After a long holiday weekend, it's time to get back to business. This week serves up a bunch of economic updates that could easily dictate Wall Street's mood for the rest of the spring.
At a Glance
• The news: A packed economic calendar includes the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a preliminary read on consumer sentiment, and minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting.
• The context: Oil prices and geopolitical tensions have thrown a wrench into the Fed's plans to cut interest rates, and investors are laser focused on how the tumult is bleeding into the broader economy.
• Your move: An uptick in inflation or caution in the Fed minutes could keep Treasury yields climbing. Meanwhile, another dip in consumer sentiment would signal that the average American is feeling more financially squeezed.
How much sleep are policymakers actually losing over the conflict in Iran, surging oil and gas prices, and the increasingly elusive path back to 2% inflation? To be determined. We already know from their last gathering that interest rates are staying put for the foreseeable future, but this week’s minutes will elaborate on the reasons for that decision.
Then comes the main event: The March CPI report drops on Friday, along with preliminary April consumer sentiment data. With the spike fuel costs, a bump in the headline inflation number is widely expected. What’s less clear, however, is what core prices (i.e. excluding food and energy) are doing.
Investors also want to know how everyday Americans are handling this cocktail of expensive gas, economic uncertainty, and high borrowing costs. Worsening sentiment could be an early warning sign that the primary engine of the U.S. economy — consumer spending — is starting to buckle.
Economic Calendar
Monday
• March ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.
• Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will discuss the economy at an event with the Staten Island Economic Development Corporation, followed by moderated Q&A.
Tuesday
• February Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.
• March New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: This is a measure of peoples’ expectations for inflation, jobs prospects, earnings growth, and more.
• February Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.
• Fedspeak: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will give opening remarks on human capital and low real interest rates at a virtual event for the regional Fed’s Economic Mobility Project.
• Earnings: Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Wednesday
• FOMC Meeting Minutes: The Federal Reserve releases detailed notes of every FOMC meeting three weeks after their conclusion. Investors often look for more information on Fed officials’ views for hints on the outlook for interest rates and the economy.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Fedspeak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will discuss the economy and monetary policy at the American Enterprise Institute, followed by moderated Q&A.
• Earnings: Delta Air Lines (DAL), Constellation Brands (STZ)
Thursday
• February Personal Income and Spending: These numbers give insight into how Americans are doing, which is important since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth in the United States.
• February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: The Fed targets this inflation measure for its price stability mandate and believes PCE to be the best measure of consumers’ spending habits.
• 4Q GDP Third Estimate: The primary measure of economic activity in the United States, which is measured as total expenditure on a country’s goods and services.
• February Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.
• Earnings: PTC (PTC)
Friday
• March Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers.
• April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.
• February Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.
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