As an investor, it’s important to understand the average return on stocks and what it can mean for portfolio growth over the long term. Overall, the average stock market return is 10% annually in the U.S. — but realistically, that figure is more like 6% to 7% when accounting for inflation.
It’s rare that the stock market average return is actually 10% in a given year. When looking at nearly 100 years of data — from 1926 to 2020 — the yearly average stock market return was between 8% and 12% only eight times. In reality, stock market returns are typically much higher or much lower.
There is a silver lining to this constant stock market drama. If someone loses thousands in the stock market, there’s a chance they’ll gain it back over time. That’s why many experts recommend holding onto investments when the market experiences a bad week, rather than selling different stocks at a loss.
Sure, investing may be a long-term game. But how much can investors expect to gain in an average year, or average decade?
Many people want to know how much they stand to gain or lose before retirement. The amount they gain or lose over time is known as the stock market return, and it’s an important factor for every investor in the stock market.
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5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year Average Stock Market Return
People typically don’t invest in the stock market for just one year. Instead, they invest for the long term in the hopes that the investments they buy today will be worth more years from now when they decide to sell. With that in mind, it may be more helpful to look at the average stock market return over the last 10, 20, and 30 years to understand stock price movement.
By looking at the S&P 500 we can start to get an idea of the average market returns dating back 5, 10, 20, and 30 years. Here’s what the average stock market returns look like for the last three decades, as outlined by MoneyChimp .
|Period||Average stock market return||Average stock market return adjusted for inflation|
|5 years (2016 to 2020)||13.95%||11.95%|
|20 years (2001 to 2020)||7.45%||5.3%|
|30 years (1991 to 2020)||10.72%||8.29%|
Average Market Return for the Last 5 Years
According to the S&P annual returns from 2016 to 2020, the average stock market return for the last five years was 15.27% (13.06% when adjusted for inflation).. That’s significantly above the typical stock market average return of 10%. It’s possible this figure may have been even higher if the market had not been marked by pandemic-related volatility early in 2020.
Average Market Return for the Last 10 Years
Looking at the S&P 500 from 2011 to 2020, the average S&P 500 return for the last 10 years is 13.95% (11.95% when adjusted for inflation), which is a little over the annual average return of 10%.
The stock market had its ups and downs over the decade, but the only years that experienced losses were 2015 and 2018, and the losses weren’t major — 0.73% and 6.24%, respectively.
Average Market Return for the Last 20 Years
Looking at the S&P 500 from 2001 to 2020, the average stock market return for the last 20 years is 7.45% (5.3% when adjusted for inflation).
The United States experienced some major lows and notable highs from 2000 to 2009.
In early 2000, the market was doing exceptionally well, but from late 2000 to 2002, the dot-com bust contributed to losses for three consecutive years. That period wasn’t helped by the aftermath of 9/11 in 2001.
In 2008, the financial crisis led to huge losses. Looking at these factors, it isn’t a huge surprise that the 20-year average stock market return is lower than the annual average.
Average Market Return for the Last 30 Years
When we add another decade to the mix, the average return inches closer to the annual average of 10%. Looking at the S&P 500 for the years 1991 to 2020, the average stock market return for the last 30 years is 10.72% (8.29% when adjusted for inflation).
Some of this success can be attributed to the dot-com boom in the late 1990s (before the bust), which resulted in high return rates for five consecutive years.
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What Is a Stock Market Return?
A stock market return is the profit, dividend, or both that an investor receives on their investment. To understand stock market returns, it helps to know why the stock market fluctuates.
A company share price may increase or decrease depending on various factors, such as supply vs. demand, market sentimentality, changes in revenue, and political issues, just to name a few. All of these factors can influence the average rate of return on stocks an investor realizes.
Seemingly unconnected financial factors, like increasing trade tariffs between two nations, can impact the valuation of certain stocks in an interconnected economy. Since the stock market is volatile, it is at times influenced by emerging global events and sudden changes in the prices of goods that are available to US consumers and businesses.
Looking at a single stock — say, an airline stock — as an example, then applying that knowledge to the stock market at large, may help investors understand the fluctuations.
Researchers, for instance, have argued that the announcement of retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from China to the US led to a $1.7 trillion loss in market value for listed companies. Other economists have claimed that U.S.-China tariffs cost the average American household $374 over the course of one year. And, when the WTO allowed US tariffs on European-made airplanes, airline stocks saw a decline.
Factors that Impact the Stock Market
Numerous factors affect the value of stocks and the average return on stocks for investors.
To continue with the airline example, the U.S. airline industry relies, in part, on leisure travelers’ discretionary spending — consumers opting to pay for flights that they do not need to take. When trade wars lead to less available money in Americans consumers’ pockets (i.e., certain taxed imports suddenly costing more), the market can react out of fear of future declines in sales or concern for the increasing cost of doing business. This is called market sentimentality, which can negatively affect a stock’s value.
When the US increased duties on Chinese metal imports, China reacted by levying tariffs on US exports. The 2019 announcement of retaliatory tariffs by China on the U.S.— impacting American-made goods like appliances, agriculture, construction equipment, textiles, and rubber — led to a one-day loss of $1 trillion in global stocks’ value.
As multiple companies’ share prices fluctuate simultaneously, the stock market as a whole can swing up or down. If a trade war affects various companies’ production overseas or consumer’s ability to spend domestically, numerous big businesses’ shares could drop, and the public could become uncertain about the U.S. economy. As a result, the market could dip. When tariffs on imports and exports ease, some stocks can rise—as traders anticipate reduced costs passed on to consumers and to businesses.
All this fluctuation affects stock market returns. When people wonder what their return will be, they’re asking how much they will have gained (or lost) in a year, or 10, 20, or 30 years. While everyone invests in different stocks and funds, a simple way to estimate how much they might gain is by looking at the average stock market return.
Measuring Growth in the Stock Market
How do people measure stock market returns? By looking at indexes. An index is a group of stocks that represents a section of the stock market, and there are roughly 5,000 indexes representing US stocks. Investors may be familiar with the three most popular market indexes: The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500.
The S&P 500 index represents the 500 largest publicly traded companies, such as Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Alphabet. It speaks for around 80% of the US stock market, so its performance is considered a good indicator of how the market is doing overall.
When people refer to the stock market and the average stock market return, they’re likely referring to the S&P 500.
What Is a Good Yearly Return on Stocks?
When discussing the average rate of return on stocks and what you can expect, it’s important to be realistic. As mentioned, the stock market average return tends to hover around 10%, though when you factor in inflation, stock market returns tend to be closer to 6%.
Using the 6% figure as a baseline, an investor might choose to construct a portfolio that’s designed to produce that level of returns. If you’re invested in funds that track the S&P 500, then you’re more likely to realize stock market returns that fall within the average or typical range. Anything above 6% might be considered icing on the cake.
If an investor is looking for above-average stock market returns, they might choose to take a more aggressive approach to building a portfolio, by looking at actively managed funds or momentum trading, for example, to try to capitalize on higher return potential. But those strategies can entail greater risk — and as always, there’s no guarantee that an investor will beat the market. Plus, active trading may mean paying higher expense ratios or commissions, which can eat into investment gains.
Using a buy-and-hold strategy and staying investing when the market moves up or down may help an investor realize consistent returns over time. With dollar-cost averaging, for instance, one would continue adding money to the market regardless of how high or low stock prices go. In doing so, they’d be able to ride the waves of the market as stock market returns increase or decrease, though they may not beat the market this way.
Taking this attitude can help an investor avoid falling into the trap of panic-selling when market volatility sets in. This is important because getting out of the market — or into it — at the wrong time could significantly impact a portfolio’s overall return profile.
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Why the S&P 500 Average Return Isn’t Always Average
The annual average of 10% is not a reliable indicator of stock market returns for a specific year because outliers can skew the annual average. When the return is much higher or much lower than usual in certain years, those years are known as outliers.
For example, the average stock market return for the last 20 years may seem low at 7.45%, especially when compared to the return for the last 10 years, which was 11.805%. But not every year from 2000 to 2009 was bad for the stock market. In fact, in 2003, the average return was 26.38%, and it was 23.45% in 2009. But there were negative outliers that affected the 20-year average.
Returns from 2000 to 2009 are perfect examples of outliers in the stock market. The late 1990s were the years of the dot-com bubble, when technology and website-based companies became popular in the market. In 2000, companies like Cisco and Dell placed huge “sell” orders on their stocks, and investors started panic-selling their shares.
This period is often referred to as the dot-com bust, and the market experienced annual losses for three years. In 2000, the average annual loss was 10.14%; in 2001, returns dropped by 13.04%; in 2002, they plummeted by 23.37%.
Financial Crisis of 2008
Another example of an outlier is the financial crisis of 2008. For years, banks had given unconventional loans to people with low income and bad credit so they could buy houses. As more people bought homes, housing prices increased drastically. People could no longer afford their homes, which put lenders in a tough spot.
The Fed proposed a bank bailout bill, but Congress denied the bill, in September of that year, resulting in a market crash. Congress passed the bill in October, but it couldn’t immediately undo the damage on the stock market. In 2008, the market return fell by a whopping 38.49%.
The dot-com bust and the financial crisis of 2008 are two prime examples of outliers that have caused stock returns to drop more than usual. But in years following these negative outliers, the stock market soared.
Panic from the dot-com bust and other tensions finally started to calm down in late 2003, and the market return was 26.38% for the year. Annual average returns continued to trend upward for four more years, until the crisis of 2008.
After the market crashed in 2008, it bounced back with a return of 23.45% in 2009 and continued to rise for six years. The first loss was in 2015, and that was only by 0.73%.
Sharp drops are often followed by sharp gains—and by consecutive annual gains, even if they aren’t huge. People who panicked and sold their stocks in 2008 once share prices started to drop likely lost a lot of money. But those who held onto their assets probably increased their earnings by 2012, when market returns had finally increased enough to offset how much the market lost in 2008.
When the stock market experiences a negative outlier, it can be helpful to consider keeping the long game in mind.
Future Stock Market Growth Predictions
As we can see from the outliers during the dot-com bust and financial crisis, when the stock market performs poorly, it tends to eventually bounce back. Similarly, if the stock market does exceptionally well, the market will eventually slow down and experience a loss. This can help with evening out the average return on stocks for investors.
The widely accepted rule is that if an investor’s rate of return is low now, they can expect it to be high in the future; if their rate of return is high now, they can expect it to be low in the future. Historically, the market balances out and experiences positive growth overall. Stock market returns increase around 70% of the time.
When share prices peak, then drop by 10% or more, that’s known as a stock market correction. If the market is doing swimmingly, investors can bet the market will correct itself by dipping.
All investments have risk, so there’s no way to guarantee a certain stock market return at all, let alone in a specific time frame. Numerous factors affect stocks’ performance, so it can be difficult to accurately predict how a stock will perform. And anyone who tells investors they can time the stock market to maximize returns is dead wrong.
While the average stock market return is 10% annually in the U.S., that number has some caveats attached.
Realistically, that figure is more like 6% to 7% when accounting for inflation. Plus, very few years see a stock market return of 10% — that number reflects an average, rather than a norm. Some years are higher, some years are lower.
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