Payback Period: Formula and Calculation Examples

The payback period is when an investment generates enough cashflow or value to cover its initial cost. It’s the time it takes to get to the break-even point. Knowing the payback period is something that investors, corporations, and consumers use as a way to gauge whether an investment or purchase is likely to be profitable or worthwhile.

For example, if a $1 million investment in new technology is likely to increase company revenue by $200,000 a year, the payback period for that technology is five years.

A longer payback period is associated with higher risk, and a shorter payback period is associated with lower risk and a greater potential for returns. While calculating the payback period is fairly straightforward, it doesn’t take into account a number of factors, including the time value of money.

What Is the Payback Period?

The payback period is the amount of time it will take to recoup the initial cost of an investment, or to reach its break-even point.

Although investors who are thinking about buying stock in a certain company may want to consider the payback period for certain capital projects at that company (and whether those might support growth), the payback period is more commonly used for budgeting purposes by companies deciding how best to allocate resources for maximum return.

While the payback period is only an estimate, and it doesn’t factor in unforeseen or future outcomes, it’s a useful tool that can provide a baseline for assessing the relative value of one investment over another.

The Value of Time

The payback period can help investors decide between different investments that may be similar, when investing online or via a broker-dealer, as they’ll often want to choose the one that will pay back in the shortest amount of time.

The longer money remains locked up in an investment without earning a return, the more time an investor must wait until they can access that cash again, and the more risk there is of losing the initial investment capital.

Recommended: How to Calculate Expected Rate of Return

How to Calculate the Payback Period

The payback period is calculated by dividing the cost of the investment by the annual cash flow until the cumulative cash flow is positive, which is the payback year. Payback period is generally expressed in years.

Prior to calculating the payback period of a particular investment, one might consider what their maximum payback period would be in order to move forward with the investment. This will help give them some parameters to work with when making investment decisions.

Payback Period Formula (Averaging Method)

There are two basis payback period formulas:

Payback Period = Initial Investment / Yearly Cash Flow

Using the averaging method, the initial amount of the investment is divided by annualized cash flows an investment is projected to generate. This works well if cash flows are predictable or expected to be consistent over time, but otherwise this method may not be very accurate.

Payback Formula (Subtraction Method)

Using the subtraction method, an investor can start by subtracting individual annual cash flows from the initial investment amount, and then do the division. This method is more effective if cash flows vary from year to year.

Payback Period = the last year with negative cash flow + (Amount of cash flow at the end of that year / Cash flow during the year after that year)

Other factors

Investors might also choose to add depreciation and taxes into the equation, to account for any lost value of an investment over time.

Consumers may want to consider the payback period when making repairs to their home, or investing in a new amenity. For example: How long would it take to recoup the cost of installing a fuel-efficient furnace?

Benefits of Using the Payback Period

The payback period is simple to understand and calculate. It can provide individuals and companies with valuable insights into potential investments, and help them decide which option provides the best return on investment (ROI). It also helps with assessing the risk of different investments. Advantages include:

•  Easy to understand

•  Simple to calculate

•  Tool for risk assessment

•  Helps with comparing and choosing investment options

•  Provides insights for financial planning

•  Other calculations, such as net present value and internal rate of return, may not provide similar insights

•  A look at the amount of time it takes to recoup an investment

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Downsides of Using the Payback Period

Although the payback period can be a useful calculation for individuals and companies considering and comparing investments, it has some downsides.

A Limited Time Period

The calculation only looks at the time period up until the initial investment will be recouped. It doesn’t consider the earnings the investment will bring in after that, which may either be higher or lower, and could determine whether it makes sense as a long-term investment.

If earnings will continue to increase, a longer payback period might be acceptable. If earnings might decrease after a certain number of years, the investment may not be a good idea even if it breaks even quickly. On the other hand, an investment with a short lifespan could need replacement shortly after its payback period, making it a potentially poor investment.

Other Factors May Add or Subtract Value

The payback period also doesn’t take into consideration other ways an investment might bring value, such as partnerships or brand awareness. This can result in investors overlooking the long-term benefits of the investment since they’re too focused on short-term ROI.

The payback period equation also doesn’t take into account the effects an investment might have on the rest of the company’s operations. For instance, new equipment might require a significant amount of expensive power, or might not be able to run as often as it would need to in order to reach the payback goal.

The Time Value of an Investment

Another limitation of the payback period is that it doesn’t take the time value of money (TVM) into account. The time value of money is the idea that cash will be worth more in the future than it is worth today, due to the amount of interest that it can generate.

Not only does this apply to the initial capital put into an investment, but it’s also important because as an investment generates returns, that cash can then be reinvested into something else that earns interest or income. This is another reason that a shorter payback period could be viewed as an attractive investment.

When Would an Investor Use the Payback Period?

The payback period can apply to personal investments such as solar panels or property maintenance, or investments in equipment or other assets that a company might consider acquiring.

Often an investment that requires a large amount of capital upfront generates steady or increasing returns over time, although there is also some risk that the returns won’t turn out as hoped or predicted.

How Companies Use the Payback Period

Calculating payback periods is especially important for startup companies with limited capital that want to be sure they can recoup their money without going out of business. Companies also use the payback period to select between different investment opportunities or to help them understand the risk-reward ratio of a given investment.

Knowing the payback period is helpful if there’s a risk of a project ending in the future. For example, if a company might lose a lease or a contract, the sooner they can recoup any investments they’re making into their business the less risk they have of losing that capital.

Any particular project or investment can have a short or long payback period. A short period means the investment breaks even or gets paid back in a relatively short amount of time by the cash flow generated by the investment, whereas a long period means the investment takes longer to recoup. How investors understand that period will depend on their time horizon.

The Takeaway

Understanding the potential payback period for a given investment can help you gauge possible risks and reward for a certain asset, because it helps you to calculate when you’re likely to recoup your initial investment. You can also use the payback period when making large purchase decisions and considering their opportunity cost.

Understanding the way that companies calculate their payback period is also helpful to determine their financial viability and whether it makes sense for you to invest in them as part of your portfolio.

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FAQ

What are the two payback period formulas?

Two of the simplest and most common payback period formulas are the averaging method and the subtraction method.

What does the payback period refer to in investing?

The payback period is the estimated amount of time it will take to recoup an investment or to break even. Generally, the longer the payback period, the higher the risk of the associated investment.

What are some downsides of using the payback period?

The payback period may not consider the earnings an investment brings in following an initial investment, or other ways that an investment could generate value. It also doesn’t take into account the time value of money.

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