The market is pretty pessimistic about interest rate relief, with traders pricing in about a 25% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate at its March meeting.
But this week we’ll get a double dose of data to help gauge whether that pessimism is justified, with both the January jobs report and consumer inflation report scheduled for release following last week’s brief government shutdown.
• If the data runs "hot" (more jobs added, higher inflation than expected), that 25% chance could drop to zero. This means that, all else being equal, mortgage rates, auto loans and credit card APRs could stay elevated or even tick higher as the market adapts to a stronger economy.
• If the data runs "cold" (fewer jobs added, lower inflation than expected), the odds of a March cut could spike. This would likely spark a rally in stocks and send Treasury yields down, eventually offering some relief on borrowing costs.
Whether you are trading a portfolio or just waiting to refinance a home, these numbers could go a long way in setting the market tone as recent upheaval leaves investors on edge.
Economic and Earnings Calendar
Monday
• January New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: This is a measure of peoples’ expectations for inflation, jobs prospects, earnings growth, and more.
• Fedspeak: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will discuss digital assets. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will take part in a moderated conversation with the editor of Pro Farmer, followed by Q&A.
• Earnings: Arch Capital Group (ACGL), Apollo Global Management, Inc (APO), Becton Dickinson and Company (BDX), Cincinnati Financial (CINF), Loews (L), ON Semiconductor (ON), Principal Financial Group (PFG), UDR (UDR), Waters (WAT)
Tuesday
• January NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions.
• December Import/Export Price Indexes: These indexes track the changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.
• 4Q Employment Cost Index: This is the most comprehensive measure of worker compensation, including wages, bonuses, benefits and more.
• December Retail Sales: This measures spending at retail stores and is a key indicator of consumer demand.
• Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will discuss the banking and economic outlook. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will give a speech at the 2026 Asset Management Derivatives forum, followed by Q&A.
• Earnings: American International Group (AIG), Assurant (AIZ), CVS Health (CVS), DuPont de Nemours (DD), Datadog (DDOG), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Duke Energy (DUK), Ecolab (ECL), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Ford (F), Fiserv (FISV), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Hasbro (HAS), Robinhood (HOOD), Incyte (INCY), Coca-Cola (KO), Marriott International (MAR), Masco (MAS), S&P Global (SPGI), Trimble (TRMB), Welltower (WELL), Williams Companies (WMB), Xylem (XYL), Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH)
Wednesday
• January Employment Situation Summary: This monthly blockbuster release from the Labor Department gives a comprehensive look at employment, wages, and hours worked in the previous month.
• January Treasury Statement: This summarizes the U.S. federal government budget by tracking government revenues and expenditures.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings: Ameren (AEE), Albemarle (ALB), AppLovin (APP), Cisco (CSCO), Equinix (EQIX), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), Generac Holdings (GNRC), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Humana (HUM), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Kraft Heinz (KHC), McDonald's (MCD), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Motorola Solutions (MSI), NiSource (NI), Paycom Software (PAYC), Rollins (ROL), Smurfit WestRock (SW), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB)
Thursday
• January Existing Home Sales: Most home transactions in any given month tend to come from the existing market, and as a result set the tone for the broader housing market.
• Fedspeak: Logan will give opening and closing remarks at an event hosted by the Dallas Fed. Fed Governor Stephen Miran will take part in a moderated conversation at the Dallas Fed.
• Earnings: Airbnb (ABNB), American Electric Power (AEP), Applied Materials (AMAT), Arista Networks (ANET), Baxter International (BAX), CBRE Group (CBRE), Coinbase (COIN), DexCom (DXCM), Eversource Energy (ES), Entergy (ETR), Exelon (EXC), Expedia Group (EXPE), Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Ingersoll Rand (IR), Iron Mountain (IRM), Kimco Realty (KIM), PG&E (PCG), Public Storage (PSA), Tyler Technologies (TYL), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), West Pharmaceutical Services (WST), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Zebra Technologies (ZBRA), Zoetis (ZTS)
Friday
• January Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers.
• Earnings: Moderna (MRNA)
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