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Even before the Supreme Court upended the legal basis for billions of dollars in tariffs, it was hard to pin down how new U.S. trade policy could and would hit your wallet.

Over the past 11 months, we couldn’t be sure which tariffs would stick, how trade talks with specific countries or industries would pan out, whether businesses could source goods from the U.S. instead, and how much of the extra cost would get passed along to consumers.

Then the court decision came down, raising even more questions and clarifying only that tariffs remain a moving target. For now, meaningfully lower prices are unlikely and the main takeaway is that trade policy will continue to be a variable influencing everything from your monthly grocery bill to your long-term investment portfolio.

Here’s what we know.

What did the ruling actually change?

On Feb. 20, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the power to impose tariffs resides with Congress, not the Oval Office. Specifically, the court found that President Trump overstepped in relying on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to authorize many of the “Liberation Day” tariffs first launched last April.

In response, the president rescinded the IEEPA tariffs but immediately imposed a new blanket tariff of 10% under a different law — Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. And the net effect isn’t a hugely different average tariff rate — 13.7% versus 16%, according to an analysis by Yale University’s The Budget Lab. (Worth noting: The Budget Lab figures assume the president follows through on raising the rate to “the legally tested limits” of 15%, as he promised to do on Truth Social.)

The catch, however, is that without Congressional approval, the new tariffs are valid for only 150 days, so the president may have to pursue new legal paths after that. (He’s already said “alternative legal statutes” won’t require Congressional action.)

“The bottom line is that the president believes in tariffs as economic policy,” Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the nonpartisan Atlantic Council, recently wrote online. “His ability to wield tariffs is more constrained now without IEEPA, but it is still a powerful economic lever” that he will continue to use for the rest of his presidency, Lipsky wrote.

So what?

The Supreme Court ruling reshuffled the legal deck, but for your day-to-day costs, it could be a wash, at least for now. Here’s what to keep in mind:

It’s U.S. businesses and consumers that bear tariff costs: People talk about tariffs being “on” foreign countries, but it’s the U.S.-based importer that has to pay the tariff to the U.S. government. Essentially it’s a tax imposed when a company buys goods from a foreign country. Who ultimately bears that cost burden isn’t always clear.

To maintain a competitive edge, an exporter may decide to cover part of the cost by lowering what it’s charging the importer. Otherwise, the importer is forced to either absorb the cost, pass the cost onto its customers, or a bit of both.

Overall, nearly 90% of the economic burden of the 2025 tariffs was borne by U.S. businesses and consumers, though exporters were shouldering a bit more than that toward the end of the year, according to a new analysis by Liberty Street Economics.

In dollar terms, the 2025 tariffs cost U.S. households an average of $1,000 last year, and would have cost $1,300 this year, according to the Tax Foundation, a non-profit tax policy group. Now that the Supreme Court has ruled, households face about $600 in additional costs this year, reflecting tariffs that weren’t voided by the court and the new tariffs the president just imposed, the foundation estimated.

There could be a ‘sticky’ price problem: Tariffs or not, if companies see people are willing to pay more, they may have little incentive to lower prices. Economists call this “price stickiness,” meaning prices resist change and tend to move up faster than they come down.

Refunds are uncertain: The Supreme Court didn’t address whether or how the tariffs that were collected under the IEEPA might be returned. But at least 2,000 companies including FedEx and Costco have filed lawsuits to that effect, according to Reuters.

Even if they win those suits, however, it’s unclear how much of the money would make its way to consumers. The National Retail Federation said any refunds would “allow companies to reinvest in their operations, their employees and their customers,” and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Americans weren’t likely to see refunds.

The 150-day clock has started: Because the new tariffs are tied to a 150-day window, they could change along with the legal justifications. This could make every price tag feel temporary.

The bottom line: The trade landscape has become a state of high-stakes improvisation. Americans will need to stay agile. Comparison shop, look for brands that source domestically, and expect tariffs to remain a persistent variable.

Related Reading

Why Prices Won't Drop After the Trump Tariff Ruling, According to Economists (Texas Public Radio)

The Supreme Court Clipped Trump’s Tariff Powers – and Opened New Trade Battlefronts (Council on Foreign Relations)

Tariff Ruling Drives Near-Term Uncertainty, With Potential for Longer Term Stability (PIMCO Pod)

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