Inflation and trade uncertainty muddy the outlook as earnings season begins. After weeks of focusing on broad inflation and employment data, the focus is set to pivot from the macro to the micro: It’s the unofficial start of the second-quarter earnings season. As is tradition, the nation’s largest banks and financial institutions will lead the way. These financial giants provide a unique and vital window into the economy, with their results often revealing key trends in consumer spending, loan demand, and credit health. Investors will be listening closely to what executives say about the path of the economy and the impact of interest rates on their business and their customers, both now and in the future. The week won’t be without new economic data, though. The biggest release will be the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), a critical measure of inflation that will undoubtedly influence the market's mood. A hot inflation report would certainly amplify concerns around tariff price hikes, but that doesn’t mean that lower-than-expected inflation would be an all-clear signal. There’s always the possibility inflation will spike in future months. An analogy for the market backdrop is that of an obstacle course. Whether it’s earnings results or inflation reports, there are many things that could trip up the strong stock market momentum, but the only thing that will truly clear up the uncertainty clouding markets is a resolution to global trade upheaval. That is unlikely to come this week.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

•   Earnings: Fastenal (FAST).

Tuesday

•   July Empire State Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   June Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers.

•   Fedspeak: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will deliver the closing keynote speech at the 2025 Economic Measurement Seminar. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will discuss the Federal Reserve and the economic backdrop at an event hosted by the World Affairs Council of San Antonio. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will give a speech titled Forecasting Beyond Today’s Data.

•   Earnings: Bank of New York Mellon (BK), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Omnicom Group (OMC), State Street (STT), Wells Fargo (WFC)

Wednesday

•   June Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle.

•   July New York Services Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   June Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The industrial sector accounts for much of the cyclical swings in economic activity.

•   Fed Beige Book: This report is released eight times per year and tracks the state of the economy based on qualitative information.

•   Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.

•   Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak at Cuyahoga County Community College. New York Fed President John Williams will discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy at a New York Association for Business Economics event. Barkin will repeat his speech titled Forecasting Beyond Today’s Data.

•   Earnings: Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Morgan Stanley (MS), M&T Bank (MTB), Progressive (PGR), Prologis (PLD), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), United Airlines (UAL)

Thursday

•   June Retail Sales: This measures spending at retail stores and is a key indicator of consumer demand.

•   June Import/Export Price Indexes: These indexes track the changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

•   July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

•   July NAHB Housing Market Index: This index tracks how homebuilders feel about the current and future state of the single-family housing market.

•   Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Initial jobless claims have remained mostly steady, while continuing claims have increased of late.

•   Fedspeak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will discuss the economy and monetary policy at an Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum event. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will discuss the economic outlook and challenges for policymakers at an event hosted by MNI Connect.

•   Earnings: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Cintas (CTAS), Elevance Health (ELV), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), General Electric (GE), Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), Netflix (NFLX), PepsiCo (PEP), Snap-on (SNA), Travelers Companies (TRV), US Bancorp (USB)

Friday

•   June Building Permits and Housing Starts: Construction data is a leading indicator of economic activity.

•   July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.

•   Earnings: American Express (AXP), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX), 3M (MMM), Regions Financial (RF), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Schlumberger (SLB), Truist Financial (TFC)    

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