Understanding Altcoin Season: Trends, Triggers, and Strategies
Altcoin season is a term used to describe a period in the cryptocurrency markets during which altcoins, or a significant percentage of them, rally and see their prices increase.
Altcoin itself is a sort of catch-all term that refers to cryptocurrencies aside from Bitcoin; they’re “alternate” coins, in other words. Since Bitcoin is the biggest and most popular crypto on the market, almost all other cryptos are seemingly in a classification of their own: Altcoins.
Key Points
• Altcoin season is a market period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin.
• The Altcoin Season Index measures top altcoins’ performance, with 75-100% outperformance signaling an altcoin season.
• Bitcoin’s price stabilization after a major rally can precede an altcoin season.
• New narratives and retail investor interest, reflected in social media, can trigger altcoin seasons.
• Managing risk and avoiding FOMO are crucial strategies during altcoin seasons.
What Is Altcoin Season?
Altcoin season is a stretch in which altcoin appreciation outperforms Bitcoin, or a significant number of altcoins simultaneously see their prices increase. Or, put another way, altcoin season happens when there’s steady outperformance of tokens and coins that aren’t Bitcoin. They could last weeks, or even months.
How Altcoin Season Differs from Bitcoin Cycles
Cryptocurrencies tend to experience market cycles, similar to those seen in the broader economy and even in the stock market. That means that prices, productivity, or other metrics experience periods of expansion (value growth) or contraction (value decline). The same happens in the crypto markets.
Altcoin season, then, can happen when Bitcoin reaches the bottom of one of those cycles, effectively paving the way for altcoins to experience a period of expansion or growth.
However, there’s no guarantee that every runup in Bitcoin will turn into a downturn later, or that altcoins will start outperforming the original crypto. In fact, it’s not uncommon for all cryptos to rise together, as excitement about the sector grows. As such, there can be pros and cons to owning crypto.
The Role of Bitcoin Dominance in Market Trends
Bitcoin is the oldest and largest cryptocurrency. So, it tends to set the tone for the markets, and can move the currents and momentum within them, so to speak. When there is a big movement or change with Bitcoin, that is generally reflected in the markets, and that filters down to altcoins, which include different types of cryptocurrencies.
So, following a Bitcoin rally, it’s possible altcoins could also rally (though not guaranteed). They could both then see a staggered cooling period.
Why Do Altcoins Often Follow Bitcoin’s Price Movements?
There are a few different theories for why altcoin season happens, and why altcoins tend to follow Bitcoin’s price movements. Here are some of the most common.
Expectations of Future Growth
After a large runup of Bitcoin, crypto-holder’s projected growth in the price of other crypto assets might change.
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The Altcoin Season Index: Your #1 Indicator
Remember this: You can’t determine altcoin season just by looking at the price of altcoins, Bitcoin, or any other cryptocurrency in isolation. Perhaps the best gauge is the Altcoin Season Index.
How This Key Indicator Works
The Altcoin Season Index is a crypto market indicator, similar to many other market-focused metrics out there, that helps market participants get a sense of whether or not altcoins are outperforming or seeing more appreciation than Bitcoin at any given time. It is, in other words, a tool to measure the prevailing winds of the crypto market.
The Index itself looks at the top altcoins on the market (with the exception of crypto’s stablecoins), measures their collective performance over a period of the previous 90 days, and produces an index score that reports the percentage of altcoins (altcoins tracked by the Index) that are or have performed better than Bitcoin during the tracking period.
How to Read the Index’s Signals
As noted, the Index produces a percentage that helps market participants gauge whether they’re witnessing an “altcoin season” play out. Depending on the percentage, or the signal, produced, the crypto market could be said to be either in a “Bitcoin season,” neutral, or in an “altcoin season.”
Specifically, here’s how those percentages break down:
• 0-25%: This means that less than a quarter of tracked altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, putting the market in a “Bitcoin season.”
• 26-74%: A solid amount of altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, but not an overwhelming amount. This is a “neutral” market.
• 75-100%: This indicates that the vast majority of altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin; the market is experiencing an “altcoin season.”
Where to Find the Live Index Data
Data related to the Altcoin Season Index can be found on a number of websites. A simple internet search should bring up plenty of places to access the live data.
3 Other Key Signs an Altcoin Season Might Be Starting
The Altcoin Season Index is a powerful tool to help crypto market participants gauge whether the market is, in fact, experiencing an Altcoin Season. But there are a few other key signs you can use to try and discern what’s happening.
Sign 1: Bitcoin’s Price Stabilizes After a Major Rally
One sign that may indicate an Altcoin Season is nigh is that Bitcoin starts to see a period of price stabilization, particularly after it rallies a bit. In the wake of the rally, Bitcoin prices may appreciate more slowly, or even fall or remain relatively stagnant. Altcoins, following the rally, could see a rally of their own, marking the beginning of an altcoin season.
Sign 2: New Narratives and Hype Cycles Emerge (e.g., DeFi, AI, GameFi)
Certain altcoins may see a period of appreciation that outperforms Bitcoin, too, if the market and news cycle is suddenly saturated with new, emerging narratives or hype cycles. These can take many forms, but may center around expanding or emerging AI or DeFI projects, among other things. Many of those projects may have their own related altcoins, which see value appreciation as a part of the hype cycle.
That enthusiasm may also spill over into other altcoins, sparking a rally.
Sign 3: Retail Interest and Social Media Buzz Explode
Similarly, there may be times when altcoin interest or hype takes flight among the general market or on social media. That can create hype cycles, and market participants may want to get in on the action as altcoins see price appreciation. Hype cycles can happen at any time, and seemingly for any reason, or sometimes no reason at all. And it can be difficult to tell if these will be brief hype bursts, or sustained, broad altcoin seasons.
What Happened in Past Altcoin Seasons?
There are examples of previous altcoin seasons, such as those that occurred during 2017, and again in 2021. Here’s a brief rundown of what happened.
2017
During 2017, there was a rapid and broad altcoin rally that was largely driven by speculative market participants, a slew of project launches, and piles of money entering the crypto markets.[1]
Specifically, regulatory changes in Japan helped fuel the frenzy, and Ethereum took off as what looked like the next Bitcoin, becoming the second-largest crypto on the market. There were also many ICOs, or initial coin offerings that year, and Bitcoin’s price also reached a high point (which it would eclipse in later years).
Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash were some of the top-performing altcoins that year, too.
2021
Similarly, 2021[2] saw another altcoin season and huge swell in interest in the crypto markets. There were several things happening, including a boom in NFTs and meme coins, much of which redirected capital and resources away from Bitcoin and into altcoins or other crypto-related projects.
This was all occurring during the pandemic, as well, which drove lots of speculative buying and selling all while the crypto ecosystem itself was becoming more sophisticated and entering the mainstream.
Some top performing altcoins in 2021 included Shiba Inu, Dogecoin, Solana, and Polygon.[3]
Lessons Learned from Historical Rallies
What sorts of takeaways are to be had from previous altcoin seasons? There can be a lot to digest, and the history of Bitcoin prices — which in of themselves have been volatile — play a role. But perhaps the overriding lessons are that the crypto markets can be and often are driven by hype and intense speculation. There can be outside events that also play a factor (such as global health emergencies and softening government stances toward crypto), but by and large, the markets can be difficult to predict and make sense of.
With all of this in mind, it can be good to keep risk in mind. Over short time periods, assets, be they crypto holdings, stocks, or precious metals, can lose value. The market is volatile, and things are always changing.
How to Approach Altcoin Season
With all of this in mind, how can crypto market participants best approach altcoin seasons, assuming they feel that one is waiting in the wings? Here are a few things to help keep you grounded.
Avoiding the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) Trap
While altcoins may be used as a tool for transactions, or as a store of value, or even as a means of generating passive crypto income, it’s dangerous to get lured into the assumption that they could continue to appreciate. That can lead to making poor decisions due to FOMO, or the fear of missing out. Cryptocurrencies prices are historically highly volatile, and that should be taken into account during altcoin seasons, as well.
Perhaps the best thing to do in these cases is to keep your head on your shoulders, remember that you have a financial plan (or may want to create one), and that any altcoins you may be considering holding are merely one element of that.
Separating Market Hype From a Project’s Real Utility
Similarly, you may be hearing or seeing a lot of crypto hype about altcoin seasons or related to a specific crypto project. It may be helpful to try and understand where it’s coming from. You may want to ask whether there’s really a “there” there, and do some research before deciding to buy, sell, or hold altcoins whose potential promise could be unfounded or that could even turn out to be a crypto scam or rug-pull.
Volatility
The crypto market is volatile, and that volatility can occur during any “season,” not just “altcoin season.” It can be a good idea to try and keep that in mind when navigating the crypto space.
The Takeaway
Altcoin season describes a time period when altcoins steadily outperform Bitcoin. There are a few ways to try to determine altcoin season, but it remains impossible to predict. Basically, you’ll usually know it when you’re in it. And when an altcoin season does occur, it’s important to navigate it carefully. Always researching options carefully can help ensure they align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
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FAQ
How can you tell if altcoin season has started?
There may not be a good or surefire way to determine if an altcoin season has started, at least not until some time has passed and there’s data to digest to help determine that. However, you can look for certain signs, such as a cooling Bitcoin rally, as a precursor or indicator that the altcoin market could rally.
How long do altcoin seasons usually last?
There’s really no telling for sure how long an altcoin season will last, but historically, they’ve lasted for one or two months, and perhaps a little longer.
Are all altcoins likely to rise during an altseason?
Depending on several factors, some altcoins are probably more likely to see value appreciation during an altcoin season than others.
What role does institutional investment play in altcoin seasons?
If institutional investors plow a project with a bunch of capital or make a huge investment in a particular altcoin, that could spark an altcoin season as interest rises in that altcoin, and also related ones. But there’s no guarantee that would necessarily happen.
Which indicators signal the end of an altcoin season?
One indicator that an altcoin season is near or at its end is a rally in Bitcoin prices, signalling Bitcoin may be returning to its dominant position.
Article Sources
- Finance Magnates. Bitcoin and Altcoins in 2017: the Year in Review.
- CoinMarketCap. Altcoins in 2021: The Good, the Bad, and the Dog.
- World Economic Forum. This is how the top cryptocurrencies performed in 2021.
Photo credit: iStock/Prostock-Studio
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