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Guide to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Investing

What Is ESG?

ESG, which stands for environmental, social, and governance factors, refers to non-financial criteria that investors can use to determine whether companies are socially and environmentally responsible.

ESG investing is considered a form of sustainable or impact investing, but the term itself is more specific to emphasize that companies must focus on positive results in these three areas.

There is, however, no universally shared set of ESG criteria used by all investors or financial firms to evaluate a company’s soundness or risk along these lines. Rather, investors must learn which standards a certain fund or stock adheres to before choosing to invest.

Even so, there has been growing interest in ESG strategies in the last decade, as many of these funds have shown themselves to offer competitive returns vs. traditional strategies.

What Is ESG Investing?

As discussed, investors use ESG criteria to screen potential investments; if a business’s operations don’t follow ESG standards, investors may avoid putting money into the company. In that sense, ESG investing can be seen as a type of socially responsible investing.

But, as mentioned above, there is no universal set of standards for what makes a company ESG friendly. Companies committed to ESG operations may publish sustainability reports to give investors some insights into the firm. Additionally, third-party organizations have stepped in to create ESG scores for companies and funds based on their adherence to various ESG factors.

The following are some of the common factors that investors consider when evaluating the three different ESG areas.

Environmental

The environmental component of ESG criteria might include metrics on a company’s energy emissions, waste, and water usage. Investors may also focus on the risks and opportunities associated with the impacts of climate change on the company and its industry.

Some company information that environmentally conscious investors may evaluate include:

•   Pollution and carbon footprint

•   Water usage and conservation

•   Renewable energy integration (such as solar and wind)

•   Climate change policies

💡 Recommended: How to Invest in EV Stocks

Social

The social component of ESG generally describes the impact of a company’s relationships with people and society. Factors as varied as corporate culture, commitment to diversity, and how much a company invests in local organizations or communities can impact socially conscious investors’ decisions on buying into a specific corporation.

Some other social factors can include:

•   Employee pay, benefits, and perks

•   Diversity, equity, and inclusion

•   Commitment to social justice causes

•   Ethical supply chains (e.g., no sweatshops, conflict-free minerals, etc.)

Governance

The governance component of ESG generally focuses on how the company is run. Investors want to know how the board of directors, company, and shareholders relate to one another.

Some additional governance factors that investors evaluate include:

•   Executive compensation, bonuses, and perks

•   Diversity of the board of directors and management team

•   Transparency in communications with shareholders

•   Rights and roles guaranteed to shareholders

How ESG Scores Work

ESG scores — sometimes called ESG ratings — are designed to measure a company’s performance based on specific environmental, social, and governance criteria. Investors can use them to assess a company’s success, risks, and opportunities concerning these three areas.

An ESG score is typically calculated by analyzing a company’s available data on environmental, social, and governance policies and practices using various sources, like SEC filings, government databases, and media reports.

A high ESG score means a company manages ESG risks better than its peers, while a low ESG score means the company has more unmanaged ESG risks. Evaluating a company’s ESG score, along with financial analysis, can give investors a better idea of the company’s long-term prospects.

Some of the most prominent ESG score providers are MSCI, Morningstar Sustainalytics, and S&P Global. But some financial firms conduct their own ESG evaluations and provide proprietary scores. Transparency into how the scores are calculated can vary.

ESG vs SRI vs Impact Investing

ESG investing is sometimes called sustainable investing, impact investing, or socially responsible investing (SRI). However, impact investing and socially responsible investing are often viewed differently than ESG investing.

Some of the differences between the three investment strategies are:

•   ESG investing focuses on a company or fund’s environmental, social, and governance practices and traditional financial analysis.

•   Socially responsible investing eliminates or selects investments according to specific ethical guidelines. Investors following an SRI strategy may avoid investing in companies related to gambling and other sin stocks, or they may avoid companies that cause damage to the natural environment — or both.

•   Impact investing is generally done by institutional investors and foundations. Impact investing focuses on making investments in companies or projects specifically designed to generate positive social or environmental impact.

In addition there is another designation investors may want to know, green investing refers to strategies that are purely focused on benefiting the environment.

Last, corporate social responsibility initiatives, or CSR refers to programs and initiatives that organizations may establish on their own. Often, these business decisions support socially responsible movements, like environmental sustainability, ethical labor practices, and social justice initiatives.

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Why Is ESG Investing Important?

ESG investing is important because it offers investors a way of putting their money into causes that are significant to them, with the hope of having a genuine impact via their investments in certain companies or funds. This is why ESG is often called impact investing, although true impact investing is a broader term, and refers to a range of companies that may or may not be focused on sustainable issues.

Whether or not companies or funds that embrace ESG strategies deliver on the promised goals is a matter for investors to decide via due diligence. As noted above, without a commonly agreed-upon set of standards and some form of accountability, it’s difficult to ascertain which companies are truly having an impact.

Are ESG Strategies Profitable?

Nonetheless, investors have continued to be interested in ESG strategies. In 2021, socially responsible U.S. mutual funds saw record inflows of some $70 billion — a 36% increase over 2020. ESG funds saw substantial outflows through 2021 and most of 2022. But sustainable funds still managed to outperform non-sustainable funds through Q3 of 2022, despite challenging market conditions, according to Morningstar research as of September 30, 2022.

During the third quarter of 2022, sustainable large-cap funds netted $525 million, versus their unsustainable equity peers, who lost $25 billion that period.

Two other studies from Morningstar added to the evidence that funds which embrace socially responsible investing strategies tend to outperform conventional mutual funds.

Their “Sustainable Funds U.S. Landscape Report” from February 2022 found that “two thirds of sustainable offerings in the large-blend category topped the U.S. market index last year compared with 54% of all funds in the category.”

According to the report: “There are 5 times as many sustainable funds in the U.S. today than a decade ago, and 3 times more than five years ago.”

Types of ESG Investments

Investors can make ESG investments in the stocks and bonds of companies that adhere to ESG criteria or have high ESG scores. Other potential investment vehicles are mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with an ESG strategy.

Stocks

Buying stocks of companies with environmental, social, and governance commitments can be one way to start ESG investing. However, investors will often need to research companies that have ESG credibility or rely on third-party agencies that release ESG scores.

💡 Recommended: How to Analyze a Stock

Bonds

The bonds of corporations involved in ESG-friendly business practices can be a good option for investors interested in fixed-income securities. Green and climate bonds are bonds issued by companies to finance various environmentally-friendly projects and business operations.

Additionally, government bonds used to fund green energy projects can be an option for fixed-income investors. These bonds may come with tax incentives, making them a more attractive investment than traditional bonds.

💡 Recommended: How to Buy Bonds: A Guide for Beginners

Mutual Funds and ETFs

Investors who don’t want to pick individual stocks to invest in can always look to mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide exposure to ESG companies and investments.

A growing number of index funds invest in a basket of sustainable stocks and bonds. These funds allow investors to diversify their holdings by investing in one security.

However, not all ESG funds follow the same criteria and may focus on different aspects of environmental, social, and governance issues. Interested investors would do well to look under the hood of specific funds to evaluate their holdings and other criteria.

💡 Recommended: A Beginner’s Guide to Investing in Index Funds

Identifying ESG Companies

What is the best way to find an ESG company? There are a number of resources available for ESG investors, including proprietary tools that allow investors to search and/or evaluate different stocks based on specific criteria.

There are also a number of lists published by financial media companies that evaluate companies and funds according to ESG criteria.

Financial ratings firms like Morningstar publish regular research reports on different aspects of the ESG sector.

In addition, many industry firms and fund-providers have their own proprietary evaluation methods that investors might consider. Here are five of the biggest companies that provide ESG ratings, according to Fortune.com.

•   FTSE Russell: Publishes ESG ratings on 7,200 securities

•   ISS ESG: Provides ratings on 11,800 issuers and 25,000 funds

•   MSCI: Publishes ESG ratings for over 8,000 companies worldwide

•   Refinitiv: Calculates ESG scores on 11,800 companies

•   Sustainalytics: Publishes ESG ratings on more than 13,000 companies

Benefits of ESG Investing

ESG investing has several benefits, including:

•   Improving long-term financial performance: A growing body of evidence suggests that companies with solid ESG ratings may be good investments. They tend to outperform those with weaker ratings, both in share price performance and earnings growth.

•   Mitigating risk: ESG factors can help identify companies with poor governance practices or exposure to environmental and social risks, leading to financial losses.

•   Creating social and environmental impact: By investing in companies that are leading the way on environmental, social, and governance issues, investors can help drive positive change and make a positive impact on society.

These potential benefits are increasing the popularity of ESG investing. According to Bloomberg, global ESG assets may surpass $41 trillion by the end of 2022 and reach $50 trillion by 2025, up from $22.8 trillion in 2016.

Risks of ESG Investing

The main disadvantage of ESG strategies is that they limit the number of investments that people can consider. Thus, some investors may end up trading potential returns for the ability to invest according to their values.

In addition, ESG investments can sometimes come with higher costs, for example an ESG fund may have a higher expense ration vs. a traditional counterpart.

While there is a growing body of data regarding the performance of ESG indices and securities, it’s still a relatively new sector relative to more traditional investments.

Starting an ESG Investment Portfolio

If you’re interested in creating an ESG portfolio, you can start by contacting a financial advisor who can help you shape your investment strategy.

However, if you are ready to start investing and want to build a portfolio on your own, you can follow these steps:

•   Open a brokerage account: You will need to open a brokerage account and deposit money into it. Once your account is funded, you will be able to buy and sell stocks, mutual funds, and other securities.

•   Pick your assets: Decide what type of investment you want to make, whether in a stock of a company, an ESG-focused ETF or mutual fund, or bonds.

•   Do your research: It’s important to research the different companies and funds and find a diversified selection that fits your desires and priorities.

•   Invest: Once you’re ready, make your investment and then monitor your portfolio to ensure that the assets in your portfolio have a positive social and financial impact.

It is important to remember that you should diversify your portfolio by investing in various asset classes. Diversification will help to reduce your risk and maximize your returns.

ESG Investing Strategies

ESG investing can be different based on values and financial goals. It’s therefore essential to start with your investment goals and objectives when crafting an ESG investing strategy. Consider how ESG factors can help you achieve these goals.

It’s also crucial to understand the data and information available on ESG factors; this will vary by company and industry. When researching potential ESG investments, you want to make sure a company has a clear and publicly-available ESG policy and regularly discloses its ESG performance. Additionally, it can be helpful to look at third-party scores to determine a company’s ESG performance.

The Takeaway

In recent years, investor interest in sustainable investing strategies like ESG has grown. In addition, there is some data that suggests that ESG strategies may be just as effective as traditional strategies in terms of performance.

This is despite the fact that ESG criteria are inconsistent throughout the industry. There are a myriad different ways that companies can provide ESG-centered investments, but there aren’t industry-wide benchmarks for different criteria or success metrics.

Thus, it’s fair to say that there is no “right” way to invest in ESG companies. What matters most is that you have done your own research; you are comfortable with the companies you are investing in; and you believe in their ability to create long-term value.

Investors interested in making ESG investments can use the SoFi app to help. When you open an Active Invest account with SoFi Invest®, you can trade stocks and ETFs to build an ESG portfolio. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions (although operating expense ratios and other fees may apply to exchange-traded funds), and SoFi members have access to complimentary advice from financial professionals.

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

FAQ

What are the three pillars of ESG?

ESG stands for three areas that some companies strive to embrace by being proactive about the environment, supportive of social structures, and transparent and ethical in corporate leadership.

What are some examples of ESG investing?

There are countless ways to add ESG strategies to your portfolio: You can consider investing in green bonds, in companies that focus on environmentally supportive technologies, in funds that invest in a multitude of renewable energy companies, clean water initiatives, carbon sequestration, and more.

What is the difference between ESG and sustainability?

Sustainability is a broader term. Environmental, social, and governance factors may support sustainability in different ways: by limiting air or water pollution, by supporting fair labor practices, by insisting on transparency in corporate governance.


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SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): Investors should carefully consider the information contained in the prospectus, which contains the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, and other relevant information. You may obtain a prospectus from the Fund company’s website or by email customer service at https://sofi.app.link/investchat. Please read the prospectus carefully prior to investing.
Shares of ETFs must be bought and sold at market price, which can vary significantly from the Fund’s net asset value (NAV). Investment returns are subject to market volatility and shares may be worth more or less their original value when redeemed. The diversification of an ETF will not protect against loss. An ETF may not achieve its stated investment objective. Rebalancing and other activities within the fund may be subject to tax consequences.


Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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ESG, SRI, and Impact Investing Strategies: How Are They Different?

Impact investing is a broad category that includes a wide range of strategies; among them are two that are focused on the environment as well as social and governance issues: ESG (for environmental, social, and governance issues) and SRI (for socially responsible investing).

Investors who are interested in making an impact with their investing dollars may want to consider funds that embrace ESG or SRI strategies, but impact investing can include other goals as well (e.g., investing in or avoiding certain industries or sectors, or goals).

While there are ways in which these three strategies overlap, it’s important to understand the distinctions as they pertain to your own investing goals.

Key Points

•   Impact investing refers to strategies that focus on having a measurable impact on certain companies, industries, or sectors.

•   Impact investing is a broad category that can include a range of strategies, including ESG (environmental, social, and governance) and SRI (socially responsible investing), as well as others.

•   As investor interest in ESG and SRI strategies has grown, so have inflows to funds that adhere to certain standards.

•   Despite investor interest, standards and metrics vary widely when it comes to ESG, SRI, or any other type of impact investing.

Understanding ESG, SRI, and Impact Investing

These days, numerous companies seek to meet certain ethical, social, environmental, or other standards. While some criteria have been inspired by the United Nations’ Principles for Responsible Investment, or the U.N.’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals, investors need to bear in mind that the definition of ESG, SRI, and impact investing can vary from company to company, from country to country.

Nonetheless, investor interest in these strategies continues to grow. In fact, 67% of asset owners (e.g. institutional investors) say that over the last five years ESG standards have become even more critical to the investment process, according to a 2023 survey by Morningstar, the fund research and rating company.

As a result a number of companies have developed proprietary screening tools and scoring methods to help investors assess different investments, including stocks, bonds, ETFs, and more.

Defining ESG, SRI, and Impact Investing

That being said, the lack of clearcut ESG and SRI standards dates back to the very beginnings of these strategies.

As early as the 18th century, religious groups like the Methodists would take a financial stand against certain societal problems (e.g., the slave trade or alcohol and tobacco manufacturing) by not investing in related organizations. This values-based approach became known over time as impact investing.

Today, ESG and SRI investing can be considered modern offshoots of that philosophy — but typically with a focus on investing proactively in certain companies or sectors with the goal of supporting specific changes or outcomes.

It’s still possible to invest in ESG and SRI strategies that explicitly avoid certain industries, companies, or types of products (e.g., avoiding companies known to use child labor).

Impact investing tends to be used interchangeably with the term values investing, as well as ESG and SRI investing, but again these strategies have different aims and standards.

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Impact Investing

The goal of impact investing is for investments to have a positive, measurable impact in a given area. That might mean avoiding industries (e.g. alcohol or weapons), or investing directly in social, environmental, political, or other concerns.

Some mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may utilize impact investing strategies, but impact investing may also involve private funds, such as closed-end private equity and venture capital funds. This is partly because some public companies have to prioritize financial goals to meet shareholder expectations or earnings forecasts, and impact goals alone may not suffice (more on profitability below).

Following are some examples of impact investing categories:

Impact Category

Metrics

Environmental

•   Trees planted

•   Solar panels installed

•   Greenhouse gas emissions limited or reduced

Women’s Empowerment

•   Female founders supported

•   Number of female employees

Jobs and Education

•   Jobs created

•   Income creation

•   Access and enrollment targets

Affordable Housing

•   People housed

•   Number of units built

Essential Services

•   Individuals in need of bank accounts

•   Patients served in medical facilities

ESG Investing

ESG stands for environmental, social, and governance factors. It’s a set of criteria that can help investors evaluate companies according to how well they uphold or meet relevant criteria, in addition to financial concerns.

ESG investing is considered a form of sustainable or impact investing, but companies that embrace this term theoretically must focus on positive results in those three areas.

When ESG strategies started gaining more attention in the 1960s, some investors assumed ESG investing was primarily about values and ethics. Over time investors come to realize that ESG strategies may also impact a company’s financials. For example, ESG reporting can help illuminate potential risks to company performance, not only progress toward sustainability goals.

Still, adoption of ESG reporting and analysis has been slow owing to a lack of consistency around standards and metrics for meeting these criteria. While the SEC adopted new rules in early 2024 to help “standardize climate-related disclosures by public companies and in public offerings,” it soon stayed those rules when a number of groups filed petitions for review in multiple courts of appeals.

Overall, there is still quite a bit of variance in these standards.

However, the table below shows some common ways to assess a company’s adherence to ESG standards:

Environmental

Social

Governance

Energy consumption Community engagement and support Diversity in the board of directors
Waste and pollution Human and labor rights Management performance
Climate change mitigation and adaptation Health and safety impacts on products, local areas, etc. Executive compensation
Conservation and protection of biodiversity Shareholder relations Corruption
Resource management, such as water usage and sanitation Employee relations Disclosures and transparency

SRI

Socially responsible investing, or SRI, is another impact investing category that focuses on social and ethical issues. SRI mutual funds were among the first values-based investment products on the market.

While SRI is similar to ESG, it’s more broadly defined. Unlike ESG investing, which revolves around a set of standards, SRI doesn’t have clearly defined criteria, and investment strategies vary depending on the company.

SRI-focused investors might choose to avoid certain investments or industries, or choose companies that specifically work on or donate to certain causes. Investors may need to evaluate companies and funds based on their own criteria.
SRI investing strategies can include a focus on one or more of the following:

•   Alternatives to fossil fuels (e.g., clean energy like wind or solar technologies)

•   Avoiding so-called vice industries like alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, gambling

•   Investing in female or minority-led companies, or companies with a social justice mission

•   Avoiding companies relating to arms manufacturing and the military

•   Investing in companies that adhere to human rights standards

•   Supporting specific environmental outcomes, e.g. mitigating air and water pollution, safer agricultural practices, and so on

Is Sustainable Investing Different from ESG, SRI, and Impact Strategies?

Sustainable investing strategies can encompass SRI as well as ESG strategies. And while some investors use sustainable investing and impact investing interchangeably, it’s important to remember that not all impact investing is sustainable in nature.

Can SRI or ESG Investing Be Profitable?

The performance of SRI and ESG strategies versus their conventional peers have long been subject to debate. Nonetheless, the value of assets allocated to ETFs with an ESG focus has grown steadily in the last two decades. As of November 2023, according to data from Statista, the value of global assets in ESG funds was $480 billion — a substantial jump from $5 billion in 2006.

Investors interested in SRI and ESG strategies may want to examine the FTSE4Good Index Series: a compilation of stock indexes that track companies that seek to meet certain criteria or achieve certain environmental, social, or corporate governance goals. Morningstar has also developed a sustainability rating system, in use since 2016.

The Takeaway

Investors may want to bear in mind that, with the steady growth of ESG and SRI strategies in the last couple of decades, investment opportunities that focus on having an impact on the world are likely to expand.

In addition, the underlying goal of these strategies is to make a difference and potentially see a profit as well. That said, impact strategies overall don’t reduce investment risk factors; all types of impact investing, including ESG and SRI strategies, are subject to the same economic and market risk factors as conventional strategies.

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SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
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Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): Investors should carefully consider the information contained in the prospectus, which contains the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, and other relevant information. You may obtain a prospectus from the Fund company’s website or by email customer service at https://sofi.app.link/investchat. Please read the prospectus carefully prior to investing.
Shares of ETFs must be bought and sold at market price, which can vary significantly from the Fund’s net asset value (NAV). Investment returns are subject to market volatility and shares may be worth more or less their original value when redeemed. The diversification of an ETF will not protect against loss. An ETF may not achieve its stated investment objective. Rebalancing and other activities within the fund may be subject to tax consequences.


Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

Disclaimer: The projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Understanding the Presidential Election Cycle Theory

The Presidential Election Cycle Theory suggests that the stock market follows a pattern that correlates with a U.S. president’s four-year term.

The first two years of a term tend to be the weakest for stocks, according to the theory, as the president focuses on fulfilling campaign promises, but the market improves in the latter half of a term as the president pumps up the economy ahead of a new election.

Some historical stock market data does tend to sync up with the Presidential Election Cycle Theory, but past performance is not indicative of future results.

And market researchers and investors tend to be doubtful of the strategy, chalking it up to statistical coincidence as opposed to a real sign of a U.S. president’s power over the market.

They argue that company earnings, global economic data, and Federal Reserve monetary policy tend to be bigger influences on stock prices.

What Is the Election Cycle Theory?

Yale Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac has data going back to 1833 in order to study the Presidential Election Cycle Theory. Below are the average stock market percentage gains in the four calendar years after a presidential election, according to the almanac’s 2020 edition.

Hirsch used the Dow Jones Industrial Average to track stock market performance after 1896 and other stock gauges for the years prior:

Postelection year: 3%
Midterm year: 4%
Preelection year: 10.2%
Election year: 6%

In a Wall Street Journal interview in November 2019, however, Jeffrey Hirsch, the son of Yale Hirsch, said that not all the historical data is relevant. Market observers have argued that going further back in history, U.S. presidents had even less sway over the stock market than in current times.

But according to Hirsch, the theory that the stock market is strongest in the third year of a presidential term has held up.

The almanac states that since 1943, in the third year of the presidential election cycle, both the Dow and S&P 500 have been up 15% on average. Meanwhile, since 1971, the Nasdaq indices have climbed 28.8% on average in the third year.

That’s because “incumbent administrations shamelessly attempt to massage the economy so voters will keep them in power,” the almanac states.

Stimulative fiscal measures designed to increase disposable income and a sense of well-being in the voting public have included:

•   Increases in federal budget deficits, government spending, and Social Security benefits

•   Interest rate cuts on government loans

•   Speedups of projected funding

Other points in the Presidential Election Cycle Theory:

•   Wars, recessions, and bear markets tend to occur in first two years; prosperity and bull markets in the second two years

•   The market performed better in election years when a sitting president is running. Since 1949, the Dow climbed 10.1% during election years when the incumbent is up for reelection vs. 5.3% in all election years and 1.6% in years with an open field

•   Times when the stock market rose between August and October in a presidential election year, the incumbent political party has retained power 85% of the time since 1936

•   Markets tend to be stronger when the incumbent party in power wins

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Does History Back Up the Presidential Election Cycle Theory?

The Presidential Election Cycle Theory hasn’t held up well in recent presidential administrations. The S&P 500 posted a strong gain of 19% in 2017, the first year of President Donald Trump’s term. The market also surged 29% in 2019, Trump’s third year and the best annual performance of his administration.

In each of President Barack Obama’s two terms, the first year saw the best annual performance, with the S&P 500 rallying 23% in 2009 and 30% in 2013.

Separately, the stock market has tended to rise more than fall, making the case that charting patterns with the election cycle may have more to do with coincidence. Since 1833, equity prices have risen in 115 calendar years and fallen in 70, data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows.

Barron’s also noted in November 2019, citing data from Ned Davis Research, that the weakest time in a four-year presidential cycle has historically actually been September of the pre-election year to May of the election year. Once the winner is determined, the market tends to rally regardless of political party.

Other political factors could also be in play, such as midterm elections. Barron’s also wrote in 2018 that the stock market’s performance during midterm election years hasn’t been stellar. Since 1942, the S&P 500 has gained 6% on average in midterm years, compared with 9.1% during the average year, the article stated, citing Ned Davis Research.

What About This Time Around?

Election Day is November 5, 2024, and the new four-year presidential term will start on January 20, 2025.

In the past, uncertainty over the outcome of a presidential election has led to declines in the stock market. In 2000, confusion over hanging chads in the Florida ballot count meant the race between George W. Bush and Al Gore didn’t come to a swift conclusion.

Investor uncertainty over the outcome caused the stock market to plummet. Markets rebounded after the Supreme Court decision that ultimately resulted in a Bush win.

The conventional wisdom on Wall Street has been that a split government usually leads to strength in the stock market, as the division in power will lead to less ambitious policy changes.

So the potential outcome of a Democrat in the White House and both parties splitting Congress could lead to gains for the Dow and S&P 500. That said, business publications have reported that there is little evidence to back this idea up.

In the 45 years that the same party controlled Congress and the presidency, the S&P 500’s average return was 7.45%, the Wall Street Journal found. In the 46 years power was split, the average return was 7.26%. The index actually slightly outperformed when control of the presidency and Congress was unified under one party.

💡 Quick Tip: Automated investing can be a smart choice for those who want to invest but may not have the knowledge or time to do so. An automated investing platform can offer portfolio options that may suit your risk tolerance and goals (but investors have little or no say over the individual securities in the portfolio).

What Does The Presidential Election Cycle Mean for Investors?

The history of U.S. presidential elections may not be a big enough sample set for making investment decisions.

An array of factors beyond presidential election cycles influences share prices. Investors typically monitor company earnings, global and U.S. economic data, events like natural disasters and pandemics, and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Separately, periods of uncertainty—whether in monetary or fiscal policy—can also shape market performance.

Annual returns also don’t capture the stock volatility that could have happened during the year. For instance, the stock market rallied in 2020, but it also entered into a bear market, a drop of 20% or more, in the first half amid investor worries over the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the global economy.

The Takeaway

The Presidential Election Cycle Theory states that the stock market’s performance improves in the four-year terms of US presidents as they gear up for reelection. Some investors say, however, that other factors, like corporate earnings and central bank policy, are bigger influences on share prices.

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SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
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Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Calculating Investments Payback Period

Calculating an Investment’s Payback Period

Key Points

•   The payback period is the estimated amount of time it will take to recoup an investment or to break even. Generally, the longer the payback period, the higher the risk.

•   To calculate the payback period using the averaging method, you divide the Initial Investment by Yearly Cash Flow.

•   Equity firms may calculate the payback period for potential investment in startups and other companies to ensure capital recoupment and understand risk-reward ratios.

•   Downsides of using the payback period include that it does take into account the time value of money or other ways an investment might bring value.

What Is a Payback Period?

The payback period is the amount of time it will take to recoup the initial cost of an investment, or to reach its break-even point. Considering the ups and down of various market factors — e.g. the crypto winter or the impact of higher-than-usual interest rates — being able to gauge the payback period is one of the most important calculations for investors when planning investments and returns.

The payback period can help investors decide between different investments that may have a lot of similarities, as they’ll often want to choose the one that will pay back in the shortest amount of time. The longer money remains locked up in an investment without earning a return, the more time an investor must wait until they can access that cash again, and the more risk there is of losing the initial investment capital.

Using the Payback Period

The payback period can apply to personal investments such as solar panels or property maintenance, or investments in equipment or other assets that a company might consider acquiring. Often an investment that requires a large amount of capital upfront generates steady or increasing returns over time, although there is also some risk that the returns won’t turn out as hoped or predicted.

Calculating payback periods is especially important for startup companies with limited capital that want to be sure they can recoup their money without going out of business. Companies also use the payback period to select between different investment opportunities or to help them understand the risk-reward ratio of a given investment.

Knowing the payback period is helpful if there’s a risk of a project ending in the future. For example, if a company might lose a lease or a contract, the sooner they can recoup any investments they’re making into their business the less risk they have of losing that capital.

Any particular project or investment can have a short or long payback period. A short period means the investment breaks even or gets paid back in a relatively short amount of time by the cash flow generated by the investment, whereas a long period means the investment takes longer to recoup. How investors understand that period will depend on their time horizon.

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How to Calculate the Payback Period

Prior to calculating the payback period of a particular investment, one might consider what their maximum payback period would be to move forward with the investment. This will help give them some parameters to work with when making investment decisions. If the calculated payback period is less than the desired period, this may be a safer investment.

In simple terms, the payback period is calculated by dividing the cost of the investment by the annual cash flow until the cumulative cash flow is positive, which is the payback year. Payback period is generally expressed in years.

There are two easy basis payback period formulas:

Payback Period Formula (Averaging Method)

Payback Period = Initial Investment / Yearly Cash Flow

Using the averaging method, the initial amount of the investment is divided by annualized cash flows an investment is projected to generate. This works well if cash flows are predictable or expected to be consistent over time, but otherwise this method may not be very accurate.

Example of Payback Period

If a company makes an investment of $1,000,000 in new equipment which is expected to generate $250,000 in revenue per year, the calculation would be:

$1,000,000 / $250,000 = 4-year payback period

If they have another option to invest $1,000,000 into equipment which they expect to generate $280,000 in revenue per year, the calculation would be:

$1,000,000 / $280,000 = 3.57-year payback period

Since the second option has a shorter payback period, this may be a better choice for the company.

Payback Formula (Subtraction Method)

Payback Period = the last year with negative cash flow + (Amount of cash flow at the end of that year / Cash flow during the year after that year)

Using the subtraction method, one starts by subtracting individual annual cash flows from the initial investment amount, and then does the division. This method works better if cash flows vary from year to year.

Example of Payback Period Using the Subtraction Method

A company is considering making a $550,000 investment in new equipment. The expected cash flows are as follows:

Year 1 = $75,000
Year 2 = $140,000
Year 3 = $200,000
Year 4 = $110,000
Year 5 = $60,000

Calculation:

Year 0 : -$550,000
Year 1 : -$550,000 + $75,000 = -$475,000
Year 2 : -$475,000 + $140,000 = -$335,000
Year 3 : -$335,000 + $200,000 = -$135,000
Year 4 : -$135,000 + $110,000 = -$25,000
Year 5 : -$25,000 + $60,000 = $35,000

Year 4 is the last year with negative cash flow, so the payback period equation is:

4 + ($25,000 / $60,000) = 4.42

So the payback period is 4.42 years.

Other factors

Investors might also choose to add depreciation and taxes into the equation, to account for any lost value of an investment over time.

Benefits of Using the Payback Period

The payback period is simple to understand and calculate. It can provide individuals and companies with valuable insights into potential investments, and help them decide which option provides the best return on investment (ROI). It also helps with assessing the risk of different investments. Advantages include:

•  Easily understandable

•  Simple to calculate

•  Tool for risk assessment

•  Helps with comparing and choosing investment options

•  Provides insights for financial planning

•  Other calculations, such as net present value and internal rate of return, don’t

•  look at the amount of time it takes to recoup an investment

Downsides of Using the Payback Period

Although the payback period can be a useful calculation for individuals and companies considering and comparing investments, it has some downsides. The calculation only looks at the time period up until the initial investment will be recouped. It doesn’t consider the earnings the investment will bring in after that, which may either be higher or lower, and could determine whether it makes sense as a long-term investment.

If earnings will continue to increase, a longer payback period might be acceptable. If earnings might decrease after a certain number of years, the investment may not be a good idea even if it breaks even quickly. On the other hand, an investment with a short lifespan could need replacement shortly after its payback period, making it a potentially poor investment.

The payback period doesn’t take into consideration other ways an investment might bring value, such as partnerships or brand awareness. This can result in investors overlooking the long-term benefits of the investment since they’re too focused on short-term ROI.

The payback period equation also doesn’t take into account the effects an investment might have on the rest of the company’s operations. For instance, new equipment might require a significant amount of expensive power, or might not be able to run as often as it would need to in order to reach the payback goal.

Another limitation of the payback period is that it doesn’t take the time value of money (TVM) into account. The time value of money is the idea that cash will be worth more in the future than it is worth today, due to the amount of interest that it can generate. Not only does this apply to the initial capital put into an investment, but it’s also important because as an investment generates returns, that cash can then be reinvested into something else that earns interest or income. This is another reason that a shorter payback period makes for a more attractive investment.

The Takeaway

You can use the payback period in your own life when making large purchase decisions and consider their opportunity cost. Understanding the way that companies calculate their payback period is also helpful to determine their financial viability and whether it makes sense for you to invest in them as part of your portfolio.

Whether you’re new to investing or already have a portfolio started, there are many tools available to help you be successful. One great online investing tool is SoFi Invest® online brokerage platform. The investing platform lets you research and track your favorite stocks and ETFs. You can easily buy and sell with just a few clicks on your phone, and view your portfolio on one simple dashboard.

You can choose from either active or automated investing. With active investing, you can hand select each individual stock or ETF you wish to add to your portfolio. Using automated investing, you can choose from groups of pre-selected stocks. There are additional tools in the app to set personal financial goals and add all your banking and investment accounts so you can see all of your information in one place.

If you have any questions or need help getting started, SoFi has a team of professional financial advisors available to help you reach your personal financial goals.

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SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.
1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.
2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.
For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

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