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Given the recent headlines, you may be surprised to learn that the U.S. IPO market has been in a bit of a drought the past four years.

When interest rates surged in 2022, IPO activity tanked — and has yet to fully recover. Between higher-yielding bonds and stock market volatility, investors have generally been less willing to pay for newly issued stock, leaving many fast-growing companies to sustain themselves on private funding.

But has the climate finally changed enough for a true IPO comeback?

Publicity around three potentially monumental public debuts is already making 2026 feel different: Elon Musk's SpaceX is expected to start trading this week, and AI giants Anthropic and OpenAI are widely anticipated to have similarly super-sized offerings as soon as later this year.

"Those will be two big moments, and if those go well, then the floodgates will probably open," Tom Farley, former president of the New York Stock Exchange, told SoFi's Liz Thomas on the latest episode of The Important Part, referring to SpaceX and OpenAI.

That said, these aren't typical IPO candidates. They are massive private companies with potentially record-breaking valuations, global name recognition, and of course, central roles in the AI ecosystem. They could arguably attract investor demand regardless of what is happening elsewhere in the IPO market.

IPOs by the numbers

Although annual IPO activity has been recovering steadily since 2022, last year's IPOs still raised less than a third of the proceeds of 2021, according to data tracked by Renaissance Capital.

The momentum has been choppy so far this year, with geopolitical uncertainty, market volatility, and concern about AI disruptions dampening the pipeline. As of June 8, 68 IPOs of at least $50 million had priced — 18% fewer than at the same time last year, Renaissance data shows. However, those 68 IPOs raised $34.2 billion in proceeds — well over double the capital raised by that point last year and not that far off from the $44 billion raised in all of 2025.

Also worth noting: So-called SPAC, or "blank check," IPOs had their strongest quarter since 2021 in the first three months of this year, according to consulting firm PwC. These involve shell companies going public with the intent of buying a private business.

But what does the hype over SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI say about IPOs in industries beyond AI, aerospace, and defense? While the equity team at EY has called it a "selective" market for "favored" industries, Morgan Stanley sees a broader revival.

"Despite the focus on these dominant themes, today's IPO market extends well beyond them," Morgan Stanley's equity team wrote in a May 27 report. "Recent issuance has spanned sectors including real estate, healthcare, metals and mining, and consumer retail — demonstrating a healthy reopening of the market to a wider range of companies."

The push and pull

Whether this reopening takes hold ultimately comes down to the balance of tailwinds vs. headwinds.

Interest rates have edged down since 2022, which simultaneously lowers corporate borrowing costs and coaxes yield-hungry investors off the sidelines.

At the same time, the S&P 500's recent march into record territory creates a more favorable backdrop. Historically, there tends to be more IPOs when the stock market is outperforming because investors are primed to pay premium valuations for new stock. (This was the case in the dot-com boom.)

All that said, market enthusiasm can quickly become a double-edged sword if the expectations that are baked in are too high. And lingering uncertainty about geopolitics or the trajectory of interest rates could leave companies hesitant to pull the trigger.

So what?

Whether these potentially blockbuster debuts open the IPO floodgates or not, a few cautionary notes if you're thinking about participating in a public offering: A mature company can behave very differently than an early-stage startup. And some IPOs age better than others.

For instance, among the ten largest IPOs of recent decades, only two had produced positive investor returns six months later, according to calculations from Mercer Advisors.

The bottom line: The price of new stock is notoriously volatile. IPOs often make headlines for their dramatic first-day jumps, but others flop. And many struggle in the months following their IPO — even if they're ultimately successful long-term businesses.

Related Reading

Upcoming IPO Calendar 2026 (Renaissance Capital)

How To Think About IPOs in 2026 (LPL Research)

Demystifying IPOs: What Every Investor Should Know (SoFi)

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