Editor’s note: This is the first of a three-part series on building investing discipline — using crypto as the test case.
• Today: How to keep your emotions in check when volatility spikes.
• Wednesday: How to read performance charts without falling into traps.
• Friday: How other coins compare to Bitcoin.
Whatever the asset class, major market drops can trigger a survival instinct to “hit eject” before it gets worse. But depending on your time horizon, acting on those impulses can turn a temporary downturn into a permanent loss.
The stronger approach is to stick to your gameplan, accepting that market swings are a regular part of the deal and prioritizing your financial goals and timeline. If you’re investing for your future, this often means staying the course, choosing patience over a panicked or impulsive sale.
Take the S&P 500. According to a J.P. Morgan analysis of the stock index’s 10 best and worst performing days over two decades, an investor attempting to dodge the worst days would have missed out on most of the best, too. Staying invested through the swings would have nearly doubled their average annualized return.
Plus, when you sell during a downturn, you're not just locking in a loss, you're betting that you'll know exactly when to get back in.
What history actually shows
The same principles can be applied to crypto. Before Bitcoin’s latest plunge – it’s down more than 40% over the past six months – the OG coin had experienced four major drawdowns (of 50% or more) since 2014. Each time, the price eventually recovered and reached new highs, though in some cases, it took as long as three years.
Now, past performance isn’t predictive of future returns, and owning a highly speculative asset like Bitcoin involves significant risk.
But if your portfolio is down and your crypto soul is in need of soothing, this data underscores a critical point: Choppy waters are the natural habitat of this asset class. If you’re playing the long game, you’ll want a strategy that can survive this volatility without forcing you into an emotional exit.
Dollar-cost averaging: a systematic alternative to timing the market
There’s no way to know when a market has hit bottom. One way to avoid the guesswork is by practicing dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Rather than trying to time an investment based on price, DCA means making a fixed investment on a regular schedule. If that’s $50 every two weeks, your $50 buys more when prices are low and less when prices are high. The goal is that over time, your costs will average out, reducing the potential downside of any single decision.
Now, DCA doesn't guarantee higher returns, and in steadily rising markets, you could fare better making one lump-sum investment. But adopting a steady, repeatable process can reduce the stress of investing and build disciplined habits.
The bottom line: If your position in crypto or another single asset class becomes an uncomfortably big chunk of your total net worth, reconfiguring your allocations could be a prudent move.
But whether you buy, sell, or hold, don’t underestimate the power of time and perspective. You won’t ever be able to perfectly pick the peaks and valleys, but by zooming out, you can focus on the growth that happens between the extremes.
Stay tuned for Part 2 of our series: How to read a crypto chart without it taking over your week.
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