An uneasy calm has settled over markets, but the quiet is unlikely to last. With the Independence Day holiday in the rearview mirror, attention now turns to potential fireworks elsewhere. The main event is Wednesday, the date a 90-day pause on a slate of broad, reciprocal tariffs is set to expire. Back in April, the Trump administration temporarily reduced these country-specific duties to a 10% baseline to allow time for new bilateral trade agreements to be negotiated. Since then, the president has signaled little appetite for extending the delay, suggesting the looming deadline will stick for any countries that haven’t reached a deal. Now, investors have so far been largely sanguine about all this — stocks are near record highs, after all — but a return to a high-tariff environment could have major ripple effects, even if not quite as severe as initially feared in April. Federal Reserve officials have said they expect tariffs to raise prices this summer, though the degree to which they could reignite inflation remains to be seen. How things play out will be crucial in setting the market's tone for the rest of the summer.

Monday

•   Nothing of note.

Tuesday

•   June NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions.

•   June New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: This is a measure of peoples’ expectations for inflation, jobs prospects, earnings growth, and more.

•   May Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.

Wednesday

•   May Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.

•   FOMC Meeting Minutes: The Federal Reserve releases detailed notes of every FOMC meeting three weeks after their conclusion. Investors often look for more information on Fed officials’ views for hints on the outlook for interest rates and the economy.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

Thursday

•   Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Initial jobless claims have remained mostly steady, while continuing claims have increased of late.

•   Fedspeak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will discuss the economy and monetary policy at an Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum event. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will discuss the economic outlook and challenges for policymakers at an event hosted by MNI Connect.

•   Earnings: Conagra Brands (CAG), Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Friday

•   June Treasury Statement: This summarizes the U.S. federal government budget by tracking government revenues and expenditures.  

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