Guiding Through the Storm
Financial markets are bracing for the most intense week of the S&P 500 earnings season, with results due from 184 companies (37% of the entire index). Critically, this wave includes reports from tech titans like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, whose capital expenditures and innovation have helped drive markets higher over the last few years. This earnings deluge arrives against a backdrop of significant global trade friction, which has injected considerable uncertainty into the economic forecast. It has also stoked fear of a recession, which betting markets now consider more likely than not in 2025. The raw earnings numbers, while important, will compete with executive commentary for investor attention. Tariffs directly impact supply chains, input costs, and demand – and investors will be laser-focused on how management teams are navigating these challenges. Are cost pressures being absorbed, or passed on through price increases? Are companies seeing signs of shifting consumer and business behavior? Already, some have noted the difficulty in forecasting amidst such policy uncertainty, giving any forward-looking statements – or lack thereof – outsized significance this week. While first-quarter results will largely reflect a pre-tariff environment period for many, the insights gleaned from management calls about current conditions and expectations will be paramount. The sheer volume of reports, the influence of the tech behemoths reporting, and the ongoing trade policy drama will combine to make the upcoming week a crucial juncture for assessing corporate health and the broader economic trajectory for the rest of this year.Economic and Earnings Calendar
Monday
• April Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings: Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Brown & Brown (BRO), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Cincinnati Financial (CINF), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), F5 Networks (FFIV), Nucor (NUE), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Roper Technologies (ROP), PerkinElmer (RVTY), SBA Communications (SBAC), Teradyne (TER), Universal Health Services (UHS), Welltower (WELL), Waste Management (WM)
Tuesday
• March Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.
• March Wholesale and Retail Inventories: Wholesalers and retailers often operate as intermediaries for the sale of manufactured products, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.
• February FHFA House Price Index: This is a broad measure of single-family house prices released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
• February S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index: This is a private sector measure of national home prices. After a period of slight decline in the second half of 2022 and early 2023, the index returned to growth and is now at record highs.
• March Job Openings: A key measure of business demand for labor is the number of job openings, since reducing openings is easier and preferable to layoffs.
• April Conference Board Consumer Confidence: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on job availability and the state of the labor market.
• April Dallas Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings: Arch Capital Group (ACGL), American Tower (AMT), A O Smith (AOS), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Boston Properties (BXP), CoStar Group (CSGP), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), Ecolab (ECL), Edison International (EIX), Equity Residential (EQR), Essex Property Trust (ESS), Entergy (ETR), Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), Extra Space Storage (EXR), Fair Isaac (FICO), First Solar (FSLR), Corning (GLW), General Motors (GM), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Honeywell International (HON), Incyte (INCY), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Coca-Cola (KO), Laboratory of America Holdings (LH), Mondelez International (MDLZ), Altria Group (MO), ONEOK (OKE), PACCAR (PCAR), Pfizer (PFE), PPG Industries (PPG), PayPal (PYPL), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Regency Centers (REG), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Starbucks (SBUX), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), S&P Global (SPGI), Seagate Technologies (STX), Sysco (SYY), United Parcel Service (UPS), Visa (V), Veralto Corporation (VLTO), Xylem (XYL), Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)
Wednesday
• April ADP Employment Report: This survey, usually released a day or two before the official government jobs report, offers insight into private sector employment trends.
• 1Q GDP First Estimate: The primary measure of economic activity in the United States, which is measured as total expenditure on a country’s goods and services.
• 1Q Employment Cost Index: This is the most comprehensive measure of worker compensation, including wages, bonuses, benefits and more.
• April Chicago Business Barometer: The barometer provides information on U.S. economic activity and business conditions, consisting of seven activity indicators and three buying policy indicators.
• March Personal Income and Spending: These numbers give insight into how Americans are doing, which is important since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth in the United States.
• March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: The Fed targets this inflation measure for its price stability mandate and believes PCE to be the best measure of consumers’ spending habits.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings: Automatic Data Processing (ADP), American Electric Power (AEP), Aflac (AFL), Albemarle (ALB), Align Technology (ALGN), Allstate (ALL), Amcor PLC (AMCR), ANSYS (ANSS), AvalonBay Communities (AVB), American Water Works (AWK), Caterpillar (CAT), Crown Castle International (CCI), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), eBay (EBAY), Everest RE Group (EG), Equinix (EQIX), GE HealthCare Technologies Inc (GEHC), Globe Life (GL), Generac Holdings (GNRC), Garmin (GRMN), Hess (HES), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST), Humana (HUM), Invitation Homes (INVH), International Paper (IP), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), MetLife (MET), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Microsoft (MSFT), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), PPL (PPL), Prudential Financial (PRU), Public Storage (PSA), PTC (PTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Trane Technologies (TT), UDR (UDR), Vici Properties (VICI), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Ventas (VTR), Western Digital (WDC), YUM! Brands (YUM)
Thursday
• April Challenger Job Cuts: The firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks the number of layoff announcements each month by sector.
• April ISM Manufacturing PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector feel about the business environment.
• March Construction Spending: Construction data is a leading indicator of business activity.
• April Wards Total Vehicle Sales: Cars are a big ticket item for consumers, so underlying vehicle sales trends can help shine a light on demand for durable goods.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.
• Earnings: Apple (AAPL), Airbnb (ABNB), Ameren (AEE), American International Group (AIG), Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG), Ametek (AME), Amgen (AMGN), Amazon (AMZN), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), Aptiv (APTV), Baxter International (BAX), Becton Dickinson and Company (BDX), Biogen (BIIB), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), Cardinal Health (CAH), Carrier Global Corp (CARR), Church & Dwight (CHD), Camden Property Trust (CPT), CVS Health (CVS), Dominion Energy (D), DTE Energy (DTE), DexCom (DXCM), Consolidated Edison (ED), Estee Lauder Companies (EL), EOG Resources (EOG), Eversource Energy (ES), Exelon (EXC), Fortive (FTV), GoDaddy (GDDY), WW Grainger (GWW), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), Hologic (HOLX), Hershey (HSY), Hubbell (HUBB), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), IDEX (IEX), Ingersoll Rand (IR), Iron Mountain (IRM), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Kellogg (K), Kimco Realty (KIM), KKR & Co (KKR), Linde PLC (LIN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), Mastercard (MA), McDonald's (MCD), Mohawk Industries (MHK), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), Moderna (MRNA), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Mettler-Toledo International (MTD), Parker-Hannifin (PH), Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), Quanta Services (PWR), Southern Company (SO), Smurfit WestRock (SW), Stryker (SYK), Targa Resources (TRGP)
Friday
• April Employment Situation Summary: This monthly blockbuster release from the Labor Department gives a comprehensive look at employment, wages, and hours worked in the previous month.
• March Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.
• Earnings: AES (AES), Apollo Global Management, Inc (APO), Franklin Resources (BEN), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), Cigna (CI), Chevron (CVX), DuPont de Nemours (DD), DaVita (DVA), Eaton Corp (ETN), Monster Beverage (MNST), Trimble (TRMB), T Rowe Price Group (TROW), Exxon Mobil (XOM)
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