Apr
01
2025
Preferred Stock vs. Common Stock
Before you start trading on the market, read our guide to understand the pros and cons of common vs. preferred stock.
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Apr
01
2025
What Is Deflation and Why Does It Matter?
Deflation is essentially the opposite of inflation. It occurs when the prices consumers pay for goods and services goes down. That means that consumers can purchase more with the same amount of money.
There are many factors that cause deflation, which happens when the supply of goods and services is higher than the demand for them. While deflation can have some benefits to consumers, it’s often a sign of trouble for the overall economy.
What Happens During Deflation?
In addition to knowing what inflation is, it’s important to understand how it impacts the economy. In a deflationary economy, prices gradually drop and consumers can purchase more with their money. In other words, the value of a dollar rises when deflation happens.
It’s important not to confuse deflation with disinflation. Disinflation is simply inflation decelerating. For example, the annual inflation rate may change from 5% to 3%. This variation still means that inflation is present, just at a lower rate. By contrast, deflation lowers prices. So, instead of prices increasing 3%, they may drop in value by 2%.
Although it may seem advantageous for consumer purchasing power to increase, it can accompany a recession. When prices drop, consumers may delay purchases on the assumption that they can buy something later for a lower price. However, when consumers put less money into the economy, it results in less money for the service or product creators.
The combination of these two factors can yield higher unemployment and interest rates. Historically, after the financial crises of 1890, 1893, 1907, and the early-1930s, the United States saw deflationary periods follow.
How Is Deflation Measured?
Economists measure deflation the same way they measure inflation, by first gathering price data on goods and services. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) record and monitor this type of data in the United States. They collect pricing information that they then put into buckets reflecting the types of goods and services consumers generally use.
While these buckets do not include every product and service; they offer a sample of items and services consumed. In the United States, economists incorporate these prices into an indicator known as the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Then, economists can compare the CPI to previous years to determine whether the economy is experiencing inflation or deflation. For example, if the prices decrease in a period compared to the year before, the economy is experiencing deflation. On the other hand, if prices increase compared to the previous year, the economy is experiencing inflation.
What Causes Deflation?
Deflation comes from a swing in supply and demand. Typically, when demand dwindles and supply increases, prices drop. Factors that may contribute to this shift include:
Rising Interest rates
When the economy is expanding, the Federal Reserve may increase interest rates. When rates go up, consumers are less likely to spend their money and may keep more in high interest savings accounts to capitalize on the increase in rates.
Also, the cost of borrowing increases with the rise of interest rates, further discouraging consumers from spending on large items.
Decline in Consumer Confidence
When the country is experiencing economic turbulence, like a recession, consumers spend less money. Because consumers tend to worry about the direction of the economy, they may want to keep more of their money in savings to protect their financial well-being.
Innovations in Technology
Technological innovation and process efficiency ultimately help lower prices while increasing supply. Some companies’ increase in productivity may have a small impact on the economy. While other industries, such as oil, can have a drastic impact on the economy as a whole.
Lower Production Costs
When the cost to produce certain items, such as oil, decreases, manufacturers may increase production. If demand for the product stagnates or decreases, they may then end up with excess supply. To sell the product, companies may drop prices to encourage consumer purchases.
Why Does Deflation Matter?
Although falling prices may seem advantageous when you need to purchase something, it’s always not a good sign for the economy. Many economists prefer slow and unwavering inflation. When prices continue to rise, consumers have an incentive to make purchases sooner, which further boosts the economy.
One of the most significant impacts of deflation is that it can take a toll on business revenues. When prices fall, businesses can’t make as much money.
The drop in business profits makes it challenging for companies to support their employees, leading to layoffs or pay cuts. When incomes go down, consumers spend less money. So deflation can create a domino effect impacting the economy at many different levels, including lower wages, increased unemployment, and falling demand.
Deflation During The Great Depression
The Great Depression is a significant example of the potential economic impact of a deflationary period. While the 1929 stock market crash and recession set this economic disaster off, deflation heavily contributed to it. The rapid decrease in demand along with cautious money hoarding led to falling prices for goods and services. Many companies couldn’t recover and shut down. This caused record-high unemployment in the United States, peaking at 25%, and in several other countries as well.
During this time, the economy continued to experience the negative feedback loop associated with deflation: cash shortages, falling prices, economic stagnation, and business shutdowns. While the United States has seen small episodes of deflationary periods since the Great Depression, it hasn’t seen anything as substantial as this event.
How to Manage Deflation
So, what can the government do to help regulate inflation? For starters, the Federal Reserve can lower interest rates to stimulate financial institutions to lend money. The Fed may also purchase Treasury securities back to increase liquidity that may help financial institutions loan funds. Those initiatives can increase the circulation of the money in the economy and boost spending.
Another way to manage deflation is with changes in fiscal policy, such as lowering taxes or providing stimulus funds. Putting more money in consumers’ pockets encourages an increase in spending. This, in turn, creates a chain effect that may increase demand, increase prices, and move the economy out of a deflationary period.
The Takeaway
Deflation refers to a period that can be thought of as the opposite of inflation. It occurs when the prices consumers pay for goods and services goes down, which means that consumers can purchase more with the same amount of money.
When the economy is experiencing some turbulence, some investors may choose to keep their money in savings. On the other hand, other investors may see falling prices as an opportunity to purchase securities at a discount, either to hold or to sell when the economy recovers. Like any other investment strategy, investors must base their investment decisions on their personal preferences since there are no guaranteed results.
Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an Active Invest account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).
About the author
Ashley Kilroy
Ashley Kilroy is a seasoned personal finance writer with 15 years of experience simplifying complex concepts for individuals seeking financial security. Her expertise has shined through in well-known publications like Rolling Stone, Forbes, SmartAsset, and Money Talks News. Read full bio.
Photo credit: iStock/eclipse_images
SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.
For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $50 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.
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Apr
01
2025
How Much Debt Does the United States Have and Who Owns It?
When consumers spend more than they make, they often find themselves in debt. The same is true for countries, and the United States is no exception. When the United States spends more than it earned through taxes and other revenue sources, it creates a deficit.
The United States borrows money, typically by issuing Treasury securities, such as treasury bills (T-Bills), notes (T-Notes) and bonds (T-Bonds), to cover that difference. Every year the United States cannot pay the deficit between revenue and expenses, the national debt grows.
Here’s everything you need to know about the national debt, how it impacts the American economy, and who owns US debt.
How Much Debt Does the US Have?
As of July 2023, the United States is $32.47 trillion in debt and that number continues to climb. Some economists prefer to look at national debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). At 118.5%, the current US debt level is higher than the country’s GDP.
Who Is the US in Debt to?
There are generally two categories of debt: intragovernmental holdings and debt from the public. The debt that the government owes itself is known as intragovernmental debt. In general, this debt is owed to other government agencies such as the Social Security Trust Fund.
Because the Social Security Trust Fund doesn’t use all its generated capital, it invests the excess funds into U.S. Treasuries. If the Social Security Trust Fund needs money, it can redeem the Treasuries. As of June 2023, intergovernmental debt hovers around $6.87 trillion, making the US government the largest single owner of US debt.
The public debt consists of debt owned by individuals, businesses, governments, and foreign countries. Foreign countries own roughly one-third of U.S. public debt, with Japan owning the largest chunk of American debt hovering around $1.1 trillion. US debt to China ranks second, with that country owning roughly $859 billion of American debt.
💡 Quick Tip: Before opening an investment account, know your investment objectives, time horizon, and risk tolerance. These fundamentals will help keep your strategy on track and with the aim of meeting your goals.
What is The History of the National Debt?
Since the founding of the United States and the American revolution, debt has been a grim reality in America. When America needed funding for the Revolutionary War in 1776, it appointed a committee, which would later become the Treasury, to borrow capital from other countries such as France and the Netherlands. Thus, after the Revolutionary War in 1783, the United States had already accumulated roughly $43 million in debt.
To cover some of this debt obligation Alexander Hamilton, the first Secretary of the Treasury, rolled out federal bonds. The bonds were seemingly profitable and helped the government create credit. This bond system established an efficient way to make interest payments when the bonds matured and secure the government’s good faith state-side and internationally.
The debt load steadily grew for the next 45 years until President Andrew Jackson took office. He paid off the country’s entire $58 million debt in 1835. After his reign, however, debt began to accumulate again into the millions once again.
Flash forward to the American Civil war, which ended up costing about $5.2 billion. Because the war dragged on, the U.S. was strained to revamp the financial systems in place. To manage some of the debt at hand, the government instituted the Legal Tender Act of 1862 and the National Bank Act of 1863. Both initiatives helped lower the debt to $2.1 billion.
The government borrowed money again to fuel World War I, and then substantially more money to pay for public works projects and attempt to stem deflation during the Great Depression, and even more to pay for World War II, reaching $258 billion in 1945.
Since 1939, the United States has had a “debt ceiling,” which limits the total amount of debt that the federal government can accumulate. The Treasury can continue to borrow money to fund government operations, but the total debt cannot exceed the prescribed limit. However, Congress regularly raises the ceiling. The latest change came in June 2023, when President Biden signed a bill that suspended the limit until January 2025 in exchange for imposing some cuts on federal spending.
Since the debt ceiling was first introduced, American debt’s growth continued growing, with the pace accelerating in the 1980s. US debt tripled between 1980 and 1990. In 2008, quantitative easing during the Great Recession more than doubled the national debt from $2.1 trillion to $4.4 trillion.
More recently, the national debt has increased substantially, with Covid-related stimulus and relief programs adding nearly $2 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.
💡 Quick Tip: Newbie investors may be tempted to buy into the market based on recent news headlines or other types of hype. That’s rarely a good idea. Making good choices shouldn’t stem from strong emotions, but a solid investment strategy.
Why The National Debt Matters to Americans
As the national debt continues to skyrocket, some policymakers worry about the sustainability of rising debt, and how it will impact the future of the nation. That’s because the higher the US debt, the more of the country’s overall budget must go toward debt payments, rather than on other expenses, such as infrastructure or social services.
Those worried about the increase in debt also believe that it could lead to lower private investments, since private borrowers may compete with the federal government to borrow funds, leading to potentially higher interest rates that can affect investments and lower confidence.
In addition, research shows that countries confronted with crises while in great debt have fewer options available to them to respond. Thus, the country takes more time to recover. The increased debt could put the United States in a difficult position to handle unexpected problems, such as a recession, and could change the amount of time it moves through business cycles.
Additionally, some worry that continued borrowing by the country could eventually cause lenders to begin to question the country’s credit standing. If investors could lose confidence in the US government’s ability to pay back its debt, interest rates could rise, increasing inflation or other investment risks. While such a shift may not take place in the immediate future, it could impact future generations.
The Takeaway
The national debt is the amount of money that the US government owes to creditors. It’s a number that’s been steadily increasing, which some investors and policymakers worry could have a negative impact on the country’s economic standing going forward.
Some economists believe that the growing national debt could lead to higher interest rates and lower stock returns, so it’s a trend that investors may want to factor into their portfolio-building strategy, especially over the long-term.
Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).
About the author
Ashley Kilroy
Ashley Kilroy is a seasoned personal finance writer with 15 years of experience simplifying complex concepts for individuals seeking financial security. Her expertise has shined through in well-known publications like Rolling Stone, Forbes, SmartAsset, and Money Talks News. Read full bio.
Photo credit: iStock/Dan Comaniciu
SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.
For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.
Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
SOIN0723014
Read moreMar
31
2025
Tax Loss Tax Loss Carryforward: What Is It and How Does It Work?
The tax loss carryforward rule allows capital losses from the sale of assets to be carried over from one year to another. In other words, an investor can use capital losses realized in the current tax year to offset gains or profits in a future tax year, assuming certain restrictions are met.
Investors can use a capital loss carryforward to minimize their tax liability when reporting capital gains from investments. Business owners can also take advantage of loss carryforward rules when deducting losses each year.
Knowing how this tax provision works and when it can be applied is important from an investment tax-savings perspective.
Key Points
• Tax loss carryforward allows investors to offset capital losses against future gains, as well as taxable income.
• Investors who take advantage of the tax loss carryforward rule may reduce their overall tax liability.
• Capital loss carryforward rules prohibit violating the wash-sale rule and have limitations on deductions.
• Net operating loss carryforward is similar to capital loss carryforward for businesses operating at a loss.
• Losses can be carried forward indefinitely at the federal level, but capital losses must be used to offset capital gains in the same year.
What Is Tax Loss Carryforward?
Tax loss carryforward, sometimes called a capital loss carryover, is the process of carrying forward capital losses into future tax years. A capital loss occurs when you sell an asset, like a stock, for less than your adjusted basis.
Capital losses are the opposite of capital gains, which are realized when you sell an asset for more than your adjusted basis. In either case, taxes may come into play.
Adjusted basis means the cost of an asset, adjusted for various events (i.e., increases or decreases in value) through the course of ownership.
When you invest online or through a brokerage to purchase a stock or other security, knowing whether a capital gain or loss is short-term or long-term depends on how long you owned it before selling.
• Short-term capital losses and gains occur when an asset is held for one year or less.
• Long-term capital gains and losses are associated with assets held for longer than one year.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) allows certain capital losses, including losses associated with personal or business investments, to be deducted from taxable income.
There are limits on the amount that can be deducted each year, however, depending on the type of losses being reported.
For example, the IRS allows investors to deduct up to $3,000 from their taxable income if the capital loss is from the sales of assets like stocks, bonds, or real estate. If capital losses exceed $3,000 ($1,500 if you’re married, filing separately), the IRS allows investors to carry capital losses forward into future years and use them to reduce potential taxable income.
Recommended: SoFi’s Guide to Understanding Your Taxes
How Tax Loss Carryforwards Work
A tax loss carryforward generally allows you to report losses realized on assets in one tax year on a future year’s tax return. Realized losses differ from unrealized losses or gains, which are the change in an investment’s value compared to its purchase price before an investor sells it.
IRS loss carryforward rules apply to both personal and business assets. The main types of capital loss carryovers allowed by the Internal Revenue Code are capital loss carryforwards and net operating loss carryforwards.
Capital Loss Carryforward
Another way to describe the process of using capital losses to offset gains is that IRS rules allow investors to “harvest” tax losses, meaning they use capital losses to offset capital gains, assuming they don’t violate the wash-sale rule.
The wash-sale rule prohibits investors from buying substantially identical investments within the 30 days before or 30 days after the sale of a security for the purpose of tax-loss harvesting.
If capital losses are equal to capital gains, they will offset one another on your tax return, so there’d be nothing to carry over. For example, a $5,000 capital gain would cancel out a $5,000 capital loss and vice versa.
Remember that short-term capital losses must be applied to short-term gains, and long-term capital losses to long-term gains, owing to the difference in how capital gains are taxed.
However, if capital losses exceed capital gains, investors can deduct a portion of the losses from their ordinary income to reduce tax liability. Investors can deduct the lesser of $3,000 ($1,500 if married filing separately) or the total net loss shown on line 21 of Schedule D (Form 1040).
But any capital losses over $3,000 can be carried forward to future tax years, where investors can use capital losses to reduce future capital gains.
To figure out how to record a tax loss carryforward, you can use the Capital Loss Carryover Worksheet found on the IRS’ Instructions for Schedule D (Form 1040).
Recommended: A Guide to Tax-Efficient Investing
Net Operating Loss Carryforward
A net operating loss (NOL) occurs when a business has more deductions than income. Rather than posting a profit for the year, the company operates at a loss. Business owners may be able to claim a NOL deduction on their personal income taxes. Net operating loss carryforward rules work similarly to capital loss carryforward rules in that businesses can carry forward losses from one year to the next.
According to the IRS, for losses arising in tax years after December 31, 2020, the NOL deduction is limited to 80% of the excess of the business’s taxable income. To calculate net operating loss deductions for your business, you first have to omit items that could limit your loss, including:
• Capital losses that exceed capital gains
• Nonbusiness deductions that exceed nonbusiness income
• Qualified business income deductions
• The net operating loss deduction itself
These losses can be carried forward indefinitely at the federal level.
Note, however, that the rules for NOL carryforwards at the state level vary widely. Some states follow federal regulations, but others do not.
How Long Can Losses Be Carried Forward?
According to IRS tax loss carryforward rules, capital and net operating losses can be carried forward indefinitely. Note that the loss retains its short- or long-term characterization when carried forward.
It’s important to remember that capital loss carryforward rules don’t allow you to roll over losses without corresponding gains. IRS rules state that you must use capital losses to offset capital gains in the year they occur. You can only carry capital losses forward when and if they exceed your capital gains for the year.
As noted above, the IRS also requires you to use an apples-to-apples approach when applying capital losses against capital gains.
For example, you’d need to use short-term capital losses to offset short-term capital gains. You couldn’t use a short-term capital loss to balance out a long-term capital gain or a long-term capital loss to offset a short-term capital gain.
Example of Tax Loss Carryforward
Assume that you purchase 100 shares of XYZ stock at $50 each for a total of $5,000. Thirteen months after buying the shares, their value has doubled to $100 each, so you decide to sell, collecting a capital gain of $5,000.
Suppose you also hold 100 shares of ABC stock, which have decreased in value from $70 per share to $10 per share over that same period. If you decide to sell ABC stock, your capital losses will total $6,000 – the difference between the $7,000 you paid for the shares and the $1,000 you sold them for.
You could use $5,000 of the loss of ABC stock to offset the $5,000 gain associated with selling your shares in XYZ to reduce your capital gains tax. Per IRS rules, you could also apply the additional $1,000 loss to reduce your ordinary income for the year.
Now, say you also have another stock you sold for a $6,000 loss. Because you already have a $1,000 loss and there is a $3,000 limit on deductions, you could apply up to $2,000 to offset ordinary income in the current tax year, then carry the remaining $4,000 loss forward to a future tax year, per IRS rules.
This is an example of tax loss carryforward. All of this assumes that you don’t violate the wash-sale rule when timing the sale of losing stocks.
Recommended: What to Know about Paying Taxes on Stocks
The Takeaway
If you’re investing in a taxable brokerage account, it’s wise to include tax planning as part of your strategy. Selling stocks to realize capital gains could result in a larger tax bill if you’re not deducting capital losses at the same time.
With tax-loss harvesting, assuming you don’t violate the wash sale rule, it’s possible to carry forward investment losses to help reduce the tax impact of gains over time. This applies to personal as well as business gains and losses. Thus, understanding the tax loss carryforward provision may help reduce your personal and investment taxes.
Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).
About the author
Rebecca Lake
Rebecca Lake has been a finance writer for nearly a decade, specializing in personal finance, investing, and small business. She is a contributor at Forbes Advisor, SmartAsset, Investopedia, The Balance, MyBankTracker, MoneyRates and CreditCards.com. Read full bio.
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About the author
Rebecca Lake
Rebecca Lake has been a finance writer for nearly a decade, specializing in personal finance, investing, and small business. She is a contributor at Forbes Advisor, SmartAsset, Investopedia, The Balance, MyBankTracker, MoneyRates and CreditCards.com. Read full bio.
Photo credit: iStock/bymuratdeniz
SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.
For a full listing of the fees associated with Sofi Invest please view our fee schedule.
Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $50 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.
SOIN-Q424-010
Read moreMar
31
2025
What Is the Arms Index (TRIN)? How to Use the Indicator
The Arms Index or Trading Index (TRIN) is a breadth indicator used to indicate when the stock market is overbought and oversold. In simpler terms, it measures how strong or weak the market is on any given day.
Technical analyst Richard W. Arms developed the Arms Index formula in 1967 as a tool for gauging market sentiment. Investors still use TRIN indicators to track volatility and price movements. By looking for upward or downward trends in the TRIN and comparing them to other technical indicators, investors can potentially identify buy or sell signals.
Key Points
• The Arms Index, also known as TRIN, measures stock market strength or weakness.
• It was developed by Richard W. Arms in 1967 to gauge market sentiment.
• TRIN calculates by dividing the Advance/Decline ratio by the Advance/Decline volume ratio.
• A TRIN value above 1.0 suggests a bearish market, while below 1.0 indicates bullish conditions.
• Investors use TRIN alongside other indicators to identify potential buy or sell signals.
What Is the Arms Index (TRIN)?
The Arms Index, Trading Index or TRIN for short is a breadth oscillator used to identify pricing and value trends in the stock market. Specifically, the index looks at two things: Advance Decline ratio and Advance Decline volume ratio.
The former represents the number of advancing and declining stocks while the latter represents advancing and declining stock volume.
💡 Quick Tip: The best stock trading app? That’s a personal preference, of course. Generally speaking, though, a great app is one with an intuitive interface and powerful features to help make trades quickly and easily.
The TRIN Formula
TRIN = (Advancing stocks/Declining stocks) / (Composite volume of advancing stocks/Composite volume of declining stocks)
In this formula:
• Advancing stocks refers to the number stocks trading higher
• Declining stocks refers to the number of stocks trading lower
• Advancing volume is the total volume of all advancing stocks
• Declining volume is the total volume of all declining stocks
Investors use moving averages to smooth out the data and understand the relationship between the supply and demand for stocks during a given time period. The Arms Index aims to highlight bearish or bullish trends based on the relationship between the number of stocks being traded and the volume.
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How to Calculate TRIN
To calculate TRIN, you’d simply apply the formula outlined earlier. Again, it looks like this:
TRIN = (Advancing stocks/Declining stocks) / (Composite volume of advancing stocks/Composite volume of declining stocks)
Here’s what calculating TRIN might look like in action:
• Find AD ratio by dividing the number of advancing stocks by the number of declining stocks
• Find AD volume ratio by dividing total advancing volume by total declining volume
• Divide AD ratio by AD volume ratio
You’d perform these calculations over a set time period, recording each figure on a graph or chart as you go. For example, you might space the calculations out every few minutes, hourly or daily. You’d then connect each data point on your graph or chart to whether the TRIN is moving up or down.
Dive Deeper: How to Calculate AD Ratio
What Does TRIN Show You?
TRIN shows you the market’s volatility and the short-term direction of prices to help investors identify buying opportunities. When reading or interpreting TRIN data, you’re looking to see if it’s above 1.0 or below 1.0. This can tell you whether the market is bearish or bullish. A reading of exactly 1.0 is considered neutral.
For example, a reading below 1.0 is common when there are strong upward trends in price movements. Meanwhile, a reading above 1.0 is typical when there’s a strong downward trend. Here’s another way to think of it. When the reading is below 1.0 that means advancing stocks are driving volume but when it’s above 1.0, declining stocks are in the driver’s seat for generating volume.
You may also look at the direction TRIN is moving. A rising TRIN could indicate a weak market, while a falling TRIN may mean the market is getting stronger. Understanding how to read the data matters when determining whether the market is overbought or oversold at any given time.
Overbought
In stock trading, overbought means a stock is selling at a price above its intrinsic value. When the market is overbought, there’s generally a bullish attitude as investors keep buying in and driving up market capitalizations.
But a sell-off can happen if market sentiment turns negative. In that case, you get a reversal and prices begin to drop, potentially pushing market capitalizations down. Investors use the Arms Index or TRIN to spot this type of price movement trend and get ahead of a reversal before it happens.
Oversold
When an asset is oversold it means it’s trading below its intrinsic value. In other words, it’s trading for less than what it’s actually worth. This scenario can happen if an asset is undervalued for an extended period of time.
When investors assume the market is oversold, that can lead to an increase in buying activity. This, in turn, can drive stock prices up.
💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.
Example of Using TRIN
If you wanted to apply the TRIN in real time, you could do that using stock charts that illustrate technical indicators. So, say you want to track the movements of the S&P 500 Index for a single day, looking at prices in five-minute intervals. You begin calculating TRIN at 10:00 am, at which time it’s 1.10. This sends a sell signal to the market and prices begin edging down.
An hour later, you see that TRIN has dropped to 0.85 sending a buy signal. At this point, prices begin to move upward again. By following TRIN throughout the day you could see whether the upward trend looks like it will continue or whether it will eventually reverse. If you’re following the rule of “buy low, sell high“, you might want to time trades to correlate with stock price movements based on the trends forecasted by the TRIN.
How Is TRIN Different Than TICK?
The TRIN measures the spread or gap between supply and demand in the markets. The Tick Index or Tick Indicator shows the number of stocks trading on an uptick minus the number of stocks trading on a downtick. This trend indicator measures all of the stocks that trade on an exchange such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or Nasdaq.
Unlike Arms Index or TRIN, the Tick indicator does not factor in volumes. Instead, Tick index aims to pinpoint extreme buying or extreme selling on an intraday basis.
Is TRIN a Good Indicator?
The TRIN has both good points and bad points when used as an investment decision-making tool. No technical analysis indicator can yield precise answers when determining the best time to buy or sell.
It’s important to keep in mind that the Trading Index is just one indicator analysts use to evaluate the stock market and stock volatility. The TRIN is most helpful when used with other indicators in order to create a more comprehensive snapshot of the markets at a particular moment in time.
Pros of TRIN
The Arms Index or TRIN closely analyzes trends between advancing and declining assets. By comparing net advances to volume, it provides a picture of price movements. Volume can be a useful indicator in itself, as higher volumes can suggest more significant shifts in stock pricing.
The TRIN is forward-looking so it can be useful in forecasting which way the market will head next. By pointing out stocks that may be overbought or oversold, the indicator can provide investors with some direction when trying to buy the bottom or sell the top to maximize profits in the market.
Cons of TRIN
If the TRIN has one big flaw it’s that it may generate inaccurate readings because of the way the index accounts for volume. Specifically, you can run into problems when advancing volume falls short of expectations.
For example, say that on a given day the number of stocks advancing significantly outpaces the number of stocks declining. Meanwhile, the same trend happens with volumes, with advancing volume outstripping declining volume. When you calculate TRIN, the numbers could effectively cancel one another out, resulting in a neutral reading.
This can make it difficult to figure out if the market is trending bearish or bullish. For that reason, it may be helpful to apply a 10-day moving average (MA) to help even out the numbers and provide a more accurate picture of pricing trends.
How Investors Can Use TRIN
Technical investors can use the TRIN to analyze the market, decide whether to buy or sell, and when to make those trades to produce the best results. When using the index, you’re looking for clear markers of strength or weakness in the markets. By gauging overall market sentiment, it may become easier to make predictions about future prices.
The TRIN is, by nature, designed to monitor short-term trading activity so it may not work as well for spotting longer term trends. But you can use it to get a feel for whether the market is leaning more on the bullish or bearish side and how likely that trend is to either continue or reverse.
The Takeaway
The Arms Index or TRIN is an important concept to understand if you’re an active day trader using technical analysis. With technical analysis, you’re trying to find trends in the near term so that you can take action to capitalize them.
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Photo credit: iStock/Delmaine Donson
About the author
Rebecca Lake
Rebecca Lake has been a finance writer for nearly a decade, specializing in personal finance, investing, and small business. She is a contributor at Forbes Advisor, SmartAsset, Investopedia, The Balance, MyBankTracker, MoneyRates and CreditCards.com. Read full bio.
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