This article appeared in SoFi's On the Money newsletter. Not getting it? Sign up here.

It’s no secret that buying a house is expensive these days, especially for first-time buyers who don’t own any real estate to trade up with. Between high mortgage rates and steep property prices, prospective homeowners often can’t afford the monthly payments for the houses they want.

At the same time, it’s not the seller’s market it was during the pandemic buying boom of 2020 and 2021: There are more and more houses for sale, median list prices have started to level off (and even fall in some areas) and U.S. homes are now sitting on the market for longer than they were before COVID, according to Realtor.com data.

With neither buyers nor sellers feeling great about the prospects, the market has been pretty comatose all around. This spring was the slowest April and May since 2009, and monthly sales continue to run at about two-thirds of what they were four years ago, according to data from the National Association of Realtors^® (NAR).

But since the biggest remaining sticking point seems to be the high borrowing costs, there could be a shift this fall, according to economists. The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.34% last week — still much higher than the sub-3% record it hit in 2020, but lower than it was for most of the spring and summer. Depending on where rates go from here, that could help unlock a “second spring market,” according to NAR.

“Mortgage rates are declining, and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told NAR’s Realtor magazine.

To be sure, it’s hard to say where mortgage rates will go, given uncertainty about the trajectory of the economy. Mortgage rates really started falling in August, when it became clear the Federal Reserve was more focused on cutting its benchmark interest rate, but they don’t always move in the same direction as the Fed’s benchmark.

In fact, although Fannie Mae is projecting 30-year mortgage rates will continue to edge down — averaging under 6% by the end of 2026 — they've ticked up a bit over the past two weeks.

So what? If you’ve been sidelined by high mortgage rates, things may be looking up. Rates aren’t as low as they were in 2020 or 2021, but they’re close to their lowest point of 2025.

Plus, the fall could be “a sweet spot” because it’s not traditionally as competitive a time of year, according to Zillow Senior Economist Kara Ng. Prices dropped on nearly 20% of U.S. listings in September, with sellers of homes listed between $350,000 and $500,000 the most likely to cut, according to Realtor.com data.

“House hunters are still on the fence, hoping mortgage rates come down more before they buy,” Crystal Zschirnt, a Redfin Premier agent in Dallas, said in a Redfin statement last week. “But the buyers who are jumping in now are the ones who are getting a good deal.”

Related Reading

What the Government Shutdown Means for Mortgage Rates as Financial Markets React (Realtor.com)

Will Mortgage Interest Rates Drop Further This Fall? Lending Experts Weigh In (CBS News)

A Top Economist Has a Simple Fix for America's Housing Crisis (AOL)

Please understand that this information provided is general in nature and shouldn’t be construed as a recommendation or solicitation of any products offered by SoFi’s affiliates and subsidiaries. In addition, this information is by no means meant to provide investment or financial advice, nor is it intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision or recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.

The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this content.

SoFi isn't recommending and is not affiliated with the brands or companies displayed. Brands displayed neither endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks and service marks referenced are property of their respective owners.

OTM20251008SW