This week the market will be hoping for its own declaration of independence — a decisive break from the recent uncertainty and a clear signal on the future path of interest rates. Investors are bracing for a condensed but critical batch of economic data. Several key reports are clustered together, setting the stage for potential market fireworks ahead of the long weekend. On Tuesday, the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) should provide insight into how employers are feeling about hiring these days. But the real sparks could fly on a jam-packed Thursday, when the main focus will be the Employment Situation Report. (It will be released early because of the Fourth of July holiday Friday.) Investors will parse the headline numbers — job growth, wage growth, and the unemployment rate — for signs of strength or weakness in the labor market. Any downside surprises could fuel talk of a potential interest rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting in July, while a hot jobs report would all but eliminate the possibility of one.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

•   June Chicago Business Barometer: The barometer provides information on U.S. economic activity and business conditions, consisting of seven activity indicators and three buying policy indicators.

•   June Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   Fedspeak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss the economic outlook at an event hosted by MNI Connect. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the 2025 Aspen Ideas Festival.

•   Earnings: Campbell Soup (CPB)

Tuesday

•   June ISM Manufacturing PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector feel about the business environment.

•   May Construction Spending: Construction data is a leading indicator of business activity.

•   May Job Openings: A key measure of business demand for labor is the number of job openings, since reducing openings is easier and preferable to layoffs.

•   June Dallas Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   June Wards Total Vehicle Sales: Cars are a big ticket item for consumers, so underlying vehicle sales trends can help shine a light on demand for durable goods.

•   Fedspeak: Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion alongside leaders of other central banks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking.

•   Earnings: Constellation Brands (STZ)

Wednesday

•   June Challenger Job Cuts: The firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks the number of layoff announcements each month by sector.

•   June ADP Employment Report: This survey, usually released a day or two before the official government jobs report, offers insight into private sector employment trends.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

Thursday

•   May Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity.

•   June Employment Situation Summary: This monthly blockbuster release from the Labor Department gives a comprehensive look at employment, wages, and hours worked in the previous month.

•   June S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment.

•   June ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.

•   May Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators

•   Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits.

•   Fedspeak: Bostic will discuss monetary policy as part of the IMFS Distinguished Lecture Series.

•   Earnings: MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX)

Friday

•   Markets are closed on Independence Day.  

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