Should You Pull Money Out of the Stock Market?
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When markets are volatile, and you start to see your portfolio shrink, there may be an impulse to pull your money out and put it somewhere safe — but acting on that desire may actually expose you to a higher level of risk. In fact, there’s a whole field of research devoted to investor behavior, and the financial consequences of following your emotions (hint: the results are less than ideal).
A better strategy might be to anticipate your own natural reactions when markets drop, or when there’s a stock market crash, and wait to make investment choices based on more rational thinking (or even a set of rules you’ve set up for yourself in advance). After all, for many investors — especially those with longer time horizons — time in the market often beats timing the stock market. Here’s an overview of factors investors might weigh when deciding whether to keep money in the stock market.
Key Points
• Acting on emotions during market volatility may expose investors to higher risk and potentially lead to missed opportunities.
• Time in the market often beats timing the market, especially for investors with a longer time horizon.
• Legitimate reasons to sell investments include reaching a financial goal, needing cash for a near-term expense, or a change in an investment’s fundamentals.
• Selling based on fear can result in locking in losses and missing potential market rebounds.
• Alternatives to selling everything include rebalancing a portfolio, reviewing diversification, and reassessing long-term asset allocation.
Why Market Volatility Can Be So Stressful
An emotion-guided approach to the stock market, whether it’s the sudden offloading or purchasing of stocks, can stem from an attempt to predict the short-term movements in the market.
This approach is called timing the market. And while the notion of trying to predict the perfect time to buy or sell is a familiar one, investors are also prone to specific behaviors or biases that can expose them to further risk of losses.
When markets experience a sharp decline, some investors might feel tempted to give in to FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt). Investors might assume that by selling now they’re shielding themselves from further losses.
This logic, however, presumes that investing in a down market means the market will continue to go down, which — given the volatility of prices and the impossibility of knowing the future — may or may not be the case.
Focusing on temporary declines might compel some investors to make hasty decisions that they may later regret. After all, over time, markets tend to correct.
Likewise, when the market is moving upwards, investors can sometimes fall victim to what’s known as FOMO (fear of missing out) — buying under the assumption that today’s growth is a sign of tomorrow’s continued boom. That strategy is not guaranteed to yield success either.
The Case for Staying Invested: Time in the Market
Whether you should sell your assets and pull money out of the market will depend on an investor’s time horizon, or, the length of time they aim to hold an investment before selling.
Many industry studies have shown that time in the market is typically a wiser approach versus trying to time the stock market or give in to panic selling.
One such groundbreaking study by Brad Barber and Terence Odean was called, “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors.”
It was published in April 2000 in the Journal of Finance, and it was one of the first studies to quantify the gap between market returns and investor returns.
• Market returns are simply the average return of the market itself over a specific period of time.
• Investor returns, however, are what the average investor tends to reap — and investor returns are significantly lower, the study found, particularly among those who trade more often.
In other words, when investors try to time the market by selling on the dip and buying on the rise, they may actually lose out.
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The Biggest Risk of Selling: Missing the Market’s Best Days
By contrast, keeping money in the market for a long period of time can help cut the risk of short-term dips or declines in stock pricing. Staying put despite periods of volatility, for some investors, could be a sound strategy.
An investor’s time horizon may play a significant role in determining whether or not they might want to get out of the stock market. Generally, the longer a period of time an investor has to ride out the market, the less they may want to fret about their portfolio during upheaval.
Compare, for instance, the scenario of a 25-year-old who has decades to make back short-term losses versus someone who is about to retire and needs to begin taking withdrawals from their investment accounts.
And by staying invested, investors will experience both downturns and upswings. If they do sell, though, they’d have locked in their losses and could miss out on a potential market recovery.
3 Legitimate Reasons to Sell Your Investments
There are some reasonable situations in which an investor might sell their investments and walk away from the markets. Those could include the following.
You’ve Reached Your Financial Goal
If you’ve reached your financial goal, whatever that is, you may very well sleep better at night by taking your money out of the market and holding cash, though some investors may want to keep at least some money invested in one way or another. Again, this depends completely upon whether you’ve reached your goal, and don’t have any others that you may be working toward.
You Need to Cash for a Near-term Expense
If you need some cash to make a big purchase like a home or a vehicle, or maybe even for an emergency, you could consider the possibility of selling some of your investments. This may set you back a bit in reaching your goals, but the more immediate need may be more pressing.
The Investment’s Fundamentals Have Changed
It may also be time to sell if an investment’s fundamentals have changed. For instance, if you own several shares of Stock X, and Stock X’s revenue has taken a large dip for several consecutive quarters due to its products losing market share, it may be time to reallocate. There can be many reasons that could affect the investment’s fundamentals, and any one of them could be cause to sell.
The Downsides of Selling Based on Fear
There are a few disadvantages to pulling cash out of the market during a downturn.
You Could Lock in Your Losses
First, as discussed earlier, there’s the risk of locking in losses if you sell your holdings too quickly. It’s as simple as that: Selling your investments based on an emotional, fear-based reaction to the markets could mean you lock in a negative return.
It’s Nearly Impossible to Time the Market Correctly
While you could lock in your losses, you could, again, miss a potential rebound as well. Locking in losses and then losing out on gains basically acts as a double loss. When you realize certain losses, as when you realize gains, you will likely have to deal with certain tax consequences.
And while moving to cash may feel safe, because you’re unlikely to see sudden declines in your cash holdings, the reality is that keeping money in cash increases the risk of inflation.
Alternatives to Selling Everything
Here’s an overview of some alternatives to getting out of the stock market:
1. Rebalance Your Portfolio
Investors could choose to rotate some of their investments into less risky assets (i.e,. those that aren’t correlated with market volatility). Gold, silver, and bonds are often thought of as some of the safe havens that investors first flock to during times of uncertainty.
By rebalancing a portfolio so fewer holdings are impacted by market volatility, investors might reduce the risk of loss.
Reassessing where to allocate one’s assets is no simple task and, if done too rashly, could lead to losses in the long run. So, it may be helpful for investors to speak with a financial professional before making a big investment change that’s driven by the news of the day.
Sometimes, astute investors also choose to rebalance their portfolio in a downturn — by buying new stocks. It may be possible — if challenging — to profit from new trends that sometimes emerge during a financial crisis.
It’s worth noting that this investment strategy doesn’t involve pulling money out of the stock market, it just means selling some stocks to buy others. Also, for newer investors or those with low risk tolerance, attempting this strategy might not be a desirable option.
2. Review Your Diversification
Instead of shifting investments into safe haven assets, like precious metals, some investors prefer to cultivate a well-diversified portfolio from the get-go.
In this case, there’d be less need to rotate funds towards less risky investments during a decline, as the portfolio would already offer enough diversification to help mitigate the risks of market volatility.
3. Reassess Your Long-term Asset Allocation
During downturns, it could be worthwhile for investors to examine their asset allocations — or, the amount of money an investor holds in each asset type.
If an investor holds stocks in industries that have been struggling and may continue to struggle due to floundering demand, for whatever reason, they may opt to sell some of the stocks that are declining in value.
Even if such holdings get sold at a loss, the investor could then put money earned from the sale of these stocks towards safe haven assets, potentially gaining back their recent losses. Whenever considering a bigger shift, however, it can be wise to discuss options with a financial advisor.
The Takeaway
Pulling money out of the market during a downturn is a natural impulse for many investors. After all, everyone wants to avoid losses. But attempting to time the market (when there’s no crystal ball) can be risky and stressful. For many investors, especially investors with a longer time horizon, keeping money in the stock market may carry advantages over time.
One approach to investing is to establish long-term investment goals and then strive to stay the course, even when facing market headwinds. As always, when it comes to investing in the stock market, there’s no guarantee of increasing returns. So, individual investors will want to examine their personal economic needs and short-term and future financial goals before deciding when and how to invest.
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FAQ
In general, should I sell my stocks when the market is down?
Investors can sell their investments at any time, including when the market is down. Whether they should sell or not will depend on their goals and investment strategy, but generally, it’s likely more in line with most strategies to hold investments through downturns.
When is it smart to pull out of stocks?
It may be wise to pull out of stocks when you reach your financial goals, need cash for a short-term expense, or when a stock’s fundamentals have changed.
What are the tax implications of selling stocks?
Selling stocks triggers a taxable event, and investors will have a tax liability related to their capital gains. The rate will depend, in part, on how long they held the stock.
How long does it take to get my money after I sell investments?
There may be a short waiting period between when you get your money after you sell your investments. The length depends on the type of investment and your brokerage, but generally, it could take a day or two.
Instead of selling, should I invest more during a downturn?
One strategy during a market downturn includes buying more investments, which is sometimes called “buying the dip.” Some investors think of it as buying investments at a discount as values go down from previous highs.
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Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.
Tax Information: This article provides general background information only and is not intended to serve as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for legal counsel. You should consult your own attorney and/or tax advisor if you have a question requiring legal or tax advice.
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