Hyperinflation occurs when prices for goods and services rise uncontrollably. It is an economic condition that fuels nightmares for consumers and for economists alike.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University professor Steve Hanke, there have been 62 documented instances of hyperinflation since the 1700s, and in every instance, economic conditions deteriorated so fast that in all cases, national currencies failed, meaning that they lost nearly all of their purchasing power both domestically and internationally.
That begs a key question: Could hyperinflation come in the United States? And, if so, could hyperinflation take down the US dollar and trigger a recession?
Theoretically, the answer is “possibly.” Realistically, the answer is “not likely.” Let’s take a look at hyperinflation and evaluate the possibility of inflation on steroids taking root in the US economy.
What is Hyperinflation?
Economists define the term as when the price of goods and services rises uncontrollably over a specific timeframe, with no short-term economic remedy able to bring those prices back down again.
While figures linked to hyperinflation vary, some economists say hyperinflation occurs when the price of goods and services in a country’s economy rise by 50% over the period of one month.
The causes of hyperinflation typically stem from a skyrocketing boost in a country’s money supply without any accompanying economic growth. That scenario usually occurs when a country’s government essentially prints and spends money in short-term bursts, thus triggering a rise in that country’s money supply.
When a government pursues a high level of short-term economic spending at a rate significantly higher than the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) rate, more money flows through the economy. When that happens, the real value of a nation’s currency declines, the price of goods and services rises, and inflation spikes.
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Is Hyperinflation Coming to the United States?
While U.S. inflation rates and the prices of many goods and services are on the upswing, economists dismiss the notion that hyperinflation is looming for the country for several reasons. First, it’s important to remember that hyperinflation and inflation aren’t the same thing, and the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates if inflation concerns grew.
The current US inflation rate stands at a relatively high rate of 5%, led by certain items such as airline ticket, lumber, and hotel rates. Many economists attribute this to ongoing inventory shortages and supply chain issues and the release of post-pandemic pent-up demand, though it remains unclear whether the inflation will continue in the short- or long-term.
Even the largest inflation rate in U.S. history – 23% in June, 1920 – wouldn’t come close to approaching hyperinflation levels of 50% in a month. Still, ongoing inflation is something that the US economy hasn’t seen in more than four decades, and it’s a risk that investors may want to consider when devising their portfolio strategy.
How Can Inflation Affect the United States?
Economists have largely downplayed the chances of a hyperinflationary scenario in the United States, but with inflation on the rise, it’s helpful for consumers to get a better grip on hyperinflation, in particular, and on inflation in general.
Here’s how inflation can impact the US economy:
Falling Dollar Value
Like most major global currencies, the dollar trades on foreign currency exchanges. When a country faces inflationary risks, investors grow skittish, and may bypass that country’s currency in favor of more stable currencies. Even without hyperinflation, a weaker dollar can significantly hurt the U.S. economy.
(Hyperinflation is the extreme opposite of what happens during deflation, in which prices for goods and services decline and the value of a currency rises.)
Fewer Major Purchases
As inflation seeps into an economy, high prices may prompt individuals and businesses to defer or cancel large purchases. Consumers, for example, could hold off buying new homes, new vehicles, or major household appliances. For businesses, might postpone big-ticket purchases like heavy machinery, office buildings, and commercial vehicles.
Some investors may hesitate to put money into stocks in a down market. All of those decisions could stall economic growth, as fewer dollars are circulating through the economy.
When inflation occurs, banks and financial institutions may not lend money or extend credit to consumers and businesses, as confidence in the overall economy wanes.
The economic fix for skyrocketing inflation typically comes from a country’s central bank. In the United States, that would be the Federal Reserve. When necessary, the Federal Reserve uses monetary policy to slow rising inflation by curbing the US money supply, often by raising interest rates. Higher interest rates give consumers and businesses more incentive to save and less incentive to spend. That, in turn, slows rising inflation.
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Lower Investment Returns
Inflation eats into real investment returns. As the value of a dollar declines, investors need to earn more than their average return on investment in order to generate the same purchasing power.
Real-World Examples of Hyperinflation
Zimbabwe offers a relatively recent example of hyperinflation. A decade ago, Zimbabwe’s inflation rate stood at a staggering 98% daily inflation rate as the country’s economy went into free fall. That means consumer prices doubled on a daily basis.
Today, the Zimbabwe dollar is no longer in circulation, as the country continues to struggle with the issues that often lead to hyperinflation, such as an increased money supply, political corruption, and a major decline in economic activity. Unable to use its own currency, Zimbabwe now relies on foreign currencies like the US dollar and South Africa’s rand as a medium of currency exchange.
Even historically stable country economies have experienced hyperinflation.
In the immediate aftermath of World War I, the Weimer Republic of Germany fell into economic decline due to war reparation debts and significantly reduced economic activity. The German government printed too much money in an effort to handle its economic obligations and to ignite a stagnant economy. The country faced an inflation rate of 323% per month by November, 1923 – that’s an annual inflation rate of three billion percent.
In today’s dollars, the consumer impact of hyperinflation is particularly onerous. For example, a cup of coffee that normally would cost $3 would cost $22 at a 1,000% inflation rate. Similarly, a rental payment for an apartment in a major US city might normally cost $2,000. With a 1,000% inflation rate, that rent would cost $22,000.
Hyperinflation also exists on the world’s economic stage in 2021. Venezuela, for example, has an estimated inflation rate of 438%.
While hyperinflation is certainly an economic condition any country would strive to avoid, there’s no compelling evidence suggesting it’s on the U.S. economic horizon – now or anytime in the near future. Still, the country could be headed toward an inflationary period, so investors may consider using some inflation-hedging strategies to reduce its impact.
When you’re ready to start building a portfolio, one great way to get started is by opening an account on the SoFi Invest brokerage platform. It allows individual investors to build a portfolio of stocks, exchange-traded funds, and even cryptocurrency.
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