations with longer-term trends. Options traders may use historical volatility and implied volatility when analyzing trading ideas.

Historical volatility is typically expressed as a percentage that reflects the standard deviation from the average price, based on past price behavior. But there are also other methods they can use to determine an asset’s historical volatility. For example, unstable daily price changes often result in high historical volatility readings.

How Historical Volatility Works

Historical volatility, expressed as a percentage, tracks how much a stock’s price fluctuates in relation to its average price during a certain period. This is usually calculated using the standard deviation of past price returns, which is then demonstrated as an annualized figure.

When a stock sees large daily price swings compared to its history, it will typically have a historical volatility reading. Historical volatility does not measure direction; it simply indicates the deviation from an average.

When a stock’s historical volatility is rising or above average, it means daily price changes are larger than normal. When it is lower than average, a stock or index has been relatively calm.

How Historical Volatility is Calculated

The historical volatility formula is typically a standard deviation measurement. It typically takes a stock’s daily price changes and averages them over a period. There are several steps to calculating historical volatility:

1.    Collect historical prices.

2.    Calculate the average price over the chosen period.

3.    Find the difference between each day’s price change and the average price.

4.    Square those differences.

5.    Find the sum of those squared differences (this finds the squared deviations).

6.    Divide the sum by the total number of prices (this finds the variance).

7.    Calculate the square root of the variance.

You can then calculate the annualized volatility of a stock in two ways:

•   Daily returns: multiply the standard deviation by the square root of 252 (the approximate number of trading days per year)

•   Monthly returns: multiply the standard deviation by the square root of 12 (the number of months per year)

Working through the historical volatility formula can be a lengthy process, but most brokerage platforms will automatically calculate it for you. Many brokers even offer historical volatility charts. With a historical volatility chart, you can easily compare changes through time.

For example, if a stock reacted sharply to an earnings release, its historical volatility charts may show a jump right after the earnings date, while implied volatility might drop sharply as the market makes adjustments to its expectations following the earnings results. Implied volatility measures market expectations of price fluctuations for a certain asset in the future, which is reflected in how its options are priced.

How to Use Historical Volatility

Traders may use historical volatility when analyzing a stock, fund, or index to get a sense of its riskiness. High or low historical volatility stocks are not inherently bullish or bearish. Day traders might seek high historical volatility stocks as candidates for high-profit trading opportunities (but they also come with high loss potential).

Traders sometimes use historical volatility to help set stop-loss levels, which are predetermined prices at which a trade will automatically close to limit losses. For example, a day trader might use three times a stock’s daily average range – a measure of historical volatility – to set a stop price. This is known as volatility ratio trading.

You can also use historical volatility to help determine whether a stock’s options are expensive to help determine an options trading strategy. If implied volatility is extremely high when compared to a stock’s historical volatility, traders may decide that options on the stock are undervalued and suitable as an investment.

Historical volatility can help traders understand the potential range of price movements, which may inform their risk management strategies and decisions about position sizing or exit points.

Recommended: Increase your buying power with a margin loan.

Historical vs Implied Volatility

Like historical volatility, implied volatility measures fluctuations in an underlying stock or index over a period of time, but there are key differences between the two indicators. Implied volatility is a forward-looking indicator of a stock’s future volatility.

The higher the historical volatility, the more risk-prone the security has been in the past. Implied volatility, on the other hand, uses option pricing to arrive at a calculation and estimate of future volatility. If implied volatility is significantly less than a stock’s historical volatility, traders typically anticipate a relatively stable period of trading, and vice versa.

Typically, when implied volatility is low, options tend to also be priced lower, which may make them more appealing to buyers who seek to capitalize on potential future price movements. Sometimes investors will use a graph to determine how an option’s implied volatility changes relative to its strike price, using a volatility smile.

Historical Volatility

Implied Volatility

Measures past price data to gauge volatility on a security. Uses forward-looking option-pricing data to gauge expected future volatility on a security.
Higher historical volatility often leads to higher options pricing and higher implied volatility. Imminent news, like a company earnings report or a key economic data point, may drive implied volatility higher on a stock or index.
May inform traders’ risk management strategies and decisions about position sizing or exit points. Traders may use implied volatility to find stocks expected to exhibit the biggest price swings.

The Takeaway

Historical volatility can be a useful indicator for both institutional and retail investors looking to monitor the level and frequency of a stock or index’s price fluctuations. It measures a security’s dispersion of returns over a defined period. Implied volatility is a similar tool, but it is forward-looking and uses option pricing to arrive at its output.

SoFi’s options trading platform offers qualified investors the flexibility to pursue income generation, manage risk, and use advanced trading strategies. Investors may buy put and call options or sell covered calls and cash-secured puts to speculate on the price movements of stocks, all through a simple, intuitive interface.

With SoFi Invest® online options trading, there are no contract fees and no commissions. Plus, SoFi offers educational support — including in-app coaching resources, real-time pricing, and other tools to help you make informed decisions, based on your tolerance for risk.

Explore SoFi’s user-friendly options trading platform.

FAQ

What is considered a good number for historical volatility?

It depends. Although one stock might have a high historical volatility reading, perhaps above 100%, another steady stock might have a low figure around 20%. The key is to understand the securities you trade. Historical volatility can be an indicator of a stock’s volatility, but unforeseen risks can make future volatility drastically different than the historical trend.

What is a historical volatility ratio?

The historical volatility ratio compares short-term and long-term historical volatility as a percentage of the price of a financial asset. You can interpret the historical volatility ratio by looking at short versus long historical volatility. If short volatility on a stock drops below a threshold percentage of its long volatility, a trader might think there will be a jump in future volatility soon.

This is similar to analyzing volatility skew in options. It is important to remember that the interpretation and technical rules of historical volatility can be subjective by traders.

How is historical volatility calculated?

Historical volatility calculations require finding the average deviation from the average price of an asset over a particular time. An asset’s standard deviation is often used. Historical volatility is usually stated as one standard deviation of historical daily returns.

Many trading platforms automatically calculate historical volatility, so you may not have to do the calculations manually.


Photo credit: iStock/Eva-Katalin

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.

Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


¹Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Probability percentage is subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

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When Is the Stock Market Closed?

The stock market is closed on weekends and many holidays. Accordingly, in a general sense, investors can buy and sell stocks Monday through Friday between 9:30am-4pm ET, but the exact schedule can vary based on time zone, market, and holiday season. Additionally, the major stock exchanges may close or stop trading unexpectedly due to several reasons, like natural disasters or technical glitches. It’s all a part of how the stock markets work.

While a person can always access stock market data, the stock exchanges have strict operating hours during a typical work week. Knowing the stock market schedule and when the stock market is closed may help investors make better investment decisions.

Key Points

•   The stock market operates Monday through Friday, with core trading hours from 9:30 AM to 4 PM ET, and is closed on weekends and holidays.

•   Major U.S. holidays when the stock market is closed include New Year’s Day, Independence Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas, among others.

•   The stock market may also close unexpectedly due to crises, technical issues, or to honor significant events, such as the passing of notable figures.

•   Trading curbs, which temporarily halt trading, are triggered by significant drops in the S&P 500 Index, with varying levels based on the severity of the decline.

•   Extended trading hours are available for premarket and after-hours trading, but these periods carry higher risks due to lower liquidity and increased volatility.

U.S. Stock Market Holidays

Even with standard operating hours, stock markets will close their markets completely for certain holidays. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq recognize the following holidays:

•   New Year’s Day

•   Martin Luther King, Jr. Day

•   Washington’s Birthday

•   Good Friday

•   Memorial Day

•   Juneteenth National Independence Day

•   Independence Day

•   Labor Day

•   Thanksgiving Day

•   Christmas Day

Additionally, the stock market closes early (at 1pm ET) on the following dates:

•   Black Friday

•   Christmas Eve, if the holiday falls on a weekday

Stock exchanges in other countries might have different national holidays and operating schedules. Investors can buy and sell stocks or other securities during open market hours outside of these major holidays.

Is the Market Closed the Following Monday After a Holiday?

For holidays with a fixed date, like Juneteenth (June 19), Independence Day (July 4), and Christmas (Dec. 25), the stock market will be closed on the preceding Friday if the holiday falls on a Saturday or the following Monday if the holiday falls on a Sunday.

However, if New Year’s Day (Jan. 1) falls on Saturday, the holiday is not observed; the stock market will be open on the preceding Friday and the following Monday.

Other Times the Stock Market Closes or Is Halted

In addition to planned holidays, historically, the stock market has closed trading in times of crisis or technical challenges.

For example, at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, markets were halted multiple times due to unprecedented drops in the market. Called trading curbs or circuit breakers, these are temporary pauses mandated by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2012. Each level follows different criteria:

•   Level 1: A 7% drop in the S&P 500 Index compared to closing the day before will trigger the market to be paused for at least 15 minutes.

•   Level 2: A 13% drop in the S&P 500 compared to closing the day before will trigger at least a 15-minute pause in the market.

•   Level 3: A 20% drop in the S&P 500 compared to closing the day before will trigger a premature close on trading for the rest of the day.

Trading curbs can occur for a single stock and a whole market. It’s more common for the curb to be tripped on a single stock, but unprecedented events can spark a whole market pause. Covid-19 caused three trading curbs in just over a week.

The stock market may also close unexpectedly due to unprecedented events. For example, the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, caused the NYSE to close for a week, while Superstorm Sandy forced the NYSE to close for two days in Oct. 2012.

Additionally, the markets may close down to honor the death of a world figure, as was the case with George H.W. Bush and Martin Luther King Jr.

The market has also closed unexpectedly due to technical glitches and cybersecurity threats; in July 2015, the NYSE temporarily stopped trading because of a technical issue on the floor.

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Stock Market Operating Hours

In the United States, the major stock exchanges are generally open Monday through Friday, with core trading hours between 9:30am-4pm ET. The stock market does not operate during the weekend.

Because the different stock exchanges operate on eastern time, these trading hours are different throughout the U.S., depending on time zones and daylight savings time.

However, with so many global stock exchanges, a market may always open if an investor is interested in trading in foreign markets. Most markets operate during their time zone’s business hours.

Recommended: Pros & Cons of Global Investments

Why Does the Stock Market Close Each Day?

The stock market closes each day for several reasons, notably because it allows for the settlement of all trades that have occurred. The close gives market professionals time to calculate the day’s trading results and prepare for the next day.

Additionally, the stock market close is helpful for investment brokers and traders to catch up on paperwork and other administrative tasks.

While the stock market closes each day at 4pm in the United States, other markets, like cryptocurrency and foreign exchange markets, offer trading 24 hours a day.

Recommended: Is 24/7 Stock Trading Available?

When Does the Market Open for Premarket Trading?

The market opens for premarket trading at 4 am ET and operates until 9:30 am ET.

While most stock trading occurs during the normal 9:30am-4pm ET operating hours, investors can also take advantage of extended-hours trading. Investors may be interested in trading during the premarket because of the release of economic data, company earnings reports, and other major news events.

Investors must use an alternative trading system known as electronic communication networks (ECNs) to make trades during premarket trading.

However, investors must be aware of the risks associated with premarket trading. Because fewer buyers and sellers operate during the early hours, there is lower liquidity and higher volatility.

Premarket trading probably isn’t for a beginner investor; if you don’t need to buy or sell a stock immediately, you might prefer to wait until regular trading hours.

After-Hours Trading

The closing bell for the major U.S. stock exchanges might ring promptly at 4 pm ET, but there’s still after-hours trading: it’s possible to buy, sell, and trade stocks between 4pm-8pm ET. Electronic trading tools like ECNs mentioned above make it possible to conduct business after hours, but making moves during after-hours trading comes with its own risks, just like during premarket trading.

The Takeaway

Investors should be aware that the stock market is closed on weekends, designated holidays, and for world events and other disruptive circumstances. When the stock market is open, the exchanges generally operate on a 9:30am-4pm ET schedule, Monday through Friday.

Knowing when the stock market is open and closed can allow investors to strategize the best time to make trades and investments.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.

Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹

FAQ

Is the stock market closed on holidays?

The stock market is generally closed on New Year’s Day, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Presidents’ Day, Good Friday, Memorial Day, Juneteenth National Independence Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving Day, and Christmas Day.

When is the stock market closed and opened?

The stock market in the United States is closed on weekends and some holidays. The stock market is generally open Monday through Friday from 9:30am-4pm ET.

Is the stock market open for extended hours?

The stock market is open for extended hours, from 4am-9:30am ET for premarket trading and 4pm-8pm for after-hours trading. However, trading during this period can be risky.


INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


¹Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Probability percentage is subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

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What Is Quadruple Witching?

What Is Quadruple Witching?

Quadruple witching refers to the simultaneous expiration of four popular investment contracts, creating wild market conditions. Given its name, it may just be the spookiest day of the year for investors – sorry, Halloween! Quadruple witching day occurs on the third Friday in March, June, September, and December.

The last hour of those trading days is known as the “quadruple witching hour”, when many derivatives contracts expire, often creating volatility in the markets. That’s because there may be higher market volume on those days as traders either close out or roll over their positions.

Key Points

•   Quadruple witching involves the simultaneous expiration of four types of investment contracts, leading to increased market volatility on specific trading days.

•   This phenomenon occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, with heightened activity in the final trading hour.

•   The four contracts involved are stock options, stock index futures, index options, and stock futures, all of which are derivatives tied to underlying assets.

•   Increased trading volume on quadruple witching days can result in significant price swings and influence the market dynamics, especially among active traders.

•   While quadruple witching may not impact long-term investment strategies, it presents short-term opportunities for experienced investors seeking to capitalize on market volatility.

What is Quadruple Witching Day?

Quadruple witching, or quad witching, is trader’s terminology for the four dates on the calendar when four kinds of options contracts expire: stock options, stock index futures, index options, and stock futures.

Each of the contracts has expiration dates that will match up each quarter, which is why quadruple witching, or quad witching, happens in the third, sixth, ninth and twelfth month of the year respectively. The expiration for these contracts happen at the same time in the day — the afternoon.

While events like quadruple witching may not impact how and when you invest (especially if you’re investing for the long term), they are a good reminder of the investment risks that any investing strategy or approach brings.

How much attention individual investors pay to witching day may depend on their investing philosophy and their time horizon. Since quad witching can result in short-term volatility, many passive investors may ignore them entirely. On the other hand, active investors who try to time the market and get in and out of trades quickly in the most advantageous manner, may use them to inform their strategy and consider buying or selling witching hour stocks.


Contracts Involved in Quad Witching

To understand quadruple witching, you have to first understand the different options contracts involved. Stock index futures, stock index options, single stock futures and single stock options are all derivatives, meaning their value corresponds to the value or change in value of an underlying asset. The underlying assets are either stock market indexes, like the S&P 500, or individual company stocks.

Options contracts give holders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a stock at a certain price at a future date. Futures contracts are contracts to purchase shares of a given stock at a certain price in the future.

For indices, futures and options are contracts on the value of an equity index. Investors often use these either to hedge or make outright speculations on the moves of an index. All four derivatives are complex investments that involve risks when playing the market, and they’re more often used by professional traders and institutional traders than retail investors.

Recommended: Is it Possible to Time the Stock Market?

How Does Quadruple Witching Affect the Market?

Quadruple witching days are those four days of the year when these types of contracts all expire, those who bought contracts and choose to exercise them will receive their stock or cash, or they make additional transactions to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.

This can lead to more buying and selling of shares than is typical for a given day or, especially a given hour. Increased volume can mean more volatility in the markets and the possibility of large swings during the day.

One reason these days can cause hiccups in the markets is that while certain positions expire, investors may want to extend them. This means they have to “roll” the bet in order to keep it active, potentially forcing other players in the market to buy or sell, especially if the market is already volatile or choppy.

For trades that involve the transfer or automatic buying of stock, like options trades on individual shares, the quadruple witching date can mean automatic buying up of shares to fulfill the options contracts, leading to spikes even if there is no “fundamental” reason for them.

Overall, volumes in options trades can go up on quadruple witching days, which can sometimes have knock-on effects on the price of the underlying assets involved in options contracts.

The Takeaway

Quadruple witching day occurs on the third Friday in March, June, September, and December. The last hour of those trading days is known as the “quadruple witching hour”, when many derivatives contracts expire, often creating volatility in the markets. That’s because there may be higher market volume on those days as traders either close out or roll over their positions.

Quadruple witching offers an opportunity to understand how market mechanics can affect actual prices, but it may not impact the strategy for most long-term investors. More experienced investors and traders may find profitable opportunities, however, as the markets enter a period of volatility.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.


Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹

Photo credit: iStock/Radachynskyi


INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.


¹Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Probability percentage is subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

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What Is a Stock Market Crash?

The specter of a stock market crash weighs on the mind of many investors. After all, stock market crashes have played a substantial role in the United States during the 20th and 21st centuries. But knowing what is a stock market crash as well as the history and effects of stock market crashes can help investors weather the storm when the next one occurs.

Key Points

•   A stock market crash occurs when major indices experience significant declines, usually driven by panic selling rather than specific company issues.

•   Key factors that can trigger a crash include economic crises, natural disasters, and investor behavior, often exacerbated by rapid declines in stock prices.

•   Historical crashes, such as those in 1929, 1987, 2000, 2008, and 2020, illustrate the profound impact of bubbles and external shocks on the market.

•   Crashes can lead to bear markets and recessions, as declining stock values negatively affect corporate growth and consumer spending.

•   Strategies for navigating crashes include maintaining long-term focus, diversifying investments, and considering opportunities to buy undervalued stocks during downturns.

What Happens When the Stock Market Crashes?

A stock market crash occurs when broad-based stock indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, or the Nasdaq Composite experience double-digit declines over a single or several days. This means that the stocks of a wide range of companies sell off rapidly, generally because of investor panic and macroeconomic factors rather than company-specific fundamentals.

While no specific percentage decline defines a stock market crash, investors generally know one is occurring while it’s happening.

What Causes the Market to Crash?

Stock market crashes are usually unexpected and occur without warning. Often, crashes are caused by investor dynamics; when stocks start to sell off, investors’ fear takes over and causes them to panic sell shares en masse.

Though stock market crashes are usually unexpected, there are often signs that one could be on the horizon because a stock market bubble is inflating. A bubble occurs when stock prices rise quickly during a bull market, outpacing the value of the underlying companies. The bubble forms as investors buy certain stocks, driving prices up. Other investors may see the stocks doing well and jump on board, further raising prices and initiating a self-sustaining growth cycle.

The stock price growth continues until some unexpected event makes investors wary of stocks. This unexpected event causes investors to unload shares as quickly as possible, with the herd mentality of panic selling resulting in a stock market crash.

Catastrophic events such as economic crises, natural disasters, pandemics, and wars can also trigger stock market crashes. During these events, investors sell off risky assets like stocks for relatively safe investments like bonds.

Stock markets can also experience flash crashes, where the stock market plummets and rebounds within minutes. Computer trading algorithms can make these crashes worse by automatically reacting and selling stocks to head off losses. For example, on May 6, 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,000 points in 10 minutes but recovered 70% of its losses by the end of the day.

Recommended: What Is the Average Stock Market Return?

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Examples of Past Stock Market Crashes

There have been several crashes in the stock market history, the most recent being the crash associated with the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020. The following are some of the most well-known crashes during the past 100 years.

Stock Market Crash of 1929

The most devastating stock market crash in the history of the United States occurred in October 1929. The crash occurred following a period of relative prosperity during the Roaring Twenties, when new investors poured money into the stock market.

The crash began on Thursday, October 24, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined about 11%, followed by a 13% decline on Monday, October 28, and a 12% drop on Tuesday, October 29. These losses started a downward trend that would continue until 1932, ushering in the Great Depression.

Black Monday Crash of 1987

On Monday, October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted nearly 23% in a single day. Known as Black Monday, this selloff occurred for various reasons, including the rise of computerized trading that made it easier for panicked investors to offload stocks quickly, and stock markets around the world crashed.

Dotcom Crash of 2000

The Dotcom crash between 2000 and 2002 occurred as investors started to pull money away from internet-based companies. The Nasdaq Composite index declined about 77% from March 2000 to October 2002.

In the mid to late 1990s, the internet was widely available to consumers worldwide. Investors turned their eyes to internet-based companies, leading to rampant speculation as they snapped up stocks of newly public internet companies. Eventually, startups that enthusiastic investors had fueled began to run out of money as they failed to turn a profit. The bubble eventually burst.

Recommended: Lessons From the Dotcom Bubble

Financial Crisis of 2008

The stock market crash of 2008 was fueled by rising housing prices, which came on the heels of the dot-com crash recovery. At the time, banks were issuing more and more subprime mortgages, which financial institutions would bundle and sell as mortgage-backed securities.

As the Federal Reserve increased interest rates, homeowners, who often had been given mortgages they couldn’t afford, began to default on their loans. The defaults had a ripple effect throughout the economy. The value of mortgage-backed securities plummeted, causing major financial institutions to fail or approach the brink of failure. This financial crisis spilled over into the stock market, and the S&P 500 fell nearly 60% from a peak in October 2007 to a low in March 2009.

Coronavirus Crash of 2020

As the coronavirus pandemic swept the United States in February 2020, the government responded with stay-at-home orders that shut down businesses and curtailed travel. The U.S. economy entered a recession, and the stock market plunged. The S&P 500 fell 30% into bear market territory in just one month, including a one day decline of 12% on March 16, 2020.

What Are the Effects of a Crash?

Stock market crashes can lead to bear markets, when the market falls by 20% or more from a previous peak. If the crash leads to an extended period of economic decline, the economy may enter a recession.

A market crash could lead to a recession because companies rely heavily on stocks as a way to grow. Falling stock prices curtail a company’s ability to grow, which can have all sorts of ramifications. Companies that aren’t able to earn as much as they need may lay off workers. Workers without jobs aren’t able to spend as much. As consumers start spending less, corporate profits begin to shrink. This pattern can lead to a cycle of overall economic contraction.

A recession is usually declared when U.S. gross domestic product, or GDP, shrinks for two consecutive quarters. There may be other criteria for declaring a recession, such as a decline in economic activity reflected in real incomes, employment, production, and sales.

💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.

Preventing Stock Market Crashes

Major stock exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) have instituted circuit breaker measures to protect against crashes. These measures halt trading after markets drop a certain percentage to curb panic selling and prevent the markets from going into a freefall.

The NYSE’s circuit breakers kick in when three different thresholds are met. A drop of 7% or 13% in the S&P 500 shuts down trading for 15 minutes when the drop occurs between 9 am and 3:25 pm. A market decline of 20% during the day will shut down trading for the rest of the day.

Suppose a crash does occur, and it threatens to weaken the economy. In that case, the federal government may step in to ease the situation through monetary and fiscal policy stimulus measures. Monetary policy stimulus is a set of tools the Federal Reserve can use to stimulate economic growth, such as lowering interest rates. Fiscal stimulus is generally infusions of cash through direct spending or tax policy.

Investment Tips During a Market Crash

A stock market crash can be alarming, especially when it comes to an investor’s portfolio. Here are some investment tips to consider for navigating a market downturn.

Don’t Panic and Focus on the Long-Term

It will help if you remain calm when the stock market is plummeting. That’s often easier said than done, especially when your portfolio’s value declines by more than 10% in a short period. It’s tempting to join the panic selling, to make sure stock losses are minimized.

But remember, investing is a long game. In general, making decisions based on something happening now when your investing time horizon might be 30 years, may not be the best choice. If you don’t need access to your money right away, it may be better to hold on to your investments and give them time to recover.

Diversify Your Portfolio

Stocks and the stock market get most of the media’s attention, especially when the stock market is crashing, but there are other potential ways to help you realize your financial goals. Other assets like bonds, commodities, or emerging market stocks may be attractive investment opportunities to consider during a crash.

Consider Buying The Dip

While it depends on an individual’s specific situation and risk tolerance, a stock market crash might present opportunities to purchase stocks at a lower, more attractive share price that some investors may want to consider.

The Takeaway

The stock market tends to recover following a stock market crash; it took the S&P 500 six months to recover the losses experienced during the coronavirus crash. So any rash moves investors make during a stock market crash may prevent them from seeing gains in the long term.

A stock market crash can be scary, causing you to panic and fret over your savings and investments. But often, with investing, the best advice is not to make rash decisions. Even during a stock market crash, there may still be some opportunities and strategies to help build wealth over time.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.


Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

FAQ

When was the last market crash?

The last stock market crash was in 2020, at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, when business shut down and the stock market plunged. The S&P 500 fell 30% in just one month. Within six months, however, the S&P 500 had recovered its losses.

What goes up when the stock market crashes?

Bonds generally tend to go up when the stock market crashes, although not always. Government bonds such as U.S. Treasuries typically do best during a market crash, though again, there are no guarantees.

Do stocks recover after a crash?

Historically, the stock market has recovered after a crash, although it’s impossible to say how long a recovery might take. Some stock market recoveries have taken a year or less, some have taken much longer.


Photo credit: iStock/Prostock-Studio

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

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What Are Futures? A Guide to Futures Trading

Exploring Futures in Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide

Some investors may trade futures contracts in order to hedge against risk, or to speculate on the price movements of a given asset or security — or because their business will benefit if they lock in a commodity at a certain price. Trading futures can provide opportunities for a range of investors.

A futures contract requires both parties to honor the terms, no matter what the price is in the market when the contract expires. If you want to trade futures, there are various ways they can fit into your portfolio or plan.

Key Points

•   Trading futures contracts allows investors to hedge against risks or speculate on price movements of various assets, including commodities and financial instruments.

•   Futures contracts are standardized agreements that obligate parties to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a future date.

•   Investors can utilize leverage when trading futures, which can amplify both potential gains and losses due to margin trading practices.

•   Hedging with futures helps businesses secure prices for commodities, mitigating the impact of unexpected price fluctuations in the market.

•   Understanding the risks and benefits of futures trading is crucial, as it involves leveraged positions that can lead to significant financial consequences.

What are Futures?

Futures are derivatives that take the form of a contract in which two traders agree to buy or sell an asset for a specified price at a future date. Popular underlying assets for futures may include physical commodities like gold, corn, or oil, as well as currencies, or financial instruments like stocks.

The most commonly traded futures contracts use standardized terms, and are traded on a futures exchange. For example, if you want to buy or sell corn futures, one contract would equal 5,000 bushels and be traded via the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Oil is traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and one oil futures contract equals 1,000 barrels of oil.

Traders buy and sell in increments specified by the contract. To buy 50,000 bushels of corn or 10,000 barrels of oil, you’d buy 10 contracts of each. Given the quantities and dollar amounts of these trades, investors often use leverage, thereby paying only a fraction of the total cost of the position.


💡 Quick Tip: Options can be a cost-efficient way to place certain trades, because you typically purchase options contracts, not the underlying security. That said, options trading can be risky, and best done by those who are not entirely new to investing.

Understanding How Futures Work

Futures work by obligating a buyer or seller to purchase or offload an asset — it’s a contract.

Mechanism of Futures Trading

A futures contract obliges the buyer to buy a certain asset, or the seller to sell an asset, at an agreed-upon price, by a certain date. Each party must fulfill the terms of the contract, no matter what the market price or spot price is when the contract expires (or trade the contract before the expiration).

Futures contracts are standardized, as noted above, and each contract also spells out the contract terms, which includes among other things:

•   The unit of the trade (e.g., tons, gallons, bushels, etc.).

•   The grade or quality of the commodity, where relevant. For example, there are different types of corn, oil, soy, etc.

•   Terms of settlement (e.g., physical delivery or a cash settlement).

•   Quantity of goods covered by the contract.

•   Currency in which the contract is priced.

Recommended: How Does a Margin Account Work?

The Role of Futures in Markets

A futures contract allows investors to speculate on the direction of the underlying asset, either long or short, using leverage. (Leverage means the trader doesn’t have to put up the full amount of the contract. Instead, futures traders use a margin account.) As such, they’re a tool that allows investors to use leverage and speculation.

Types of Futures Contracts

There are numerous types of futures contracts, including those tied to underlying assets such as equities and commodities. They can even be tied to other futures.

Equity, Commodity, and Other Futures

Futures contracts allow investors to make bets on the prices of a wide array of assets:

•   Commodity futures, which allow investors to buy or sell physical goods like crude oil, pork bellies, natural gas, orange juice, corn, wheat, and more.

•   Financial futures, including index contracts and interest rate or debt contracts.

•   Precious metal futures allow investors to bet on the future prices of gold, platinum, and silver.

•   Currency futures for fiat currencies like the euro, yen, the British pound, and more.

•   U.S. Treasury futures allow investors to make bets on the future value of government bonds.

What are stock futures? Like futures contracts where the underlying is a physical commodity, some futures are tied to shares of a single stock or ETF. Stock index futures, however, are tied to the price movements of an index like the S&P 500 index.

Trading and Speculating with Futures

There are two key aspects to futures trading, which are hedging and speculating. Both play an important role in the markets, and determining whether futures are actually traded or not. There are also trading strategies to keep in mind, too.

Strategies for Futures Trading

There are many strategies for trading futures contracts, just as there are many strategies for trading almost any other type of security or derivative. To name a few of the basic strategies, investors can look at strategizing around price pullbacks, breakout trading, or even spread trading — each requires its own gameplan, and some background research to get started.

Futures as Speculation and Hedging Tools

Hedging is a big reason why investors buy futures contracts: It’s a way to protect against losses resulting from price changes in commodities.

Among the businesses that hedge using futures, the goal is to reduce the risk they face from unexpected price movements, and to guarantee the price they pay or receive for a particular asset.

If a large food manufacturer wants to lock in the price of corn, for example, they might enter into a contract for $10 a bushel. Since corn contracts are typically standardized at 5,000 bushels per contract, the total amount of the futures contract would be $50,000 ($10 x 5,000), to be delivered in six months. Entering into this futures contract would offer the buyer some protection against the possibility of rising corn prices in the future.

Let’s say the price of corn does rise to $12/bushel by the time the contract expires. In that case, the buyer still only pays the agreed-upon price of $10/bushel, even though the spot price is now $12/bushel.

For the corn producer in this scenario, even though it turned out that the futures contract terms weren’t quite as favorable as the actual market price — the contract guaranteed they would get at least $10/bushel, which provided a hedge against a potentially bigger loss.

Although it’s possible to settle a futures contract for the physical asset specified in the contract, most futures contracts are cash-settled. That’s because speculation on price movements is one of the main reasons that investors purchase futures contracts. A futures contract gives traders the opportunity to speculate whether a commodity will go up or down and potentially profit from the price change.

If the underlying asset of the futures contract — such as gold, oil, or corn — is above the price specified in the futures contract, then the investor can sell that contract for a profit before it expires. In that case, the contract would sell for the difference between the market price of the underlying commodity and the purchase price as specified in the contract.

In such a transaction, the underlying commodities don’t change hands between the counterparties of the contract. Instead, the trade would be cash-settled in the brokerage account of the investor.

Alternatively, an investor using futures for speculation could lose money if the price of the commodity is lower than the purchase price specified in the futures contract.

Risks and Benefits of Trading Futures

Futures trading has some significant risks and potential rewards — investors would be wise to know what they’re getting into, accordingly.

Understanding the Risks

Owing to the nature of futures trading, i.e., the binding nature of the contracts and the use of leverage, there are some obvious risks to bear in mind.

In a speculative trade, a futures contract allows you to bet on a commodity’s price movement. If you bought a futures contract, and at expiration the price of the commodity was trading above the original contract price, you’d see a profit. However, you could also lose if the commodity’s price was lower than the purchase price specified in the futures contract.

The potential risks here can be greater than they seem, because trading on margin permits a much larger position than the actual amount held by the brokerage. As a result, margin investing can amplify gains, but it can also magnify losses.

Imagine a trader who has $5,000 in their brokerage account and is in a trade for a $50,000 position in crude oil. If the price of oil moves against the trade, the losses could far exceed the account’s $5,000 initial margin amount. In this case, the broker would make a margin call requiring additional funds to be deposited to cover the market losses.

Speculators can also take a short position if they believe the price of the underlying asset will decline. An investor would realize a gain if the underlying asset’s price was below the contract price, and a loss if the current price was above the contract price. Again, using leverage to place these bets, long or short, can potentially expose investors to more risk than they intended.

Potential Benefits and Rewards

Some of the potential benefits of trading futures include the fact that investors can use leverage to try and generate outsized returns, the markets are liquid (meaning there’s plenty of trading action) and it offers up a chance to make some relatively quick (and potentially large) returns. That should, of course, be weighed against the aforementioned risks.

Futures vs Other Derivative Instruments

There are other financial derivatives with similar characteristics to futures contracts, such as options and forwards.

Comparing Futures with Options and Forwards

American-style options grant the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the contract’s underlying asset at any time until the contract expires.

Unlike a futures contract, however, option contracts don’t require the investor to purchase or sell the underlying asset. The investor can simply let the option expire. A futures contract, on the other hand, obligates the buyer to purchase the underlying asset, or to pay the seller of the futures contract the cash equivalent of that asset at the time of the contract’s expiration.

Similarly, a forward contract looks and functions a lot like a futures contract, with the primary difference being that forward contracts are only settled once — on their expiration date. Forwards are also often settled in the underlying asset (as opposed to cash), and the forwards market tends to be less liquid.


💡 Quick Tip: In order to profit from purchasing a stock, the price has to rise. But an options account offers more flexibility, and an options trader might gain if the price rises or falls. This is a high-risk strategy, and investors can lose money if the trade moves in the wrong direction.

Opening and Managing Futures Positions

Opening and managing futures positions can be relatively simple, granted you’re using a platform that allows for futures trading, and can follow a few steps.

Steps to Start Trading Futures

It’s common for some brokerages to have their own futures-trading capabilities, as well as their own rules about what an investor needs in terms of assets in order to trade futures contracts. Be sure to verify what those requirements are before selecting a broker.

Once you’re eligible to open a margin account and trade futures, those contracts trade on different exchanges, such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), ICE Futures U.S. (Intercontinental Exchange), and the CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE).

From there, depending on the brokerage or platform being used, investors should be able to open and swap futures positions.

Managing Futures Contracts Effectively

Most investors in futures contracts have no interest in either receiving or having to deliver the physical commodities that underlie these contracts. Rather, they’re interested in the cash profit. The means of doing so is to trade the futures contract before its expiration date.

The standardized nature of most futures makes it so that a great many (but not all) futures contracts will expire on the third Friday of each month. Some commodities are seasonal, and only trade during specific months. High-grade corn trades on the CBOT in March, May, July, September, and December, for example.

As with any type of trading or investing, making sure you know what you’re dealing with when it comes to futures — and paying attention to the market — is going to be paramount to finding success as a trader. There are risks at play, and there’s no guarantee that the chips will fall your way. But for some, futures trading has proven fruitful.

Invest in what matters most to you with SoFi Active Invest. In a self-directed account provided by SoFi Securities, you can trade stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, options, and more — all while paying $0 commission on every trade. Other fees may apply. Whether you want to trade after-hours or manage your portfolio using real-time stock insights and analyst ratings, you can invest your way in SoFi's easy-to-use mobile app.

Opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.¹


Photo credit: iStock/hopeist

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest is a trade name used by SoFi Wealth LLC and SoFi Securities LLC offering investment products and services. Robo investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Brokerage and self-directed investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

For disclosures on SoFi Invest platforms visit SoFi.com/legal. For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Before an investor begins trading options they should familiarize themselves with the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options . Tax considerations with options transactions are unique, investors should consult with their tax advisor to understand the impact to their taxes.


¹Probability of Member receiving $1,000 is a probability of 0.026%; If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Customer must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. Probability percentage is subject to decrease. See full terms and conditions.

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