InvestHH Archives

Sep

2024

Calculating an Investment’s Payback Period

By Laurel Tincher | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off

Key Points

• The payback period is the estimated amount of time it will take to recoup an investment or to break even. Generally, the longer the payback period, the higher the risk.

• To calculate the payback period using the averaging method, you divide the Initial Investment by Yearly Cash Flow.

• Equity firms may calculate the payback period for potential investment in startups and other companies to ensure capital recoupment and understand risk-reward ratios.

• Downsides of using the payback period include that it does take into account the time value of money or other ways an investment might bring value.

What Is a Payback Period?

The payback period is the amount of time it will take to recoup the initial cost of an investment, or to reach its break-even point. Considering the ups and down of various market factors — e.g. the crypto winter or the impact of higher-than-usual interest rates — being able to gauge the payback period is one of the most important calculations for investors when planning investments and returns.

The payback period can help investors decide between different investments that may have a lot of similarities, as they’ll often want to choose the one that will pay back in the shortest amount of time. The longer money remains locked up in an investment without earning a return, the more time an investor must wait until they can access that cash again, and the more risk there is of losing the initial investment capital.

Using the Payback Period

The payback period can apply to personal investments such as solar panels or property maintenance, or investments in equipment or other assets that a company might consider acquiring. Often an investment that requires a large amount of capital upfront generates steady or increasing returns over time, although there is also some risk that the returns won’t turn out as hoped or predicted.

Calculating payback periods is especially important for startup companies with limited capital that want to be sure they can recoup their money without going out of business. Companies also use the payback period to select between different investment opportunities or to help them understand the risk-reward ratio of a given investment.

Knowing the payback period is helpful if there’s a risk of a project ending in the future. For example, if a company might lose a lease or a contract, the sooner they can recoup any investments they’re making into their business the less risk they have of losing that capital.

Any particular project or investment can have a short or long payback period. A short period means the investment breaks even or gets paid back in a relatively short amount of time by the cash flow generated by the investment, whereas a long period means the investment takes longer to recoup. How investors understand that period will depend on their time horizon.

How to Calculate the Payback Period

Prior to calculating the payback period of a particular investment, one might consider what their maximum payback period would be to move forward with the investment. This will help give them some parameters to work with when making investment decisions. If the calculated payback period is less than the desired period, this may be a safer investment.

In simple terms, the payback period is calculated by dividing the cost of the investment by the annual cash flow until the cumulative cash flow is positive, which is the payback year. Payback period is generally expressed in years.

There are two easy basis payback period formulas:

Payback Period Formula (Averaging Method)

Payback Period = Initial Investment / Yearly Cash Flow

Using the averaging method, the initial amount of the investment is divided by annualized cash flows an investment is projected to generate. This works well if cash flows are predictable or expected to be consistent over time, but otherwise this method may not be very accurate.

Example of Payback Period

If a company makes an investment of $1,000,000 in new equipment which is expected to generate $250,000 in revenue per year, the calculation would be:

$1,000,000 / $250,000 = 4-year payback period

If they have another option to invest $1,000,000 into equipment which they expect to generate $280,000 in revenue per year, the calculation would be:

$1,000,000 / $280,000 = 3.57-year payback period

Since the second option has a shorter payback period, this may be a better choice for the company.

Payback Formula (Subtraction Method)

Payback Period = the last year with negative cash flow + (Amount of cash flow at the end of that year / Cash flow during the year after that year)

Using the subtraction method, one starts by subtracting individual annual cash flows from the initial investment amount, and then does the division. This method works better if cash flows vary from year to year.

Example of Payback Period Using the Subtraction Method

A company is considering making a $550,000 investment in new equipment. The expected cash flows are as follows:

Year 1 = $75,000
Year 2 = $140,000
Year 3 = $200,000
Year 4 = $110,000
Year 5 = $60,000

Calculation:

Year 0 : -$550,000
Year 1 : -$550,000 + $75,000 = -$475,000
Year 2 : -$475,000 + $140,000 = -$335,000
Year 3 : -$335,000 + $200,000 = -$135,000
Year 4 : -$135,000 + $110,000 = -$25,000
Year 5 : -$25,000 + $60,000 = $35,000

Year 4 is the last year with negative cash flow, so the payback period equation is:

4 + ($25,000 / $60,000) = 4.42

So the payback period is 4.42 years.

Other factors

Investors might also choose to add depreciation and taxes into the equation, to account for any lost value of an investment over time.

Benefits of Using the Payback Period

The payback period is simple to understand and calculate. It can provide individuals and companies with valuable insights into potential investments, and help them decide which option provides the best return on investment (ROI). It also helps with assessing the risk of different investments. Advantages include:

• Easily understandable

• Simple to calculate

• Tool for risk assessment

• Helps with comparing and choosing investment options

• Provides insights for financial planning

• Other calculations, such as net present value and internal rate of return, don’t

• look at the amount of time it takes to recoup an investment

Downsides of Using the Payback Period

Although the payback period can be a useful calculation for individuals and companies considering and comparing investments, it has some downsides. The calculation only looks at the time period up until the initial investment will be recouped. It doesn’t consider the earnings the investment will bring in after that, which may either be higher or lower, and could determine whether it makes sense as a long-term investment.

If earnings will continue to increase, a longer payback period might be acceptable. If earnings might decrease after a certain number of years, the investment may not be a good idea even if it breaks even quickly. On the other hand, an investment with a short lifespan could need replacement shortly after its payback period, making it a potentially poor investment.

The payback period doesn’t take into consideration other ways an investment might bring value, such as partnerships or brand awareness. This can result in investors overlooking the long-term benefits of the investment since they’re too focused on short-term ROI.

The payback period equation also doesn’t take into account the effects an investment might have on the rest of the company’s operations. For instance, new equipment might require a significant amount of expensive power, or might not be able to run as often as it would need to in order to reach the payback goal.

Another limitation of the payback period is that it doesn’t take the time value of money (TVM) into account. The time value of money is the idea that cash will be worth more in the future than it is worth today, due to the amount of interest that it can generate. Not only does this apply to the initial capital put into an investment, but it’s also important because as an investment generates returns, that cash can then be reinvested into something else that earns interest or income. This is another reason that a shorter payback period makes for a more attractive investment.

The Takeaway

You can use the payback period in your own life when making large purchase decisions and consider their opportunity cost. Understanding the way that companies calculate their payback period is also helpful to determine their financial viability and whether it makes sense for you to invest in them as part of your portfolio.

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You may also be interested in:

Rate of Return (RoR): Formula and Calculation Examples

NPV Formula: How to Calculate Net Present Value

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Explained

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Jul

2024

What Is Fibonacci Retracement in Crypto Trading

What Is Fibonacci Retracement in Trading?

By Brian Nibley | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Fibonacci retracement is a type of technical indicator that traders use to determine the support and resistance levels for a stock price.

The well-known Fibonacci sequence of numbers, where each number is the sum of the two previous numbers, is important to how this technical analysis tool works owing to the relationship between the numbers in the series.

These ratios, expressed as a percentage, capture how much a stock price has retraced with its recent movement. The most important Fibonacci retracement levels are: 23.6% 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, 78.6%, and they are applied as horizontal lines on a stock chart.

Traders can use these retracement levels to mark high and low points that may offer signals that a price is going to stall out or reverse.

What Are Fibonacci Retracement Levels?

Fibonacci retracement levels are based on the Fibonacci series where each number equals the sum of the two previous numbers. The most basic series is: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, etc.

The relationship between these numbers has created the retracement levels commonly used by traders: 23.6% 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, 78.6%.

For example, each number is approximately 1.618 times greater than the preceding one. As a result, some analysts refer to 61.8% as “the golden ratio,” because it roughly equals the division of one number in the series by the number that follows it. For example: 13/21 = 0.6190, and 21/34 = 0.6176, and 34/55 = 0.6181

In fact, there are similar relationships to be found between other numbers in the series, and these have become the ratios used by technical traders to determine retracement levels in stock prices. For example, dividing a number in the series by the number three places to its right roughly equals 23.6%.

Note that 50% is somewhat of an exception to the rule: It’s not mathematically part of the Fibonacci-derived number set, but traders have nonetheless found it useful when gauging support and resistance levels.

Who Created Fibonacci Numbers?

The Fibonacci sequence is based on the work of a 13th-century mathematician Leonardo Pisano Bigollo, nicknamed Fibonacci. While Fibonacci was not the first to identify this series, he transformed mathematics in the West thanks to his introduction of the Hindu-Arabic system of numbers, a place-value system.

The Hindu-Arabic system, which we use today, replaced Roman numerals and the complex calculations that required.

In 1202, Fibonacci published Liber Abaci (“Book of Calculations”) to introduce Hindu-Arabic numerals. The Fibonacci series was included here, but the observation of this pattern had been identified and worked with for hundreds of years before, in India. Over time, its pattern has been observed in everything from the spiral of seeds in sunflowers to spirals in the double helix of DNA.

Because the Fibonacci sequence occurs frequently in various natural and mathematical contexts, it has been adopted for a number of uses, including as a technical analysis tool for stock traders. That said, the reason for the common occurrence of these numbers in contexts or applications that are unrelated, is not well understood.

How Does Fibonacci Retracement Work

Fibonacci retracement levels are not based on an exact formula that gets applied to the stock price movements. Rather, traders identify two static price points for analysis, e.g., a high and a low, and apply the retracement levels from the Fibonacci sequence to determine support and resistance levels.

If a stock price movement retraces a prior move, ending on a point that is represented by a Fibonacci number, it could indicate that a reversal is in store.

The use of Fibonacci ratios as a technical indicator is somewhat subjective, however, since the underlying numbers are a part of a mathematical pattern. They aren’t inherently related to stock prices or market movements.

For example, if a stock price rises to $20 from $15, a trader might set the retracement levels at 23.6% and 50%. Those would be, respectively: $18.82 ($20 – ($5 x 0.236) = $18.82) and $17.50 ($20 – ($5 x 0.50) = $17.50).

If the stock price retraced from $20 down to one of those levels, it could signal a reversal. But Fibonacci retracements can also be used to gauge the strength of an uptrend, by noting the support and resistance in relation to the retracement levels.

Support and Resistance

Support is the price level that acts as a floor, preventing the price from being pushed lower, while resistance is the high level that the price reaches over time. Analysts often illustrate these as horizontal lines on a graph.

A support or resistance level can also represent a pivot point, or point from which prices have a tendency to reverse if they bounce (in the case of support) or retreat (in the case of resistance) from that level.

Learn more: Support and Resistance: What Is It? How to Use It for Trading

What Does a Fibonacci Retracement Do?

Markets don’t go straight up or down. There are pauses and corrections along the way. Traders can use these retracements to find optimal prices at which to enter a trade. For example, if a stock moves up, but then retraces to the 61.8% level before moving higher again, that might be a signal to buy.

Why? Because the price retraced to a Fibonacci level during an uptrend. A trader could also use that retracement point to set a stop-loss order at the 61.8% level (remember, that’s the boundary of the price retracement, not the price itself). If the price drops down below that level, the rally may be a bust.

In other words, the Fibonacci retracement levels, while static, help to indicate potential inflection points where a stock might see a break or a reversal.

What Is a Fibonacci Extension?

As discussed, Fibonacci retracements may help indicate a price reversal. Fibonacci extensions apply the same logic to price moves in an upward trend.

With a Fibonacci extension, the trader uses three points to assess whether the price will continue on its trend. The first two points are similar to those used for a Fibonacci retracement: the trader picks two price points, a start and an end (e.g. a high and a low). The third point is the retracement level, which sets up the potential extension (if there is one).

Some of the key ratios used to calculate Fibonacci extensions are 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 200%, and 261.8%.

Limitations of Fibonacci Retracement

Fibonacci retracements may indicate potential price movements, especially when employed by experienced traders who are familiar with the application of this particular indicator. But over-relying on them can be counterproductive:

• Fibonacci retracements, like other indicators, are most informative when paired with at least one other technical analysis tool, such as moving averages.

• The use of Fibonacci retracement levels and extensions is generally a subjective endeavor. Although the numbers themselves do occur in a range of contexts in the natural world and in mathematics, there is no objectively tested rationale for how or when to use the Fibonacci numbers with stock prices.

• Fibonacci retracement sequences are often close to each other, therefore it may be tough to accurately predict future price movements.

Fibonacci Retracements and Trading

Traders typically use Fibonacci retracement levels to help anticipate price reversals, to set entry and exit points for trade, to create stop-loss orders, and more.

• Trend prediction. Fibonacci retracements have been known to predict the price reversals of a stock at early stages.

• Flexibility. Fibonacci retracement works for assets in any market and any time frame. Longer time frames could result in a more accurate signal.

• Gauge of market psychology. Fibonacci levels are built on both a set of mathematical calculations and the psychology of the market. Combined, these may convey a fair assessment of market sentiment.

The Takeaway

The Fibonacci retracement technical indicator can help identify hidden levels of support and resistance so that analysts may be able to better time their trades. The Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from the well-known mathematical phenomenon known as the Fibonacci sequence: a series where each number is the sum of the previous two numbers.

From this sequence, mathematicians dating back centuries were able to derive ratios based on the relationship between one number and another in the series. What makes these ratios significant is that they recur in a range of contexts, from the natural world to the stock market.

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FAQ

How accurate is Fibonacci retracement?

Fibonacci retracement levels can be useful for traders, although no indicator is perfect and they are best used in combination with other technical indicators. The accuracy levels often increase with longer time frames. For example, a 50% retracement on a weekly chart is a more important technical level than a 50% retracement on a five-minute chart.

What are the advantages of using Fibonacci retracement?

Fibonacci retracement is relatively easy to apply to any price chart. It’s not a formula, but a set of measurements that may help traders assess the importance of certain price movements and trends. When an experienced trader uses the Fibonacci ratios in combination with other technical indicators, it may be possible to set entry and exit points for trades and anticipate reversals.

What are the disadvantages of using Fibonacci retracement levels?

Although it’s well established that the Fibonacci numbers occur in plants, in galaxies, and in stock market movements, it’s not well understood why that is. Therefore, the use of the Fibonacci retracement levels tends to be subjective. For that reason, it may be more effective in combination with other indicators that can help confirm price trend analysis.

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Jun

2024

What Is an Income Investing Strategy?

By Michael Flannelly | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

An income investing strategy focuses on generating income from your principal rather than growth, i.e. capital gains. Income investors typically seek out investments that provide a regular income stream, such as dividends from stocks, interest from bonds, or rental payments from a property.

Investors might be interested in income investing in order to create an additional income stream during their working years. Other investors may focus on generating monthly income during retirement. Income investors need to take into account several factors, including the tax implications of different types of income.

How Income Investing Works

Income investing can be a way to generate a passive income stream that supplements ordinary income as well as retirement income. Rather than creating a portfolio that’s solely focused on capital gains, i.e. growth, an income investing strategy is geared toward setting up one or more sources of steady income.

Again, dividend-paying stocks, interest-bearing bonds, and real estate proceeds are common types of income investments that may provide steady cash flow. While many people associate investment income with retirement, many investors seek to establish other income streams long before that.

That said, these two aims — growth and income — are not mutually exclusive. In fact, an income-generating portfolio must also have a growth component, in order to keep up with inflation.

Types of Income Investing Strategies

There are a range of income investing assets and strategies that investors can adopt, depending on their goals and preferences. For example, when creating an income-focused portfolio, it’s important to consider your risk tolerance, as different income investments may have different risk profiles.

1. Dividend Stocks

Dividend stocks are stocks that pay out regular dividends to shareholders. Not all companies pay dividends. Companies that do usually pay dividends quarterly, and they can provide a reliable source of income for investors.

Income investors are generally attracted to companies that pay out reliable dividends, like the companies in the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index. Companies in this index have increased dividends every year for the last 25 consecutive years.

• Dividend Yield

One metric that income investors should consider is the dividend yield. While dividends are a portion of a company’s earnings paid to investors, expressed as a dollar amount, dividend yield refers to a stock’s annual dividend payments divided by the stock’s current price, and expressed as a percentage.

Dividend yield is one way of assessing a company’s earning potential.

While a high dividend yield might be attractive to some investors, risks are also associated with high-yield investments. Investors who want regular and consistent income tend to avoid stocks that pay high yields in favor of dividend aristocrats that may pay lower yields.

2. Bonds

Bonds are a debt instrument that normally make periodic interest payments to investors. Also known as fixed-income investments, bonds are typically less risky than stocks and can provide a steady stream of income. The bond’s yield, or interest rate, determines the interest income payment.

There are various bonds that fixed-income investors can consider. For example, government bonds are debt securities issued by a government to support government spending and public sector projects. Government bonds — like U.S. Treasuries and municipal bonds — are generally less risky than other types of bonds and can provide tax-advantaged income and returns.

Investors can also lend money to businesses through corporate bonds, which are debt obligations of the corporation. In return for money to fund operations, companies make periodic interest payments to investors. Corporate bonds carry a relatively higher level of risk than government bonds but also provide higher yields.

However, not all bonds offer yield to investors interested in generating regular income. Some bonds, called zero-coupon bonds, don’t pay interest at all during the life of the bond.

The upside of choosing zero-coupon bonds is that by forgoing annual interest payments, it’s possible to purchase the bonds at a deep discount to par value. This means that when the bond matures, the issuer pays the investor more than the purchase price.

Recommended: How to Buy Bonds: A Guide for Beginners

3. Real Estate

Real estate may be a great source of income for investors. Rents paid by tenants act as a regular income payout. Real estate may also offer long-term price growth, in addition to some tax benefits.

There are several ways to invest in real estate, including buying rental properties and investing in real estate investment trusts (REITs).

Recommended: Pros & Cons of Investing in REITs

4. Savings Accounts

Savings accounts are a safe and easy way to earn interest on cash. Savings accounts and other cash-equivalent saving vehicles like high-yield savings accounts or certificates of deposits (CDs) are often considered very low risk. But they also typically offer lower interest rates than you might see with other investments. Because these interest rates are typically lower than the inflation rate, inflation can erode the value of the money in these savings accounts longer term.

In addition, when you purchase a CD it may have more stringent minimum deposit requirements, as well as keeping your money locked up for a specific period of time. Still, they can be a low-risk way to earn income.

5. Money Market Accounts

A money market account (MMA) is an FDIC-insured deposit account that typically pays higher interest rates than a traditional savings account. However, MMAs may be more restrictive than a savings account, often only allowing a certain number of withdrawals each month using checks or a debit card.

Also, money in a money market account can be invested by the bank in government securities, CDs, and commercial paper — which are all considered relatively low-risk investments. With a traditional savings account, money is not invested.

But unlike most investments, money market accounts at most banks are FDIC-insured up to $250,000 for an individual, or $250,000 per co-owner in the case of joint accounts. In some cases investing in a money market account may earn a higher interest rate while still maintaining FDIC-insurance protection.

6. Mutual Funds and ETFs

Investors who don’t want to pick individual stocks and bonds to invest in can always look to mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have an income investing strategy.

There are many passively and actively managed funds that invest in a basket of securities that provide interest and dividend income to investors. These funds allow investors to diversify their holdings by investing in a single security with high liquidity.

Understanding the Tax Implications of Income Investing

Another important aspect of investing for income is to consider the tax implications of different income-producing assets. Here are a few key considerations to be aware of:

• Dividends. Most dividends are considered ordinary dividends and are taxed as income. Qualified dividends are taxed at the lower capital gains rate. Be sure to know the difference.

• Real estate. Income from a rental property is generally taxed as income (although business deductions may apply). Dividend payouts from owning shares of a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) are typically higher than traditional equity dividends; these are also taxed as income. However, if there are profits from a REIT, these are taxed at the capital gains rate.

• Bonds. Bond income may be taxable, or not, depending on the issuer. Some municipal bonds are tax free at the federal and state level (if you live in the state where the bond was issued). Corporate bond income is taxed at the state and federal levels. U.S. Treasuries are generally taxed at the federal level, but not the state.

You may also owe ordinary income or capital gains tax if you make a profit when selling a bond.

As you can see, tax issues can be complex and it’s often necessary to consult a tax professional.

Example of an Income Investing Portfolio

When building a portfolio for any investing strategy, investors must consider their financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. As with any investment portfolio, it’s possible to have lower or higher exposure to risk.

Here are some examples of hypothetical income investment allocations.

Lower Risk Tolerance

Asset type	Percent of holdings
Bonds (government and corporate)	60%
Dividend stocks	20%
Rental property or REITs	10%
Cash (savings account, money market account, and CDs)	10%

This is an illustrative portfolio and not intended to be investment advice. Nor is it a representation of an actual ETF or mutual fund. Please consider your risk tolerance and investment objective when creating your investment portfolio.

Moderate Risk Tolerance

Asset type	Percent of holdings
Bonds (government and corporate)	35%
Dividend stocks	30%
Rental property or REITs	30%
Cash (savings account, money market account, and CDs)	5%

Higher Risk Tolerance

Asset type	Percent of holdings
Bonds (government and corporate)	25%
Dividend stocks	30%
Rental property or REITs	45%
Cash (savings account, money market account, and CDs)	0%

Benefits and Risk of Income Investing

Like any investing strategy, there are both advantages and drawbacks to focusing on earning income through investments.

Benefits

The potential benefits of income investing include receiving a steady stream of payments, which can help to smooth out fluctuations in the market. In other words, even with a certain amount of market volatility, an income-generating strategy may produce income that provides a certain amount of ballast.

If an investor reinvests some or all of the income generated from a certain assets, whether bonds or dividend-paying stocks, this can add to the overall growth of the portfolio, thanks to compounding.

An income investing strategy may also provide diversification. For example, investing in REITs is considered a type of alternative investment strategy. That means, REITs don’t move in tandem with conventional assets like stocks, which may provide some protection against risk (although REITs can have their own risk factors to consider).

Risks

Investors who are pursuing an income investing strategy should be aware that investments that offer high yields may also be more volatile. The income from these investments may be less predictable than from more established investments, like blue chip stocks that pay out reliable dividends.

For example, a company with a high dividend yield may not be able to sustain that kind of payout and could suspend payment in the future.

When investing in bonds, investors need to know about the potential risks associated with fixed-income assets:

• Credit risk is when there is a possibility that a government or corporation defaults on a bond.

• Inflation risk is the potential that interest payments do not keep pace with inflation.

• Interest rate risk is the potential of fixed-income assets fluctuating in value because of a change in interest rates. For example, if interest rates rise, the value of a bond will decline, which could impact an investor who intends to sell some of their bond holdings.

Additionally, if investors take the income from their investment for day-to-day needs rather than reinvesting it, they may miss out on the benefits of compound returns. Investors could reinvest the income they earn on certain investments to take advantage of compounding returns and accelerate wealth building.

Factors to Consider When Building Your Income Investing Strategy

Building an income investing strategy takes work and time. Before creating a portfolio, you need to define your financial goals and consider your timeline for when you need the income streams. Below are some additional steps you could follow to create an income investing strategy:

• Assess your risk tolerance: It’s important to determine whether you want to invest more heavily in riskier assets, like dividend-paying stocks that may fluctuate in share price, or relatively safer securities, like interest-paying bonds.

• Choose your investments: As mentioned above, potential options for income investors include bonds, dividend stocks, and real estate investment trusts (REITs).

• Be mindful of taxes: Different types of income-producing assets may be taxed in different ways. It’s generally desirable to keep your portfolio tax efficient.

• Monitor your portfolio: It’s critical to regularly check in on your investments to ensure they are still performing according to your expectations.

• Rebalance as needed: If your portfolio gets out of alignment with your goals, consider making adjustments to get it back on track.

The Takeaway

An income investment strategy is, as it sounds, focused on using specific assets to provide income, not only growth (although income and growth strategies can work in harmony). Investing in dividend-paying stocks, interest-paying bonds, and other income-generating assets allows you to get the benefits of regular income streams and potential capital appreciation.

Invest with as little as $5 with a SoFi Active Investing account.

FAQ

What’s the difference between income investing and growth investing?

The goal of income investing is to create a certain amount of steady income from different types of assets. Investing for growth is focused on the potential gains of the securities in a portfolio. In a sense, income investing can be more present focused, while growth investing may be oriented toward the longer term.

What is the best investment for income?

There are various income-generating investments, each with its own risk profile and tax considerations. When choosing the best income investments for you, be sure to consider how different factors might impact your plan.

What investments give you monthly income?

While it’s possible to obtain monthly income from various types of investments, even dividend-paying stocks (dividends are often paid quarterly), a common source of monthly income is property. If monthly income is important to you, be sure to select assets that can meet your goal.

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Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Jun

2024

How to Calculate Expected Rate of Return

By Inyoung Hwang | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | No Comments

When investing, you often want to know how much money an investment is likely to earn you. That’s where the expected rate of return comes in; expected rate of return is calculated using the probabilities of investment returns for various potential outcomes. Investors can utilize the expected return formula to help project future returns.

Though it’s impossible to predict the future, having some idea of what to expect can be critical in setting expectations for a good return on investment.

Key Points

• The expected rate of return is the profit or loss an investor expects from an investment based on historical rates of return and the probability of different outcomes.

• The formula for calculating the expected rate of return involves multiplying the potential returns by their probabilities and summing them.

• Historical data can be used to estimate the probability of different returns, but past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

• The expected rate of return does not consider the risk involved in an investment and should be used in conjunction with other factors when making investment decisions.

What Is the Expected Rate of Return?

The expected rate of return — also known as expected return — is the profit or loss an investor expects from an investment, given historical rates of return and the probability of certain returns under different scenarios. The expected return formula projects potential future returns.

Expected return is a speculative financial metric investors can use to determine where to invest their money. By calculating the expected rate of return on an investment, investors get an idea of how that investment may perform in the future.

This financial concept can be useful when there is a robust pool of historical data on the returns of a particular investment. Investors can use the historical data to determine the probability that an investment will perform similarly in the future.

However, it’s important to remember that past performance is far from a guarantee of future performance. Investors should be careful not to rely on expected returns alone when making investment decisions.

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How To Calculate Expected Return

To calculate the expected rate of return on a stock or other security, you need to think about the different scenarios in which the asset could see a gain or loss. For each scenario, multiply that amount of gain or loss (return) by its probability. Finally, add up the numbers you get from each scenario.

The formula for expected rate of return looks like this:

Expected Return = (R1 * P1) + (R2 * P2) + … + (Rn * Pn)

In this formula, R is the rate of return in a given scenario, P is the probability of that return, and n is the number of scenarios an investor may consider.

For example, say there is a 40% chance an investment will see a 20% return, a 50% chance that the investment will return 10%, and a 10% chance the investment will decline 10%. (Note: all the probabilities must add up to 100%)

The expected return on this investment would be calculated using the formula above:

Expected Return = (40% x 20%) + (50% x 10%) + (10% x -10%)

Expected Return = 8% + 5% – 1%

Expected Return = 12%

What Is Rate of Return?

The expected rate of return mentioned above looks at an investment’s potential profit and loss. In contrast, the rate of return looks at the past performance of an asset.

A rate of return is the percentage change in value of an investment from its initial cost. When calculating the rate of return, you look at the net gain or loss in an investment over a particular time period. The simple rate of return is also known as the return on investment (ROI).

How to Calculate Rate of Return

The formula to calculate the rate of return is:

Rate of return = [(Current value − Initial value) ÷ Initial Value ] × 100

Let’s say you own a share that started at $100 in value and rose to $110 in value. Now, you want to find its rate of return.

In our example, the calculation would be [($110 – $100) ÷ $100] x 100 = 10

A rate of return is typically expressed as a percentage of the investment’s initial cost. So, if you were to sell your share, this investment would have a 10% rate of return.

Different Ways to Calculate Expected Rate of Return

How to Calculate Expected Return Using Historical Data

To calculate the expected return of a single investment using historical data, you’ll want to take an average rate of returns in certain years to determine the probability of those returns. Here’s an example of what that would look like:

Annual Returns of a Share of Company XYZ
Year	Return
2011	16%
2012	22%
2013	1%
2014	-4%
2015	8%
2016	-11%
2017	31%
2018	7%
2019	13%
2020	22%

For Company XYZ, the stock generated a 21% average rate of return in five of the ten years (2011, 2012, 2017, 2019, and 2020), a 5% average return in three of the years (2013, 2015, 2018), and a -8% average return in two of the years (2014 and 2016).

Using this data, you may assume there is a 50% probability that the stock will have a 21% rate of return, a 30% probability of a 5% return, and a 20% probability of a -8% return.

The expected return on a share of Company XYZ would then be calculated as follows:

Expected return = (50% x 21%) + (30% x 5%) + (20% x -8%)

Expected return = 10% + 2% – 2%

Expected return = 10%

Based on the historical data, the expected rate of return for this investment would be 10%.

However, when using historical data to determine expected returns, you may want to consider if you are using all of the data available or only data from a select period. The sample size of the historical data could skew the results of the expected rate of return on the investment.

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How to Calculate Expected Return Based on Probable Returns

When using probable rates of return, you’ll need the data point of the expected probability of an outcome in a given scenario. This probability can be calculated, or you can make assumptions for the probability of a return. Remember, the probability column must add up to 100%. Here’s an example of how this would look.

Expected Rate of Return for a Stock of Company ABC
Scenario	Return	Probability	Outcome (Return * Probability)
1	14%	30%	4.2%
2	2%	10%	0.2%
3	22%	30%	6.6%
4	-18%	10%	-1.8%
5	-21%	10%	-2.1%
Total		100%	7.1%

Using the expected return formula above, in this hypothetical example, the expected rate of return is 7.1%.

Calculate Expected Rate of Return on a Stock in Excel

Follow these steps to calculate a stock’s expected rate of return in Excel (or another spreadsheet software):

1. In the first row, enter column labels:

• A1: Investment

• B1: Gain A

• C1: Probability of Gain A

• D1: Gain B

• E1: Probability of Gain B

• F1: Expected Rate of Return

2. In the second row, enter your investment name in B2, followed by its potential gains and the probability of each gain in columns C2 – E2

• Note that the probabilities in C2 and E2 must add up to 100%

3. In F2, enter the formula = (B2*C2)+(D2*E2)

4. Press enter, and your expected rate of return should now be in F2

If you’re working with more than two probabilities, extend your columns to include Gain C, Probability of Gain C, Gain D, Probability of Gain D, etc.

If there’s a possibility for loss, that would be negative gain, represented as a negative number in cells B2 or D2.

Limitations of the Expected Rate of Return Formula

Historical data can be a good place to start in understanding how an investment behaves. That said, investors may want to be leery of extrapolating past returns for the future. Historical data is a guide; it’s not necessarily predictive.

Another limitation to the expected returns formula is that it does not consider the risk involved by investing in a particular stock or other asset class. The risk involved in an investment is not represented by its expected rate of return.

In this historical return example above, 10% is the expected rate of return. What that number doesn’t reveal is the risk taken in order to achieve that rate of return. The investment experienced negative returns in the years 2014 and 2016. The variability of returns is often called volatility.

Standard Deviation

To understand the volatility of an investment, you may consider looking at its standard deviation. Standard deviation measures volatility by calculating a dataset’s dispersion (values’ range) relative to its mean. The larger the standard deviation, the larger the range of returns.

Consider two different investments: Investment A has an average annual return of 10%, and Investment B has an average annual return of 6%. But when you look at the year-by-year performance, you’ll notice that Investment A experienced significantly more volatility. There are years when returns are much higher and lower than with Investment B.

Year	Annual Return of Investment A	Annual Return of Investment B
2011	16%	8%
2012	22%	4%
2013	1%	3%
2014	-6%	0%
2015	8%	6%
2016	-11%	-2%
2017	31%	9%
2018	7%	5%
2019	13%	15%
2020	22%	14%
Average Annual Return	10%	6%
Standard Deviation	13%	5%

Investment A has a standard deviation of 13%, while Investment B has a standard deviation of 5%. Although Investment A has a higher rate of return, there is more risk. Investment B has a lower rate of return, but there is less risk. Investment B is not nearly as volatile as Investment A.

Recommended: A Guide to Historical Volatility

Systematic and Unsystematic Risk

All investments are subject to pressures in the market. These pressures, or sources of risk, can come from systematic and unsystematic risks. Systematic risk affects an entire investment type. Investors may struggle to reduce the risk through diversification within that asset class.

Because of systematic risk, you may consider building an investment strategy that includes different asset types. For example, a sweeping stock market crash could affect all or most stocks and is, therefore, a systematic risk. However, if your portfolio includes different types of bonds, commodities, and real estate, you may limit the impact of the equities crash.

In the stock market, unsystematic risk is specific to one company, country, or industry. For example, technology companies will face different risks than healthcare and energy companies. This type of risk can be mitigated with portfolio diversification, the process of purchasing different types of investments.

Expected Rate of Return vs Required Rate of Return

Expected return is just one financial metric that investors can use to make investment decisions. Similarly, investors may use the required rate of return (RRR) to determine the amount of money an investment needs to generate to be worth it for the investor. The required rate of return incorporates the risk of an investment.

What Is the Dividend Discount Model?

Investors may use the dividend discount model to determine an investment’s required rate of return. The dividend discount model can be used for stocks with high dividends and steady growth. Investors use a stock’s price, dividend payment per share, and projected dividend growth rate to calculate the required rate of return.

The formula for the required rate of return using the dividend discount model is:

RRR = (Expected dividend payment / Share price) + Projected dividend growth rate

So, if you have a stock paying $2 in dividends per year and is worth $20 and the dividends are growing at 5% a year, you have a required rate of return of:

RRR = ($2 / $20) + 0.5

RRR = .10 + .05

RRR = .15, or 15%

What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model?

The other way of calculating the required rate of return is using a more complex model known as the capital asset pricing model.

In this model, the required rate of return is equal to the risk-free rate of return, plus what’s known as beta (the stock’s volatility compared to the market), which is then multiplied by the market rate of return minus the risk-free rate. For the risk-free rate, investors usually use the yield of a short-term U.S. Treasury.

The formula is:

RRR = Risk-free rate of return + Beta x (Market rate of return – Risk-free rate of return)

For example, let’s say an investment has a beta of 1.5, the market rate of return is 5%, and a risk-free rate of 1%. Using the formula, the required rate of return would be:

RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.05 – .01)

RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.04)

RRR = .01 + .06

RRR = .07, or 7%

The Takeaway

There’s no way to predict the future performance of an investment or portfolio. However, by looking at historical data and using the expected rate of return formula, investors can get a better sense of an investment’s potential profit or loss.

There’s no guarantee that the actual performance of a stock, fund, or other assets will match the expected return. Nor does expected return consider the risk and volatility of assets. It’s just one factor an investor should consider when deciding on investments and building a portfolio.

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FAQ

How do you find the expected rate of return?

An investment’s expected rate of return is the average rate of return that an investor can expect to receive over the life of the investment. Investors can calculate the expected return by multiplying the potential return of an investment by the chances of it occurring and then totaling the results.

How do you calculate the expected rate of return on a portfolio?

The expected rate of return on a portfolio is the weighted average of the expected rates of return on the individual assets in the portfolio. You first need to calculate the expected return for each investment in a portfolio, then weigh those returns by how much each investment makes up in the portfolio.

What is a good rate of return?

A good rate of return varies from person to person. Some investors may be satisfied with a lower rate of return if its performance is consistent, while others may be more aggressive and aim for a higher rate of return even if it is more volatile. Ultimately, it is up to the individual to decide what is considered a good rate of return.

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Jun

2024

What Is a Bump-Up Certificate of Deposit?

What Are Bump-Up Certificates of Deposit? All You Need to Know

By Laurel Tincher | Growing Wealth, Investing, money | Comments Off

A bump-up certificate of deposit (CD), also known as a step-up CD or raise-your-rate CD, is a type of savings account that allows the account owner to “bump up” or increase the interest rate they earn if rates rise during the CD term. Typically, one bump up is allowed, and the other terms of the CD remain the same after that.

The initial interest rate of a bump-up CD is lower than other types of CDs, but it comes with the potential opportunity to earn a higher rate.

What Is a Bump-Up CD?

A bump-up certificate of deposit is a type of savings account that is similar to an ordinary CD in many ways.

If an investor opens a bump-up CD account, it will start out with a certain interest rate. The investor will be required to deposit a certain amount of money to open the account and agree to keep it there for a specified period. The major difference between a bump-up CD and a traditional CD is that the account owner can potentially increase the interest rate they earn if rates go up during the term of the CD. This bump up is typically allowed only once during the CD term.

How a Bump-Up CD Works

If, during the term of a CD, the issuer’s interest rates increase, the CD account owner can ask the issuing bank to raise the interest rate they earn on their CD. This is quite different from a standard savings account, where the account owner has no control over the interest rate. So if the initial rate on a bump-up CD is 4.00%, and during the maturity term the rate increases to 5.00%, the account holder can request a bump up to 5.00%.

If the interest rate drops to 4.50% sometime after that, the investor is protected and keeps their bump up to 5.00%.

Usually, interest rates can only be increased one time during a CD term, but some banks do offer multiple bump-ups if the term of the CD is long. Also important to note is that some banks may put a cap on how high the interest rate can be bumped on a CD. So if interest rates go up a lot, CD owners may not be able to fully take advantage. Generally, bump-up CDs have a two- to four-year term. Like a regular CD, these accounts are FDIC-insured.

Recommended: How to Invest in CDs

Example of a Bump-Up CD

Say an investor opens a bump-up CD with a two-year term and a rate of 4.00%. One year into the CD term, the issuing bank’s interest rates rise, and they now offer 5.00% on the same type of CD. The investor can request that the rate on their CD be increased to the new rate of 5.00% for the second year of its term.

In this example, if the investor deposited $10,000 into the CD when they opened it and earned 4.00% on their money for the full two-year term, by the end of the term they would have $10,816.00 at the maturity date. However, if they earned 4.00% for the first year and 5.00% for the second year, at the maturity date they would have $10,900.00, or about $84 more. That might not seem like a lot, but when you’re saving and investing for the future, every little bit helps.

Advantages of Bump-Up CDs

There are some benefits to bump-up CDs, including:

• Ability to raise the CD’s interest rate during its maturity term instead of having to wait or open a new CD

• The potential to get new, higher rates without any early withdrawal penalties

Disadvantages of Bump-Up CDs

Bump-up CDs come with some drawbacks as well. Here are some to consider.

• Since bump-up CDs typically allow only one bump up, they are recommended for investors who have a deep understanding of the interest-rate system and what might happen during their investment term.

• The initial interest rate on bump-up CDs tends to be lower than other types of CDs. So even though there is the ability to raise the rate later, a traditional certificate of deposit may still earn more interest since it likely starts at a higher rate.

• Interest rates may not go up during the CD term, locking the investor into the initial lower rate.

• If interest rates do start to increase, timing the bump-up on a CD can be challenging. By bumping up earlier you can take advantage of a higher interest rate for more time, but you could miss out on an even higher rate that might come later.

How to Open a Bump-Up CD

Banks and credit unions offer bump-up CDs just like they offer checking and savings accounts. To open a bump-up CD, an investor deposits a certain amount, and the CD has a particular starting interest rate and term. Once the bump-up CD is open, the account owner can contact the issuing bank or credit union to increase the rate if it rises during the CD term. As mentioned, bump-up CDs typically offer the account holder just one opportunity to request a rate increase.

Factors to consider when opening a CD include:

• Maturity term of the CD: Bump-up CDs tend to have longer terms than traditional CDs, such as two years or more.

• Bump-up frequency: Does the CD offer the opportunity to bump up more than once? Many don’t but some may.

• Initial interest rate: If interest rates don’t rise, the initial rate will be the ongoing rate throughout the CD term. And bump-up CDs tend to have lower interest rates to begin with.

• Minimum deposit to open the account: Some bump-up CDs may require higher minimum deposits than traditional CDs, depending on the issuer.

• Early withdrawal rules and penalties: Inquire with the financial institution what the consequences might be for cashing in the CD before the term ends.

• Fees: Typically, there aren’t fees involved with CDs, but that isn’t always the case. Find out if there are any fees and how much they are.

Alternatives to Bump-Up CDs

There are several other types of interest-bearing deposit accounts and CD investment strategies that investors may want to consider, such as:

Traditional CD

A traditional CD has a fixed interest rate over the course of its maturity term. Traditional CDs often earn higher rates than bump-up CDs. They also usually have shorter terms.

CD Laddering

Since it can be hard to predict what will happen with interest rates in the future, another investing strategy is to create a CD ladder.

A CD ladder is a portfolio of CDs that each have a different interest rate and maturity term. This strategy provides an investor with a range of interest rates, allowing them to take advantage of changes in the market. Each time one of their CDs matures they have some funds to put into a new CD or cash out. Usually, a longer-term CD will have a higher rate, but by opening some shorter-term CDs as well, investors can put their money into new ones if interest rates increase, rather than opening a bump-up CD.

Here is an example of how an individual might set up a CD ladder with five rungs if they have $10,000 to invest:

• $2,000 in a one-year CD

• $2,000 in two-year CD

• $2,000 in a three-year CD

• $2,000 in a four-year CD

• $2,000 in a five-year CD

As each CD matures, they can reinvest the funds into a new CD if interest rates are rising.

Step-Up CD

Similar to a bump-up CD, step-up CDs allow investors to take advantage of rising interest rates. The difference is, with a step-up CD, the issuer automatically raises the interest rates at certain intervals throughout the CD term. With a bump-up CD the rate is not automatically increased.

If you are looking for ways to bump up your savings, there are some other options in addition to CDs that you may want to consider. For instance, one way to potentially increase your savings is with a bank account with competitive rates, such as a high-yield savings account. You can shop around and explore the different savings options to see what might be right for you.

Interested in opening an online bank account? When you sign up for a SoFi Checking and Savings account with direct deposit, you’ll get a competitive annual percentage yield (APY), pay zero account fees, and enjoy an array of rewards, such as access to the Allpoint Network of 55,000+ fee-free ATMs globally. Qualifying accounts can even access their paycheck up to two days early.

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FAQ

What is an 18-month bump-up CD?

An 18-month bump-up CD is a certificate of deposit savings account that earns a certain amount of interest over the course of 18 months. If interest rates rise during that time, the account owner can request that the interest rate their CD earns be increased to the new rate.

When should I bump up my CD?

If you have a bump-up CD, you may want to consider a bump up when interest rates rise. However, remember that you are typically only allowed to bump up the rate once during the term of the CD. For this reason, bump-up CDs are generally best for investors who have a deep understanding of the interest-rate system and what might happen to rates during their CD term.

Who has bump-up CDs?

Bump-up CDs are typically offered by banks, online banks, and credit unions. You can explore bump-up CD options at different financial institutions to find one with the best rates and terms for you.

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SoFi Bank shall, in its sole discretion, assess each account holder’s Direct Deposit activity and Qualifying Deposits throughout each 30-Day Evaluation Period to determine the applicability of rates and may request additional documentation for verification of eligibility. The 30-Day Evaluation Period refers to the “Start Date” and “End Date” set forth on the APY Details page of your account, which comprises a period of 30 calendar days (the “30-Day Evaluation Period”). You can access the APY Details page at any time by logging into your SoFi account on the SoFi mobile app or SoFi website and selecting either (i) Banking > Savings > Current APY or (ii) Banking > Checking > Current APY. Upon receiving a Direct Deposit or $5,000 in Qualifying Deposits to your account, you will begin earning 4.50% APY on savings balances (including Vaults) and 0.50% on checking balances on or before the following calendar day. You will continue to earn these APYs for (i) the remainder of the current 30-Day Evaluation Period and through the end of the subsequent 30-Day Evaluation Period and (ii) any following 30-day Evaluation Periods during which SoFi Bank determines you to have Direct Deposit activity or $5,000 in Qualifying Deposits without interruption.

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What Is a Payback Period?

Using the Payback Period

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How to Calculate the Payback Period

Payback Period Formula (Averaging Method)

Example of Payback Period

Payback Formula (Subtraction Method)

Example of Payback Period Using the Subtraction Method

Other factors

Benefits of Using the Payback Period

Downsides of Using the Payback Period

The Takeaway

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Who Created Fibonacci Numbers?

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Support and Resistance

What Does a Fibonacci Retracement Do?

What Is a Fibonacci Extension?

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Fibonacci Retracements and Trading

The Takeaway

FAQ

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How Income Investing Works

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Types of Income Investing Strategies

1. Dividend Stocks

2. Bonds

3. Real Estate

4. Savings Accounts

5. Money Market Accounts

6. Mutual Funds and ETFs

Understanding the Tax Implications of Income Investing

Example of an Income Investing Portfolio

Lower Risk Tolerance

Moderate Risk Tolerance

Higher Risk Tolerance

Benefits and Risk of Income Investing

Benefits

Risks

Factors to Consider When Building Your Income Investing Strategy

The Takeaway

FAQ

What’s the difference between income investing and growth investing?

What is the best investment for income?

What investments give you monthly income?

What Is the Expected Rate of Return?

How To Calculate Expected Return

What Is Rate of Return?

How to Calculate Rate of Return

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Different Ways to Calculate Expected Rate of Return

How to Calculate Expected Return Using Historical Data

How to Calculate Expected Return Based on Probable Returns

Calculate Expected Rate of Return on a Stock in Excel

Limitations of the Expected Rate of Return Formula

Standard Deviation

Systematic and Unsystematic Risk

Expected Rate of Return vs Required Rate of Return

What Is the Dividend Discount Model?

What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model?

The Takeaway

FAQ

How do you find the expected rate of return?

How do you calculate the expected rate of return on a portfolio?

What is a good rate of return?

What Is a Bump-Up CD?

How a Bump-Up CD Works

Example of a Bump-Up CD

Advantages of Bump-Up CDs

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Disadvantages of Bump-Up CDs

How to Open a Bump-Up CD

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