This week promises to be a pivotal one for financial markets, with attention squarely back on inflation. Investors will get a double dose of inflation data with the release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Consensus forecasts for the more closely-watched CPI are for a year-over-year increase of 2.5% for the headline number and 2.9% for the core reading, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components. The PPI, which measures inflation at the wholesale level, will also be closely watched for signs of price pressures in the production pipeline. Both indicators unexpectedly came in below estimates last month, so whether that trend continues or reverses will be of great importance to markets. The fresh look at price pressures will be followed by a preliminary reading of the June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. It should offer a glimpse into how households are reacting to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs, and if anxieties are intensifying or easing. Feelings often drive behavior, and as a result, they can be a leading indicator of economic activity.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

•   April Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.

•   May New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: This is a measure of peoples’ expectations for inflation, jobs prospects, earnings growth, and more.

Tuesday

•   May NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions.

•   Earnings: JM Smucker (SJM)

Wednesday

•   May Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers.

•   May Treasury Statement: This summarizes the U.S. federal government budget by tracking government revenues and expenditures.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

•   Earnings: Oracle (ORCL)

Thursday

•   May Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle.

•   Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.

•   Earnings: Adobe (ADBE)

Friday

•   June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.  

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