Growing Wealth Archives | Page 14 of 194

Aug

2024

Do You Pay Capital Gains on Roth IRAs and IRAs?

By Dan Miller | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Preparing for Retirement | Comments Off

You don’t have to pay capital gains tax on investment profits while they are held in a traditional or a Roth IRA account. In most cases, the question of taxes comes into play when you withdraw money from a traditional or Roth IRA.

Each type of IRA is subject to a different set of tax rules, and it’s essential to know how these accounts work, as the tax implications are significant now as well as in the future.

IRAs, Explained

An Individual Retirement Account (IRA) is a tax-advantaged account typically used for retirement savings. There are two main types of IRAs — traditional IRAs and Roth IRAs — and the tax advantages of each are quite distinct.

Generally speaking, all IRAs are subject to contribution limits and withdrawal rules, but Roth IRAs have strict income caps as well as other restrictions.

Contribution Limits

For tax year 2024, the annual contribution limits for both Roth and traditional IRAs is $7,000, and $8,000 for those 50 or older.

It’s important to know that you can only contribute earned income to an IRA; earned income refers to taxable income like wages, tips, commissions. If you earn less than the contribution limit, you can only deposit up to the amount of money you made that year.

One exception is in the case of a spousal IRA, where the working spouse can contribute to an IRA on behalf of a spouse who doesn’t have earned income. Like ordinary IRAs, spousal IRAs can be traditional or Roth in style.

Traditional IRAs

All IRAs are tax advantaged in some way. When you invest in a traditional IRA, you may be able to take a tax deduction for the amount you contribute in the tax year that you make the contribution.

The contributions you make may be fully or partially tax-deductible, depending on whether you or your spouse are covered by a workplace retirement plan. If you’re not sure, you may want to check IRS.gov for details.

The money inside the account grows tax-deferred, meaning any capital appreciation of those funds is not subject to investment taxes, i.e. capital gains tax, while held in the account over time. But starting at age 59 ½ , qualified withdrawals are taxed at regular income tax rates.

If you think about it, this makes sense because you make contributions to a traditional IRA on a pre-tax basis. When you take withdrawals, you then owe income tax on the contributions and any earnings.

With some exceptions, early withdrawals from a traditional IRA prior to age 59 ½ are subject to income tax and a 10% penalty.

Recommended: IRA Tax Deduction Rules

Roth IRAs

Roth IRAs follow a different set of rules. You contribute to a Roth IRA with after-tax money. That means you won’t get a tax deduction for contributions you make in the year that you contribute.

Your contributions grow inside your Roth IRA tax-free, along with any earnings. When you reach retirement age and start to make withdrawals, you won’t owe income tax on money you withdraw because you already paid tax on the principal (i.e. your original contribution amounts) — and the earnings are not taxed on qualified withdrawals.

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What Are Capital Gains Taxes?

Capital gains refer to investment profits. In a taxable investment account you would owe capital gains tax on the profits you made from selling investments: e.g., stocks, bonds, real estate, and so on.

You don’t owe capital gains tax just for owning these assets — it only applies if you profit from selling them. Depending on how long you held an investment before you sold it, you would owe short- or long-term capital gains.

Retirement accounts, however, are subject to their own set of tax rules, and traditional and Roth IRAs each handle capital gains taxes differently.

Are Gains Taxed in Traditional IRAs?

Traditional IRA plans, as noted above, are tax-deferred, which essentially means that investment profits are not subject to capital gains tax while they remain in the account. Given this, the sale of individual investments like stocks inside an IRA is not considered a taxable event.

However, with tax-deferred accounts like traditional IRAs, you do have to pay ordinary income tax on withdrawals (meaning, you’re taxed at your marginal income rate).

So when you take withdrawals from a traditional IRA, you will owe income tax on the amount you withdraw, including any investment gains (i.e., earnings) in the account.

Are Gains Taxed in Roth IRAs?

The same principle applies to Roth IRAs, even though these are after-tax accounts: You don’t have to pay taxes on investment income or any assets that you buy or sell inside your Roth IRA.

Because you contribute to a Roth IRA with after-tax money, your money grows tax-free inside your IRA. Also, the earnings in the account grow tax-free over time and those gains are not taxed within the account.

In addition, qualified withdrawals of contributions and earnings from a Roth IRA are tax free. But remember: early or non-qualified withdrawal of earnings from a Roth IRA would be subject to taxes and a penalty (with some exceptions; for details see IRS.gov).

Roth IRA Penalties

Because you contribute to a Roth IRA with after-tax money, you can always withdraw your contributions (meaning your principal) without paying any tax or penalties.

If you wait to withdraw money from your Roth IRA until you reach age 59 ½, you can also withdraw your earnings without tax or penalties — as long as you’ve had the account for at least five years.

If you withdraw Roth IRA earnings before age 59 ½ or before you’ve held the account for five years, you may be charged a 10% early withdrawal penalty, though there are IRA withdrawal rules that may help you avoid the penalty in certain situations.

Are Gains Taxed in 401(k)s?

An IRA and a 401(k) work in a similar way when it comes to capital gains tax. Just as there are traditional and Roth IRAs, there are also traditional and “designated” Roth 401(k) plans, and they work similarly to their corresponding IRA equivalents.

So, generally speaking, you do not owe any capital gains tax on the sale of any investments held inside either type of 401(k) account.

Opening an IRA With SoFi

Most people are familiar with the basic tax advantages of using an IRA to save for retirement. Traditional IRAs are tax-deferred accounts and may provide a tax deduction in the years you make contributions. Roth IRAs are after-tax accounts that can provide tax-free income in retirement.

But the fact that you don’t have to pay capital gains tax is also worth noting. With both a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA, buying and selling stocks or other investments is not considered a taxable event. That means that you will not owe capital gains tax when you sell investments inside your IRA.

Ready to invest for your retirement? It’s easy to get started when you open a traditional or Roth IRA with SoFi. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

Help grow your nest egg with a SoFi IRA.

FAQ

Are Roth IRAs subject to capital gains tax?

No, buying and selling stocks or other investments inside a Roth IRA is not considered a taxable event. This means that you will not owe capital gains tax for buying or selling investments inside your Roth IRA. And because contributions to Roth IRAs are made with after-tax money, you also won’t owe income tax on qualified withdrawals.

Do you have to pay taxes if you sell stocks in a Roth IRA?

Selling stocks inside a Roth IRA is not considered a taxable event. So whether you regularly buy and sell stocks inside your Roth IRA, or just have unrealized gains and losses, you won’t need to worry about capital gains tax.

What happens when you sell a stock in your Roth IRA?

Buying and selling stocks inside an IRA is not considered a taxable event. So you won’t owe capital gains tax on stock you sell, but you also won’t be able to offset gains with a loss you capture from a stock sale inside your IRA.

Photo credit: iStock/designer491

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Aug

2024

Should I Pull My Money Out of the Stock Market?

By Brian Nibley | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

When markets are volatile, and you start to see your portfolio shrink, there may be an impulse to pull your money out and put it somewhere safe — but acting on that desire may actually expose you to a higher level of risk.

In fact, there’s a whole field of research devoted to investor behavior, and the financial consequences of following your emotions (hint: the results are less than ideal).

A better strategy might be to anticipate your own natural reactions when markets drop — or when there’s a stock market crash — and wait to make investment choices based on more rational thinking (or even a set of rules you’ve set up for yourself in advance).

After all, for many investors — especially younger investors — time in the market often beats timing the stock market. Here’s an overview of factors investors might weigh when deciding whether to keep money in the stock market.

Investing Can Be an Emotional Ride

An emotion-guided approach to the stock market, whether it’s the sudden offloading or purchasing of stocks, can stem from an attempt to predict the short-term movements in the market. This approach is called timing the market.

And while the notion of trying to predict the perfect time to buy or sell is a familiar one, investors are also prone to specific behaviors or biases that can expose them to further risk of losses.

Giving into Fear

When markets experience a sharp decline, some investors might feel tempted to give in to FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt). Investors might assume that by selling now they’re shielding themselves from further losses.

This logic, however, presumes that investing in a down market means the market will continue to go down, which — given the volatility of prices and the impossibility of knowing the future — may or may not be the case.

Focusing on temporary declines might compel some investors to make hasty decisions that they may later regret. After all, over time, markets tend to correct.

Following the Crowd

Likewise, when the market is moving upwards, investors can sometimes fall victim to what’s known as FOMO (fear of missing out) — buying under the assumption that today’s growth is a sign of tomorrow’s continued boom. That strategy is not guaranteed to yield success either.

Why Time in the Market Matters

Answering the question, “Should I pull my money out of the stock market?” will depend on an investor’s time horizon — or, the length of time they aim to hold an investment before selling.

Many industry studies have shown that time in the market is typically a wiser approach versus trying to time the stock market or give in to panic selling.

One such groundbreaking study by Brad Barber and Terence Odean was called, “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors.”

It was published in April 2000 in the Journal of Finance, and it was one of the first studies to quantify the gap between market returns and investor returns.

• Market returns are simply the average return of the market itself over a specific period of time.

• Investor returns, however, are what the average investor tends to reap — and investor returns are significantly lower, the study found, particularly among those who trade more often.

In other words, when investors try to time the market by selling on the dip and buying on the rise, they actually lose out.

By contrast, keeping money in the market for a long period of time can help cut the risk of short-term dips or declines in stock pricing. Staying put despite periods of volatility, for some investors, could be a sound strategy.

An investor’s time horizon may play a significant role in determining whether or not they might want to get out of the stock market. Generally, the longer a period of time an investor has to ride out the market, the less they may want to fret about their portfolio during upheaval.

Compare, for instance, the scenario of a 25-year-old who has decades to make back short-term losses versus someone who is about to retire and needs to begin taking withdrawals from their investment accounts.

Is It Okay to Pull Out of the Market During a Downturn?

There is nothing wrong with deciding to pull out of the markets if they go south. But if you sell stock or other assets during a downturn, you run the risk of locking in your losses, as they say. Depending on how far values have declined, you might lose some of your gains, or you might lose some or all of your principal.

In a perfect world if you timed it right, you could pull your money out at the right moment and avoid the worst — and then buy back in, just in time to catch the rebound. While this sounds smart, it’s very difficult to pull off.

Benefits of Pulling Out of the Market

The benefit of pulling out of the market and keeping your money in cash is that cash isn’t volatile. Generally speaking, your cash won’t lose value over night, and that can provide some financial as well as psychological comfort.

As noted above if you make your move at the right time, you might prevent steeper losses — but without a crystal ball, there are no guarantees. That said, by using stop-limit orders, you can create your own guardrails by automatically triggering a sale of certain securities if the price hits specific lows.

Disadvantages of Pulling Out of the Market

There are a few disadvantages to pulling cash out of the market during a downturn. First, as discussed earlier, there’s the risk of locking in losses if you sell your holdings too quickly.

Potentially worse is the risk of missing the rebound as well. Locking in losses and then losing out on gains basically acts as a double loss.

When you realize certain losses, as when you realize gains, you will likely have to deal with certain tax consequences.

And while moving to cash may feel safe, because you’re unlikely to see sudden declines in your cash holdings, the reality is that keeping money in cash increases the risk of inflation.

💡 Recommended: How to Protect Your Money From Inflation

Using Limit Orders to Manage Risk

A market order is simply a basic trade, when you buy or sell a stock at the market price. But when markets start to drop, a limit order does just that — it puts a limit on the price at which you’re willing to sell (or buy) securities.

Limit orders are triggered automatically when the security hits a certain price. For sell limit orders, for example, the order will be executed at the price you set or higher. (A buy limit order means the trade will only be executed at that price or lower.)

By using certain types of orders, traders can potentially reduce their risk of losses and avoid unpredictable swings in the market.

Alternatives to Getting Out of the Stock Market

Here’s an overview of some alternatives to getting out of the stock market:

Rotating into Safe Haven Assets

Investors could choose to rotate some of their investments into safe haven assets (i.e. those that aren’t correlated with market volatility). Gold, silver, and bonds are often thought of as some of the safe havens that investors first flock to during times of uncertainty.

By rebalancing a portfolio so fewer holdings are impacted by market volatility, investors might reduce the risk of loss.

Reassessing where to allocate one’s assets is no simple task and, if done too rashly, could lead to losses in the long run. So, it may be helpful for investors to speak with a financial professional before making a big investment change that’s driven by the news of the day.

Having a Diversified Portfolio

Instead of shifting investments into safe haven assets, like precious metals, some investors prefer to cultivate a well-diversified portfolio from the start.

In this case, there’d be less need to rotate funds towards “safer” investments during a decline, as the portfolio would already offer enough diversification to help mitigate the risks of market volatility.

Reinvesting Dividends

Reinvesting dividends may also lead the long-term investor’s portfolio to continue growing at a steady pace, even when share prices decline temporarily. Knowing where and when to reinvest earnings is another factor investors may want to chew on when deciding which strategy to adopt.

(Any dividend-yielding stocks an investor holds must be owned on or before the ex-dividend date. Otherwise, the dividend won’t be credited to the investor’s account. So, if an investor decides to get out of the stock market, they may miss out on dividend payments.)

Rebalancing a Portfolio

Sometimes, astute investors also choose to rebalance their portfolio in a downturn — by buying new stocks. It’s difficult, though not impossible, to profit from new trends that can come forth during a crisis.

It’s worth noting that this investment strategy doesn’t involve pulling money out of the stock market — it just means selling some stocks to buy others.

For example, during the initial shock of the 2020 crisis, many stocks suffered steep declines. But, there were some that outperformed the market due to certain market shifts. Stocks for companies that specialize in work-from-home software, like those in the video conferencing space, saw increases in value.

Bear in mind, though, that these gains are often temporary. For example, home workout equipment, like exercise bikes, became in high demand, leading related stocks higher. Some remote-based healthcare companies saw share prices rise. But in some cases, these gains were short-lived.

Also, for newer investors or those with low risk tolerance, attempting this strategy might not be a desirable option.

Reassessing Asset Allocation

During downturns, it could be worthwhile for investors to examine their asset allocations — or, the amount of money an investor holds in each asset.

If an investor holds stocks in industries that have been struggling and may continue to struggle due to floundering demand (think restaurants, retail, or oil in 2020), they may opt to sell some of the stocks that are declining in value.

Even if such holdings get sold at a loss, the investor could then put money earned from the sale of these stocks towards safe haven assets — potentially gaining back their recent losses.

Holding Cash Has Its Benefits

Cash can be an added asset, too. Naturally, the value of cash is shaped by things like inflation, so its purchase power can swing up and down. Still, there are advantages to stockpiling some cash. Money invested in other assets, after all, is — by definition — tied up in that asset. That money is not immediately liquid.

Cash, on the other hand, could be set aside in a savings account or in an emergency fund — unencumbered by a specific investment. Here are some potential benefits to cash holdings:

First, on a psychological level, an investor who knows they have cash on hand may be less prone to feel they’re at risk of losing it all (when stocks fluctuate or flail).

A secondary benefit of cash involves having some “dry powder” — or, money on hand that could be used to buy additional stocks if the market keeps dipping. In investing, it can pay to a “contrarian,” running against the crowd. In other words, when others are selling (aka being fearful), a savvy investor might want to buy.

The Takeaway

Pulling money out of the market during a downturn is a natural impulse for many investors. After all, everyone wants to avoid losses. But attempting to time the market (when there’s no crystal ball) can be risky and stressful.

For many investors, especially younger investors with a longer time horizon, keeping money in the stock market may carry advantages over time. One approach to investing is to establish long-term investment goals and then strive to stay the course — even when facing market headwinds.

Always, when it comes to investing in the stock market, there’s no guarantee of increasing returns. So, individual investors will want to examine their personal economic needs and short-term and future financial goals before deciding when and how to invest.

While managing money during a market downturn might seem tricky, getting started with investing doesn’t need to be. It’s easy, convenient, and secure to set up an investment account with SoFi Invest.

SoFi Invest® is a secure app where users can take care of all their investment needs — including trading stocks, investing in IPO shares, and more. It also gives SoFi members access to complimentary financial advice and actionable market insights. Ready to start investing?

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

FAQ

Should you pull out of the stock market?

Ideally, you don’t want to impulsively pull your money out of the market when there is a crisis or sudden volatility. While a down market can be unnerving, and the desire to put your money into safe investments is understandable, this can actually expose you to more risk.

When is it smart to pull out of stocks?

In some cases it might be smart to pull your money out of certain stocks when they reach a predetermined price (you can use a limit order to set those guardrails); when you want to buy into new opportunities; or add diversification to your portfolio.

What are your options for getting out of the stock market?

There are always options besides the stock market. The ones that are most appealing depend on your goals. You can invest in safe haven investments (e.g. bonds or precious metals), you can put your money into cash; you can consider other assets such as real estate.

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

Aug

2024

What Does FUD Mean?

By Brian Nibley | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

FUD stands for “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” and refers to a general mindset of pessimism about a particular asset or market, as well as the manipulation of investor or consumer emotions so that they succumb to FUD.

While the term “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” has been in circulation for a century or so, it became popular as the abbreviation FUD in the 1970s — and widely known more recently, thanks to the highly volatile crypto markets. FUD is also used throughout finance and can apply to any asset class.

Here’s what you need to know about FUD now.

Key Points

• FUD, which stands for “fear, uncertainty, and doubt,” describes negative investor sentiment that can lead to impulsive decision-making in financial markets.

• Distinguishing between FUD and FOMO (fear of missing out) is crucial, as FUD represents collective fear while FOMO reflects collective greed during market fluctuations.

• The history of FUD dates back to the 1920s and gained traction in the 1970s as a tactic to influence consumer behavior through misinformation.

• In the cryptocurrency arena, FUD can refer to both deliberate attempts to manipulate prices and general skepticism about the asset class stemming from negative news.

• The impact of FUD can lead to significant market reactions, as exaggerated or misleading information spreads rapidly, influencing investor behavior during volatile periods.

What Does FUD Mean in Investing?

Investment strategies based on fear, uncertainty, and doubt are not usually recommended. Sometimes FUD might be justified, but in general, the term is used to describe irrational, overwhelming negative sentiment in the market.

Many investors have concrete or pragmatic fears and doubts. Some investors worry that they’ve invested too little or too late (or both). Others might fear a total market meltdown. Some investors worry that an unforeseen factor could impact their investments. These are ordinary, common concerns.

FUD is different, and it’s important to understand what FUD is. When investors talk about FUD, they’re referring to rumors and hype that spread through media (and social media) that drive impulsive and often irrational investor decisions. Think about the meme stock craze.

Thus the term FUD can often have a demeaning edge, in the sense that it refers to these unpredictable waves of investor behavior.

FUD vs FOMO: What Is the Difference?

What is FUD in stocks or the stock market? FUD can be thought of as the opposite of FOMO (fear of missing out). While FOMO tends to inspire people to do what others are doing — often in that they don’t want to miss out on a hot stock and potential gains — FUD can be described as a collective negative effect that spreads like wildfire, typically through social media.

When markets are going up, many people fall victim to FOMO trading, but when markets are going down, FUD can also spread swiftly. In the most basic sense, you could think of it like this: FUD equals fear and FOMO equals greed.

The two can sometimes be contrary indicators. In other words, when FUD seems to be everywhere, astute investors might actually be buying assets at reduced prices (aka buying the dip), and when many people are experiencing FOMO, seasoned traders might actually be selling at a premium.

Crypto traders offer a counter to FUD by using the term “hodl.” The hodl meaning is interpreted as “hold on for dear life.” Hodl comes from an old Reddit post where an investor posted a rant about having trouble timing the market, while misspelling the word “hold” several times.

The phrase was initially used in reference to Bitcoin but can apply to different types of cryptocurrency.

What Does FUD Mean in Crypto?

While FUD is often associated with investor sentiment in the crypto markets, the phrase “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” actually has a much longer history than many people realize.

The History of FUD

According to Wikipedia, the general term “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” dates back to the 1920s, but its abbreviation as FUD may have begun in 1975 when an executive departed IBM to start his own company, and noted that FUD was being used as a tactic to discourage customers from leaving IBM.

The use of FUD soon gained traction in marketing, sales, and public relations, and was used to indicate a psychological manipulation through disinformation.

As FUD traveled over to the investing realm, it has taken on a broader connotation — particularly in the crypto markets — referring to the potential many investors have to succumb to sudden anxiety or pessimism that changes their behavior.

FUD and Crypto

In crypto, FUD has become a well-known crypto term, and it means one of two things:

1. To spread doubt about a particular token or project in an attempt to manipulate prices downward.

2. The general skepticism and cynicism about crypto as an asset class, and any related news/events. Even the rumor of a negative event possibly happening can generate FUD.

• A crypto influencer tweets that a large company won’t accept BTC as payment: FUD

• China allegedly bans Bitcoin for the umpteenth time: FUD

• An investment manager says they will never own crypto: FUD

FUD Crypto and Memes

Crypto FUD also tends to involve the spreading of memes that can either amplify or lessen the FUD’s effect. Sometimes FUD being spread by the media is widely seen as trivial, in which case memes making fun of the idea might pop up. Or, if the FUD is perceived as more legitimate, memes making fun of those not taking the threat seriously might start circulating.

When Can FUD Occur?

FUD can occur whenever prices are falling or a big event happens that’s widely thought to be bearish. A company could miss earnings expectations or it could be revealed that an influential investor has taken a short position against a stock. Or the FUD could come from a larger source, like a pandemic, natural disaster, or the threat of a government defaulting on its debt.

The more catastrophic something could theoretically be, and the greater uncertainty surrounding its outcome, the more it becomes a suitable subject for people to spread FUD.
Sometimes markets react swiftly across the board to such news. Other times people take things out of context or exaggerate them, creating a sort of fake news buzz to scare others into selling.

In stocks and other regulated securities, it’s against the law to spread FUD with the intention of lowering prices. Doing so is considered to be a form of market manipulation and could subject individuals to legal action from regulatory agencies like the SEC, FINRA, or FINCEN.

As not all cryptocurrencies have been definitively classified as securities by all regulatory agencies, there is still some gray area. The idea that many altcoins could one day be deemed securities has itself become a big topic of FUD, because it would have a big impact on the regulatory landscape surrounding crypto.

FUD Crypto Examples

Here are a few well-known examples of FUD in crypto. These examples show FUD at its finest. There are elements of truth to them, but the idea is that their detrimental impacts to asset prices are exaggerated to the point of hysteria.

China Banning Bitcoin

This might be one of the best examples of FUD in crypto, and perhaps the one that has been the subject of more memes and Twitter rants than any other.

Practically every year since crypto hit the scene in a big way, and sometimes multiple times per year, officials in China claim to ban Bitcoin in one way or another. Of course, a real, comprehensive “ban” on Bitcoin would be a one-time event. What really happens is the Chinese government introduces some kind of restrictions for individuals or organizations involved in crypto markets, and media outlets report the event as a “ban on Bitcoin.”

In 2021, China really did make Bitcoin mining illegal in the country. Even so, markets shrugged off the event over time.

Government Regulation

Regulatory concerns coming from any national government can be a big source of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Because crypto markets are still somewhat new, many countries have yet to adopt regulatory frameworks around crypto that provide specific rules around the use and taxation of cryptocurrencies.

Several countries have tried to make any use of crypto illegal, while others make public statements about harsh restrictions coming down the line. Whether the threat is real or perceived, the mere suggestion of governments cracking down on crypto transactions tends to spook investors.

Bitcoin Boils the Oceans

Another example of FUD is the argument that some forms of crypto use so much energy that it’s not sustainable, making it a dangerous threat to the planet. These concerns usually refer to proof-of-work (PoW) crypto like Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum Classic, and others that require vast amounts of computer power for mining coins.

However, some analysts claim that a good portion of crypto mining is done with renewable energy. Moreover, these analysts note that gold mining, banking, transportation, construction, healthcare, and other industries use exponentially more energy than it takes to maintain the Bitcoin network.

💡 Recommended: How Much Electricity Is Needed to Mine Bitcoin?

The Fear of Lost Crypto

Nothing stokes investors’ fears like the idea of investment losses, but with crypto there’s the even greater dread of actually losing your coins. Unfortunately, there is some truth to that anxiety, in that there are notable cases of crypto being lost and never recovered, usually because someone loses the private keys that gave them access to their crypto.

Unfortunately, because crypto is decentralized, investors’ assets aren’t protected the same way they would be in traditional, centralized banking systems. (While it’s theoretically possible that all your cash money could vanish from your bank overnight, it’s highly improbable. And even if it did, you’d have the benefit of FDIC insurance.)

Influential Crypto Tweets

Another example of FUD includes some well-known Tweets and/or social media posts by famous people that had an immediate impact on a given type of crypto.

It’s important to remember that FUD moments don’t last, and the impact of a single power person on the price of a certain coin — even if it roiled markets for a period of time — was temporary.

Corporate Crypto Assets

In the last couple of years, several big corporations have launched, or announced plans to launch, a proprietary form of crypto. These include Facebook/Meta, JP Morgan Chase, Google, Amazon, Mitsubishi, and others.

Unfortunately, it’s not that easy to get a new crypto off the ground — despite the many comparisons between the crypto markets and the frontiers of the Wild West — and the failure of at least one high-profile coin helped to sow FUD for some investors.

Crypto Tax Law Changes

Whenever the question of crypto’s regulatory identity comes up (Is it a security or a commodity?) FUD ensues. That’s largely because of tax issues. Right now the regulations are up in the air, but the fear is that if crypto is deemed a security the SEC will have oversight and that could impact crypto companies and investors in a big way.

Solar Storms

Because crypto is digital, a great deal of FUD stems from technology-based fears that random events could take down electrical grids and effectively wipe out crypto holdings. One such FUD-inducing rumor is about the possibility of Earth being zapped by solar storms, but the scientific validity of this has yet to be confirmed.

The Takeaway

Crypto FUD is one of many crypto terms that have become popular, but the underlying concept — that fear, uncertainty, and doubt can influence investor behavior — is not new. In fact, FUD as an actual strategy exists in many spheres, including marketing, sales, public relations, politics (and of course crypto).

FUD can come from anywhere and be focused on just about anything, but crypto can be particularly vulnerable to FUD because this market is already quite volatile. It’s also a very new sector, and some investors don’t fully understand the technology involved, and they can be manipulated by alarmist rumors or even celebrity opinions.

Fortunately, many investors take a more rational approach to the markets and to crypto in particular.

FAQ

Who uses FUD?

Some FUD arises naturally from market movements or economic conditions. Some FUD is deliberately cooked up to instill enough fear in the markets that investors make impulsive decisions, e.g. selling one type of crypto for another.

Why does FUD matter?

It’s important for investors to understand the concept of FUD so that they don’t get caught in the inevitable waves of negativity that can lead some people to panic and make poor choices.

What Counts as FUD?

Ordinary fears and concerns about market performance, or an investor’s personal long-term goals, don’t count as FUD. FUD refers to a broader market or crypto phenomenon, where highly negative information goes viral and causes investors to panic.

Photo credit: iStock/dolgachov
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INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

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2024

What Is Fibonacci Retracement in Crypto Trading

What Is Fibonacci Retracement in Trading?

By Brian Nibley | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing | Comments Off

Fibonacci retracement is a type of technical indicator that traders use to determine the support and resistance levels for a stock price.

The well-known Fibonacci sequence of numbers, where each number is the sum of the two previous numbers, is important to how this technical analysis tool works owing to the relationship between the numbers in the series.

These ratios, expressed as a percentage, capture how much a stock price has retraced with its recent movement. The most important Fibonacci retracement levels are: 23.6% 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, 78.6%, and they are applied as horizontal lines on a stock chart.

Traders can use these retracement levels to mark high and low points that may offer signals that a price is going to stall out or reverse.

What Are Fibonacci Retracement Levels?

Fibonacci retracement levels are based on the Fibonacci series where each number equals the sum of the two previous numbers. The most basic series is: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, etc.

The relationship between these numbers has created the retracement levels commonly used by traders: 23.6% 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, 78.6%.

For example, each number is approximately 1.618 times greater than the preceding one. As a result, some analysts refer to 61.8% as “the golden ratio,” because it roughly equals the division of one number in the series by the number that follows it. For example: 13/21 = 0.6190, and 21/34 = 0.6176, and 34/55 = 0.6181

In fact, there are similar relationships to be found between other numbers in the series, and these have become the ratios used by technical traders to determine retracement levels in stock prices. For example, dividing a number in the series by the number three places to its right roughly equals 23.6%.

Note that 50% is somewhat of an exception to the rule: It’s not mathematically part of the Fibonacci-derived number set, but traders have nonetheless found it useful when gauging support and resistance levels.

Who Created Fibonacci Numbers?

The Fibonacci sequence is based on the work of a 13th-century mathematician Leonardo Pisano Bigollo, nicknamed Fibonacci. While Fibonacci was not the first to identify this series, he transformed mathematics in the West thanks to his introduction of the Hindu-Arabic system of numbers, a place-value system.

The Hindu-Arabic system, which we use today, replaced Roman numerals and the complex calculations that required.

In 1202, Fibonacci published Liber Abaci (“Book of Calculations”) to introduce Hindu-Arabic numerals. The Fibonacci series was included here, but the observation of this pattern had been identified and worked with for hundreds of years before, in India. Over time, its pattern has been observed in everything from the spiral of seeds in sunflowers to spirals in the double helix of DNA.

Because the Fibonacci sequence occurs frequently in various natural and mathematical contexts, it has been adopted for a number of uses, including as a technical analysis tool for stock traders. That said, the reason for the common occurrence of these numbers in contexts or applications that are unrelated, is not well understood.

How Does Fibonacci Retracement Work

Fibonacci retracement levels are not based on an exact formula that gets applied to the stock price movements. Rather, traders identify two static price points for analysis, e.g., a high and a low, and apply the retracement levels from the Fibonacci sequence to determine support and resistance levels.

If a stock price movement retraces a prior move, ending on a point that is represented by a Fibonacci number, it could indicate that a reversal is in store.

The use of Fibonacci ratios as a technical indicator is somewhat subjective, however, since the underlying numbers are a part of a mathematical pattern. They aren’t inherently related to stock prices or market movements.

For example, if a stock price rises to $20 from $15, a trader might set the retracement levels at 23.6% and 50%. Those would be, respectively: $18.82 ($20 – ($5 x 0.236) = $18.82) and $17.50 ($20 – ($5 x 0.50) = $17.50).

If the stock price retraced from $20 down to one of those levels, it could signal a reversal. But Fibonacci retracements can also be used to gauge the strength of an uptrend, by noting the support and resistance in relation to the retracement levels.

Support and Resistance

Support is the price level that acts as a floor, preventing the price from being pushed lower, while resistance is the high level that the price reaches over time. Analysts often illustrate these as horizontal lines on a graph.

A support or resistance level can also represent a pivot point, or point from which prices have a tendency to reverse if they bounce (in the case of support) or retreat (in the case of resistance) from that level.

Learn more: Support and Resistance: What Is It? How to Use It for Trading

What Does a Fibonacci Retracement Do?

Markets don’t go straight up or down. There are pauses and corrections along the way. Traders can use these retracements to find optimal prices at which to enter a trade. For example, if a stock moves up, but then retraces to the 61.8% level before moving higher again, that might be a signal to buy.

Why? Because the price retraced to a Fibonacci level during an uptrend. A trader could also use that retracement point to set a stop-loss order at the 61.8% level (remember, that’s the boundary of the price retracement, not the price itself). If the price drops down below that level, the rally may be a bust.

In other words, the Fibonacci retracement levels, while static, help to indicate potential inflection points where a stock might see a break or a reversal.

What Is a Fibonacci Extension?

As discussed, Fibonacci retracements may help indicate a price reversal. Fibonacci extensions apply the same logic to price moves in an upward trend.

With a Fibonacci extension, the trader uses three points to assess whether the price will continue on its trend. The first two points are similar to those used for a Fibonacci retracement: the trader picks two price points, a start and an end (e.g. a high and a low). The third point is the retracement level, which sets up the potential extension (if there is one).

Some of the key ratios used to calculate Fibonacci extensions are 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 200%, and 261.8%.

Limitations of Fibonacci Retracement

Fibonacci retracements may indicate potential price movements, especially when employed by experienced traders who are familiar with the application of this particular indicator. But over-relying on them can be counterproductive:

• Fibonacci retracements, like other indicators, are most informative when paired with at least one other technical analysis tool, such as moving averages.

• The use of Fibonacci retracement levels and extensions is generally a subjective endeavor. Although the numbers themselves do occur in a range of contexts in the natural world and in mathematics, there is no objectively tested rationale for how or when to use the Fibonacci numbers with stock prices.

• Fibonacci retracement sequences are often close to each other, therefore it may be tough to accurately predict future price movements.

Fibonacci Retracements and Trading

Traders typically use Fibonacci retracement levels to help anticipate price reversals, to set entry and exit points for trade, to create stop-loss orders, and more.

• Trend prediction. Fibonacci retracements have been known to predict the price reversals of a stock at early stages.

• Flexibility. Fibonacci retracement works for assets in any market and any time frame. Longer time frames could result in a more accurate signal.

• Gauge of market psychology. Fibonacci levels are built on both a set of mathematical calculations and the psychology of the market. Combined, these may convey a fair assessment of market sentiment.

The Takeaway

The Fibonacci retracement technical indicator can help identify hidden levels of support and resistance so that analysts may be able to better time their trades. The Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from the well-known mathematical phenomenon known as the Fibonacci sequence: a series where each number is the sum of the previous two numbers.

From this sequence, mathematicians dating back centuries were able to derive ratios based on the relationship between one number and another in the series. What makes these ratios significant is that they recur in a range of contexts, from the natural world to the stock market.

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FAQ

How accurate is Fibonacci retracement?

Fibonacci retracement levels can be useful for traders, although no indicator is perfect and they are best used in combination with other technical indicators. The accuracy levels often increase with longer time frames. For example, a 50% retracement on a weekly chart is a more important technical level than a 50% retracement on a five-minute chart.

What are the advantages of using Fibonacci retracement?

Fibonacci retracement is relatively easy to apply to any price chart. It’s not a formula, but a set of measurements that may help traders assess the importance of certain price movements and trends. When an experienced trader uses the Fibonacci ratios in combination with other technical indicators, it may be possible to set entry and exit points for trades and anticipate reversals.

What are the disadvantages of using Fibonacci retracement levels?

Although it’s well established that the Fibonacci numbers occur in plants, in galaxies, and in stock market movements, it’s not well understood why that is. Therefore, the use of the Fibonacci retracement levels tends to be subjective. For that reason, it may be more effective in combination with other indicators that can help confirm price trend analysis.

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Jul

2024

What Is Stagflation & Will It Happen Again?

By Michael Flannelly | Growing Wealth, invest, Investing, Terminology | Comments Off

Stagflation is an economic term that is actually a combination of the words stagnation and inflation — and describes an economy that is both stagnant, and experiencing inflation. For investors, it’s worth being aware of what it means, because of the threat it poses to economies and markets.

Stagflation creates potentially disastrous conditions where people experiencing a decline in purchasing power also feel discouraged against investing. It can create a chain reaction of wealth-destroying events where unemployment climbs and economic output slows, contributing to a national economic malaise.

What Is Stagflation?

Stagflation is a term used to describe a situation when the economy is growing slowly (stagnation) and prices rise rapidly (inflation).

The term was coined by British Conservative Party politician Iain Norman Macleod in a 1965 speech to Parliament. At the time, the United Kingdom was in the midst of simultaneous high inflation and unemployment. In the speech to Parliament, Macleod said, “We now have the worst of both worlds – not just inflation on the one side or stagnation on the other, but both of them together. We have a sort of ‘stagflation’ situation and history in modern terms is indeed being made.”

Usually, economists and analysts will use the unemployment rate as a proxy for economic activity when discussing stagflation. So, a period of stagflation is when unemployment rises while inflation — as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) — accelerates above normally acceptable levels of price growth.

However, like many economic concepts, there is no standard definition of stagflation. Policymakers, elected officials, and investors will use the term stagflation in various economic scenarios.

Stagflation vs Inflation

Inflation is a general increase in the average prices of goods and services. In contrast, stagflation is a combination of stagnant economic growth and rising inflation.

Low levels of inflation are normal for an economy; there’s a reason why movie theater tickets cost more today than they did in the 1950s. Inflation doesn’t become an issue until prices get out of control and spiral upwards. Policymakers within the Federal Reserve like inflation to rise about 2% each year.

You can have inflation without stagflation, but you can’t have stagflation without inflation.

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Has Stagflation Ever Happened?

Before the 1970s, economists didn’t think stagflation — a period of rising unemployment and inflation — was possible. Theoretically, inflation should decrease when unemployment increases because workers have less bargaining power to get higher wages. So, the theory goes, stagflation shouldn’t happen.

However, stagflation did occur in the United States from the mid-1970s. During the 1973-1975 recession, the U.S. experienced five quarters where the gross domestic product (GDP) decreased. Inflation peaked at 12.2% in November 1974, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.0% in May 1975.

This stagflation cycle was part of a larger sequence of events called the Nixon Shock.

Responding to increasing inflation in 1971, President Richard Nixon imposed wage and price controls and surcharges on imports. This created a perfect-storm condition where, when the 1973 oil crisis hit, those surcharges on imports made prices at the gas pump — and across many U.S. industries — skyrocket to then-record prices. The rising prices helped lead to a wage-price spiral, where inflation led to workers asking for higher wages, which led to more inflation, and so on.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat the inflation of the early-70s, but this only created a recession and high unemployment without tamping down inflation. Thus, a prolonged economic stagnation accompanying inflation occurred — a stagflation situation.

While the economy recovered slightly in the late 1970s, inflation remained a problem for the rest of the decade. Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker eventually hiked interest rates to 20% by 1981, triggering a recession to get inflation under control.

Will Stagflation Happen Again?

There are debates about whether stagflation will or could occur again in the United States. There’s always a chance, but the circumstances need to be just right for it to happen.

Most recently, the economy was in a precarious situation in early 2022, with inflation running high after the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at a historic pace to combat it. The Fed was trying to curb inflation with the hope of a soft landing, in which an economy slows enough that prices stop rising quickly but not so slowly that it sparks a recession.

As of July 2024, inflation has moderated, and the economy has not slipped into a recession – but things can always change. So, the economy has not, so far, seen widespread stagnation, and inflation has come down – it appears that stagflation has been avoided.

While no one can predict the future, it stands to reason that events that have happened in the past can happen again. Stagflation may occur again, but this doesn’t have to be a dire situation as long as you prepare your financial situation.

How Can Stagflation Impact Investors?

Economic stagnation can have several impacts on investors. Firstly, it can lead to lower returns on investment as companies are less likely to grow and expand in a stagnant economy. This can lead to investors becoming more risk-averse as they seek out investments that are more likely to provide stability and income.

Secondly, stagnation can also lead to higher levels of unemployment, which can, in turn, lead to social unrest and political instability. This can make it more difficult for companies to operate in a given country and lead to investors losing confidence in the economy.

A slowdown of economic activity lasting several months sounds like it can only be a bad thing. But a recession does not necessarily mean the death knell for your finances. For some investors, there are, perhaps surprisingly, compelling strategies to consider when the market is down. Volatility may allow investors to buy low and then make appreciable gains as the market corrects itself.

Recommended: How to Invest During Inflation

The Takeaway

Stagflation occurs when an economy experiences simultaneous high inflation and high unemployment. It’s a situation that often leads to decreased spending by consumers and businesses, which can further stall economic growth and investment returns.

Stagflation has occurred before in the U.S. — notably during the Nixon Shock of the early 1970s — and there is no reason to think it won’t happen again at some point.

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What Is Fibonacci Retracement in Trading?

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How Does Fibonacci Retracement Work

Support and Resistance

What Does a Fibonacci Retracement Do?

What Is a Fibonacci Extension?

Limitations of Fibonacci Retracement

Fibonacci Retracements and Trading

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FAQ

How accurate is Fibonacci retracement?

What are the advantages of using Fibonacci retracement?

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What Is Stagflation & Will It Happen Again?

What Is Stagflation?

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