What Is A Currency Carry Trade in Forex Markets?

A currency carry trade is a popular type of forex trade, whereby an investor borrows in a low-interest currency in order to invest in a currency with a higher rate.

Putting on a carry trade is one way to take advantage of discrepancies between the interest rates of different currencies, particularly if the investor uses leverage.

This strategy can be risky, however, owing to the fact that interest rates, and currency values, can fluctuate at any time. The use of leverage adds additional risk, if the trade moves in the wrong direction.

What Is a Currency Carry Trade?

In a carry trade, forex traders borrow money at a low interest rate in order to invest in a currency where they can buy an asset with a higher rate of return. In the forex markets, a carry trade is a bet that one foreign currency will hold or increase its value relative to another currency, and that interest rates will also remain steady.

Of course, this active investing strategy hinges on whether or not interest rates and exchange rates are in the investor’s favor. The wider the interest rate spread between two currencies, the better the potential returns for the investor.

Even in cases with a relatively small rate differential, though, investors who use this strategy often employ leverage to maximize potential profits.

How Do You Execute a Carry Trade?

A carry trade strategy can be a relatively simple way to increase an investor’s returns, assuming they can find a currency with a higher rate and one with a lower rate, and that exchange rates between the two currencies remain relatively stable. In that way, it’s similar to understanding “spread trading” as it relates to stocks.

Currency Carry Trade Basics

Imagine that U.S. interest rates are at 5%, but the interest rate in Japan is 1% — a 4% spread. The yen would be considered the funding currency for the carry trade because the rate is lower, and the dollar is the asset currency (which typically has a higher rate).

A trader could borrow 1 million yen at 1%, and buy an asset such as a U.S. bond that has a 4% yield. When the bond matures, the investor could collect the bond yield, repay the yen they borrowed at 1%, and pocket the difference.

There is a wild card here, though, which is that both interest rates and currency values can change — sometimes suddenly — which can cause the trade to move in the wrong direction.

Here is an example of how the exchange rate and interest rate come into play in a currency carry trade.

Carry Trade Example

In this example the investor will borrow 1 million yen at 1%, and an exchange rate of 145 yen to the dollar.

1 million yen / 145 = $6,896.55

The investor could take the $6,896.55 and invest in a U.S. security that pays 4%, and collect that amount after a year.

$6,896.55 x $0.04 = $275.86

Total = $7,172.41

Now the investor has to repay the 1 million yen they borrowed at 1%, for a total of 1,000,100 yen, or $6,897.24
They subtract the principal from the ending balance in dollars:

$7,172.41 – $6,897.24 = $275.17

The resulting profit of $275.17 is 4% of the original spread between the interest rate spread of the two currencies.

Recommended: What Is Forex Trading?

Is a Carry Trade Risky?

The concept of a carry trade is simple, but in practice, it can involve investment risk.

In the above example, neither the exchange rate nor the interest rates moved — which in real life is highly unlikely.

Most notably, there’s the risk that the currency or asset a trader is investing in (the British pounds in our previous example) could lose value. That could put a damper on a trader’s expected returns, as it would eat away at the gains the difference in interest rates could provide.

Currency prices tend to be very volatile, and something as mundane as a monthly jobs report released by a government can cause big price changes.

Given the risks, carry trades in the currency markets may not be the most appropriate strategy for investors with a low tolerance for risk.

The Takeaway

Using a currency carry trade strategy is a popular one in the forex markets because it’s relatively easy to find currency pairs with an interest rate difference that can be exploited for a potential gain. The risk, though, lies in the potential for currency rates to shift, as well as interest rates.

FAQ

How does a carry trade work?

A currency carry trade works when two currencies are relatively stable, but one offers a much lower rate than the other. This makes it possible to borrow the funding currency to invest in a higher-yield security in the asset currency, and pocket the difference, minus the interest rate owed on the principal borrowed.

What happens when a carry trade moves in the wrong direction?

There are various risk factors when using a carry trade strategy. One is that the lower-rate currency could strengthen against the asset currency, and the investor would effectively repay a larger amount than they borrowed, thus cutting into any profit.

What is the forex market?

The forex market is where financial institutions, as well as individual investors, trade foreign currencies. The forex market is the largest in the world, and it’s possible to trade 24/7 — which is different from most markets, which have open and close hours.

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