Autumn Heat Shakes Up Retail’s Winter Sales Forecast

Sweater Slump

Retail is feeling the heat once again. This time, literally. The holiday shopping season is a crucial shopping period, but unusually warm fall temperatures across the U.S. and Europe are causing a dip in sales of heavy winter apparel.

Forecasting Fashion

The start to the fourth quarter will be warmer than usual, according to predictions from Weather Trends International. For retailers that means a sweater season that may require fewer actual sweaters.

Major retailers are reporting decreased sales figures. To combat the accumulating unsold stock, some stores are already slashing prices on winter items, a move typically reserved for post-holiday sales.

The early bird discounts — including a 20% sale on knitwear and outerwear by H&M’s (HNNMY) Cos brand — are indicative of the industry’s attempt to manage its inventory.

Warm Deals Ahead

The holiday shopping season is starting earlier and earlier, with retail giants like Amazon (AMZN), and Target (TGT) already gearing up for sales events in October. If winter apparel continues to underperform, the sector could face inventory challenges throughout the season, potentially leading to even more markdowns on winter items come early 2024.

While unpredictable weather poses challenges for retailers, it might just mean better deals on sweaters and jackets for you — as long as you’re willing to wait until next year to use them.

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