The first-quarter earnings season is winding down, but they say you should always save the best for last. Or, at the very least, the most highly anticipated.

Part of an investor's job is to try and balance the scales of bearishness and bullishness. On the bearish side, there is the spike in oil prices since the Iran war, rising inflation, and a Federal Reserve that is in no rush to lower interest rates. On the bullish side is the seemingly never-ending optimism surrounding artificial intelligence.

Lately, the AI side of the scale has been winning. Despite the messy macro backdrop, tech stocks have ripped higher. Investors have essentially said the transformative power of AI will outweigh every headwind.

That thesis gets its next big test when Nvidia reports its quarterly results Wednesday. The company's specialized chips are powering everything from large language models to advanced data centers. It's not an exaggeration to say that there may be no company more important to the technological revolution than Nvidia.

If it delivers another blowout quarter and strong guidance, Nvidia could reinforce the narrative that the AI boom is still nowhere near finished, validating tech stocks' recent move higher. However, if Nvidia even hints at a capital expenditures slowdown, it could tarnish the shine and leave investors to once again grapple with those macroeconomic headwinds.

On the Docket

Monday

•   May New York Services Activity: The New York Fed's survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   May NAHB Housing Market Index: This index tracks how homebuilders feel about the current and future state of the single-family housing market.

Tuesday

•   ADP Weekly Employment Change: This survey offers insight into weekly private sector employment trends.

•   Fedspeak: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will participate in a panel discussion at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy at the European Central Bank, followed by moderated Q&A. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will discuss the economic outlook at the Atlanta Fed's 2026 Financial Markets Conference, followed by audience Q&A.

•   Earnings

◦   Major companies: Home Depot (HD)

◦   Others: Keysight Technologies (KEYS)

Wednesday

•   FOMC Meeting Minutes: The Federal Reserve releases detailed notes of every FOMC meeting three weeks after their conclusion. Investors often look for more information on Fed officials' views for hints on the outlook for interest rates and the economy.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

•   Fedspeak: Fed Governor Michael Barr will discuss consumer financial health at the Financial Health Network EMERGE 2026 Conference.

•   Earnings

◦   Major companies: NVIDIA (NVDA), Analog Devices (ADI), TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe's Companies (LOW), Intuit (INTU)

◦   Others: Target (TGT), Nordson (NDSN)

Thursday

•   May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed's survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   April Building Permits and Housing Starts: Construction data is a leading indicator of economic activity.

•   May S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.

•   May Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed's survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   Earnings

◦   Major companies: Walmart (WMT), Deere & Company (DE)

◦   Others: Ross Stores (ROST), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Copart (CPRT), Workday (WDAY), Ralph Lauren (RL), Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Friday

•   May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.

•   May Kansas City Fed Services Activity: The Kansas City Fed's survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   Fedspeak: Waller will discuss the economic outlook during a guest lecture at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, followed by moderated Q&A.

•   Earnings: Williams-Sonoma (WSM)

Note: Companies with at least $100 billion in market capitalization are shown in the "Major companies" sections.

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