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The first-quarter earnings season is officially here.
At a Glance
• The news: The first-quarter earnings season kicks off in earnest this week. We’ll hear from big banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, as well as blue chips like Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, and Pepsi.
• The context: In a macro environment dominated by shifting interest rate expectations, volatile oil prices, and sticky inflation, earnings results can shed light on how consumers and businesses are actually experiencing this economy.
• Your move: Pay close attention to what the banks say. If executives signal rising delinquencies or a significant slowdown in business, it could inject a fresh dose of caution into a market that is already on edge.
The season begins with big banks including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup reporting. Given all the macrouncertainty, a read from them will be of particular importance in determining how the U.S. economy is functioning on the ground.
Think of them as the plumbing of the economy. Money flows through them for all sorts of reasons, whether it’s a consumer swiping a credit card for groceries or a small business taking out a loan to expand its operation.
The broader context is important here too: The market has spent the last month repricing to the reality that the massive oil disruption triggered by the Iran war will likely keep inflation elevated. It’s also recognized that the Federal Reserve won’t be in a rush to save the day by lowering interest rates. But if the banks that report this week suggest consumer behavior is shifting — or businesses are pulling back — discussions could shift away from the threat of inflation and toward the risk that consumers will stop spending money.
On the Docket
Monday
• March Existing Home Sales: Most home transactions in any given month tend to come from the existing market, and as a result set the tone for the broader housing market.
• Earnings: Fastenal (FAST), Goldman Sachs Group (GS)
Tuesday
• March NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions.
• March Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle.
• Fedspeak: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Semafor World Economy 2026 event, followed by Q&A. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will take part in a Fed fireside chat on rural investment.
• Earnings: BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC)
Wednesday
• April Empire State Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• March Import/Export Price Indexes: These indexes track the changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.
• April NAHB Housing Market Index: This index tracks how homebuilders feel about the current and future state of the single-family housing market.
• Fed Beige Book: This report is released eight times per year and tracks the state of the economy based on qualitative information.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Fedspeak: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the IIF Global Outlook Forum.
• Earnings: Bank of America (BAC), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Morgan Stanley (MS), M&T Bank (MTB), Progressive (PGR), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC)
Thursday
• April New York Services Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• March Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The industrial sector accounts for much of the cyclical swings in economic activity.
• Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver keynote remarks at an event at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York Metropolitan Club, followed by Q&A.
• Earnings: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), KeyCorp (KEY), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Marsh & McLennan Companies (MRSH), Netflix (NFLX), PepsiCo (PEP), Prologis (PLD), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Travelers Companies (TRV), US Bancorp (USB)
Friday
• Earnings: Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial (RF), Snap-on (SNA), State Street (STT), Truist Financial (TFC)
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