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Get Up, Get Up, Get Outta Here…

Bob Uecker, also known as “Mr. Baseball,” yells out his signature phrase whenever a player hits a home run, and that phrase is: “Get up, get up, get outta here, gone!” Yesterday, when the headline CPI print came in at +9.1% for June, that’s the phrase that played in my head.

Many have made the point that there are multiple ways to look at inflation data, and that the month-over-month numbers are actually more indicative of the trend. I agree. In fact, I think the Fed will be satisfied with their “front-loading” of hikes when they see three consecutive months of month-over-month declines in CPI, and will feel comfortable reducing the size of each hike.

Unfortunately for now, the monthly numbers are still hot, too. At this point, the earliest we will find out about a three month cooling in the data is October. That’s a long time for markets to wait-and-see. But I don’t think we have to wait that long as investors.

Who’s on First, What’s on Second, I Don’t Know’s on Third

No matter what, base runners have to cross home plate in order. In this situation, the market is on third base, followed by earnings on second base, and the economy on first.

The difference is, home plate is when they bottom, not score. In any event, the market bottoms first and we’ve already made a decent amount of progress in that direction. What I believe we’ll see now is a hit to earnings and the message from business leaders to take a decidedly cautious and less optimistic tone.

You could even argue that inflation data coming out right before the kick-off of earnings season gives companies air cover to be even more negative. And there is definitely a relationship between business confidence and CPI — they generally move in opposite directions.

Fed is at Bat, On Deck, AND in the Hole

Inflation has taken a bite out of stock and bond markets — and the bite may not be over quite yet. As we await the Q2 earnings data, we also await the Fed’s next move on July 28th, which could be a big one. I view these next two Fed meetings as the ones that will convince markets once and for all whether or not we could see a classic recession in the next 12 months. I’m not including the current possibility of a “technical” recession in the first half of this year, because it hasn’t come with enough economic cooling to stop inflation. I’m talking about a recession where unemployment rises, manufacturing data contracts, the consumer stops spending, and inflation consequently falls. In this case, the Fed would probably have to consider cutting rates, but that’s a different note for a different week.

Here’s the bottom line: If markets are going to be convinced soon that a recession is coming in the next 12 months, that means the third base runner is getting closer to home plate. Before the end of the month we could get negative earnings guidance, a 75-100bp hike from the Fed, and a negative Q2 GDP print. This scenario could prove to be bad news for markets, but good news for buyers. Don’t swing for the fences, but I do think we have to start swinging the bat before summer is over.

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Breakups can be tough. But what’s even tougher? Staying in relationships, whether with your partner or your bank, that aren’t right for you anymore. Millions kick the can down the road, but they’re missing out on the opportunity to find the right relationship or best bank for them.

SoFi recently partnered with Refinery29 to survey over a thousand Millennials for their thoughts on breakups, banking, and why people stay in relationships that no longer serve them, what problems they watch for in relationships, and how they discuss money with their partners. Overall, our survey found the two have more in common than one may think.

Staying Stuck

When it comes to relationships, people can get stuck for months or even years if it’s not right anymore. Almost half of Millennials reported staying in a romantic relationship for more than a year that was no longer right for them, and 37% have stayed with a bank for over a year that wasn’t right for them.

While that may sound like a long time, the survey found that 15% stayed in romantic relationships and 13% stayed in banking relationships for over 5 years even if it wasn’t right anymore.

But why? Many respondents said comfort and familiarity was a driving factor: 36% cited that for staying with the wrong bank for them and 42% for those in the wrong romantic relationship.

Red Flags

When it comes to red flags, they actually look pretty similar whether it’s your romantic relationship or your bank. More than half of respondents said that poor communication is one of their top three red flags for their bank and their relationship.

Other top red flags for you and your bank? A bad reputation and not taking your needs into consideration.

And what are people looking for in terms of good qualities? Trust ranked in the top three for romantic and banking relationships. When looking at women specifically, communication also ranked in the top priorities for both.

The Breakups

With people feeling stuck, how often do they actually break up? On average, Millennials have broken up with their partners 3 times, even “broken up” with a friend 3 times, but only broken up with their banks twice in their life so far.

When it comes to breaking up with their bank, less than half feel confident in knowing how to initiate the breakup.

Oil & Water and Money & Relationships

Money can be a tough topic to discuss, but even those in relationships can struggle even more on how to navigate their love lives and finances together. Over a third of respondents said they spoke to someone other than their romantic partner about their finances, such as a barista or hairdresser, and 45% actively avoided merging finances with a partner.
• Half of Millennials would rather their partner read their text messages than their bank statements.

• 1 in 3 Millennials would rather tell someone they just met their problems in their bedroom vs. their problems with their finances.

• 1 in 3 Millennials would rather tell a first date the number of people they slept with then tell them their credit score.

Why the avoidance? Well, when it comes to merging finances, of those that avoided joining bank accounts, Millennials said it was because they didn’t trust their partner fully (53%) or they feared they’d break up eventually (48%).

The one conversation Millennials would like to have on the first date? Spending habits vs. bedroom habits. When it comes to knowing about the other person, women would rather know their first date’s worst spending habit than their weirdest bedroom fantasy, while men prefer the opposite.

What Does this Mean for Me?

All in all, people may be reluctant to break up or talk about their finances, but it’s never been more important for people to find what’s best for them, whether that means their bank or their romantic partner.

Are you looking to break up with your bank? Sign up here for SoFi Checking & Savings to experience what a better banking relationship is like.

Source: Based on VICE and SoFi survey of 1,005 Millennials conducted in June 2022.

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Photo credit: iStock/howtogoto

SoFi and Refinery29 partnered to survey Millennials on their relationships with their romantic partners and their banks, and how similar the two are when it comes to red flags and how hard it can be to move on when it isn’t right anymore.