Jun
22
2023
Lessons From the Dotcom Bubble_780x440-1

Lessons From the Dotcom Bubble

By | Financial Independence, invest, Terminology | Comments Off on Lessons From the Dotcom Bubble

If you’ve been watching this year’s tech stock rollercoaster with an odd sense of déjà vu, you’re not alone.

Members of the market-watching media have noted the strong parallels between today’s tech sector and what went down when the dot-com bubble burst back in 2000. And those similarities—rising stock valuations, an increase in initial public offerings (IPOs), and a focus on buzz over basics—have some experts pondering if history is repeating.

If you—or your parents, or your grandparents—were affected by the 2000 dot-com crash, you may be wondering if there’s something you can do to help protect your portfolio this time around.

Here are five lessons from the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis that followed.

What Caused the Dotcom Bubble, and Why Did It Burst?

Back in the mid-1990s, investors fell in love with all things internet-related. Dot-com and other tech stocks soared. The number of tech IPOs spiked. One company, theGlobe.com Inc., rose 606% in its first day of trading in November 1998.

Venture capitalists poured money into tech and internet start-ups. And enthusiastic investors—often drawn by the hype instead of the fundamentals—kept buying shares in companies with significant challenges, trusting they’d make it big later.

But that didn’t happen. Many of those exciting new companies with optimistically valued stocks weren’t turning a profit. And as companies ran through their money, and fresh sources of capital dried up, the buzz turned to disillusionment. Insiders and more-informed investors started selling positions. And average investors, many of whom got in later than the smart money, suffered losses.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index had climbed from under 1,000 to above 5,000 between 1995 to 2000. The gauge however slid from a peak of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000, to 1,139.90 on Oct. 4, 2002. Many wildly popular dotcom companies (including Kozmo.com, eToys.com, and Excite) went bust. Equities entered a bear market. And the Nasdaq didn’t return to its peak until 2015.

What Can Investors Today Learn from the Past?

Every investment carries some risk—and volatility for stocks is generally known to be higher than for other asset classes, such as bonds or CDs. But there are strategies that can help investors manage that risk. Here are some lessons:

1. Diversification Matters

One of the most established strategies for protecting a portfolio is to diversify into different market sectors and asset classes. In other words, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

It may be tempting to go all-in on the latest hot stock, or to invest in a sector you’re intrigued by or think you know something about. But if that stock or sector tanks, as tech did in 2000, you could lose big.

Allocating across assets may reduce your vulnerability because your money is distributed across areas that aren’t likely to react in the same way to the same event.

Diversifying your portfolio won’t necessarily ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. And you might not be able to brag about your big score. Over time though, and with a steady influx of money into your account, you’ll likely have the opportunity to grow your portfolio while experiencing fewer gut-wrenching bumps along the way.

2. Ignoring Investing Basics Can Have Consequences

Even as the stock market began its meltdown in 2000, individual investors—caught up in the rush to riches—continued to dump money into equity funds. And many failed to do their homework and research the stocks they were buying.

Prices didn’t always reflect underlying business performance. Most of the new public companies weren’t profitable, but investors ignored poor fundamentals and increasing warnings about overvalued prices. In a December 1996 speech, then Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that “irrational exuberance” could “unduly escalate asset values.” Still, the behavior continued for years.

When Greenspan eventually tightened up U.S. monetary policy in the spring of 2000, the reaction was swift. Without the capital they needed to continue to grow, companies began to fail. The bubble popped and a bear market followed.

From 1999 to 2000, shares of Priceline Inc., the name-your-own-price travel booking site, plunged 98%. Just a couple months after its IPO in 2000, the sassy sock puppet from Pets.com was silenced when the company folded and sold its assets. Even Amazon.com’s shares suffered, losing 90% of their value from 1999 to 2001.

And it wasn’t just day traders who were losing money. A Vanguard study showed that by the end of 2002, 70% of 401(k)s had lost at least one-fifth of their value, and 45% had lost more than one-fifth.

Valuing a Stock

There are many different ways to analyze a stock you’re interested in—with technical, quantitative, and qualitative analysis, and by asking questions about red flags. It can help in determining whether a company is undervalued or overvalued.

Even if you’re familiar with what a company does, and the products and services it offers, it can help to look deeper. If you don’t have the time to do your due diligence—to look at price-to-earnings ratios, business models, and industry trends—you may want to work with a professional who can help you understand the pros and cons of investing in certain businesses.

3. Momentum Is Tricky

Momentum trading when done correctly can be profitable in a relatively short amount of time—and successful momentum traders can turn out profits on a weekly or daily basis. But it can take discipline to get in, get your profit and get out.

Tech stocks rallied in the late 1990s because the internet was new and everybody wanted a piece of the next big thing. But when the reality set in that some of those dot-com darlings weren’t going to make it, and others would take years to turn a profit, the momentum faded. Investors who got in late or held on too long—out of greed or panic or stubbornness—came up empty-handed.

Identifying a potential bubble is tough enough, and it’s only the first step in avoiding the fallout should it eventually burst. Determining when that will happen can be far more challenging. If day-trading strategies and short-term investing are your thing, you may want to pay attention to the trends and your own gut, and get out when they tell you it’s time.

4. History May Repeat, But It Doesn’t Clone

Sure, there are similarities between what’s happening with today’s tech sector and the dot-com bubble that popped in 2000. But the situations are not exactly the same.

For one thing, investors today may have a better grip on what the Internet is, and how long it can take to develop a new idea or company. Some stock valuations today are, indeed, stretched but not as stretched as they were during the dot-com bubble.

And though a strong recovery from the Covid-19 recession could prompt the Fed to cool things down in the future, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank is in no hurry to raise benchmark short-term interest rates or to begin reducing its $120 billion in monthly bond payments used to stimulate the economy.

So though it can be useful to look at past events for investing insight, it’s also important to look at stock prices in the context of the current economy.

5. You Can’t Always Predict a Downturn, But You Can Prepare

The dot-com stock-market crash hit some investors hard—so hard that many gave up on the stock market completely.

That’s not uncommon. Investors’ decisions are often driven by emotion over logic. But the result was that those angry and fearful investors lost out on an 11-year bull market. You don’t have to look at every asset bubble or market downturn as a signal to run for the hills. Also, if the market decline is followed by a rally, you could miss out.

One strategy—along with diversifying your portfolio—may be to keep a small percentage of cash in your investment or savings account. That way you’ll have protected at least a portion of your money, and you’ll be set up to take advantage of any new opportunities and bargains that might emerge if the stock market does go south.

Investors should also really look at a company’s fundamentals as well. Does a business make sense? Does it seem like they can grow their sales and keep costs low? Who are the competitors? Do you trust the CEO and management? After deep research into these topics, if the company is still attractive to you, then it could make sense to hang on to at least some of the shares.

If you’re a long-term investor who’s purchased shares in strong, healthy companies, those stocks could very well rebound. But this is an incredibly difficult process that even seasoned investors can get wrong.

The Takeaway

Asset bubbles like the dot-com bubble can have different causes, but the thing they tend to have in common is that investors’ extreme enthusiasm leads them to throw caution to the wind.

In the late-‘90s and early-2000s, that “irrational exuberance” led investors to buy overpriced shares in internet companies with the expectation that they couldn’t lose. And when they did lose, the dot-com craze turned into a dot-com crash. Investors who thought they had a piece of the next big thing lost money instead.

Could it happen again? Unfortunately, there’s really no way to know when an asset bubble will burst or how severe the fallout might be. But a diversified portfolio can offer some protection. So can paying attention to investing basics and doing your homework before putting money into a certain stock. And it never hurts to ask for help.

With a SoFi Invest online brokerage account, investors can diversify their portfolio by putting money into stocks, ETFs or partial stocks called Fractional Shares. Do-it-yourself investors can trade on the Active Investing platform. Investors who prefer a more hands-off approach can have their portfolio managed for them with Automated Investing. And members can rely on SoFi’s educational resources and professional advisors for help.

Check out SoFi Invest today.


SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Third-Party Brand Mentions: No brands, products, or companies mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third-party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.

Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

Stock Bits
Stock Bits is a brand name of the fractional trading program offered by SoFi Securities LLC. When making a fractional trade, you are granting SoFi Securities discretion to determine the time and price of the trade. Fractional trades will be executed in our next trading window, which may be several hours or days after placing an order. The execution price may be higher or lower than it was at the time the order was placed.

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Jun
21
2023

What Is a Market Maker?

By | Financial Topics, Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off on What Is a Market Maker?

Market makers are trading firms that continuously provide prices at which they will buy or sell assets.

Market makers are typically banks, brokerage firms or proprietary trading firms. Unlike traditional investors, they’re not in the business of betting whether the price of an asset will go up or down. They also don’t tend to hang on to securities for very long. Instead, market makers profit off the tiny price spreads that come from buying and selling securities rapidly.

Because they stand ready to do both sides of a trade, market makers are considered to be liquidity providers. Liquidity is the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without affecting its price.

How Market Makers Work

In both stock and equity options trading, there are at least a dozen different exchanges. In order to provide prices across multiple exchanges, market makers rely on algorithms and ultra-fast computer systems to make sure their price quotes reflect the supply and demand for a security in the market.

Because of their use of such technology, market makers are sometimes called high-frequency traders. Here’s a closer look at the role market makers play in financial markets today.


💡 Quick Tip: All investments come with some degree of risk — and some are riskier than others. Before investing online, decide on your investment goals and how much risk you want to take.

How Market Makers Earn Money

Market makers seek to profit off the difference in the bid-ask spread, or the difference between the price at which an asset can be bought and the price at which it can be sold.

Overview of Bid-Ask Spreads

Here’s a hypothetical example of how market making works. Let’s say a firm provides a quote for $10-$10.05, 100×200. That means they’re willing to buy 100 shares for $10, while simultaneously offering to sell 200 shares at the price of $10.05. The first part of the offer is known as the bid, while the latter is known as the ask. The prices that market makers set are determined by supply and demand in the market.

This means an investor or broker executing on behalf of a client can buy shares from the market maker at $10.05. And another investor looking to sell shares, can do so at $10 to this market maker. The difference of 5 cents is how the market maker locks in a profit. While making pennies on each trade sounds miniscule, it can be massively profitable at huge volumes.

Bid-ask stock spreads tend to narrow when markets are more liquid and widen when markets are less liquid. This is because during periods of volatility, sellers are more inclined to sell while buyers are more likely to stay put, anticipating lower prices in the near future. Because bid-ask spreads tend to widen during periods of stock volatility, it also means market makers are able to capture bigger profits when markets are turbulent.

Because of the risk of holding onto securities while making markets on them, market makers often hedge their bets by getting exposure to other assets or shorting securities in separate trades.

Overview of Payment for Order Flow

Another way some market makers earn revenue is through a practice known as payment for order flow. This is when retail brokerage firms send retail client orders to market makers who then execute the orders.

So let’s say for example, a mom-and-pop investor at home puts in a buy or sell trade via their brokerage account. The broker then bundles that order with other client orders and sends them to an electronic market making firm, which then fulfills the orders.

Recommended: Brokerage Accounts Explained

Market makers pay fees to brokerage firms for sending those orders, and this is how brokerage firms have been able to offer zero-commission trading to retail clients in recent years.

Payment for order is common and legal, but it’s come under controversy over the years with some critics saying the practice incentivizes brokers to boost revenue, rather than find the best prices for their customers. Market makers are required by regulatory rules to execute client orders with “best execution, “ but execution quality can be defined by price, speed or liquidity.

Defenders of PFOF argue that retail investors get “price improvement,” when customers get a better price than they would on a public stock exchange. A Bloomberg Intelligence report estimated that retail investors in 2020 benefited from price improvement by $3.7 billion. Separately, brokers are required by Securities and Exchange Commission regulation to make available statistics on execution quality, in what’s known as 605 and 606 disclosures.

What Are Designated Market Makers (DMMs)?

Designated market makers are trading firms on the New York Stock Exchange who are in charge of ensuring orderly trading of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Each company that chooses to list on the Big Board picks a DMM for its shares.

DMMs are supposed to add a human touch to stock exchange trading in today’s electronic markets. In contrast, the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, the second-biggest venue for U.S. equities, doesn’t have DMMs for its listed companies and trading is instead completely electronic.

Famous for wearing distinctive blue-colored jackets on the floor of the NYSE, DMMs used to be known as “specialists” back in the day. There used to be dozens of specialist firms in the 1980s, but these days there are just a handful of DMMs active on the NYSE floor.

The Takeaway

Market makers are intermediaries who provide prices all day in two-sided markets, where both bids to buy and offers to sell are quoted. Instead of making long-term bets on whether an asset will rise or fall, they make money from holding on to assets for short periods and profiting off their tiny bid-ask spreads. Market makers rely on high volumes in order to generate significant revenue.

Market makers are also sometimes called high-frequency traders because they use ultra-fast technology and algorithms to connect to multiple exchanges and quote numerous prices continuously. They’re considered important participants in modern financial markets because they speed up the pace at which transactions take place, particularly in stock and equity options trading.

On the SoFi Invest® online brokerage app, users can buy and sell stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or fractional shares. SoFi Securities LLC (Active Investing) earns a small amount of money from market makers–a process that allows users to trade without commission fees. For users who choose the Automated Investing service, SoFi will build and manage their portfolios for them and charge no management fees.

Check out SoFi Invest today.


SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Stock Bits
Stock Bits is a brand name of the fractional trading program offered by SoFi Securities LLC. When making a fractional trade, you are granting SoFi Securities discretion to determine the time and price of the trade. Fractional trades will be executed in our next trading window, which may be several hours or days after placing an order. The execution price may be higher or lower than it was at the time the order was placed.
Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.

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Jun
16
2023

Intrinsic Value vs Market Value, Explained

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off on Intrinsic Value vs Market Value, Explained

Intrinsic value vs. market value refers to the difference between where a stock is currently trading and where it perhaps ought to be, according to its fundamentals. The term “market value” simply refers to the current market price of a security. Intrinsic value represents the price at which investors believe the security should be trading at. Intrinsic value is also known as “fair market value” or simply “fair value.”

When it comes to value vs. growth stocks, value investors look for companies that are out of favor and below their intrinsic value. The idea is that sooner or later stocks return to their intrinsic value. That’s why it can be important to understand the differences and help it inform your strategy.

What Is Market Value?

In a sense, there is only one measure of market value: what price the market assigns to a stock, based on existing demand.

Market value tends to be influenced by public sentiment and macroeconomic factors. Fear and greed are the primary emotions that drive markets. During a stock market crash, for example, fear may grip investors and the market value of many stocks could fall well below their fair market values.

News headlines can drive stock prices above or below their intrinsic value. After reading a company’s annual report that’s positive, investors may pile into a stock. Even though better-than-expected earnings might increase the intrinsic value of a stock to a certain degree, investors can get greedy in the short-term and create overextended gains in the stock price.

The rationale behind value vs price, and behind value investing as a whole, is that stocks tend to overshoot their fair market value to the upside or the downside.

When this leads to a stock being oversold, the idea is that investors could take advantage of the buying opportunity. It’s assumed that the stock will then eventually rise to its intrinsic value.


💡 Quick Tip: All investments come with some degree of risk — and some are riskier than others. Before investing online, decide on your investment goals and how much risk you want to take.

What Is Intrinsic Value?

The factors that can be used to determine intrinsic value are related to the fundamental operations of a company. It can be tricky to figure out how to evaluate a stock. Depending on which factors they examine and how they interpret them, analysts can come to different conclusions about the intrinsic value of a stock.

It’s not easy to come to a reasonable estimation of a company’s valuation. Some of the variables involved have no direct physical, measurable counterpart, like intangible assets. Intangible assets include things like copyrights, patents, reputation, consumer loyalty, and so on. Analysts come to their own conclusions when trying to assign a value to these assets.

Tangible assets include things like cash reserves, corporate bonds, equipment, land, manufacturing capacity, etc. These tend to be easier to value because they can be assigned a numerical value in dollar terms. Things like the company’s business plan, financial statements, and balance sheet have a tangible aspect in that they are objective documents.


💡 Quick Tip: Newbie investors may be tempted to buy into the market based on recent news headlines or other types of hype. That’s rarely a good idea. Making good choices shouldn’t stem from strong emotions, but a solid investment strategy.

Calculating Intrinsic Value vs Market Value

There can be multiple different ways to determine the intrinsic value of an asset. These methods are broadly referred to as valuation methods, or using fundamental analysis on stocks or other securities. The methods vary according to the type of asset and how an investor chooses to look at that asset.

Calculating Intrinsic Value

For dividend-yielding stocks, for example, the dividend discount model provides a mathematical formula that aims to find the intrinsic value of a stock based on its dividend growth over a certain period of time. Dividends are periodic income given to shareholders by a company.

Upon calculating the dividend discount model, an investor could then compare the answer to the current market value of a stock. If market value were to be lower, then the stock could be seen as undervalued and a good buy. If market value were to be higher, then the stock could be seen as overvalued and not worth buying or possibly an opportunity to sell short.

Another method for estimating intrinsic value is discounted cash flow analysis. This method attempts to determine the value of an investment in terms of its projected future cash flows.

While the dividend discount model and discounted cash flow analysis can be seen as objective ways to determine a stock’s value, they also have a large subjective component. Analysts must choose a timeframe to use in their model. Using different timeframes can lead to different conclusions.

Longer timeframes are often thought of as being more accurate because they include more data points. But they could also dilute the significance of more recent trends.

Example Using Dividend Discount Model

For example, if a company had years of steady dividend growth, but recently slashed its dividend by 50%, a dividend discount model analysis based on a long timeframe would show this reduction in dividend payments to be less severe than an analysis based on a shorter time frame.

The longer timeframe would include previous years of dividend growth, which would theoretically outweigh the recent reduction.

The reduction may have come from a large decrease in earnings. If that trend were to continue, the company could be doomed to the point of having to suspend its dividends. So in this hypothetical example, a shorter time frame could actually lead to a more realistic conclusion than a longer one.

Calculating Market Value

The determination of market value is rather simple by comparison. Someone can either simply look at what price a stock is trading at or calculate its current market capitalization. The formula for market capitalization or market cap is:

Total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the current stock price.

Dividing market cap by number of shares also leads to the current stock price.

Sometimes companies engage in “corporate stock buybacks,” whereby they purchase their own shares, which reduces the total number of shares available on the market.

This increases the price of a stock without any fundamental, tangible change taking place. Value investors might say that stocks pumped up by share buybacks are overvalued. This process can lead to extreme valuations in stocks, as can extended periods of market euphoria.

The Takeaway

Intrinsic value and market value describe the values of a security as they’re currently trading versus where their underlying fundamentals suggest they should be trading. Using the intrinsic value vs market value method is likely best suited to a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.

Stock prices can remain elevated or depressed for long periods of time depending on market conditions. Even if an investor’s analysis is spot on, there’s no way to know for sure exactly when any stock will return to its intrinsic value. That’s critical to understand if you hope to utilize intrinsic value vs market value in your own investing strategy.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).


For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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Jun
13
2023
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What Are Leveraged ETFs?

By | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off on What Are Leveraged ETFs?

Leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are tradable funds that allow investors to make magnified bets on an underlying index. Leveraged ETFs have been popular among investors looking to amplify their exposure to a market with a single trade. But they have their risks, like all investments.

Because of how they augment price swings, leveraged ETFs can cause massive losses. And for reasons related to their inner mechanics, they’re not good at delivering sizable returns when held for an extended time. That means investors may not see the returns they expect.

How Do Leveraged ETFs Work?

Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, are securities, but themselves are a form of index investing. They’re typically baskets of stocks, bonds or other assets that aim to mirror the moves of an index, though ETFs can have many different aims or goals. Leveraged ETFs use derivatives so that investors can double (2x), triple (3x) or short (-1) the daily gains or losses of the index. Financial derivatives are contracts whose prices are reliant on an underlying asset.

In finance, leverage is the practice of using borrowed money to increase the potential return on an investment. Leveraged ETFs use derivatives to increase the potential return on an investment.

Let’s look at a hypothetical example. Say an investor buys a regular, non-leveraged ETF. Here’s how such an ETF would work. If it tracks the S&P 500 Index and the benchmark gauge rises 1% on a given day, the non-leveraged ETF would also climb about 1%.

If, however, the investor buys a triple leveraged ETF or 3x ETF, their return for that given trading day could be a 3% gain. The reverse scenario could also happen, though. If the S&P 500 fell 1% on a given day, the owner of the triple leveraged ETF can suffer a 3% loss.


💡 Quick Tip: All investments come with some degree of risk — and some are riskier than others. Before investing online, decide on your investment goals and how much risk you want to take.

What Is ‘Decay’ in Leveraged ETFs?

There are pros and cons to ETFs themselves. But leveraged ETFs can be particularly problematic for investors due to their design. They are constructed to deliver multiples of an underlying asset’s daily returns, not weekly, monthly or annual returns. Leveraged ETFs don’t deliver the exact magnitude of 2x or 3x if held for longer than a day.

So, if the S&P 500 were to rise 5% in a week, a triple leveraged S&P 500 would not climb 15% in that week. The same would be true for a double leveraged ETF. There’s no guarantee it would return 2x or 10% to its owner.

That’s because of how leveraged ETFs are constructed. In order to maintain their 2x or 3x exposure, leveraged ETFs use derivatives that need to be rebalanced at the end of each day. This process can erode the returns of the ETFs — a process known as “decay” in the market.

Types of Leveraged ETFs

1.    Double Leveraged (2x) ETFs give investors double exposure to the daily return of an index of stocks, bonds, or commodities. So if an asset or market moves 1.5% in a single day, the fund aims to deliver a return of 3% that day.

2.    Triple Leveraged (3x) ETFs try to provide investors with 3x amplification. So if the underlying asset or index rises or falls 2% on a trading day, the ETF seeks to rise or fall 6%.

3.    Inverse (-1) ETFs are also considered to be leveraged ETFs. They move in the opposite direction of the underlying asset they’re designed to follow. So if an index moves -1%, the ETF would aim to climb 1%, and vice versa. Inverse ETFs are essentially a form of shorting a stock. Investors are able to short the underlying market by buying shares of an inverse ETF.

Pros of Leveraged ETFs

Easy Leveraged Trades

Leveraged ETFs have made it easier for investors to make leveraged wagers on the market, which can be a day-trading strategy but not a practice that’s readily available to all investors, particularly retail investors at home who may be trading in smaller increments.

Useful For Quick Leveraged Market Wagers

Leveraged ETFs can be useful for a one-day wager that an investor wants to make on an underlying market, such as technology stocks, high-yield bonds, or emerging markets.

Allow For Easy Shorting

Inverse ETFs can give investors the ability to short, or bet against, an asset. Short sales aren’t easily available to non-professional investors, particularly retail investors at home. Shorting can be a way for investors to hedge or offset the risk in their holdings.

Cons of Leveraged ETFs

Potential For Outsized Losses

With leveraged ETFs, investors could potentially see outsized losses due to how the products compound returns. For instance, if an index were to tumble 3% in a single day, a holder of leveraged ETFs would experience a plunge of 9% in the shares of their fund.

Rebalancing Needs

Because of how they’re constructed, leveraged ETFs need to be rebalanced daily. This process can cause what’s known as “decay” in the fund, when the performance veers from the underlying asset’s returns. This means investors may not see the 2x or 3x returns if the leveraged ETF is held for longer than a single trading session.

Increased Investment Risk

Inverse ETFs allow investors to short assets, but because of how there’s no limit to how high an asset can go, that means investors could see their holdings in the inverse ETF go to zero.

Derivative Risks

Leveraged ETFs use derivatives to achieve their amplified returns. Therefore, investors should be aware of the counterparty risk — or the risk from the other parties involved in the derivatives.

Higher Costs

Leveraged ETFs tend to be more expensive than traditional ETFs. Investors who want to understand how fund fees work should look at the ETF’s expense ratio. For instance, some popular leveraged ETFs can have an expense ratio of 0.95%. That compares with more traditional ETFs, which can have an expense ratio of around 0.20%.

Closure Risks

There’s a high risk of closure. Investors who don’t sell out of their leveraged ETF shares before the delisting date could be left with positions that are difficult or costly to liquidate.


💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.

Regulation of Leveraged ETFs

Regulators’ rules on leveraged ETFs have varied in recent years. And they continue to change. In early 2023, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a bulletin about leveraged ETFs, warning investors about the particular risks associated with them.

In October 2020, the SEC made a rule change that would make it easier to launch leveraged ETFs, while capping the amount of leverage at 200%. The move was a break away from prior announcements that sought to slow down the creation of new leveraged ETFs. The SEC had previously allowed existing leveraged ETFs to be continued to be traded, while putting restrictions on the approval of new such funds. The SEC issued an alert about leveraged funds to retail investors in 2009.

In May 2017, the SEC approved the first quadruple (4x) leveraged ETF, only to halt its decision soon after.

Some investment firms and ETF providers have pushed for the term “ETF” to not be applied to leveraged and inverse funds. They argue that the term “ETF” is used for a range of products that can lead to significantly different outcomes for investors.

The Takeaway

Leveraged ETFs use derivatives in their construction to try to deliver amplified returns for an investor. Relative to index funds, ETFs can allow entire markets to be more easily traded, similar to how shares of a stock are traded. Leveraged ETFs are not safe for all investors, particularly inexperienced ones.

These ETFs can cause massive losses because of how they magnify returns. In addition, market observers and regulators have said that leveraged ETFs may be better suited for professional or experienced investors to be used within a single trading session. The use of derivatives in such funds causes their performance to veer from the underlying market if the ETFs are bought and held. As always, it’s important to do your research about any ETF or investment before investing.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).


For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): Investors should carefully consider the information contained in the prospectus, which contains the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, and other relevant information. You may obtain a prospectus from the Fund company’s website or by email customer service at [email protected]. Please read the prospectus carefully prior to investing.
Shares of ETFs must be bought and sold at market price, which can vary significantly from the Fund’s net asset value (NAV). Investment returns are subject to market volatility and shares may be worth more or less their original value when redeemed. The diversification of an ETF will not protect against loss. An ETF may not achieve its stated investment objective. Rebalancing and other activities within the fund may be subject to tax consequences.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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Jun
13
2023
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How Does Magic Formula Investing Work?

By | Growing Wealth, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off on How Does Magic Formula Investing Work?

Magic formula investing is a rules-based investing strategy developed by hedge fund manager and professor Joel Greenblatt. First outlined in his book, “The Little Book That Beats the Market,” the magic formula investing strategy takes a simplified approach to choosing investments that virtually any investor can apply.

It draws on principles of value investing to create portfolios with the potential to outperform the market. For interested investors, knowing the ins and outs of the strategy before applying it is important.

What Is Magic Formula Investing?

At its core, Greenblatt’s magic investing formula focuses on finding good companies to invest in that are trading at attractive prices. Specifically, this strategy focuses on two things: Stock price, and the cost of capital.

The magic formula helps investors find or pinpoint companies that they deem undervalued by the market, and that are likely to offer a high return on their invested capital. It shares some similarities with value investing, which emphasizes finding the “hidden gems” that trade below their intrinsic value.

Value investors often follow a buy-and-hold strategy, in which securities are purchased with the intent to hold them long-term. The idea is that even though the market may have undervalued a company, it could grow in value over time and result in higher returns once an investor decides to sell.

This strategy utilizes fundamental analysis, which involves looking at things like revenue and earnings, and calculating return on equity to measure a company’s financial health.

The difference between a buy and hold strategy and magic formula investing is that fundamental analysis doesn’t come into play. Instead, the formula relies on Greenblatt’s stock-screening method to identify the most promising stocks to invest in.


💡 Quick Tip: How do you decide if a certain trading platform or app is right for you? Ideally, the investment platform you choose offers the features that you need for your investment goals or strategy, e.g., an easy-to-use interface, data analysis, educational tools.

What Is the Magic Investing Formula?

Screening stocks using the magic formula method is based on a rankings system. As developed by Greenblatt, this system uses three distinct criteria to rank companies: earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), earnings per share, and return on capital.

Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT)

This is one way to measure a company’s profitability. This figure represents the net income of a company before income tax expense and interest expenses are deducted. To calculate a company’s EBIT, you’d subtract income tax expense and interest expenses from its revenue.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is another measure of profitability, though it’s calculated differently than EBIT. With EPS, you divide a company’s net profit by the total number of common shares of stock it has outstanding. This is also a way to measure a company’s value, since EPS can tell you roughly how much money it makes per share of stock. A higher EPS may suggest higher value and a willingness for investors to pay more for shares of a company’s stock.

Return on Capital

Return on capital measures how well a company is able to allocate its capital to investments that are profitable. To figure out this number, you’d subtract dividends from net income, then divide that by the sum total of the company’s debt and equity.

By applying EBIT, EPS, and return on capital, the magic formula method is intended to determine the best quality companies at the best price.

How Magic Formula Investing Works

For investors interested in using the magic investing formula to build a portfolio, there’s a specific sequence of steps to follow that Greenblatt outlines.

1. Set a Market Capitalization Threshold

Market capitalization (commonly known as market cap) represents the current number of shares of stock a company has outstanding multiplied by the price per share. Companies can be categorized as small-cap, mid-cap or large-cap, based on their market capitalization.

For magic formula investing, an investor will typically start by excluding any companies with a market capitalization below $100 million. But one could set this number higher or lower, depending on personal preferences. Greenblatt advocates setting the threshold at $1 billion (which means large-cap) to minimize volatility.

2. Exclude Certain Securities

In magic formula investing, an investor next needs to eliminate several categories of investments. Those include stocks in the financials and utilities sectors, as well as foreign companies and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). An ADR offers a way to indirectly own foreign companies that aren’t traded on U.S. stock exchanges.

3. Make the Necessary Calculations

Once an investor has narrowed down their list of companies, they can start running the numbers. Specifically, this means calculating:

•   Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT)

•   Earnings yield (EBIT divided by enterprise value, which is a company’s total value as measured by its market capitalization plus total debt minus its cash assets)

•   Return on capital (EBIT divided by the sum total of net fixed assets and working capital)

4. Create Your Rankings

After doing the above math, an investor can move on to ranking companies according to the magic formula — from highest earnings yield and highest return on capital to lowest. From this point on, one would focus on the top 20 to 30 companies when choosing how to invest.

5. Start Building Your Portfolio

Greenblatt suggests buying the stocks that rank in that top 20-30 list on a rolling basis. For instance, an investor would buy two to three positions per month for one year, eventually owning 24 to 36 of the top ranking companies. According to Greenblatt’s formula, owning at least 20 different companies will help to maintain diversification.

At the end of the 12-month period, the magic formula dictates that investors would sell off the losing stocks and the winners, being mindful of capital gains taxes rules. Then they’d start the cycle over again, using the magic formula rules to select a new crop of stocks to invest in.

Holding stocks for a year before selling at a gain or loss is intended to help maximize your after-tax returns. When you sell stocks at a profit that you’ve held longer than one year you’d be subject to the more favorable long-term capital gains tax rate.


💡 Quick Tip: When you’re actively investing in stocks, it’s important to ask what types of fees you might have to pay. For example, brokers may charge a flat fee for trading stocks, or require some commission for every trade. Taking the time to manage investment costs can be beneficial over the long term.

Magic Formula Investing Results

Any time one is considering an investment strategy, it’s important to look at how well it works when it comes to generating returns. Greenblatt’s approach is intended to help investors choose companies whose performance can potentially beat the market. And according to him, it has helped generate a 30% annual rate of return for investors who use the strategy, which is well above the typical return generated by the S&P 500.

There’s no guarantee that investors will see a positive return utilizing the strategy for any given year, however.

Whether investors can replicate those magic formula investing results for themselves can depend on different variables. For example, an individual portfolio may produce a very different return profile if an investor adjusts the market capitalization threshold up or down. Or if a company has an above-average year for revenue and profits, that could affect how the ranking calculations shake out.

Pros and Cons of Magic Formula Investing

The main idea behind the magic formula method is that it’s a simple enough strategy for even beginner investors to use. The idea is that by following the formula, an investor can eliminate some of the noise when making investment decisions.

That includes not giving in to investment biases that could prompt an investor to buy or sell at the wrong time. By focusing on the rankings and sticking with a one-year rolling schedule of buying and then selling, an investor can potentially remove their emotions from the equation. This can help avoid selling off stocks in a panic if the market becomes more volatile.

Downsides of Magic Formula Investing

While this formula can help an investor create a diversified portfolio, it’s still exclusionary in that it doesn’t include investing in foreign companies or companies in the financials and utilities sectors.

Beyond that, there’s no certainty that an investor will see positive magic formula investing results in the form of above-average returns — as noted. Greenblatt himself says that there’s nothing “magical” about the formula and that it shouldn’t be considered a guarantee of investment returns or performance. As with any investing strategy, it isn’t foolproof.

Finally, the magic formula investing strategy is meant to be a long-term one. For investors more interested in seeing quick results versus adopting a buy and hold mindset, day trading might be more appropriate.

The Takeaway

Hedge fund manager and professor Joel Greenblatt devised his magic formula investing strategy as a way to invest in a curated group of good companies with high potential for returns. The system ranks companies according to three criteria: earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), earnings per share, and return on capital. The system is simple enough that it’s intended for anyone from first-time investors to more seasoned investors.

But as with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that the magic formula investing results will be positive every time. There is a potential for both gains and losses.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).


For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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