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How to Calculate a Dividend Payout Ratio

The dividend payout ratio is the ratio of total dividends paid to shareholders relative to the net income of the company. Investors can use the dividend payout formula to gauge what fraction of a company’s net income they could receive in the form of dividends.

While a company will want to retain some earnings to reinvest or pay down debt, the extra profit may be paid out to investors as dividends. As such, investors will want a way to calculate what they can expect if they’re a shareholder.

Understanding Dividends and How They Work

Before calculating potential dividends, investors will want to familiarize themselves with what dividends are, exactly.

A dividend is when a company periodically gives its shareholders a payment in cash, or additional shares of stock, or property. The size of that dividend payment depends on the company’s dividend yield and how many shares you own.

Many investors look to buy stock in companies that pay them as a way to generate regular income in addition to stock price appreciation. A dividend investing strategy is one way many investors look to make money from stocks and build wealth.

Investors can take their dividend payments in cash or reinvest them into their stock holdings. Not all companies pay dividends, and those that do tend to be large, established companies with predictable profits — blue chip stocks, for example. If an investor owns a stock or fund that pays dividends, they can expect a regular payment from that company — typically, each quarter. Some companies may pay dividends more frequently.

Pros and Cons of Investing in Dividend Stocks

Since dividend income can help augment investing returns, investing in dividend stocks — or, stocks that tend to pay higher than average dividends — is popular among some investors. But engaging in a strategy of purchasing dividend stocks has its pros and cons.

As for the advantages, the most obvious is that investors will receive dividend payments and see bigger potential returns from their holdings. Those dividends, in addition to stock appreciation, allow for two potential ways to generate returns. Another benefit is that investors can set up their dividends to automatically reinvest, meaning that they’re holdings grow with no extra effort.

Potential drawbacks, however, are that dividend stocks may generate a higher tax burden, depending on the specific stocks. You’ll need to look more closely at whether your dividends are “ordinary” or “qualified,” and dig a little deeper into qualified dividend tax rates to get a better idea of what you might end up owing.

Also, stocks that pay higher dividends often don’t see as much appreciation as some other growth stocks — but investors do reap the benefit of a steady, if small, payout.

What Is the Dividend Payout Ratio?

The dividend payout ratio expresses the percentage of income that a company pays to shareholders. Ratios vary widely by company. Some may pay out all of their net income, while others may hang on to a portion to reinvest in the company or pay off debt.

Generally speaking, a healthy range for payout ratios is from 35% to 55%. There are certain circumstances in which a lower ratio might make sense for a company. For example, a relatively young company that plans to expand might reinvest a larger portion of its profits into growth.

How to Calculate a Dividend Payout

Calculating your potential dividend payout is fairly simple: It requires that you know the dividend payout ratio formula, and simply plug in some numbers.

Dividend Payout Ratio Formula

The simplest dividend payout ratio formula divides the total annual dividends by net income, or earnings, from the same period. The equation looks like this:

Dividend payout ratio = Dividends paid / Net income

Again, figuring out the payout ratio is only a matter of doing some plug-and-play with the appropriate figures.

Dividend Payout Ratio Calculation Example

Here’s an example of how to calculate dividend payout using the dividend payout ratio.

If a company reported net income of $120 million and paid out a total of $50 million in dividends, the dividend payout ratio would be $50 million/$120 million, or about 42%. That means that the company retained about 58% of its profits.

Or, to plug those numbers into the formula, it would look like this:

~42% = 50,000,000 / 120,000,000

An alternative dividend payout ratio calculation uses dividends per share and earnings per share as variables:

Dividend payout ratio = Dividends per share / Earnings per share

A third formula uses retention ratio, which tells us how much of a company’s profits are being retained for reinvestment, rather than paid out in dividends.

Dividend payout ratio = 1 – Retention ratio

You can determine the retention ratio with the following formula:

Retention ratio = (Net income – Dividends paid) / Net income

You can find figures including total dividends paid and a company’s net income in a company’s financial statements, such as its earnings report or annual report.

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Why Does the Dividend Payout Ratio Matter?

Dividend stocks often play an important part in individuals’ investment strategies. As noted, dividends are one of the primary ways stock holdings earn money — investors also earn money on stocks by selling holdings that have appreciated in value.

Investors may choose to automatically reinvest the dividends they do earn, increasing the size of their holdings, and therefore, potentially earning even more dividends over time. This can often be done through a dividend reinvestment plan.

But it’s important to be able to know what the ratio results are telling you so that you can make wise decisions related to your investments.

Interpreting Dividend Payout Ratio Results

Learning how to calculate dividend payout and use the payout ratio is one thing. But what does it all mean? What is it telling you?

On a basic level, the dividend payout ratio can help investors gain insight into the health of dividend stocks. For instance, a higher ratio indicates that a company is paying out more of its profits in dividends, and this may be a sign that it is established, or not necessarily looking to expand in the near future. It may also indicate that a company isn’t investing enough in its own growth.

Lower ratios may mean a company is retaining a higher percentage of its earnings to expand its operations or fund research and development, for example. These stocks may still be a good bet, since these activities may help drive up share price or lead to large dividends in the future.

Dividend Sustainability

Paying attention to trends in dividend payout ratios can help you determine a dividend’s sustainability — or, the likelihood a company will continue to pay dividends of a certain size in the future. For example, a steadily rising dividend payout ratio could indicate that a company is on a stable path, while a sudden jump to a higher payout ratio might be harder for a company to sustain.

That’s knowledge that may be put to use when trying to manage your portfolio.

It’s also worth noting that there can be dividend payout ratios that are more than 100%. That means the company is paying out more money in dividends than it is earning — something no company can do for very long. While they may ride out a bad year, they may also have to lower their dividends, or suspend them entirely, if this trend continues.

Dividend Payout Ratio vs Dividend Yield

The dividend yield is the ratio of a stock’s dividend per share to the stock’s current price:

Dividend yield = Annual dividend per share/Current stock price

As an example, if a stock costs $100 and pays an annual dividend of $7 the dividend yield will be $7/$100, or 7%.

Like the dividend payout ratio, dividend yield is a metric investors can use when comparing stocks to understand the health of a company. For example, high dividend yields might be a result of a quickly dropping share price, which may indicate that a stock is in trouble. Dividend yield can also help investors understand whether a stock is valued well and whether it will meet the investor’s income needs or fit with their overall investing strategy.

Dividend Payout Ratio vs Retention Ratio

As discussed, the retention ratio tells investors how much of a company’s profits are being retained to be reinvested, rather than used to pay investors dividends. The formula looks like this:

Retention ratio = (Net income – Dividends paid) / Net income

If we use the same numbers from our initial example, the formula would look like this:

~58% = (120,000,000 – 50,000,000) / 120,000,000

This can be used much in the same way that the dividend payout ratio can, as it calculates the other side of the equation — how much a company is retaining, rather than paying out. In other words, if you can find one, you can easily find the other.

The Takeaway

The dividend payout ratio is a calculation that tells investors how much a company pays out in dividends to investors. Since dividend stocks can be an important component of an investment strategy, this can be useful information to investors who are trying to fine-tune their strategies, especially since different types of dividends have different tax implications.

In addition, the dividend payout ratio can help investors evaluate stocks that pay dividends, often providing clues about company health and long-term sustainability. It’s different from other ratios, like the retention ratio or the dividend yield.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an Active Invest account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

For a limited time, opening and funding an account gives you the opportunity to win up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

FAQ

How do you calculate your dividend payment?

To calculate your exact dividend payment, you’d need to know how many shares you own, a company’s net income, and the number of total outstanding shares. From there, you can calculate dividend per share, and multiply it by the number of shares you own.

Are dividends taxed?

Yes, dividends are taxed, as the IRS considers them a form of income. There may be some slight differences in how they’re taxed, but even if you reinvest your dividend income back into a company, you’ll still generate a tax liability by receiving dividend income.


SoFi Invest®
The information provided is not meant to provide investment or financial advice. Also, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile. SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance. Advisory services offered through SoFi Wealth, LLC. SoFi Securities, LLC, member FINRA / SIPC . SoFi Invest refers to the three investment and trading platforms operated by Social Finance, Inc. and its affiliates (described below). Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of the platforms below.
1) Automated Investing—The Automated Investing platform is owned by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor (“Sofi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC, an affiliated SEC registered broker dealer and member FINRA/SIPC, (“Sofi Securities).
2) Active Investing—The Active Investing platform is owned by SoFi Securities LLC. Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
3) Cryptocurrency is offered by SoFi Digital Assets, LLC, a FinCEN registered Money Service Business.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above, including state licensure of Sofi Digital Assets, LLC, please visit www.sofi.com/legal. Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform. Information related to lending products contained herein should not be construed as an offer or prequalification for any loan product offered by SoFi Bank, N.A.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.
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What Is Payment for Order Flow?

Payment for order flow (PFOF) refers to the practice of retail brokerages routing customer orders to market makers, usually for a small fee that’s less than a penny. Market makers, who are required to deliver the “best execution,” carry out the retail orders, profiting off small differences between what shares were bought and sold for.

Retail brokerages, in turn, use the rebates they collect to offer customers lower — or often zero — trading fees.

How Does Payment for Order Flow Work?

Here’s a step-by-step guide to how payment for order flow generally works:

1.    A retail investor puts in a buy or sell order through their brokerage account.

2.    The brokerage firm routes the order to a market maker.

3.    The broker collects a small fee or rebate – the “payment” for sending the “order flow” or PFOF.

4.    The market maker is required to find the “best execution,” which could mean the best price, swiftest trade, or the trade most likely to get the order done.

The rebates allow companies offering brokerage accounts to subsidize rock-bottom or zero-commission trading for customers. It also frees them to outsource the task of executing millions of customer orders.

Usually the amount in rebates a brokerage receives is tied to the size of the trades. Smaller orders are less likely to have an impact on market prices, motivating market makers to pay more for them. The type of stocks traded can also affect how much they get paid for in rebates, since volatile stocks have wider spreads and market makers profit more from them.

Why Is PFOF Controversial?

While widespread and legal, payment for order flow is controversial. Critics argue it poses a conflict of interest by incentivizing brokerages to boost their revenue rather than ensure good prices for customers. The requirement of best execution by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) doesn’t necessarily mean “best price” since price, speed, and liquidity are among several factors considered when it comes to execution quality.

Defenders of PFOF say that mom-and-pop investors benefit from the practice through enhanced liquidity, the ability to get trades done. They also point to data that shows customers enjoy better prices than they would have on public stock exchanges. But perhaps the biggest gain for retail investors is the commission-free trading that is now a mainstay in today’s equity markets.

What Are Market Makers?

Market makers — also known as electronic trading firms — are regulated firms that buy and sell shares all day, collecting profits from bid-ask spreads. The market maker profits can execute trades from their own inventory or in the market. Offering quotes and bidding on both sides of the market helps keep it liquid.

Market makers that execute retail orders are also called wholesalers. The money that market makers collect from PFOF is usually fractions of a cent on each share, but these are reliable profits that can turn into hundreds of millions in revenue a year. In recent years, a number of firms have exited or sold their wholesaling businesses, leaving just a handful of electronic trading firms that handle PFOF.

In addition to profits from stock spreads, the orders from brokerage firms give market makers valuable market data on retail trading flows. When it comes to using institutional or retail investors, market makers also prefer trading with the latter because larger market players like hedge funds can trade many shares at once. This can cause big shifts in prices, hitting market makers with losses.

PFOF in the Options Market

Payment for order flow is more prevalent in options trading because of the many different types of contracts. Options give purchasers the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset. Every stock option has a strike price, the price at which the investor can exercise the contract, and an expiration date — the day on which the contract expires.

Market makers play a key role in providing liquidity for the thousands of contracts with varying strike prices and expiration dates.

The options market also tends to be more lucrative for the brokerage firm and market maker. That’s because options contracts trading is more illiquid, resulting in chunkier spreads for the market maker.

Criticism of Payment for Order Flow

Payment for order flow was pioneered in the 1980s by Bernie Madoff, who later pleaded guilty to running the largest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history.

Critics argue retail investors get a poor deal from PFOF. Since market makers and brokerages are only required to provide “best execution” and not necessarily the “best possible price,” firms can make trades that are profitable for themselves but not necessarily in the best interest of individual investors.

In 2016, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) subpoenaed market making firms for information related to the execution of retail stock trades. The DOJ was looking into whether the varying speeds at which different data feeds deliver market prices made it look like retail clients were getting favorable prices, while market makers knew they actually weren’t from faster data feeds. A trading firm settled with regulators in 2017.

Defenders of Payment For Order Flow

Proponents of payment for order flow argue that both sides — the retail investors and the market makers — win from the arrangement. Here are the ways retail customers can benefit from PFOF, according to its defenders:

1.    No Commissions: In recent years, the price of trading has collapsed and is now zero at the biggest online brokerage firms. While competition has been a big part of that shift, PFOF has helped bring about low trading transactions for mom-and-pop investors. For context, online trading commissions were $40 or so a trade in the 1990s.

2.    Liquidity: Particularly in the options market, where there can be thousands of contracts with different strike prices and expiration dates, market makers help provide trading liquidity, ensuring that retail customer orders get executed in a timely manner.

3.    Price Improvement: Brokerages can provide “price improvement,” when customers get a better price than they would on a public stock exchange.

4.    Transparency: SEC Rules 605 and 606 require brokers to disclose statistics on execution quality for customer orders and general overview of routing practices. Customers are also allowed to request information on which venues their orders were sent to. Starting in 2020, brokers also had to give figures on net payments received each month from market makers.

The Takeaway

Payment for order flow (PFOF) refers to the practice of retail brokerages routing customer orders to market makers, usually for a small fee. Payment for order flow is controversial, but it’s become a key part of financial markets when it comes to stock and options trading today.

Industry observers have said that for retail investors weighing the trade-off between low trading costs versus good prices, it may come down to the size of their trades. For smaller trades, the benefits of saving money on commissions may surpass any gains from price improvement. For investors trading hundreds or thousands of shares at a time, getting better prices may be a bigger priority.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an Active Invest account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

For a limited time, opening and funding an account gives you the opportunity to win up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.


SoFi Invest®
The information provided is not meant to provide investment or financial advice. Also, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile. SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance. Advisory services offered through SoFi Wealth, LLC. SoFi Securities, LLC, member FINRA / SIPC . SoFi Invest refers to the three investment and trading platforms operated by Social Finance, Inc. and its affiliates (described below). Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of the platforms below.
1) Automated Investing—The Automated Investing platform is owned by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor (“Sofi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC, an affiliated SEC registered broker dealer and member FINRA/SIPC, (“Sofi Securities).
2) Active Investing—The Active Investing platform is owned by SoFi Securities LLC. Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
3) Cryptocurrency is offered by SoFi Digital Assets, LLC, a FinCEN registered Money Service Business.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above, including state licensure of Sofi Digital Assets, LLC, please visit www.sofi.com/legal. Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform. Information related to lending products contained herein should not be construed as an offer or prequalification for any loan product offered by SoFi Bank, N.A.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $10 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.
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How Dark Pools Operate – and Why They Exist

How Dark Pools Operate – and Why They Exist

Dark pools, sometimes referred to as “dark pools of liquidity,” are a type of alternative trading system used by large institutional investors to which the investing public does not have access.

Living up to their “dark” name, these pools have no public transparency by design. Institutional investors, such as mutual fund managers, pension funds, and hedge funds, use dark pool trading to buy and sell large blocks of securities without moving the larger markets until the trade is executed.

Who Runs Dark Pools?

Investment banks typically run dark pools, but some other institutions run them as well, including large broker-dealers, agency brokers, and even some public exchanges. Some trading platforms, where individual investors buy and sell stocks, also use dark pools to execute trades using a payment for order flow.

Recommended: What Is a Market Maker?

The role of dark pools in the market varies over time. Consider this: At the start of 2021, it comprised half of trades in a single day, but a few months later that share had fallen to 12.91% of U.S. equity volume.

Because trades in a dark pool aren’t reflected in the prices on a public exchange, participants in a dark pool trade based on the prices offered on a public exchange, using the midpoint of the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO) to set prices.

Why Institutions Use Dark Pools

Large, institutional investors such as hedge funds, may turn to dark pools to get a better price when buying or selling large blocks of a single stock. That’s because of the way that large trades impact the public markets.

If a mutual fund manager, for example, wants to sell a million shares of a given stock because it’s underperforming or no longer fits their strategy, they’d need to use a floor trader to unload the position on a public exchange. Selling all those shares could impact the price they get, driving down the VWAP (volume weighted average price) of the total sale.

To avoid driving down the price, the manager might spread out the trade over several days. But if other traders identify the institution or the fund that’s selling they could also sell, potentially driving down the price even further.

The same risk exists when buying large blocks of a given security on a public market, as the purchase itself can attract attention and drive up the price.

Recommended: How to Identify an Underperforming Stock

New Risks

The risks of attracting attention from other traders have intensified with the rise of algorithmic trading and high-frequency trading (HFT). These strategies employ sophisticated computer programs to make big trades just ahead of other investors. HFT programs flood public exchanges with buy or sell orders to front-run giant block trades, and force the fund manager in the above example to get a worse price on their trade.

But with a dark trade, that institutional investor can sell a million shares of a stock without the public finding out because dark pool participants don’t disclose their trades to participants on the exchange. The details of trades within a dark pool only show up after a delay on the consolidated tape – the electronic system that collates price and volume data from major securities exchanges.

There are other advantages for an institutional trader. Because the buyers and sellers in a dark pool are other institutional traders, a fund manager looking to sell a million shares of a given stock is more likely to find buyers who are in the market for a million shares or more. On a public exchange, that million-share sale will likely need to be broken up into dozens, if not hundreds of trades.

Recommended: Institutional Investors vs. Retail Investors

Criticism of Dark Pools

As dark pools have grown in prominence, they’ve attracted criticism from many directions, and scrutiny from regulators. For instance, the lack of transparency in dark pools and the exclusivity of their clientele makes some investors uneasy. Some even believe that the pools give large investors an unfair advantage over smaller investors, who buy and sell almost exclusively on public exchanges.

The Takeaway

As discussed, dark pools are sometimes referred to as “dark pools of liquidity,” and are a type of alternative trading system used by large institutional investors to which the investing public does not have access. They’re typically run and utilized by large investment banks.

Given the nature of dark pools, they attracted criticism from some due to the lack of transparency, and the exclusivity of their clientele. While the typical investor may not interact with a dark pool, knowing the ins and outs may be helpful background knowledge.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an Active Invest account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

For a limited time, opening and funding an account gives you the opportunity to win up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.


Photo credit: iStock/DNY59

SoFi Invest®
The information provided is not meant to provide investment or financial advice. Also, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile. SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance. Advisory services offered through SoFi Wealth, LLC. SoFi Securities, LLC, member FINRA / SIPC . SoFi Invest refers to the three investment and trading platforms operated by Social Finance, Inc. and its affiliates (described below). Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of the platforms below.
1) Automated Investing—The Automated Investing platform is owned by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor (“Sofi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC, an affiliated SEC registered broker dealer and member FINRA/SIPC, (“Sofi Securities).
2) Active Investing—The Active Investing platform is owned by SoFi Securities LLC. Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
3) Cryptocurrency is offered by SoFi Digital Assets, LLC, a FinCEN registered Money Service Business.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above, including state licensure of Sofi Digital Assets, LLC, please visit www.sofi.com/legal. Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform. Information related to lending products contained herein should not be construed as an offer or prequalification for any loan product offered by SoFi Bank, N.A.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $10 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.
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How a Minsky Moment Happens, and How to Spot One

How a Minsky Moment Happens, and How to Spot One

A Minsky moment is an economic term describing a period of optimism that ends with a market crash. It describes the point at which a market boom marked by speculative trading and increasing debt suddenly gives way to a freefall marked by plunging market sentiment, asset values, and economic activity.

It is named for American economist Hyman Minsky, who studied the characteristics of financial crises, and whose “financial instability hypothesis” offered reasons why financial markets were and would be inherently unstable. Minsky died in 1996, and the phrase “Minsky moment” was coined in 1998, when a portfolio manager used it in reference to the 1997 Asian debt crisis, which was widely blamed on currency speculators.

How Does a Minsky Moment Happen?

A Minsky Moment refers to something sudden, though the economist maintained that it doesn’t arise all at once. He identified three stages by which a market builds up to the convoluted speculation and complete instability that finally undoes even the longest bull markets.

1.    The Hedge Phase: This often comes in the wake of a market collapse. In this phase, both banks and borrowers are cautious. Banks only lend to borrowers with income to cover the principal of the loan and interest payments; and borrowers are wary of taking on more debt than they’re highly confident they can repay entirely.

2.    Speculative Borrowing Phase: As economic conditions improve, debts are repaid and confidence rises. Banks become willing to make loans to borrowers who can afford to pay the interest but not the principal, but the bank and the borrower don’t worry because most of these loans are for assets — stocks, real estate and so on — that are appreciating in value. The banks are also betting that interest rates won’t go up.

3.    The Ponzi Phase: The third and final phase leading up to the Minsky Moment is named for the iconic fraudster Charles Ponzi. Ponzi invented a scheme that offers fake investments, and gathers new investors based on the returns earned by the original investors. It pays the first investors from new investments, and so on, until it collapses.

In Minsky’s theory, the Ponzi phase arrives when confident borrowers and lenders graduate to a new level of risk-taking and speculation: when lenders lend to borrowers without enough cash flow to cover the principal payments or the interest payments. They do so in the expectation that the underlying assets will continue rising, allowing the borrower to sell those assets at prices high enough for them to cover their debt.

The longer the growth swing in the market, the more debt investors take on. While those investments are still rising and generating returns, the borrowers can use that money to pay off the debt and the interest payments. But assets eventually go down in value, in any market, even just for a while.

At this point, the investors are relying on the growth of those assets to repay the loans they’ve taken out to buy them. Any interruption of that growth means they can’t repay the debt they’ve taken on. That’s when the lenders call in the loans. And the borrowers have to sell their assets — at any price — to repay the lenders. When there are thousands of investors doing this at the same time, the values of the underlying assets plummet. This is the Minsky moment.

In addition to plunging prices, a Minsky moment is usually accompanied by a steep drop in market-wide liquidity. That lack of liquidity can stop the daily functioning of the economy, and it’s the part of these crises that causes central banks to intervene as a lender of last resort.

The Minsky Moment and the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis

The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis offered a very clear and relatable example of this kind of escalation, as many people borrowed money to buy homes they couldn’t afford. They did so believing that the property value would go up fast enough that they could flip the house to cover their borrowing costs, while earning a tidy profit.

Minsky theorized that a lengthy economic growth cycle tends to generate an outsized increase in market speculation. But that accelerating speculation is often funded by large amounts of debt on the part of both large and small investors. And that tends to increase market instability and the likelihood of sudden, catastrophic collapse.

Accordingly, the 2008 financial crisis was marked by a sudden drop and downward momentum fueled investors selling assets to cover short-term debts. Some of those included margin calls, which are when an investor is forced to sell securities to cover the collateral needed to borrow money from a brokerage.

How to Predict the Next Minsky Moment

While Hyman Minsky provided a framework of the three escalating phases that lead up to a market collapse, there’s no way to tell how long each phase will last. Using its framework can help investors understand where they are in a broader economic cycle, but people will disagree on how much debt is too much, or the point at which speculation threatens the stability of the markets.

Most recently, market-watchers keep an eye on the high rates of corporate debt in trying to detect a coming Minsky moment. And even the International Monetary Fund has sounded warning bells over high debt levels, alongside slowing growth around the planet.

But other authorities have warned of other Minsky moments over the years that haven’t necessarily happened. It calls to mind the old joke: “The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions.”

The Takeaway

A Minsky moment is named after an economist who described the way that markets overheat and collapse. And the concept can help investors understand where they are in a market cycle. It’s a somewhat high-level concept, but it can be useful to know what the term references.

There’s also a framework that may help investors predict, or at least keep an eye out for, the next Minsky moment. That said, nobody knows what the future holds, so that’s important to keep in mind.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an Active Invest account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

For a limited time, opening and funding an account gives you the opportunity to win up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.


Photo credit: iStock/Rawpixel

SoFi Invest®
The information provided is not meant to provide investment or financial advice. Also, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile. SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance. Advisory services offered through SoFi Wealth, LLC. SoFi Securities, LLC, member FINRA / SIPC . SoFi Invest refers to the three investment and trading platforms operated by Social Finance, Inc. and its affiliates (described below). Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of the platforms below.
1) Automated Investing—The Automated Investing platform is owned by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor (“Sofi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC, an affiliated SEC registered broker dealer and member FINRA/SIPC, (“Sofi Securities).
2) Active Investing—The Active Investing platform is owned by SoFi Securities LLC. Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
3) Cryptocurrency is offered by SoFi Digital Assets, LLC, a FinCEN registered Money Service Business.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above, including state licensure of Sofi Digital Assets, LLC, please visit www.sofi.com/legal. Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform. Information related to lending products contained herein should not be construed as an offer or prequalification for any loan product offered by SoFi Bank, N.A.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $10 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.
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